Great post, Jade! Thank you
(I actually wrote one of those articles you link to a few years back). I've seen many of these before and I guess the questions I'm still left with going through them again:
*If the killer's motive is money and goods, why are the bank cards left in the house and simply spread about? We know he spread many different items about, why didn't he take the bank cards? And if his motive was money, why did he leave any behind in the house (particularly because I think there was some prominently displayed near the computer, I believe).
*If the clothes are washed in a manner that is not common in Japan then how much does this really tell them? If we know the clothes came from Japan but the water used to wash them was uncommon in Japan how can the conclusion be a foreigner? Obviously, I don't discount this at all. If I'm a betting man, I would say that the killer most likely has ties to other countries. But I'm curious as to why they think cleaning the clothes in a Korean way makes him Korean but buying clothes in Japan doesn't make him Japanese?
*The problem I've had with articles / videos (particularly in English) is that they blend in stories about eyewitnesses and heated arguments and the like into the known facts. Motorcycle gangs and heated arguments are just simply never substantiated anywhere else. That's not to say none of that happened or that the police didn't look into these elements. Just that I don't want to take Listverse or Unresolved Podcast at their word if none of the major Japanese newspapers have reported on it.
*The detail about the intercom is
fantastic -- I don't know how I missed that. I had always wondered about that. If the grandmother couldn't get through on the phone, that would mean the killer HAD cut the phone line. But then if that was true, how did he go online at 1:18am? (Assuming their connection was dial-up and looking at a timeline of internet usage in Japan it seems like December 2000 was too early for broadband). If she never calls them on the phone and simply goes over to the house at 10:00am the next morning then that solves that problem. However, one caveat: if this article is based on that book it mentions, it's worth saying it's written by a guy who never uses his real name. And he claims, spectacularly, to have solved the case himself. So hopefully the detail about the intercom isn't coming from him but is coming from
Japan Today.
*As for your final points, I think it's very probable the killer had observed the family / the children. A park would make a good spot to do this from as it's full of hiding places, a man wouldn't stand out in a park just walking around the way he might if it was a quiet residential back street.
*Agree that the silhouette / mannikin gives the impression of a tall or imposing man yet we know our killer was only 5 ft 6.
*I've never seen anything via the local press or TMPD that substantiated arguing, whether inside the home or outside with skateboarders / gang members.
*Until the TMPD comment on exactly where the sand was from, this point will remain unclear. But I DO know for a fact that sand can be identified by its geography pretty accurately these days.
*RE: the Korean cleaning water. They say it's uncommon. But I suppose that doesn't mean it's impossible for it to be local.
*I definitely agree that it's likely he watched them prior to the murders.