Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #13

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Newthoughts said:
I don't believe it.

KM says MM referred to herself as Madeleine.

Abductors wouldn't let her wander around a shop.

There were two of them - therefore, nobody would consider it odd for one part of a couple to remain in a car with a child whilst the other shops. Or one to whisk her quickly to a loo.

The most reliable info we have is German LE who say she died shortly after abduction.

Stats on such sad child abductions would suggest the same.

Why risk abducting an ordinary child from ordinary caring parents with so many abandoned children to chose from.

So I treat it with caution.
Click to expand...

Abductions from families of stable background do happen, it's certainly plausible in the MM case that it could have been a motive (even if that's not how things turned out in the end as German LE suggest).

A strong reason that someone might take this route rather than heading to an impoverished country and picking up some orphaned kids is opportunism. If you've got the network of correct people to act as co-conspirators reliably in a particular region, that's all you need. Indeed a network being able to act in a western European country may be paid a premium for this service and create extra incentive.

Traveling with a small child, they are going to cry, need the toilet and need food. It may be that the Amsterdam report contradicts some other evidence LE have to make it logistically impossible but I think it's possible that her abductors would trade off their own sanity in managing this upset child against a risk of a sighting. Their profile is likely to be ones of extreme risk takers to begin with. It's possible they could have brought her into the shop in an effort to act casual, a confused and distressed MM (who has possibly been compliant until now) refers to herself as 'Maddie' (perhaps due to her captors calling her that constantly if they were trying to get her to be compliant?) and tries to communicate the best she can.

In all honesty, I think it's probably quite unlikely but it was one of the more credible sightings and was totally bungled.

I still think the key to this whole investigation is going to be the forensics of finance and going through whatever signal intelligence leads have been collected, I think there's likely going to be a sighting somewhere that will be corroborated. We give criminals too much credit when trying to solve these cases and think that because they've gotten away with it, they will always be good at covering their tracks. The extreme risks they take though usually encompass every part of their decision making framework.
 
he1402983 said:
Abductions from families of stable background do happen, it's certainly plausible in the MM case that it could have been a motive (even if that's not how things turned out in the end as German LE suggest).

A strong reason that someone might take this route rather than heading to an impoverished country and picking up some orphaned kids is opportunism. If you've got the network of correct people to act as co-conspirators reliably in a particular region, that's all you need. Indeed a network being able to act in a western European country may be paid a premium for this service and create extra incentive.

Traveling with a small child, they are going to cry, need the toilet and need food. It may be that the Amsterdam report contradicts some other evidence LE have to make it logistically impossible but I think it's possible that her abductors would trade off their own sanity in managing this upset child against a risk of a sighting. Their profile is likely to be ones of extreme risk takers to begin with. It's possible they could have brought her into the shop in an effort to act casual, a confused and distressed MM (who has possibly been compliant until now) refers to herself as 'Maddie' (perhaps due to her captors calling her that constantly if they were trying to get her to be compliant?) and tries to communicate the best she can.

In all honesty, I think it's probably quite unlikely but it was one of the more credible sightings and was totally bungled.

I still think the key to this whole investigation is going to be the forensics of finance and going through whatever signal intelligence leads have been collected, I think there's likely going to be a sighting somewhere that will be corroborated. We give criminals too much credit when trying to solve these cases and think that because they've gotten away with it, they will always be good at covering their tracks. The extreme risks they take though usually encompass every part of their decision making framework.
Click to expand...
I just can't see the sort of organised crime rings that such endeavours would require risking bringing themselves to the attention of the police. Admittedly they seem to have been remarkably lax and lazy in PdL but even so. It would always attract a lot of attention. And from a tourist area full of foreigners - that attention would move beyond the local area

I can see CB taking an opportunity to abduct and attack. I can see him recording and selling what he's done. I can see others being involved locally. But I can't see him having the restraint and self control to take her across Europe. He can't even sit in a busy playground without risking exposing himself
 
Newthoughts said:
I just can't see the sort of organised crime rings that such endeavours would require risking bringing themselves to the attention of the police. Admittedly they seem to have been remarkably lax and lazy in PdL but even so. It would always attract a lot of attention. And from a tourist area full of foreigners - that attention would move beyond the local area

I can see CB taking an opportunity to abduct and attack. I can see him recording and selling what he's done. I can see others being involved locally. But I can't see him having the restraint and self control to take her across Europe. He can't even sit in a busy playground without risking exposing himself
Click to expand...

I agree.
As years go by more and more speculation arises. Filling a void, as we tend to do here. Which is only human instinct & natural behavior.
I think the story of MM will eventually & likely prove very simple and straightforward imo.
 
