Japan - Miyazawa family of 4 murdered, Setagaya, Tokyo, 30 Dec 2000 #3

[Cryptic]

but I couldn’t comment on whether you could sneak in or out of there undetected because I’m not very knowledgable about the security beyond that.

That level of security is probably directly proportionate to how close a fence hopper is to a flight line and a fatal interaction with an aircraft either landing or taking off. Security would also be inclined to stop and question people who obviously (key word) don't belong.

But....other than being around a flight line or obviously not belonging, once somebody is "in", they are not likely to be bothered by security so long as they blend in.

 

[fridaybaker]

As you stated, it is more than a little ironic.

I believe the source of the irony could be that the gate security is mostly designed to deter easy comings and goings by 'Merican citizens- not foreign spies. Military life can feature very long hours away from home. They pay is not great. So.... Uncle Sam makes up for it by providing as many benefits as he can.

One of the benefits is providing living conditions for servicemen and their families that are safe, stable and secure as possible. Thus, the gates deter alot of citizen riff raff inclined to disturb base tranquility in big ways and in small ways. These same people are not inclined to hop the fence, then walk (gasp) to the main part of the base.

Growing up on bases was largely like growing up in "Maybury". That does not mean that there were never problems. Some bases can have the population of a mid size city and have all associated the problems. But.... gates and active enforcement really dialed down the frequency of those problems. A good quality of life then leads to more re-enlistments- especially amongst Servicemen with families.

Thanks for that perspective, Cryptic! I do know that years ago, non-service folks could easily drive onto this base. It's only been in the last few years that there's been a bit of a crackdown on security. We can still enter, but you have to drive to a building a few blocks from the main gate, take a number and.....wait. Then you have a little "sit-down", wherein you state your business (which is checked by phone with those of the said business). Then, there's an online background check.

Next up: Main gate, where your vehicle is checked and you receive your pass. I guess I was a little nonplussed that I had to spend 45 minutes to merely access the base, in order to get a cat (yes, I got a cat there) when it seems that about 90% of the base is surrounded by chain link fence.

I'm glad you had that experience growing up. There are so many, many downsides to military life, at least having a bit of "Maybury" is a nice counterpoint. The base here (actually a "post") is also incredibly beautiful, and in the fall it's spectacular: Huge, old trees in firey autumn glory, and rows upon rows of old, red brick houses, punctuated by verdant lawn and streams. Truly a sight to behold! It almost makes me wish I were in the military, just to live in the prettiest part of town, by far.

 

[Incoherent]

That level of security is probably directly proportionate to how close a fence hopper is to a flight line and a fatal interaction with an aircraft either landing or taking off. Security would also be inclined to stop and question people who obviously (key word) don't belong.

But....other than being around a flight line or obviously not belonging, once somebody is "in", they are not likely to be bothered by security so long as they blend in.

I am quite shocked to hear how lax it is/was. For some reason I assumed security would be incredibly stringent (I was imagining spotlights and helicopters like in a movie) but I suppose we are talking of a case that even predates 9/11.

I am aiming to go to the next Yokota AFB Friendship Day in May ‘25 just out of pure curiosity to have a look around and also because I align with the theory that the base is involved somehow.
I also believe Ogikubo plays a part in all of this as previously discussed with Nic but that’s for another post once I gather links and type it up.

 

[AppleTreeGreen]

Interesting points, @Cryptic. Just to add that I've spoken to several people who lived on various USAF bases in Japan who mentioned sneaking off-base in their youth. (This includes an associate of my POI). They mentioned heading off-base both on-foot and driving off-base. So, yes. Sounds entirely possible.

I hope I am not making you a repeat a point from earlier, but I was wondering in your opinion if the perp or your POI owned or had access to a car and used it to commit the crime what do you think they did with it afterwards?

For example, if they left Japan shortly after the murders did they bring the car with them or did they give it away? If they gave it away or sold it, to whom and did the new owners keep records or pictures of it that could somehow be helpful to LE? Or did they throw it out or give it to a scrap yard or such?

