Lloyd Welch is Person of Interest
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Another candidate for LHM sketch subject...
Below is a copy of the sketch of a long haired man that police say was an individual known to be a rapist and who was involved in an incident in Wheaton Maryland in 1975. Also included is a 1977 photo of Lloyd Welch, the recently named Person of Interest in the Lyon Case.
http://www.mymcpnews.com/2014/02/11...apping-of-lyon-sisters-others-victims-sought/
The next Link shows a 1982 mug shot of Timothy Buzbee, AKA the Aspen Hill Rapist who has been convicted of numerous rapes, kidnappings, and other crimes between 1977 and 1983. He actually lived in Aspen Hill in 1975, just 4 miles North of Wheaton Plaza. He has a thread in this topic area. Note his resemblance to the recently released sketch.
Buzbee Indicted on Rape Charges - Connected Communities Newswire
Below is a copy of the sketch of a long haired man that police say was an individual known to be a rapist and who was involved in an incident in Wheaton Maryland in 1975. Also included is a 1977 photo of Lloyd Welch, the recently named Person of Interest in the Lyon Case.
http://www.mymcpnews.com/2014/02/11...apping-of-lyon-sisters-others-victims-sought/
The next Link shows a 1982 mug shot of Timothy Buzbee, AKA the Aspen Hill Rapist who has been convicted of numerous rapes, kidnappings, and other crimes between 1977 and 1983. He actually lived in Aspen Hill in 1975, just 4 miles North of Wheaton Plaza. He has a thread in this topic area. Note his resemblance to the recently released sketch.
Buzbee Indicted on Rape Charges - Connected Communities Newswire
SharetheLight
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I do not see the resemblance. The eyes are very different. Buzbee has close small eyes and the sketched LHM has big wide eyes. The hair pattern in the mustache is different. I just don't see it.
The top image is of LHM the bottom image is Buzbee's 1982 mugshot.
Motherof5
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I do not see the resemblance. The eyes are very different. Buzbee has close small eyes and the sketched LHM has big wide eyes. The hair pattern in the mustache is different. I just don't see it. The top image is of LHM the bottom image is Buzbee's 1982 mugshot.
I agree and in every photo that I've ever seen of Buzbee,he's wearing glasses.
Lloyd Lee Welch: His Maryland record
Here is what Maryland Judiciary Search shows for Lloyd Lee Welch regarding legal charges. In all, not a very impressive record. His earliest charges shown appear in January of 1978. These are adult charges. Juvenile charges - if he had any - would have been sealed.
In the criminal charge record of Prince Georges County, he filed a plea of not guilty by reason of insanity and the court ordered that he be examined to substantiate that plea. It is therefor, likely that a 1979 Psychiatric Report exists in the public records.
-------------------------------------
A 1988 Tax Lien case in Prince Georges County:
CAL8802911 Welch, Lloyd L Defendant Prince George's County Circuit Court CIVIL CLOSEDS 02/25/1988 ST OF MD VS WELCH
Circuit Court for Prince George's County - Civil System
Case Number:CAL88-02911
Case Description:ST OF MD VS WELCH
Case Type:Lien/Judgment
Filing Date:02/25/1988
Case Status:Case Closed Statistically
Defendant/Respondent Information
Defendant Party No.:2
Name: Alyene Welch
Defendant Party No.:1
Name: Lloyd L Welch
--------------------
From 1981 thru 1982: Criminal Charges of Offenses which took place in Prince Georges County, MD.
Note that he pled Insanity in the full records and went for mental evaluations.
Also note that there were multiple charges, only three of which went to court.
Record indicates Lloyd Welch DOB as December 1957.
CT811496 Welch, Lloyd L 12/1957 Defendant Prince George's County Circuit Court CRIMINAL ACTIVE 02/23/1998 WELCH, LLOYD LEE
Court System:Circuit Court for Prince George's County - Criminal System
Case Number:CT81-1496
Case Description:Welch, Lloyd Lee
Case Type:Criminal Appeal
Filing Date:09/30/1981
Name: Lloyd Lee Welch
Address: 4714 Baltimore Ave
City: HyattsvilleState:MD
Charge and Disposition Information
Charge No: 1
Charge: Robbery w/Dw
Charge Code: 27-488
Offense Date: 11/01/1986
Disposition: Nolle Pros
Disposition Date: 04/13/1982
Charge No: 6
Charge: Burglary/1st Deg/Dwllng/Crim
Charge Code: 27-29
Offense Date: 11/01/1986
Disposition: Guilty
Disposition Date: 03/03/1982
Charge No: 9
Charge: Assault And Battery
Charge Code: CL021
Offense Date: 11/01/1986
Disposition: Guilty
Disposition Date: 03/03/1982
------------------------
Charges filed in January 1978 for Breaking and Entery and theft in Montgomery County, MD. Note that there was no plea or outcome listed, although the case was considered closed. This might be the breaking and entering/burglary incident mentioned as having taken place in Kensington, MD but the website does not state the location.
20509C Welch, Lloyd Lee M Jr. Defendant Montgomery County Circuit Court INDICTMENT CLOSED 01/13/1978
Circuit Court for Montgomery County - Criminal System
Case Number: 20509C Sub Type: INDICTMENT
Date Filed: 01/13/1978
Name: WELCH, LLOYD LEE M JR.
(Each Charge is listed separately)
Count No: 1
Charge Description: HOUSEBREAKING/STATUTORY NIGHTTIME
Citation Number: Plea:
Count No: 2
Charge Description: LARCENY $100 OR MORE
Citation Number: Plea:
-----------------------
A Traffic violation from 1979. Note that the record shows Welch's DOB as December 1952. He had no drivers license in 1979. Note that he failed to show for court and the case is still listed as "Active".
0000004479046 Welch, Lloyd Lee 12/1952 Defendant Rockville District Court Traffic ACTIVE CASE 03/06/1979
DISTRICT COURT FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY (ROCKVILLE) - TRAFFIC SYSTEM
Citation Number: 0000004479046
Case Status:ACTIVE CASE
Violation Date: 03/06/1979 Violation Time: 06:15 PM
Violation County: MONTGOMERY COUNTY (ROCKVILLE)
WELCH, LLOYD LEE
Address:18407 LOSTKNIFE CIR #202
City: GAITHERSBURG
State:MD
Zip Code: 20760
Race:WHITE,CAUCASIAN,ASIATIC INDIAN,ARAB
Sex:MHeight:509
Weight:165
DOB:12/1952
Charge Description: DRIVING WITHOUT LICENSE
Location Stopped: LOST KNIFE CIR
Fine: 250
Vehicle Tag: ECG856
State: MD
Vehicle Description: 77PONT03
Disposition InformationPlea:
Disposition: FAILURE TO APPEAR
Disposition Date: 06/21/1979
Sentence Date: 06/21/1979
Sentence Time: Yrs:00Mos:00Days:000
Related Person Information
Name:SIAVIN, EDWARD K
Connection:WITNESS FOR STATE
Address:2350 RESEARCH BLVD
City: ROCKVILLE
State:MD Zip
Code:20850
Here is what Maryland Judiciary Search shows for Lloyd Lee Welch regarding legal charges. In all, not a very impressive record. His earliest charges shown appear in January of 1978. These are adult charges. Juvenile charges - if he had any - would have been sealed.
