MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #5

[Kickoff61]

I have given some logical answers and could explain further, but no-one wants to hear them and just shoots it down lol

 

[Kickoff61]

Everyone seems to think this guy expected to get cut , scratched gouged or whatever? That changed a lot!

 

[Kickoff61]

More than one "expert" has said He is familiar with the area and is a local. So,if that is the case,why the car? After thousands of hours are they wrong about him being local?

Yes, LE and others said he is familiar with the area.

 

[ForensicMass]

Cars are parked quite frequently on the side of road where little paths head into the woods, i see them all the time and never think anything of it. If the person is local they might have the same idea too, such a sighting is just so normal it wouldn't really grab anyone's attention.

If you looked at a 24 hour clock on BSR the fraction of time that someone is parked on the shoulder would be in the 98th percentile of improbability. I understand people park on the side of the road "all the time". The odds of someone parking there coincidentally at that exact moment when the crime was occurring in that exact place is astronomically small. on the Google street view image you can see that this is not a well-worn dirt pull off. Yes perhaps people have pulled off at the spot but not regularly by any means.

 

[Kickoff61]

A turning point in the plans is when she fought and left the injuries (anywhere on the body) and then his DNA behind from that.

and these are things we know from LE

 

[Kickoff61]

Everyone seems to be basing this on the crime happening from the vehicle. That is the issue everyone is also having trouble figuring out. So the next option is...it did not start out that way.

 

[Rocky1]

You have said you do not believe a car was involved and have insisted it couldn't possible be a car but would have to be a bycicle.

And you have also said you aren't convinced the perp is male and that you aren't convinced his face was scratched.

Despite LE saying the perp had access to a dark SUV that day, the perp was male, and that the perp had scratches Andy likely an eye injury.

Perhaps I am misunderstanding but continuing to question the gender and the involvement of an SUV seems to be in direct conflict with the facts LE has given. And I'm just not sure how exploring theories that outright deny the facts is helpful.

No, I never insisted a car wasn't involved< i said the Bicycle theory makes more sense to me.
I never said I didn't think it was a male,I said I have no doubt, nor ever did that this was a male.You must have miss read.
True, I am not convinced his face was scratched. I do believe he was scratched.
Injury to his eye? Where did that come from?
Here is the link to the press conference. Give me the time stamp where they said that, because I missed it.

http://www.masslive.com/news/worcester/index.ssf/2016/08/authorities_to_hold_press_conf.html

 

[ForensicMass]

We do not know she took self defense classes we know she sent one tweet about a self defense class...no indication by the class givers themselves though that she actually went to



I did just reread that and you're correct. If you post on Twitter or Facebook to encourage people to go skiing, it's fair to infer that you yourself are a skier. I'll grant you that there is no proof she ever took such a class but it seems pretty likely. She obviously had done some kind of reading about self-defense or had some exposure to it to have posted something like that in the first place. The fact I gave about getting into the car with someone is literally on the first page of self-defense 101. Do a quick Google search on self-defense and abduction

 

[Kickoff61]

The injuries could be anywhere on the body. They never specified.

 

[ForensicMass]

More than one "expert" has said He is familiar with the area and is a local. So,if that is the case,why the car? After thousands of hours are they wrong about him being local?

What Was their exact wording? Did they say they think he is a local/familiar? Did they say out right he is. Can we get a couple of quotes up in here ?

I understand your dilemma it's my dilemma too. If he's a local I don't understand the car and vice versa.

 

[Kickoff61]

What Was their exact wording? Did they say they think he is a local/familiar? Did they say out right he is. Can we get a couple of quotes up in here ?

I understand your dilemma it's my dilemma too. If he's a local I don't understand the car and vice versa.

You have implied the person followed her from the store. Well, a local could be at the store. You have said she was probably approached with attempt to get her in the car, but she ran. Well, locals have vehicles. I tend to disagree with the vehicle abduction to start with and think it plays a part some other way, (more than one actually) but there is no possible way to rule out local.

 

[Kickoff61]

I think there are numerous scenarios without the facts. As I have said before, impossible to completely figure out without the facts of course. And we don't know if it is a primary or secondary crime scene. Some people have thought she could have been put there after she was killed. IF that theory were true, a local would certainly need a vehicle to bring her there. But, like I said, there are numerous scenarios.

 

[Rocky1]

The statement on the SUV though didn't just say they saw a dark SUV at that spot at that time....it asked for info on any males in the area that would have had access to a dark SUV that day....to me that is saying that are connecting a dark SUV in a much much much bigger way then just someone seeing it on the side of the road for a brief period of time.

I think LE has conclusive reason for knowing the perp was driving around Princeton in a dark SUV on Sunday Aug 7.

I don't find continuing to dismiss this helpful, I find it actually harmful. When we stick to one theory and evidence comes forward that conflicts with our theory perhaps it's not the info that is incorrect but the theory being clung to despite conflicting info that needs to be reassessed..

.I guess I don't understand why you don't look at the facts and say what makes sense given the facts....rather then well I think this theory should fit so I will just dismiss any facts that don't support it. But perhaps that's just me.

So far there are 2 facts.One is he was a male. The other that people saw an SUV parked on BSR. Unless something has changed, they are trying to connect the two,but haven't yet.
It is not a fact that the perp was driving an SUV.
I haven't dismissed anything, and until more facts are given, it could have happened anyway. I am open to anything that makes sense.
Maybe you can explain why a local, that knows the area, would take his car and risk being caught?,

 

[ForensicMass]

You have implied the person followed her from the store. Well, a local could be at the store. You have said she was probably approached with attempt to get her in the car, but she ran. Well, locals have vehicles. I tend to disagree with the vehicle abduction to start with and think it plays a part some other way, (more than one actually) but there is no possible way to rule out local.