One of the main reasons I ask is because sometimes cars can retain forensic evidence, like blood, hair fibers or soil from the scene trapped in the tire. After all these years likely the car and evidence has been destroyed but perhaps it’s identify could jog potential witnesses’ or nearby pedestrians memories? Or LE in Japan or abroad could review car registries, shipping orders or bills of sales to possibly also identify the killer or track his behavior following the murders? Also, my family still owns my brother’s sports car from 2000 and my cousins’s Porsche from the 80s so there may be a small, very small chance, they kept it?

 

[FacelessPodcast]

I hope I am not making you a repeat a point from earlier, but I was wondering in your opinion if the perp or your POI owned or had access to a car and used it to commit the crime what do you think they did with it afterwards?

For example, if they left Japan shortly after the murders did they bring the car with them or did they give it away? If they gave it away or sold it, to whom and did the new owners keep records or pictures of it that could somehow be helpful to LE? Or did they throw it out or give it to a scrap yard or such?

One of the main reasons I ask is because sometimes cars can retain forensic evidence, like blood, hair fibers or soil from the scene trapped in the tire. After all these years likely the car and evidence has been destroyed but perhaps it’s identify could jog potential witnesses’ or nearby pedestrians memories? Or LE in Japan or abroad could review car registries, shipping orders or bills of sales to possibly also identify the killer or track his behavior following the murders? Also, my family still owns my brother’s sports car from 2000 and my cousins’s Porsche from the 80s so there may be a small, very small chance, they kept it?

It's a good question, @AppleTreeGreen. The short answer is that; in the case of my POI, I'm not wholly sure. I think it's quite possible the car stayed behind in Japan (with his family) after he left. More broadly, I would imagine there's no need to scrap the car -- which I can only assume is complex and highly-regulated. Good luck throwing an apple core away on the streets of Tokyo, much less getting your rubbish sorted correctly in an apartment block. No idea how you'd get your car destroyed. Far more likely, I would guess, that they simply sold the car on. All the interviews I did with USAF personnel talked about the second-hand car market. In reality, these cars were fourth and fifth and sixth-hand. But the wear and tear was limited given that ownership would sometimes only be a year or two and not a lot of miles clocked up. There's also a slew of car dealerships that surround the base. Most (if not all) speak English given the proximity of the base and the American default towards car-ownership. You'll see signs outside saying stuff like: AMERICA OK! and whatnot. It's also entirely possible if you wanted to dump a vehicle, you'd just drive it across the way, sell it to Cars 2000, and then simply walk back to base. Of course, those dealerships would keep records. But 20+ years down the line...? Who knows.

But yes, in theory, there is a car still out there somewhere that was driven to Soshigaya Park and back. Given the killer kept his shoes on, despite shedding his own bloody clothes, it's entirely possible that some of the Miyazawa's forensic traces are in and around those pedals to this day, even if on an astronomically minute level. But it's the longest of shots.

 

[SteveL]

Two things from this case that give me the most consternation is the killer's motive, and the actions (lack thereof) from the family next door. I've always felt there's a connection with these two issues. While it may be crass, I mentally refer to is as my "Mike Was A **** (handful) Theory"

Nic's reported that Mikio's coworkers are unwilling to talk about him. TMPD isn't releasing any personal information about Mikio. And, the Irie's are pretty tight lipped. Is this all in an effort to keep from Mikio being victim shamed or blamed?

In regards to the Irie family's silence. Based on Nic's soundproof expert, and common sense, it's safe to assume the family heard more than they reported. I wonder if Mikio occasionally lost his temper, and loud sounds next door weren't 'unheard' of? Maybe they thought it was another family quarrel? Were there previous instances where maybe they intervened with family arguments, and it only further exacerbated the situation?

I'm uncertain of the time frame when the soundproof materials were installed between the homes. However, we know Mikio paid for it. If it was installed after the homes in the area were being sold, and Mikio was going to be selling his/it was going to be torn down....why? Plus, it seems clear it was ineffective. I'm wondering if Mikio installed it as a show of face, out of frustration, to send a message concerning privacy, etc.?