In the criminal charge record of Prince Georges County, he filed a plea of not guilty by reason of insanity and the court ordered that he be examined to substantiate that plea. It is therefor, likely that a 1979 Psychiatric Report exists in the public records.
-------------------------------------
A 1988 Tax Lien case in Prince Georges County:
CAL8802911 Welch, Lloyd L Defendant Prince George's County Circuit Court CIVIL CLOSEDS 02/25/1988 ST OF MD VS WELCH
Circuit Court for Prince George's County - Civil System
Case Number:CAL88-02911
Case Description:ST OF MD VS WELCH
Case Type:Lien/Judgment
Filing Date:02/25/1988
Case Status:Case Closed Statistically
Defendant/Respondent Information
Defendant Party No.:2
Name: Alyene Welch
Defendant Party No.:1
Name: Lloyd L Welch
--------------------
From 1981 thru 1982: Criminal Charges of Offenses which took place in Prince Georges County, MD.
Note that he pled Insanity in the full records and went for mental evaluations.
Also note that there were multiple charges, only three of which went to court.
Record indicates Lloyd Welch DOB as December 1957.
CT811496 Welch, Lloyd L 12/1957 Defendant Prince George's County Circuit Court CRIMINAL ACTIVE 02/23/1998 WELCH, LLOYD LEE
Court System:Circuit Court for Prince George's County - Criminal System
Case Number:CT81-1496
Case Description:Welch, Lloyd Lee
Case Type:Criminal Appeal
Filing Date:09/30/1981
Name: Lloyd Lee Welch
Address: 4714 Baltimore Ave
City: HyattsvilleState:MD
Charge and Disposition Information
Charge No: 1
Charge: Robbery w/Dw
Charge Code: 27-488
Offense Date: 11/01/1986
Disposition: Nolle Pros
Disposition Date: 04/13/1982
Charge No: 6
Charge: Burglary/1st Deg/Dwllng/Crim
Charge Code: 27-29
Offense Date: 11/01/1986
Disposition: Guilty
Disposition Date: 03/03/1982
Charge No: 9
Charge: Assault And Battery
Charge Code: CL021
Offense Date: 11/01/1986
Disposition: Guilty
Disposition Date: 03/03/1982
------------------------
Charges filed in January 1978 for Breaking and Entery and theft in Montgomery County, MD. Note that there was no plea or outcome listed, although the case was considered closed. This might be the breaking and entering/burglary incident mentioned as having taken place in Kensington, MD but the website does not state the location.
20509C Welch, Lloyd Lee M Jr. Defendant Montgomery County Circuit Court INDICTMENT CLOSED 01/13/1978
Circuit Court for Montgomery County - Criminal System
Case Number: 20509C Sub Type: INDICTMENT
Date Filed: 01/13/1978
Name: WELCH, LLOYD LEE M JR.
(Each Charge is listed separately)
Count No: 1
Charge Description: HOUSEBREAKING/STATUTORY NIGHTTIME
Citation Number: Plea:
Count No: 2
Charge Description: LARCENY $100 OR MORE
Citation Number: Plea:
-----------------------
A Traffic violation from 1979. Note that the record shows Welch's DOB as December 1952. He had no drivers license in 1979. Note that he failed to show for court and the case is still listed as "Active".
0000004479046 Welch, Lloyd Lee 12/1952 Defendant Rockville District Court Traffic ACTIVE CASE 03/06/1979
DISTRICT COURT FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY (ROCKVILLE) - TRAFFIC SYSTEM
Citation Number: 0000004479046
Case Status:ACTIVE CASE
Violation Date: 03/06/1979 Violation Time: 06:15 PM
Violation County: MONTGOMERY COUNTY (ROCKVILLE)
WELCH, LLOYD LEE
Address:18407 LOSTKNIFE CIR #202
City: GAITHERSBURG
State:MD
Zip Code: 20760
Race:WHITE,CAUCASIAN,ASIATIC INDIAN,ARAB
Sex:MHeight:509
Weight:165
DOB:12/1952
Charge Description: DRIVING WITHOUT LICENSE
Location Stopped: LOST KNIFE CIR
Fine: 250
Vehicle Tag: ECG856
State: MD
Vehicle Description: 77PONT03
Disposition InformationPlea:
Disposition: FAILURE TO APPEAR
Disposition Date: 06/21/1979
Sentence Date: 06/21/1979
Sentence Time: Yrs:00Mos:00Days:000
Related Person Information
Name:SIAVIN, EDWARD K
Connection:WITNESS FOR STATE
Address:2350 RESEARCH BLVD
City: ROCKVILLE
State:MD Zip
Code:20850
Motherof5
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I can't say that it's impressive but crime doesn't impress me. He has multiple convictions for sex offenses against young girls...he's evil..LE says he was at the mall when Kate and Sheila were there. They have very good reason for looking at this guy.
Thank you for your comments. You make some great observations.
Regarding any shoplifting charges, these would appear in the Maryland Judiciary Record if the person were an adult at the time and if the charges actually were submitted to the court. Even if they were later dropped, there would be a record. I could not find a record for any Maryland charges earlier than 1978 on Welch.
However, depending on when his birthday was (various records have it as December of 1956, 1957 or 1952), he might have been a juvenile at the time and thus, such a charge would be in a sealed file.
Another factor to consider is that Security Guards did not have the authority to arrest anyone UNLESS they were legally deputized. This was not common in 1975. Uniformed security guards might have been hired and trained by the Mall Security Manager or, very possibly, they may have been contracted from a large Security Services Company, such as Pinkerton's. In any case, they were not (in 1975) police officers.
This is not to say that security guards could not approach and address someone acting inappropriately in the mall. In fact, they may very well have spoken with a long haired person following or bothering young girls. That sort of incident would/should have been recorded in the guard's daily report sheet. And such a report might still be in existance.
I agree with you regarding the isolated parking area immediately behind Wards at the far West end of the mall. It was at the point where the short path from the end of Faulkner Drive crossed the Mall's Perimeter road and a perfect choke point for anyone watching children or teens arriving at the mall or leaving the mall to walk to their home in Kensington.
I have always felt that this would have been the best place for someone to attempt an abduction - and it may have been an integral part of such a plan. That scenario, however, would almost have required that the perpetrator have a motor vehicle.
If for any reason, an abduction could not be carried out in that small isolated parking lot, a back-up plan would be for him to simply drive out the Perimeter road to University Blvd, turn left and then left again onto either Drumm Avenue, Hobson Street, or St. Paul Road in an attempt to intercept his chosen victim somewhere in Kensington.
I have mentioned in other posts that the intersection of McComas and Drumm Ave would have also been a good choke point at which to wait.
I have never disputed the fact that Welch is a dirtbag and evil. I was simply stating the facts of his adult criminal record in Maryland. His juvenile record and any mental health records would be interesting to see.
Note that the Maryland Judicial records conflict with what MCP has released regarding his birthday. Their press briefing stated his DOB as December of 1956, while these records indicate that it was December 1957 and December 1952.
To chronologically summarize the above summary:
--------------
In late 1977 or early 1978 (charges filed January 1978) Welch was arrested and charged with Breaking into a House at night time and stealing an item or items valued at over $100. That inditement was closed with no plea or finding of guilt.
In 1979, Welch was arrested and charged with driving a motor vehicle without a license. He was fined $250 for that offense, but failed to appear in court.
