Well, ya know, if organized crime is involved in this, then it might be decomp in the trunk but not Caylees and maybe Casey really doesn't know where Caylee is and is truly scared. Seems to me Casey hung around with some questionable characters so anything is possible. And maybe the LE Tony lied about knowing Casey because he knew she was tied into organized crime and knew his job would be at stake over that. If Casey was that close to organized crime then having lots of LE friends/boyfriends might have been a planned thing---you know the old saying, "keep your friends close but keep your enemies closer" .... OR she planned on using an LE boyfriend to blackmail in order to keep her safe and out of a mess but it didn't work out that way.
I can come up with a hundred theories!