I suppose you're right. I Guess in including the local element. My best theory is that a local saw her at the store. In my theory this local is probably from Princeton originally or has relatives there or friends. But this person probably does not live in Princeton. He may have known where she lived in already or he may have seen where she lived when he followed her back from the store. The more important piece is that he knew she was there at that particular time on that particular day and he also may have inferred that she was preparing for a run. I don't necessarily think we are talking about someone who is 20 years old like a lot of people have claimed. I believe this guy could be 40 years old he could be an older brother or a cousin or a father of one of Vanessa's associates. Someone that knows her tangentially and not deeply. It was not a romantic interest of hers who she was going to meet. He either surprise her with force or try to coerce her and then resorted to force. I don't know how she got down the path. She may have run in there or he may have brought her in there. But if he brought her in there he would have had to remain at the scene longer and in a more exposed way that he had control over. if he was ultra familiar with Princeton, I still can't understand why he did not bring her to a more secluded location. I am only in Princeton a few times a year and I know of locations that are more remote that are only five minutes away. It just doesn't seem like a good choice to bring her in there versus all the other alternatives. In any case she ends up there and he gets back in the car and takes off.
That's the most probable theory that I can think of right now that incorporates all of the information given to us by law-enforcement.

 

[Kickoff61]

So far there are 2 facts.One is he was a male. The other that people saw an SUV parked on BSR. Unless something has changed, they are trying to connect the two,but haven't yet.
It is not a fact that the perp was driving an SUV.
I haven't dismissed anything, and until more facts are given, it could have happened anyway. I am open to anything that makes sense.
Maybe you can explain why a local, that knows the area, would take his car and risk being caught?,

You are right there. Things can't be dismissed because too little is known . Not enough facts.

 

[Kickoff61]

Well if it were a local - He certainly achieved what he wanted then didn't he? Making everyone think a 'local' wouldn't leave her there?

 

[Rocky1]

All of that seems more likely to you than just a poor split-second decision by someone who was in a state of sheer terror?

I'm not saying that what you suggest is impossible, but it doesn't seem more probable.

I know exactly what you mean about her possibly hopping in the car with someone, but here's why I don't think that happened in this case:

If she did get in the car with someone it wasn't a plan to meet up because her electronic footprint would have revealed this by now to LE. ( Facebook chat, texts and cell phone).

So that leaves only the possibility of somebody driving by and happening upon her (maybe this person was a really good guesser, and he times it right somehow, which is unlikely and difficult in and of itself).

She has just left her moms only five minutes previous. (she is possibly seen walking and talking on the phone at this point by the witness) law-enforcement can easily figure out who was on the other end of that call. most likely that call ended normally. She continued walking.

Joe Schmoe from Leominster pulls up beside her. She hasn't seen the old Joe for a couple years maybe. Hey let's catch up, hop in.

At this point she either gets in or refuses.

Let's take the gets in route.

She could just stand there beside his vehicle and speak with him but let's say She gets in because he's in the AC
but he is in the road at this point with his foot on the brake.
He pulls over to the shoulder near the path. Likely more than one car drives by them while they are sitting there on the side of the road. somehow things go wrong and he kills her right along the road. He takes her out of the car and drags her back in the woods. His car has been there the whole time they were chatting, and now the additional time that he is in the woods with her. He knows people saw it there. If he kills her in the car, I think he drives elsewhere- NOT THAT FAR, because he has a body in his car, but he drives elsewhere in Princeton. To a more secluded place. And dumps her there.

If they drive off together, with her still alive, he does not try to throw the case by going back to the abduction/meeting scene. That is riskier than any other alternative in terms of him possibly being identified.


So I just can't see it

Being old friends, hence wanting to catch up, what made "old Joe" so mad in that short of time?

 

[Rocky1]

I have given some logical answers and could explain further, but no-one wants to hear them and just shoots it down lol

Your thoughts are just as valid as anyones.

 

[Kickoff61]

Your thoughts are just as valid as anyones.

Thanks , Rocky.

 

[Rocky1]

I suppose you're right. I Guess in including the local element. My best theory is that a local saw her at the store. In my theory this local is probably from Princeton originally or has relatives there or friends. But this person probably does not live in Princeton. He may have known where she lived in already or he may have seen where she lived when he followed her back from the store. The more important piece is that he knew she was there at that particular time on that particular day and he also may have inferred that she was preparing for a run. I don't necessarily think we are talking about someone who is 20 years old like a lot of people have claimed. I believe this guy could be 40 years old he could be an older brother or a cousin or a father of one of Vanessa's associates. Someone that knows her tangentially and not deeply. It was not a romantic interest of hers who she was going to meet. He either surprise her with force or try to coerce her and then resorted to force. I don't know how she got down the path. She may have run in there or he may have brought her in there. But if he brought her in there he would have had to remain at the scene longer and in a more exposed way that he had control over. if he was ultra familiar with Princeton, I still can't understand why he did not bring her to a more secluded location. I am only in Princeton a few times a year and I know of locations that are more remote that are only five minutes away. It just doesn't seem like a good choice to bring her in there versus all the other alternatives. In any case she ends up there and he gets back in the car and takes off.
That's the most probable theory that I can think of right now that incorporates all of the information given to us by law-enforcement.

How do you explain how he knew her route, knew she's be out that day, and timed it right, if he was from out of town? I know you are trying to make the SUV fit here, as I am, but I am having trouble.
And yes I will dig up the quotes. I don't keep a notebook, so it will take a few