In 1981, Welch was arrested in Prince Georges County, MD on numerous (at least nine) charges of which only three went to trial. These were:
Charge 1. Robbery with a deadly weapon. This charge was not prosecuted (Nolle Pros.) for some reason in April of 1982. At that time, Welch was already in prison on the following two charges.
Charge 3. First Degree Burglary of a Dwelling. Guilty
Charge 9. Assault and Battery. Guilty.
Significantly, Welch had pled Not Guilty by reason of Insanity to all of his charges, and the court required a Psycological Examination before proceeding with the charges. He was subsequently tried and convicted. That Psycological Report should be looked at by investigators.
Welch remained in prison until mid 1984 as a sentence for those two convictions.
Welch last appeared in the Maryland Jucicial system as a defendant in a tax lien civil case which was subsequently satisfied and closed.
While I vaguely knew of this case, when the new person of interest, Welch, was announced in the paper, I was surprised to find that for the last 15 years about twice a week I jogged past the victims house then up Drumm Avenue to the plaza. With the exception of a short cut through the woods , a shortcut now largely covered by new houses, I was following the same route as the girls and likely Welch because its an easy way to get from Kensington to the plaza (now an indoor mall).
Before the new houses were built, the about 100 yards by 100 yard woods on Drumm Avenue next to Kensington Nursing and Rehab Center would have been a good spot for kids up to no good to hang out, smoke cigarettes or pot, drink, unwrap shoplifted items, make out with girlfriends and I suspect (just a guess) that Welch sometime took breaks in the woods, if for nothing other than to relieve himself.
At age 18 without a car or any prospects, Welch strikes me as someone above said unimpressive or a loser. At age 12, 13, or 14, I might have on occasion been up to no-good, out of sight of adults, in some woods (I grew up 8 miles away). But by age 18, I and all of my friends that had any prospects had cars, part time jobs, and were in college. Welch seems like he never grew up.
Frankly, without a car or a house of his own, Welch strikes me as so unimpressive that I cant see how he would have had the resources to pull of a kidnapping, much less a double kidnapping. A few years later, he did not have the $250 to pay a ticket for driving without a license or enough on the ball to have a drivers license. I cant see him as a mastermind. Maybe he was lucky to get away with some crimes, but he is not smart.
What I can easily see happening is that Welch ran into the two girls on Drumm Ave or the woods, and was able to talk them into a smoke or drink. The details of Welchs other crimes are not that public, for the privacy of the victims I assume, but it sounds like Welch like to seduce his victims over time and had enough social skills to do this with easily impressed kids. Once a victim is talked into doing something illegal such as drugs or underage drinking, a victim is less likely to go to authorities. Welch may have made some unwanted advances and something went wrong or he just lost his temper.
Accidents do happen and accidentally (in a crime) killing someone does happen, but killing two people would likely only be done to kill a witness. Perhaps one girl said, I am going to tell. Or one girl may have just started to cry and Welch hit her to shut her up. Still killing two people does take some effort.
I am about the same age as Welch, four or so years younger (or slightly more depending on his date or birth with has been reported inconsistently) . At the time in the 70s, DNA evidence was not something anyone or any criminal worried about. But even to young kids, getting rid of the body was known as something to do to avoid a murder charge, as in the Jimmy Hoffa case.
But if Welch did not have the resources (car, house or private location) to plan an advance kidnapping, he would have problems scraping up the resources (just a car, gasoline and shovel) on an hours notice to get rid of two bodies.
My guess is that if something went wrong and a not-so bright Welch found himself with two dead bodies to get rid of, he either stumbled on some way to get rid of the bodies, had help (very few except a close family member would help get rid of two bodies) or somehow got a car and loaded the bodies into a car on Drumm Ave.
At first Welch may have spent five minutes covering up the bodies with leaves and walked away panicked as fast as he could.
Walking away to Kensington (alternatively he could have walked back to the mall) in a half hour or so he might have come up with a plan to get rid of the bodies. At this point Welch would NOT have known if anyone had seen him looking at the girl (or talking to the girls which as far as I know nobody at the mall reported seeing him do). At this point, Welch would NOT know that there were other red herrings/suspect such as Tape Recorder Man who would draw attention away from him.
I dont fault the police for not focusing on Welch at the time, since at the time he was not a known sex criminal, if the police even knew his name at the time; the police may have only known his drawn picture. Even now Welch does not have a history of murder so he is not the perfect match. I imagine the police were interviewing and ruling out every other known sex criminal in the area.
Welch is not that bright , but it did not take that much to hotwire a car in 70s which would include many cars built in the 60s. Likewise, Wright may have found some hole or other spot a half-mile or a mile away that he could have dumped the bodies in. It would have been difficult to carry even a light body more than a mile or two, both physically and without being observed. As I have jogged parts of the route, without a good bag or backpack, it would be hard to carry even a kids body. Although at the time with fewer houses, I think one could have walked down Drum Ave, across Plyers Mill Road and to downtown Kensington/the railroad tracks without being noticed. There may have been some dumpsters in slightly industrial/retail Kensington that a body could have been dumped in. Police do claim to have checked (some/all?) dumpsters (how soon after a couple of days?)
Welch would have access to the stores back at the mall or in Kensington to buy or shoplift bags or a small shovel. Likewise, it might have been possible to steal a shovel. I suspect that as an opportunist thief , Welch was keeping his eyes open for things to steal most of the time.
Alternatively Welch could have dug a shallow grave in the woods or creek bed, and was just lucky that the grave was not discovered. I am not sure how large the nursing home was in the 70s, but in addition to being uphill, I think it would have been hard for him to walk past it unnoticed. It is hard to dig a hole without leaving noticeable dirt, but not all of the searchers were trained. Even today in similar woods in March, there are not many places to dig without being observed from a backyard or road. I think the creek bed a few feet down below the other land is the only place to dig mostly unobserved, but there may have been other out-of-view areas of the woods in the 1970s.
I would not put total faith in dogs trying to follow a scent a few days after dozens of human searchers, but I think the dogs lost the scent near a creek, a very small creek (one foot wide) that goes under Drumm Ave. There is a larger creek it runs into 150 feet away on the other side of Drumm Ave. This would suggest being loaded into a car or walking down the road? Or I dont know where the dogs accurately or inaccurately lost the scent.
I am not sure if there were any good places to dump a body on Welchs walking-the-train-tracks route, but if Welch stumbles on a hole that looked like a pre-dug grave to him, he might have moved the bodies (with difficulty.)
But in any case, even if the bodies were found, it seems unlikely that any DNA evidence useful in conviction could be found. There is only a slight chance a car that Welch had access to or stole in the 70s still exists today and only a minute chance DNA could be obtained.
Well these have been my thoughts as I jogged by the last month. Any comments or other ideas? The best case might be just if the state of Delaware keeps a close eye on him or a victim in another of cases comes forward. Of course even for a child molester, Welch is innocent of murder until proven guilty. As with other persons-of-interest identified over the years, there seem to be a small number of violent criminals or just odd characters (Tape Recorder Man) near the mall (or any mall with thousands of visitors), so I am not above 50-50 that it was Welch.
I doubt Welch wants to talk to the police to clear his name since anything he says will be used against him. No lawyer would tell Welch to talk to the police. but he might want to if offered immunity (for his testimony only) just to not be seen as a murder as opposed to a child rapist. In his own sick mind, if Welch is not a murder, he might think of himself as providing pleasure such as drink, drugs, and sex to kids.