Mikio possibly had "discussions" with whoever was parking their car too close to the home. Was the car owner possibly the POI? Was he parking there to access the park?

The skater angle is one that keeps coming up ad nauseam. However, I wonder if the killer witnessed Mikio arguing with them over the noise? Did Mikio become overtly angry? I've always felt there's 'something" to the skater angle. Obviously, so has TMPD, based on their intense investigations of skaters. But I don't think the killer was necessarily a skater. Based on the proximity of the tennis courts to the skate area in the park, maybe the killer merely witnessed the interaction?

Regardless of how the killer may have been involved with the skater argument, if you combine this with the car issues, you can start to see how some rage and anger might build. Especially in a pubescent teen, and doubly especially one with a military upbringing. To me, it presents a logical motive.

 

[Charlot123]

Two things from this case that give me the most consternation is the killer's motive, and the actions (lack thereof) from the family next door. I've always felt there's a connection with these two issues. While it may be crass, I mentally refer to is as my "Mike Was A **** (handful) Theory"

Nic's reported that Mikio's coworkers are unwilling to talk about him. TMPD isn't releasing any personal information about Mikio. And, the Irie's are pretty tight lipped. Is this all in an effort to keep from Mikio being victim shamed or blamed?

In regards to the Irie family's silence. Based on Nic's soundproof expert, and common sense, it's safe to assume the family heard more than they reported. I wonder if Mikio occasionally lost his temper, and loud sounds next door weren't 'unheard' of? Maybe they thought it was another family quarrel? Were there previous instances where maybe they intervened with family arguments, and it only further exacerbated the situation?

I'm uncertain of the time frame when the soundproof materials were installed between the homes. However, we know Mikio paid for it. If it was installed after the homes in the area were being sold, and Mikio was going to be selling his/it was going to be torn down....why? Plus, it seems clear it was ineffective. I'm wondering if Mikio installed it as a show of face, out of frustration, to send a message concerning privacy, etc.?

Mikio possibly had "discussions" with whoever was parking their car too close to the home. Was the car owner possibly the POI? Was he parking there to access the park?

The skater angle is one that keeps coming up ad nauseam. However, I wonder if the killer witnessed Mikio arguing with them over the noise? Did Mikio become overtly angry? I've always felt there's 'something" to the skater angle. Obviously, so has TMPD, based on their intense investigations of skaters. But I don't think the killer was necessarily a skater. Based on the proximity of the tennis courts to the skate area in the park, maybe the killer merely witnessed the interaction?

Regardless of how the killer may have been involved with the skater argument, if you combine this with the car issues, you can start to see how some rage and anger might build. Especially in a pubescent teen, and doubly especially one with a military upbringing. To me, it presents a logical motive.

You know, there may be two independent things happening.

- a killer, because of own issues, is contemplating killing somebody. He doesn’t care whom. He is not that aware of what makes one a successful killer, but intuitively, he finds the best pattern. There is zero connection between him and the family. This I can see.

- he is not that smart to know about DNA, which is slightly against a US school kid (unless he was a profoundly learning disabled person, because they studied DNA at the base school. But I doubt it.)

- I think that maybe he chose Miyazawa’s house for the reason you mentioned. Or at least, it was what guided his choice. He probably had several families in view, but maybe that day, the window was open, or something else.

- Anyhow, for 23 years the ball has been in TMPD corner. And if there are questions to ask of the relatives, it is why they have not become more proactive advocates for DNA testing in Japanese criminology.

 

[fridaybaker]

From Nic's post above:

"I think it's quite possible the car stayed behind in Japan (with his family) after he left."

Well, this answers the biggest stumbling block I've had in regard to the Yakota POI: What would be the likelihood of this kid suffering a signal emotional event, so severe that it triggers murderous rage, within a very short time of his parent being scheduled to be deployed back to the states, especially having had been stationed in Japan for quite a few years. An incredible stroke of luck, serendipity, karma, and kismet all rolled into one for the guy.

