chicken fried
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Concerning the "Floating Bike Theory"
I did some research. The Schwinn Cutter bicycle weighs about 27 pounds. This is considered to be a heavy bike by bike enthusiasts. One review of the bike described it as a tank. The recovered bicycle was said to have a damaged rear rim, so we could assume the tire was flat as well. Could a single tire keep a 27 pound bike afloat?
This calls for an experiment or someone with knowledge of bouyancy.
It was hard to find, surprisingly, but I found the weight for the Schwinn Madison, Mickey's bike = 22.5 pounds.