I am not sure Welch or I or almost anyone could account for their whereabouts in the 1970s unless there was something distinct about the day like a double abduction. Welch appears to remember the day since he told his niece he was at the mall and his stepmother remembers seeing the report of the abduction on TV with Welch. Welch expressed hopes of collecting the reward to his stepmother, but this might have just been wishful thinking (such as my wishful thinking that I can contribute to the case?) Welch, like many others at the mall that day may have thought, if I solve the crime I can get the reward. The best case for Welch would be if he was hanging out, walking home, with some no-good friend who grew up and is now an upstanding citizen and can vouch that Welch was not alone that day. But not having a good alibi is not proof of guilt. The worst case for Welch would be that he was inventing a false story that would account for him being seen with the girls without being the murder.
It would be interesting to know if Welch ever called the police claiming to have seen the sisters at the mall in hopes of obtaining a reward, but it appears that the police records of that day were not great; they didnt even record the mall security guards names. I have looked/glanced at many good-looking women and forgotten what they looked like ten minutes later, so its possible that an innocent (of murder) Welch may have looked at the sisters and friend and forget them before the end of the day.
Before the new houses were built, the about 100 yards by 100 yard woods on Drumm Avenue next to Kensington Nursing and Rehab Center would have been a good spot for kids up to no good to hang out, smoke cigarettes or pot, drink, unwrap shoplifted items, make out with girlfriends and I suspect (just a guess) that Welch sometime took breaks in the woods, if for nothing other than to relieve himself.
At age 18 without a car or any prospects, Welch strikes me as someone above said unimpressive or a loser. At age 12, 13, or 14, I might have on occasion been up to no-good, out of sight of adults, in some woods (I grew up 8 miles away). But by age 18, I and all of my friends that had any prospects had cars, part time jobs, and were in college. Welch seems like he never grew up.
Frankly, without a car or a house of his own, Welch strikes me as so unimpressive that I cant see how he would have had the resources to pull of a kidnapping, much less a double kidnapping. A few years later, he did not have the $250 to pay a ticket for driving without a license or enough on the ball to have a drivers license. I cant see him as a mastermind. Maybe he was lucky to get away with some crimes, but he is not smart.
What I can easily see happening is that Welch ran into the two girls on Drumm Ave or the woods, and was able to talk them into a smoke or drink. The details of Welchs other crimes are not that public, for the privacy of the victims I assume, but it sounds like Welch like to seduce his victims over time and had enough social skills to do this with easily impressed kids. Once a victim is talked into doing something illegal such as drugs or underage drinking, a victim is less likely to go to authorities. Welch may have made some unwanted advances and something went wrong or he just lost his temper.
Accidents do happen and accidentally (in a crime) killing someone does happen, but killing two people would likely only be done to kill a witness. Perhaps one girl said, I am going to tell. Or one girl may have just started to cry and Welch hit her to shut her up. Still killing two people does take some effort.
I am about the same age as Welch, four or so years younger (or slightly more depending on his date or birth with has been reported inconsistently) . At the time in the 70s, DNA evidence was not something anyone or any criminal worried about. But even to young kids, getting rid of the body was known as something to do to avoid a murder charge, as in the Jimmy Hoffa case.
But if Welch did not have the resources (car, house or private location) to plan an advance kidnapping, he would have problems scraping up the resources (just a car, gasoline and shovel) on an hours notice to get rid of two bodies.
My guess is that if something went wrong and a not-so bright Welch found himself with two dead bodies to get rid of, he either stumbled on some way to get rid of the bodies, had help (very few except a close family member would help get rid of two bodies) or somehow got a car and loaded the bodies into a car on Drumm Ave.
At first Welch may have spent five minutes covering up the bodies with leaves and walked away panicked as fast as he could.
Walking away to Kensington (alternatively he could have walked back to the mall) in a half hour or so he might have come up with a plan to get rid of the bodies. At this point Welch would NOT have known if anyone had seen him looking at the girl (or talking to the girls which as far as I know nobody at the mall reported seeing him do). At this point, Welch would NOT know that there were other red herrings/suspect such as Tape Recorder Man who would draw attention away from him.
I dont fault the police for not focusing on Welch at the time, since at the time he was not a known sex criminal, if the police even knew his name at the time; the police may have only known his drawn picture. Even now Welch does not have a history of murder so he is not the perfect match. I imagine the police were interviewing and ruling out every other known sex criminal in the area.
Welch is not that bright , but it did not take that much to hotwire a car in 70s which would include many cars built in the 60s. Likewise, Wright may have found some hole or other spot a half-mile or a mile away that he could have dumped the bodies in. It would have been difficult to carry even a light body more than a mile or two, both physically and without being observed. As I have jogged parts of the route, without a good bag or backpack, it would be hard to carry even a kids body. Although at the time with fewer houses, I think one could have walked down Drum Ave, across Plyers Mill Road and to downtown Kensington/the railroad tracks without being noticed. There may have been some dumpsters in slightly industrial/retail Kensington that a body could have been dumped in. Police do claim to have checked (some/all?) dumpsters (how soon after a couple of days?)
Welch would have access to the stores back at the mall or in Kensington to buy or shoplift bags or a small shovel. Likewise, it might have been possible to steal a shovel. I suspect that as an opportunist thief , Welch was keeping his eyes open for things to steal most of the time.
Alternatively Welch could have dug a shallow grave in the woods or creek bed, and was just lucky that the grave was not discovered. I am not sure how large the nursing home was in the 70s, but in addition to being uphill, I think it would have been hard for him to walk past it unnoticed. It is hard to dig a hole without leaving noticeable dirt, but not all of the searchers were trained. Even today in similar woods in March, there are not many places to dig without being observed from a backyard or road. I think the creek bed a few feet down below the other land is the only place to dig mostly unobserved, but there may have been other out-of-view areas of the woods in the 1970s.
I would not put total faith in dogs trying to follow a scent a few days after dozens of human searchers, but I think the dogs lost the scent near a creek, a very small creek (one foot wide) that goes under Drumm Ave. There is a larger creek it runs into 150 feet away on the other side of Drumm Ave. This would suggest being loaded into a car or walking down the road? Or I dont know where the dogs accurately or inaccurately lost the scent.
I am not sure if there were any good places to dump a body on Welchs walking-the-train-tracks route, but if Welch stumbles on a hole that looked like a pre-dug grave to him, he might have moved the bodies (with difficulty.)
But in any case, even if the bodies were found, it seems unlikely that any DNA evidence useful in conviction could be found. There is only a slight chance a car that Welch had access to or stole in the 70s still exists today and only a minute chance DNA could be obtained.
Well these have been my thoughts as I jogged by the last month. Any comments or other ideas? The best case might be just if the state of Delaware keeps a close eye on him or a victim in another of cases comes forward. Of course even for a child molester, Welch is innocent of murder until proven guilty. As with other persons-of-interest identified over the years, there seem to be a small number of violent criminals or just odd characters (Tape Recorder Man) near the mall (or any mall with thousands of visitors), so I am not above 50-50 that it was Welch.