More likely, he left. His family didn't. Why didn't I think of this before??? This is why I'm not quitting my day job.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

More likely, he left. His family didn't. Why didn't I think of this before??? This is why I'm not quitting my day job.

RSBM: yes, in the case of my POI; he left Japan pretty shortly after the murders, his parents stayed behind for more than a year. Possibly a couple, I’d have to go back to my research but from memory, yes.

 

[Cryptic]

I am quite shocked to hear how lax it is/was. For some reason I assumed security would be incredibly stringent (I was imagining spotlights and helicopters like in a movie) but I suppose we are talking of a case that even predates 9/11.

Spot lights and helicopters are still the norm for a small number of super secure bases.

But.... in the end, US bases still reflect democratic societies. There are a good number of civilians on them including family members of servicemen and a dazzling variety of contractors. So, Security patrols are accustomed to different types of civilians being present.

That does not mean that base security ignores red flags- unauthorized people in dangerous areas, or people with strange interests in say.... observing sensitive aircraft hangers or maybe, taking photos of submarine repair and replenishment. Likewise, base security can have military centric pet peeves. These include speeding, loitering and aimless "cruising".

But... for people not showing red flags and not blatantly violating pet peeves, military bases can essentially be well ordered civilian towns.

 

[Incoherent]

So just about Ogikubo potentially playing a part.

Ogikubo is a place I used to live from around 2010 and it’s a station minutes from central Tokyo but mostly residential. Its entire shopping area surrounds the train station.
I had seen that the now defunct M/X store that sold the crusher hat, t-shirt, and gloves had a location in Ogikubo and was mentioned on the TMPD website, so I cast my mind back to when I lived there.

When I thought more about it and looked into it I realised that besides the bag and shoes everything the killer had that night was sold in a store at Ogikubo station. A person could visit only the station and purchase almost everything he had:
Hat, t-shirt, gloves - M/X, Ogikubo station
Air tech jacket - Uniqlo, Ogikubo station
Handkerchiefs - Muji, Ogikubo station
Knife - Seiyu, Ogikubo station
Scarf - it had no labels, but as per the TMPD website they mention it looks like a cheap arcade prize. There is Game Apina arcade - Ogikubo station.

So we have 7 items that were definitely sold at Ogikubo station, and 1 item that has a possibility it could be won from an arcade at Ogikubo station.

As for the knife, it was never actually mentioned by the TMPD where it was sold. However, when looking into reports of the man who bought the same knife in the days prior to the murder that they had recently cleared a few years ago, the news channel were attempting to disguise the location they were reporting on but the signage for Seiyu (a department store and supermarket chain) could be seen inside. I then remembered there is also a Seiyu at, again, Ogikubo station. I used to do my weekly shop there.
Apologies it’s hard to see but you can make out the logo on the news report and also what it looks like clearly here:



As for the perfume, well, Ogikubo station again has department stores that sold perfume too. But as perfumes are more of a thing used over a longer period of time it’s likely it could have also been purchased anywhere. The hip bag I am unsure as it was said to be a discount store that sold it. There are several discount stores at Ogikubo station too, and one that sold/sells bags just like it, but I couldn’t pinpoint an exact one that sold the bag.

So, with 7 items being available at that station what is the likelihood the killer frequented it or at the very least did his shopping there for almost that entire outfit plus the knife? It leaves me wondering why, if true, he was at that station and if it had any connection to him or the Miyazawas.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

So just about Ogikubo potentially playing a part.

Ogikubo is a place I used to live from around 2010 and it’s a station minutes from central Tokyo but mostly residential. Its entire shopping area surrounds the train station.
I had seen that the now defunct M/X store that sold the crusher hat, t-shirt, and gloves had a location in Ogikubo and was mentioned on the TMPD website, so I cast my mind back to when I lived there.