I doubt Welch wants to talk to the police to clear his name since anything he says will be used against him. No lawyer would tell Welch to talk to the police. but he might want to if offered immunity (for his testimony only) just to not be seen as a murder as opposed to a child rapist. In his own sick mind, if Welch is not a murder, he might think of himself as providing pleasure such as drink, drugs, and sex to kids.
I am not sure Welch or I or almost anyone could account for their whereabouts in the 1970s unless there was something distinct about the day like a double abduction. Welch appears to remember the day since he told his niece he was at the mall and his stepmother remembers seeing the report of the abduction on TV with Welch. Welch expressed hopes of collecting the reward to his stepmother, but this might have just been wishful thinking (such as my wishful thinking that I can contribute to the case?) Welch, like many others at the mall that day may have thought, if I solve the crime I can get the reward. The best case for Welch would be if he was hanging out, walking home, with some no-good friend who grew up and is now an upstanding citizen and can vouch that Welch was not alone that day. But not having a good alibi is not proof of guilt. The worst case for Welch would be that he was inventing a false story that would account for him being seen with the girls without being the murder.
It would be interesting to know if Welch ever called the police claiming to have seen the sisters at the mall in hopes of obtaining a reward, but it appears that the police records of that day were not great; they didnt even record the mall security guards names. I have looked/glanced at many good-looking women and forgotten what they looked like ten minutes later, so its possible that an innocent (of murder) Welch may have looked at the sisters and friend and forget them before the end of the day.
steveP120 Welcome to Websleuths and thanks for your post.
You have obviously put a lot of thought into how a perpetrator might have killed and disposed of the girls if an attack took place in the wooded area discussed.
What strikes me most is the extreme difficulty he would have faced and how - lacking experience, intelligence, and resources - how much he would have been relying on sheer luck to have pulled it off in this manner. Not that it might not be possible, but that it would have been extremely difficult.
It would also require that someone who is at all other times a very disorganized individual become immediately very organized and clear thinking.
You mention the dogs, and I would like to touch on that aspect of the search for the girls. The dogs used were highly trained in tracking. They were two German shepherds owned and trained by Mr. Tom McQuinn of Philadelphia and it was Radio station WMAL that paid for him to bring them into the area.
The dogs did not begin their search until Tuesday morning, 1 April 1975, a full week after the girls disappeared. They searched the area of Wheaton Plaza, the roads and wooded areas of Kensington which the girls were believed to have used.
Being tracking dogs, it would have been proper procedure to have provided the dogs with the scents of the girls (from a pillow case, belt, item of clothing, etc) before starting out. Having trained tracking dogs myself, I can tell you that once they have the scent, it would not matter how many other people had been in the area, they could pick up their target scent and follow it. Each individual person has a scent which is as distinctly different to a tracking dog as DNA is to the experts.
There is some confusion as to exactly where the dogs picked up the girls's scent or where they may have lost it, but reports all state that the dogs did pick up their scent at some point early on.
Here is what was reported in the Washington Post on 2 April 1975:
Quote - (after discussing the ground search by volunteers which had been underway for a week) ... Yesterday morning, the search began again as two specially trained German shepherd apparently picked up the scent of the girls and led a path through a wooded area from a rear parking lot at Wheaton Plaza to the girls' home, one-half mile away.
Pointing to the woods behind the shopping center, police Capt. Gabriel Lamastra said yesterday that the use of the dogs "eliminated in my mind" the possibility "that the kids are lying around here".
Police also said they could not tell definitely whether the scent picked up by the dogs was from their journey to Wheaton Plaza March 25. But dog trainer Tom McGuinn doubted the girls' scents would last any longer than one week because of recent rain and wind storms. - unquote.
Here is a quote from the next day's paper: Quote - Two German Shepherds trained to track the scent of missing individuals spent four hours yesterday (2 April) going back over the area previously covered by police searchers., Those earlier police searches also had revealed no clues as to what happened to Sheila Lyon, 13, and her sister, Katherine, 11. - unquote
(note both girls' birthdays had just been the previous weekend)
My interpretation of the articles is that the scents may have been picked up on 1 April near the back parking lot of Wards and near the end of Faulkner where there was a path and a very small wooded area in 1975. Twice in the article, it refers to the wooded area being near the parking lot and at one point about the Lyon house being a half-mile away.
The dog search resumed on 2 April and that is probably when they were in the larger wooded area between the McComas/Drumm intersection and Jennings Road. This is from Washington Post on 3 April:
Quote - Two specially trained dogs yesterday (2 April) again scoured two square miles near the Kensington home of the two missing Lyon sisters but failed to turn up any clues, Montgomery County police said. - unquote.
If there had been any kind of a burial or place where there was any blood, or a place in the woods where the girls lay under leaves, those dogs most likely would have found it.
You have obviously put a lot of thought into how a perpetrator might have killed and disposed of the girls if an attack took place in the wooded area discussed.
What strikes me most is the extreme difficulty he would have faced and how - lacking experience, intelligence, and resources - how much he would have been relying on sheer luck to have pulled it off in this manner. Not that it might not be possible, but that it would have been extremely difficult.
It would also require that someone who is at all other times a very disorganized individual become immediately very organized and clear thinking.
You mention the dogs, and I would like to touch on that aspect of the search for the girls. The dogs used were highly trained in tracking. They were two German shepherds owned and trained by Mr. Tom McQuinn of Philadelphia and it was Radio station WMAL that paid for him to bring them into the area.
The dogs did not begin their search until Tuesday morning, 1 April 1975, a full week after the girls disappeared. They searched the area of Wheaton Plaza, the roads and wooded areas of Kensington which the girls were believed to have used.
Being tracking dogs, it would have been proper procedure to have provided the dogs with the scents of the girls (from a pillow case, belt, item of clothing, etc) before starting out. Having trained tracking dogs myself, I can tell you that once they have the scent, it would not matter how many other people had been in the area, they could pick up their target scent and follow it. Each individual person has a scent which is as distinctly different to a tracking dog as DNA is to the experts.
There is some confusion as to exactly where the dogs picked up the girls's scent or where they may have lost it, but reports all state that the dogs did pick up their scent at some point early on.
Here is what was reported in the Washington Post on 2 April 1975:
Quote - (after discussing the ground search by volunteers which had been underway for a week) ... Yesterday morning, the search began again as two specially trained German shepherd apparently picked up the scent of the girls and led a path through a wooded area from a rear parking lot at Wheaton Plaza to the girls' home, one-half mile away.
Pointing to the woods behind the shopping center, police Capt. Gabriel Lamastra said yesterday that the use of the dogs "eliminated in my mind" the possibility "that the kids are lying around here".
Police also said they could not tell definitely whether the scent picked up by the dogs was from their journey to Wheaton Plaza March 25. But dog trainer Tom McGuinn doubted the girls' scents would last any longer than one week because of recent rain and wind storms. - unquote.
Here is a quote from the next day's paper: Quote - Two German Shepherds trained to track the scent of missing individuals spent four hours yesterday (2 April) going back over the area previously covered by police searchers., Those earlier police searches also had revealed no clues as to what happened to Sheila Lyon, 13, and her sister, Katherine, 11. - unquote
(note both girls' birthdays had just been the previous weekend)
My interpretation of the articles is that the scents may have been picked up on 1 April near the back parking lot of Wards and near the end of Faulkner where there was a path and a very small wooded area in 1975. Twice in the article, it refers to the wooded area being near the parking lot and at one point about the Lyon house being a half-mile away.
The dog search resumed on 2 April and that is probably when they were in the larger wooded area between the McComas/Drumm intersection and Jennings Road. This is from Washington Post on 3 April:
Quote - Two specially trained dogs yesterday (2 April) again scoured two square miles near the Kensington home of the two missing Lyon sisters but failed to turn up any clues, Montgomery County police said. - unquote.
If there had been any kind of a burial or place where there was any blood, or a place in the woods where the girls lay under leaves, those dogs most likely would have found it.
Richard: That being said, what if the girls had been dragged to the nursing home or a neighboring house? Would the scent have still been there after the week of rain etc.? Or is that a possibility?
Environmental factors, such as temperature, rain, dampness, wind, types of terrain and ground cover all play a part in retention or dissapation of human scent. Rain will wash away scent. Sunlight and heat will cause it to dry up. Environmental factors affect the dogs as well. A dry dusty day will affect his nose and a hot or cold day will fatigue him.
There is both a Ground Scent, and an Airbourne Scent left by a human (or an animal) which a tracking dog detects. The Ground Scent is that left in the foot print (direct touch) of the person walking, and the Airbourne scent is that which he/she emits off the skin or hair or clothing. The Air scent is often blown to shrubs, trees, fences, etc.
A tracking dog will often cast between the ground scent and the places where the airbourne scent has drifted. A really good tracking dog stays fairly close to the ground track, as that is where dropped objects or other items of evidence might be found. If the person being tracked has dropped something, the dog is trained to indicate it to the handler.
The only person who can say precisely whether or not the tracking dog has picked up a scent, a trail, or an object dropped by the person is the dog's handler/trainer. Each dog is different in his signals, body language, and indicators and the handler knows what those indicators mean because he/she has worked with that dog in many training problems and in many different conditions and terrains.
There is no exact time that scent is dissapated or washed away. It would depend on all the above mentioned factors. Generally a cool, damp period with no rain or direct sunlight would be the best case scenario for preserving scent. A lot of rain, or hot, dry days with a lot of direct sunlight would degrade the scent faster.
In this specific case, the handler, Tom McQuinn stated that he did not think that the scent would have remained much more than a week. This was in response to a question as to whether the scent of the girls which was picked up by the dogs was from 25 March (7 days earlier) or from some other trip the girls might have made to the mall prior to 25 March. But that was simply his opinion.
Dragging a person through the woods along leaves and damp soil would leave a very easy path for any dog to follow. In fact, the first tracks that new dogs are trained on are of this type. You want them to succeed. As you continue their training, you make the tracks longer, you introduce turns, and you stop dragging items or scuffing feet. Eventually, you only leave normaly spaced foot steps, you make turns of up to 90 degrees, and you cross over different types of terrain. And you drop a variety of items for the dog to find.
There is a lot of Hollywood nonsense put on the TV shows and in movies about people going into the water or doubling back over their footprints, or spreading pepper on the trail, etc in an effort to fool tracking dogs. All just a waste of time, because they don't work.
A tracking dog, upon finding the target scent, will immediately head in the direction that the person went and follow his track. How a dog knows the direction of travel is a mystery to me, but they absolutely do. If a person "back tracks" that is goes back over his own footprints, the dog knows this and will either pick up the new direction immediately from the turn, or (if properly trained) go to the end of the footprints, retrieve (or indicate) any dropped items, and then backtrack to the turn.
These two German Shepherds were highly trained animals with a national reputation. They had been used in some high profile cases before being brought to Wheaton. I can only assume that they were pretty thorough in the search.
In this case, the dogs definitely picked up the girls' scent near Wheaton Plaza Shopping Center, but whether they were able to actually follow a track or if they were simply walked over the roads and areas that the girls might have gone is uncertain. It is possible that fragments of the girls' scent trail (either going or coming) might have remained in small areas protected from sunlight or rain.
In the end, it was concluded that the girls were not in the areas searched and no forensic evidence was discovered.
There is no doubt that the girl's scent was dissapated by 1 and 2 April when the dogs were brought in. The dogs recognized the girls' scent but might not know if it was from them coming or going on the 25th of March.
Had they been brought in within the first day or two after the disappearance, police probably would have learned a lot more regarding where the girls went and what became of them.
Thank you for your comments and kind words.
However I would argue that it was Welch's stupidity that would make it likely that something would go wrong, fatally wrong here, and wrong enough to get him arrested jailed nearly for life for other crimes later on.
Going after two girls would double the number of witnesses against him, changing a her-word-against-mine crime to a certain conviction. A smarter man would have thought the risks too high. Going after two girls would also double the chance that one of them would talk to authorities. Going after two girls would more than double the chance that one of them would scream during an attack. Going after two girls would double the police effort to find you. I doubt Welch had any plan on what to do (walk away) if anything went wrong and just acted violently when something went wrong.
Of course once Welch found himself with dead bodies at his feet, as happens in crimes gone wrong, Welch's lack of intelligence and resources would decrease the odd of getting rid of the bodies unnoticed.
I am not an expert on the matter, but on news shows, I have seen every criminal from smart Delaware politicians to idiot ex-boyfriends (the Bethesda stripper case) try to get rid of bodies. Prior to DNA, which identified the blood, and videotape evidence of large packages (with bodies inside) being moved, criminals virtually always escaped murder charges if the body was not found. "The murdered person could be living in Florida," often established reasonable doubt.
Jogging past the wooded site today in the rain, the bushes and trees are just beginning to turn green. All winter I could see into similar woods for hundreds of yards. My main thought was that in winter, there are very few hidden places where anyone could dig a grave unnoticed while digging
Likewise in daylight, if there were any bodies on the surface, I could have spotted bodies or the lack of bodies in five minutes, ten minutes you you count the woods above the nursing home. At night searching with a flashlight for a possible injured girl, it would obviously have taken longer and one police officer reports ruining his leisure suit by searching at night (by running in sticker bushes I assume).
After following several false/mistaken reports (girls in station wagon, girls walking back to mall at 7:30) according to newspaper reports (one of which you posted) it took the police THREE WEEKS to realize the last good sighting of the girls was at the bottom of Drumm Ave near the woods, because a boy thought the girls were seen at mall much later and seeing them at 3PM near the woods would not be important.
The police had to follow all the leads they had, but most of the leads were in the wrong place. (station wagon, back at mall....).
If the search was for a live or dead body on the surface, I would have complete confidence in the police report that they were not there. If the bodies were in a half-decent grave, I would not have that much confidence that they were not there.
To smoke or drink and try to seduce a girl, I imagine Welch talked them into walking twenty to forty yards off the beaten path for privacy (the woods are not that large so he could not have walked much more). As a kid, one did not want others walking by while up to no good.
If something went wrong, the bodies were already a bit off the beaten path, and Welch may have realized he only had an hour or two before the missing girls were searched for and did the best he could.
Even 39 years later, the police were able to identify Welch's hangouts. If dead bodies were found at the woods where he was know to walk past (or even stop at which is speculative on my part) he would know that he would be a murder suspect.
I don't give Welch good odds moving bodies compared to someone with a car, but I would guess he had a 50:50 shot at moving the bodies unnoticed if it was him.
The fact that the police did not pay for the dogs (perhaps they used their own dogs earlier) suggest to me that the police had little faith in following a trail at that late date.