When I thought more about it and looked into it I realised that besides the bag and shoes everything the killer had that night was sold in a store at Ogikubo station. A person could visit only the station and purchase almost everything he had:
Hat, t-shirt, gloves - M/X, Ogikubo station
Air tech jacket - Uniqlo, Ogikubo station
Handkerchiefs - Muji, Ogikubo station
Knife - Seiyu, Ogikubo station
Scarf - it had no labels, but as per the TMPD website they mention it looks like a cheap arcade prize. There is Game Apina arcade - Ogikubo station.

So we have 7 items that were definitely sold at Ogikubo station, and 1 item that has a possibility it could be won from an arcade at Ogikubo station.

As for the knife, it was never actually mentioned by the TMPD where it was sold. However, when looking into reports of the man who bought the same knife in the days prior to the murder that they had recently cleared a few years ago, the news channel were attempting to disguise the location they were reporting on but the signage for Seiyu (a department store and supermarket chain) could be seen inside. I then remembered there is also a Seiyu at, again, Ogikubo station. I used to do my weekly shop there.
Apologies it’s hard to see but you can make out the logo on the news report and also what it looks like clearly here:
View attachment 529532
View attachment 529533

As for the perfume, well, Ogikubo station again has department stores that sold perfume too. But as perfumes are more of a thing used over a longer period of time it’s likely it could have also been purchased anywhere. The hip bag I am unsure as it was said to be a discount store that sold it. There are several discount stores at Ogikubo station too, and one that sold/sells bags just like it, but I couldn’t pinpoint an exact one that sold the bag.

So, with 7 items being available at that station what is the likelihood the killer frequented it or at the very least did his shopping there for almost that entire outfit plus the knife? It leaves me wondering why, if true, he was at that station and if it had any connection to him or the Miyazawas.

This is something I’ve talked about with @Incoherent off WS. I think it’s compelling. As well as the excellent catch above, it’s also worth reiterating that the family passed through this area. For lack of a better alternative, it’s the closest thing to a logical crossing of paths imo. Now, it’s arguable that the killer’s items were on sale across the city (at the time of 31 million). And that’s true but so close to the home? It’s a transport interchange and you can travel very easily to it from Yokota AFB, as a side point.

 

[Incoherent]

This is something I’ve talked about with @Incoherent off WS. I think it’s compelling. As well as the excellent catch above, it’s also worth reiterating that the family passed through this area. For lack of a better alternative, it’s the closest thing to a logical crossing of paths imo. Now, it’s arguable that the killer’s items were on sale across the city (at the time of 31 million). And that’s true but so close to the home? It’s a transport interchange and you can travel very easily to it from Yokota AFB, as a side point.

What struck me is that 7 items were all available right at that station. For arguments sake if someone had wanted to buy the exact outfit the killer had all at once, they could’ve gone to Ogikubo and got the lot in one trip. And if not one trip it could mean he frequented that station to hang out and shop, amongst other reasons.
It doesn’t mean he definitely did as you say because all of those items would’ve been available across Tokyo, but to have all of that available right there in one place struck me. And if the Miyazawas did pass through like you say then that could pinpoint a likely crossing of paths.

 

[FacelessPodcast]

What struck me is that 7 items were all available right at that station. For arguments sake if someone had wanted to buy the exact outfit the killer had all at once, they could’ve gone to Ogikubo and got the lot in one trip. And if not one trip it could mean he frequented that station to hang out and shop, amongst other reasons.
It doesn’t mean he definitely did as you say because all of those items would’ve been available across Tokyo, but to have all of that available right there in one place struck me. And if the Miyazawas did pass through like you say then that could pinpoint a likely crossing of paths.

Absolutely. And the chances go up if we consider it a frequent destination for both parties. Certainly, for the Miyazawas it was. And I would assume his outfit was acquired over time, given that some of the items were newer than others. Again, pointing to repeat access.

 

[Eliver]

Hello!

I have registered to the website specifically to contribute to this discussion regarding the Miyazawas.

Some background about my history with this case:
I have discovered this case around November last year and it has become something that even kept me up at night at times.
After some digging I discovered the Faceless Podcast (Nic, thank you very much for your work, it was truly incredible and I'm looking forward for an eventual Season 2), and many other resources.