Also would a tracking dog have the same training/ability as a body-recovery dog or would a tracking dog just ignore dead animals and dead humans?
There is some difference in the training of Tracking Dogs, Search and Rescue Dogs, and Cadaver Dogs, but each relies on the same basic scenting and instinct abilities.
Tracking dogs are trained to ignore all but their target scent when tracking, but they would lead a handler to either a live or dead person or animal if that was who or what they were tracking. If the girls were hidden under leaves or buried in a shallow grave, those tracking dogs would have found them.
Search and Rescue Dogs are trained to look first for living persons under rubble or debris etc, ignoring the dead initially. Then when told to look for the dead, they concentrate on that task. Obviously this is to rescue living persons first.
Both Tracking Dogs and Search/Rescue Dogs are usually worked on a lead (leash or rope). Cadaver dogs might be worked on or off lead and their specific task is to locate a grave or dead body.
I cannot comment on what the MCP knew about the use of dogs in a search in 1975. I would hope that today's department has a better understanding of the use of Tracking Dogs. Had they used them within the first couple of days after the girls went missing, they might have had a much better picture of what happened to them and where they went.
Pink Panther
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Unless he had an accomplice with a car, it sounds unlikely that he committed this crime. One guy alone, very limited time, two girls - no way to take them anywhere?
Maybe LE is looking for the security guard because they think that he was an accomplice?
Maybe LE is looking for the security guard because they think that he was an accomplice?
Steve: I think you are on to something. Along with this line of reasoning (kind of the dumb luck criminal) is this: Welch's return to the area a couple of years later to rob the house on Hobson. Some kind of psychological returning to the scene near the crime? And almost asking to be caught with the arrest? It also shows that he had a comfort level with being in that vicinity and knowing the lay of the land.
So....maybe he managed to lure the girls into one of the houses and the event happened inside someplace where a scent could not be tracked. That would also allow him to take care of disposal of the bodies under the cover of darkness-----carry them to another place.
Motherof5
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He had a girlfriend who was older than he and most likely had a car. He could have used her car.
Thank you for your comments. A brief description of the location may clear some things up.
The woods where the sisters were last seen close to entering for the short-cut is about a ten or fifteen minute from the mall and also from downtown Kensington, depending on how fast you walk and what part of the mall or Kensington you are talking about.
It's a steep uphill walk to the mall or University Blvd. Because of the steepness, this is the hardest part of my jog.
The houses are mostly post-WWII tract housing similar to Levittown, NY. Most are Cape Cods, 1.5 stories. Some are ramblers. Some are squarish two stories. The newer houses are often McMansions, as the size of houses has increased on average. But the yards are still small. While jogging, I can see past the backyards of one house to another house.
While I am sure Welch, a petty thief, was always watching for items to steal, remaining inside a house he should not be for hours would be very risky, much less taking two girls into a house.
On the ten-minute walk from the mall, two people remember seeing the girls (ALONE without Welch) and today that is about the number of people who see me while I jog a similar distance. The point is that it would be very risky in daylight to enter the vast majority of those tract houses if you should not be doing so. The odds of a neighbor seeing you are too high.
There is a small industrial section of Kensington, on block wide on both sides of the train tracks and about a mile long. It is possible that on a weekend, Welch may have found an unoccupied building that he could enter unnoticed, but this would require talking the girls into a ten minute or longer walk.
The industrial section borders the train tracks which is the back way he liked to walk home.
I assumed that once Welch left the Mall, crime or no crime in the woods, he would keep walking home.
Keep in mind that in the mid 70s, there were no cell phones to call for help (or for the police to use your cell phone to place you near a crime).
To find a pay phone to call for help (from a friend or relative) Welch would have to walk either back to the Mall or to Kensington. (Where was the NSA in those days recording all phone call metadata?).
In the 70s, one had to hope to find the person you were calling at home. Still he could have called someone, made up some story about urgently needed a car, offering to pay for gas and expenses and so on. Likewise he could have walked back to the mall and talked to one of his friends (the security guard??) working at the mall into lending him the car for a day.
Welch is such a pathetic character, that I doubt anyone lending him a car would think he was smart enough to commit a double murder/abduction when they saw the news later that week.
Or Welch could have obtained supplies to dig a hole/grave and/or carry two bodies. Welch did have landscaping experience which would include the ability to dig and level the land flat, but I am not sure if he had this experience at age 18 - he might have become a landscaper later.
I a not sure exactly where Welch lived then, but I think it would take 30 minutes or more for him to walk home from Kensington. After walking home he could have borrowed a car from a relative/friend.
I hope this clarifies some things.
The woods where the sisters were last seen close to entering for the short-cut is about a ten or fifteen minute from the mall and also from downtown Kensington, depending on how fast you walk and what part of the mall or Kensington you are talking about.
It's a steep uphill walk to the mall or University Blvd. Because of the steepness, this is the hardest part of my jog.
The houses are mostly post-WWII tract housing similar to Levittown, NY. Most are Cape Cods, 1.5 stories. Some are ramblers. Some are squarish two stories. The newer houses are often McMansions, as the size of houses has increased on average. But the yards are still small. While jogging, I can see past the backyards of one house to another house.
While I am sure Welch, a petty thief, was always watching for items to steal, remaining inside a house he should not be for hours would be very risky, much less taking two girls into a house.
On the ten-minute walk from the mall, two people remember seeing the girls (ALONE without Welch) and today that is about the number of people who see me while I jog a similar distance. The point is that it would be very risky in daylight to enter the vast majority of those tract houses if you should not be doing so. The odds of a neighbor seeing you are too high.
There is a small industrial section of Kensington, on block wide on both sides of the train tracks and about a mile long. It is possible that on a weekend, Welch may have found an unoccupied building that he could enter unnoticed, but this would require talking the girls into a ten minute or longer walk.
The industrial section borders the train tracks which is the back way he liked to walk home.
I assumed that once Welch left the Mall, crime or no crime in the woods, he would keep walking home.
Keep in mind that in the mid 70s, there were no cell phones to call for help (or for the police to use your cell phone to place you near a crime).
To find a pay phone to call for help (from a friend or relative) Welch would have to walk either back to the Mall or to Kensington. (Where was the NSA in those days recording all phone call metadata?).
In the 70s, one had to hope to find the person you were calling at home. Still he could have called someone, made up some story about urgently needed a car, offering to pay for gas and expenses and so on. Likewise he could have walked back to the mall and talked to one of his friends (the security guard??) working at the mall into lending him the car for a day.
Welch is such a pathetic character, that I doubt anyone lending him a car would think he was smart enough to commit a double murder/abduction when they saw the news later that week.
Or Welch could have obtained supplies to dig a hole/grave and/or carry two bodies. Welch did have landscaping experience which would include the ability to dig and level the land flat, but I am not sure if he had this experience at age 18 - he might have become a landscaper later.
I a not sure exactly where Welch lived then, but I think it would take 30 minutes or more for him to walk home from Kensington. After walking home he could have borrowed a car from a relative/friend.
I hope this clarifies some things.
I have a fairly clear visual of the area because I grew up on the other side of Plyers Mill in a similar style neighborhood (Homewood) and from studying the maps. The only area I cannot visualize is the path that connected McComas and Jennings---I never walked it (too young when I lived there) and now, of course, it has been obliterated for the most part.
I agree with you on all points about people being able to spot activity and see through backyards given the time of year etc.