Although I'm not Japanese I live in Japan, understand and can use the language fluently. I also do not live in Tokyo and I do not know Tokyo very well.
This to say that if anything comes up and some accurate translation is needed, I will be more than happy to contribute, but I can't really say anything about places in Tokyo or routes regarding the case.

Over the last month I have discovered this thread and have read through all 3 threads. Still, it is difficult to remember and keep track of three multi-pages thread so I apologize in advance if I misremember or have some details wrong.

That being said, although I understand that I will not receive a direct answer, I have a strong belief to have discovered who Nic's POI is since it fits with every detail disclosed in the past threads, and except for one detail (I cannot place this person in Yokota's Air Base in 2000, but only in another previous year), I do believe that Nic is on to something and I would like to know if there are any updates on that.
Just to clarify: I'm not asking what the updates are, but only if there are any.

If it's not possible to have an answer, I will understand and I will not insist.

Adhering to the forum's rules, I will not say anything else about this person, also because it seems to me that there are not many information online about him and clearly Nic had other ways to find so many details about him.

I cannot say in any way that the POI is a suspect or can be suspected of anything, but only that the person I have found fits with almost every detail Nic disclosed about his POI.
I believe another user named Incoherent also mentioned to have found something, I wonder if we're are talking about the same man.

Although in this first post I have only talked about the POI, I have actually other things to say about the case (unrelated to the POI), but I don't want to make a wall text and so I will contribute more in the following days.

As no doubt everyone else here, I believe justice for these brutal murders is long due and everyone can make a difference.

Glad to be here.

 

[Incoherent]

Welcome @Eliver, you make the third Japan-based person (to my knowledge) on these threads along with @TokyoSleuth and I, although we’re both Tokyoites.
Looking forward to your contributions here

 

[Eliver]

I'm realizing that my previous post might have been a little too much (meaning, a little too direct about sensitive subjects) and therefore I have decided that unless addressed directly, I will speak no more of it and draw my own conclusions.

Speaking of something different, what I would like to do is contribute to the thread with a couple of observations as well as some questions.

Again, these points may have already been answered or talked about previously, but admittedly it is difficult to keep track of everything after 150+ pages.

1. The killer staying in the house for hours:
I believe that the fact that the killer staying in the house for allegedly a couple of hours was a combination of factors: the spite he had for the family (or rather, what they represented to him) but also because he was wounded.
There are some things backing it up and I would like to know everyone's opinion.
The killer might have expected to kill them and just leave (I mean, I guess we all agree that he went there with the sole intention of murdering them). I strongly agree with Nic's theory that the killer did not use a metro but rather a bycicle, a motorbike or a car. It doesn't make any sense to me that he would go so late at night to murder a family and just casually hope to catch the last train. His wound might have slowed him down and therefore he decided to patch himself up before going back (if I'm not mistaken, the reports have basically confirmed he lost a lot of blood, therefore the wound(s) might have been pretty deep). So, my theory is: of course, the killer didn't have any issue with staying in the house with four corpses, but it seemed to me he purposedly spent time there to rest and his subsequent actions (the feces, the rummaging, the clothes, the ice creams, etc) were because of the wounds (and the blood).

2. The point of entry/leaving:
This has been discussed previously but to me, based on the facts that were presented up until now, there is no doubt that the entry point was not the rear window in the bathroom. Not only it was difficult to reach, but even to squeeze through.
It has been stated in previous pages that the police never confirmed that was the entry/leaving point but rather that it was just accepted as such (perhaps because of the net found on the ground, outside the house? Please correct me if I'm wrong but I do remember the net was removed).
Entering by the head would have meant making a lot of noise by landing in the bathtub, and leaving through it wouldn't make any sense since there were zero clues left by the killer (no blood, no nothing). Yes, he may have attempted to leave from there, but after surveying the situation, he might have changed his mind.
I have two theories on this:
-The window on Rei's room balcony.
-The front door (I know it doesn't make much sense, but please bear with me).