I am more thinking that Welch had a connection to one of the houses in the neighborhood---a friend of a friend who had access to a basement or something along those lines. That would also tie in with his familiarity in coming back later to rob the house on Hobson. Maybe he had a buddy who clued him in to when people were on vacation for instance.
I agree with you on all points about people being able to spot activity and see through backyards given the time of year etc.
I am more thinking that Welch had a connection to one of the houses in the neighborhood---a friend of a friend who had access to a basement or something along those lines. That would also tie in with his familiarity in coming back later to rob the house on Hobson. Maybe he had a buddy who clued him in to when people were on vacation for instance.
Most scenarios involving the abduction of the Lyon sisters indicate the necessity of a motor vehicle.
The most probable plan would be for a perpetrator (or team) to entice or force the girls into a vehicle in the parking lot. Back-up to that would be to re-position the vehicle from the parking lot to a strategic choke point in Kensington, such as the intersection of Drumm and McComas. This repositioning could be done in the space of one or two minutes, while it would take the girls about 10 minutes to walk to that same point.
A second possibility, although less likely, would be for someone living in one of the houses along the girls' intended track to entice (or force) them into the house. A vehicle might also be necessary to later move the girls or their bodies.
By the time the girls passed the Mann house on the corner of Drumm and Devin (where they were seen by the two boys in a car), there were only a few more houses before the path through the wooded area began. At the other end of the path were the very closly spaced houses along both sides of Jennings Road. This scenario would involve a great deal of chance and risk. And might not be connected in any way with anyone the girls met at the Mall.
Another possible scenario would be for someone on foot attempting to accost or abduct the girls in the wooded area. Such an attacker would most likely have been a kid who neither owned a car nor a house. But a kid being able to entice or overpower two girls in such an open and visible area without being detected or without leaving a single trace of forensic evidence makes this very unlikely. Even if he was successful, where would he take the girls?
If a double murder took place in the woods, most perpetrators would run away and not return to clean up the area and remove bodies. If he had a vehicle or house to take bodies to, why would he be walking in the woods to begin with?
Still, a chance meeting in the woods with a boy or boys might have taken place. If so, it is much more likely that they went willingly to a Kensington House with them, than that an attack would have taken place in the woods.
Regarding Welch; Montgomery County Police may have more on him than they have released to the public, but they can't seem to even get his age right. Depending on what police generated document you look at he was either 17, 18, or 22 in 1975.
Why, if Welch was seen following and bothering the girls in the mall, and was approached by mall security, would he then continue to follow them on foot for another 10 to 15 minutes through Kensington, only to accost them in the wooded area near their home? And if he was following them, why didn't the two boys in the car on Drumm and Mr. Mann see him? Several other eyewitnesses at the mall also did NOT report seeing the long hair man, or Welch, or the 12 year old girl who described him, with or around Sheila and Katherine.
We know that Welch did NOT have a drivers license in 1977 and he was said to walk or hitch hike everywhere he went. Did he actually have access to a car in March 1975? Did he or any of his friends or relatives live in Kensington along or near the girls' path? I have not heard any evidence that he had either.
Trying to connect a Walking Welch to a possible attack on the girls in the woods requires him having access to either a nearby house or an automobile. And as mentioned, he would have had at least a 15 minute walk to any pay phone to even try to make arrangements with a friend.
A Question that I would have for MCP investigators is: Have any of Welch's addresses in Maryland or DC been searched for any trace of the Lyon sisters?
Somehow, the thought of a loser like Welch being able to mastermind a double abduction with no assistance, with no resources, leaving no evidence, and then evading authorities for 39 years just is beyond belief. Given the many unknown factors and given the many known difficulties and obstacles, a scenario connecting Welch to a "team" abduction effort would be much more likely than one with Welch as the sole perpetrator.
Someone asked what are the odds of the girls meeting one weird guy (like the Tape Recorder Man) and then going out and being abducted by a completely different weird guy? Now throw into that mix yet another weird guy with long hair. Those odds go through the roof - unless perhaps there was some sort of team effort underway?
The most probable plan would be for a perpetrator (or team) to entice or force the girls into a vehicle in the parking lot. Back-up to that would be to re-position the vehicle from the parking lot to a strategic choke point in Kensington, such as the intersection of Drumm and McComas. This repositioning could be done in the space of one or two minutes, while it would take the girls about 10 minutes to walk to that same point.
A second possibility, although less likely, would be for someone living in one of the houses along the girls' intended track to entice (or force) them into the house. A vehicle might also be necessary to later move the girls or their bodies.
By the time the girls passed the Mann house on the corner of Drumm and Devin (where they were seen by the two boys in a car), there were only a few more houses before the path through the wooded area began. At the other end of the path were the very closly spaced houses along both sides of Jennings Road. This scenario would involve a great deal of chance and risk. And might not be connected in any way with anyone the girls met at the Mall.
Another possible scenario would be for someone on foot attempting to accost or abduct the girls in the wooded area. Such an attacker would most likely have been a kid who neither owned a car nor a house. But a kid being able to entice or overpower two girls in such an open and visible area without being detected or without leaving a single trace of forensic evidence makes this very unlikely. Even if he was successful, where would he take the girls?
If a double murder took place in the woods, most perpetrators would run away and not return to clean up the area and remove bodies. If he had a vehicle or house to take bodies to, why would he be walking in the woods to begin with?
Still, a chance meeting in the woods with a boy or boys might have taken place. If so, it is much more likely that they went willingly to a Kensington House with them, than that an attack would have taken place in the woods.
Regarding Welch; Montgomery County Police may have more on him than they have released to the public, but they can't seem to even get his age right. Depending on what police generated document you look at he was either 17, 18, or 22 in 1975.
Why, if Welch was seen following and bothering the girls in the mall, and was approached by mall security, would he then continue to follow them on foot for another 10 to 15 minutes through Kensington, only to accost them in the wooded area near their home? And if he was following them, why didn't the two boys in the car on Drumm and Mr. Mann see him? Several other eyewitnesses at the mall also did NOT report seeing the long hair man, or Welch, or the 12 year old girl who described him, with or around Sheila and Katherine.
We know that Welch did NOT have a drivers license in 1977 and he was said to walk or hitch hike everywhere he went. Did he actually have access to a car in March 1975? Did he or any of his friends or relatives live in Kensington along or near the girls' path? I have not heard any evidence that he had either.
Trying to connect a Walking Welch to a possible attack on the girls in the woods requires him having access to either a nearby house or an automobile. And as mentioned, he would have had at least a 15 minute walk to any pay phone to even try to make arrangements with a friend.
A Question that I would have for MCP investigators is: Have any of Welch's addresses in Maryland or DC been searched for any trace of the Lyon sisters?
Somehow, the thought of a loser like Welch being able to mastermind a double abduction with no assistance, with no resources, leaving no evidence, and then evading authorities for 39 years just is beyond belief. Given the many unknown factors and given the many known difficulties and obstacles, a scenario connecting Welch to a "team" abduction effort would be much more likely than one with Welch as the sole perpetrator.
Someone asked what are the odds of the girls meeting one weird guy (like the Tape Recorder Man) and then going out and being abducted by a completely different weird guy? Now throw into that mix yet another weird guy with long hair. Those odds go through the roof - unless perhaps there was some sort of team effort underway?
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