The window on Rei's room balcony.
As Nic also observed, the balcony in Rei's room would seem to be the one that makes the most sense.
However I do have some questions about it. If memory serves me right, by climbing the car it wouldn't have been that difficult to reach the balcony (conversely, it wouldn't be so difficult to leave the same way). But then again: were there any traces left on the top of the car?
I don't recall anyone ever mentioning this when discussing this possible way of entry/leaving.
Did I just miss this detail or nothing was ever found/the police never shared this?
I would find it very weird the killer climbed/landed on the car and left no trace.
Also: was it ever shared by the police if that window was locked or not? This could be so important.

The front door.
Ok, hear me out.
I don't believe this was ever brought up and if it was, I apologize but I really don't remember it.
There was often speculation about the killer being a student of Yasuko's cram school and therefore knowing the house/have a somewhat easy access to it.
Instead, my theory goes in a different direction.

Is it correct that the Miyazawas had a piano?
Is it correct that said piano was in Rei's room?
Was anyone in the house (Yasuko or Mikio, for example) giving piano lessons?
Let's imagine for a moment that one of them were.
Let's also entertain the idea that the killer played the piano and/or was learning how the play the piano.
Could it be that he met the Miyazawas this way? And that because of something he noticed during his time with them triggered him to kill them?
Let's assume that all of the above is correct: the killer knew the house to some extent and would have needed to go upstairs everytime for a piano lesson.
Let's now assume that the killer showed at the front door, Mikio could have known the person and the person might have said something among the lines of "I apologize for barging here so late but I was around and I have an emergency/I need to use the bathroom/I have this problem".
Now let's also imagine that the killer goes inside, Mikio locks the door once more and the killer, with the excuse of using the bathroom starts by killing Rei.

I understand that there are a lot of ifs and buts in the above reconstruction, but the entry and leaving point is something that has always bothered me.
Of course my theory is not bullet proof: why would Mikio lock the door again if it was just for something quick? Why would the killer go upstairs and kill Rei instead of dispatching Mikio right when he would lock the door so that the major threat in the house is eliminated? One could say that by going upstairs and killing Rei in silence he would have still have the element of surprise when going back down on Mikio, but then again: the reconstruction suggests that after strangling Rei, he fought with Mikio on the stairs. But strangling does not necessarily produce noises, could it be that Mikio didn't hear anything but rather just went upside to check on his unexpected guest? At that point, the killer might have resorted to his original plan: the knife.

If this would be correct it could also explain why they didn't manage to track him down: a random guy taking private piano lessons and only known by the Miyazawas themselves and with only unofficial contacts with them (it doesn't take much nor particular ways of communication to just randomly get in touch with someone that posts around an announcement stating they give piano lessons).
My imagination even flies further: the fact the killer took just a small amount of the money in the house and left even more behind would mean something like "Take that you fool, I'm gonna take back the money I wasted on your stupid piano lessons".

Again, just a theory.

3. The Jizo statue
Compared to the two points above, this is minor, but to me, the all statue thing always seemed completely irrelevant.
I always had the impression that the statue was linked to the murders, but not for the reason most people believe.
What I mean is: I think the statue was indeed left not far from the crime scene because of the murders, but just by someone that was paying respect/homage to the victims, especially the kids since the statue's meaning.
It would seem absurd to me the killer would go out of his way to go back near the scene and carry something so heavy, nor that someone would do that in his stead.
Of course I believe the TMPD did the right thing when including it in the investigation and in the murder paper found online, but I also think it doesn't need all that attention.

That being said, thank you all for reading all of this.
I have many more thoughts to share but I will stop for now and wait for everyone's input.
I'm eager to hear your opinions.

 

[Eliver]

Small addendum to my piano theory: what if the killer was the piano instructor to Nina or Rei?
It wouldn't change much about the reconstruction I have imagined if not within the things he would say to Mikio "I'm sorry to barge here this late but I forgot something over the piano and I have urgent need of it. Since the New Year's Holidays are approaching I might not have another time to collect them." (Or, if like suggested in the past he really did left the country/planned to, and the Miyazawas knew, the more reason to have the need to ask to collect the things in such an usual moment).