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We know that CB was lurking (& busted) around playgrounds exposing himself and more...It is common known pedophiles are drawn to places where children gather to play and enjoy themselves.If there is an adult lurking around without a child,it would raise red flags (for me)

It is different around beaches and ice cream shops
Just read that 48 hors before MM vanished,the MM family went to the beach to eat ice cream,because the kids were tired and ice cream -for most of them- is a treat. Gives parents a peace moment and a closure for the day.
It could be... (yeahhh, i know) that the family was spotted there..,followed and watched till an opportunity came along to snatch little Maddie?
Here is a part of 48 hours before MM vanished:
‘One May afternoon in 2007 in Praia da Luz, Portugal, barely 48 hours before their daughter Madeleine disappeared, Kate and Gerry McCann took their three young children down to the beach. It began to rain, and the children were grumpy, but the promise of an ice cream worked its magic.

Kate and the kids sat on a bench as Gerry went over to the shop, about 25 feet away. When he called to Kate to come and give him a hand with the five ice creams, she was "momentarily torn. Would the children be OK on the bench while I nipped over? I hurried across, watching them all the time."

Madeleine
 
Newthoughts said:
I just can't see the sort of organised crime rings that such endeavours would require risking bringing themselves to the attention of the police. Admittedly they seem to have been remarkably lax and lazy in PdL but even so. It would always attract a lot of attention. And from a tourist area full of foreigners - that attention would move beyond the local area

I can see CB taking an opportunity to abduct and attack. I can see him recording and selling what he's done. I can see others being involved locally. But I can't see him having the restraint and self control to take her across Europe. He can't even sit in a busy playground without risking exposing himself
Click to expand...

I think there's always a bit of a bias in how we look at crime networks in that the ones we know about are the ones that are caught or make the press. There's an assumption that these are well organised units with clear direction and professionals on board.

In the MM case, things are often overcomplicated in determining the required expertise to snatch her in the first place. Coordinate it well and all your planning comes into risking a very small time period (in the scale of minutes) in getting this child from the apartment and into a vehicle where you can get cross border before the alarm is raised. There obviously needs to be some prerequisite knowledge in there about minimising forensics and scoping but I don't actually think it takes a very intelligent or even well restrained person to pull that off with a bit of luck.

If it is a case of CB playing a part in selling his services in transporting the child, his involvement could theoretically have ended that evening and someone could have taken over a transport leg. Equally, it could be relatively opportunistic, him and his mates might have had some idea on how they were going to get their pay day from it and taken all of the risk on their side and hoping something lucrative would work out with one of their contacts.

I do think and am hopeful though that if CB is really involved, the German LE will be able to piece together the relationship between him and his friends.
 
worldwatcher said:
We know that CB was lurking (& busted) around playgrounds exposing himself and more...It is common known pedophiles are drawn to places where children gather to play and enjoy themselves.If there is an adult lurking around without a child,it would raise red flags (for me)

It is different around beaches and ice cream shops
Just read that 48 hors before MM vanished,the MM family went to the beach to eat ice cream,because the kids were tired and ice cream -for most of them- is a treat. Gives parents a peace moment and a closure for the day.
It could be... (yeahhh, i know) that the family was spotted there..,followed and watched till an opportunity came along to snatch little Maddie?
Here is a part of 48 hours before MM vanished:
‘One May afternoon in 2007 in Praia da Luz, Portugal, barely 48 hours before their daughter Madeleine disappeared, Kate and Gerry McCann took their three young children down to the beach. It began to rain, and the children were grumpy, but the promise of an ice cream worked its magic.

Kate and the kids sat on a bench as Gerry went over to the shop, about 25 feet away. When he called to Kate to come and give him a hand with the five ice creams, she was "momentarily torn. Would the children be OK on the bench while I nipped over? I hurried across, watching them all the time."

Madeleine
Click to expand...


I agree.
CB's impulsivity and other crimes suggest he's a paraphiliac.
I think he is too impulsive to have taken MM working within an organised sophisticated P ring. JMO.
That's not to say that any possible footage was not distributed though.
 
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Kraktoa said:
If you loom closely at the GG sighting of 2009 I Spain the car mentioned is a Honda Civic. If someone could zoom into the window glass it is reflecting a building near by. On the third floor it resembles JD is, waving to PL and TC is, waving back. If you zoom closer you can see a silver ring that MM had in her toy box in PDL. I wonder if Google earth can reveal the top of the Honda Civic as it might have a clue from the leaf drop patterns in case the car had been parked near TKs home in Germany.

This thread is becoming a joke.
Click to expand...

Oye. Can someone pls help me - who are JD, PL & TC? I feel like I should know this, and I might have, but I've forgotten? Silver ring in a toy box? I'm so lost. :(
 
tedtink said:
I agree.
CB's impulsivity and other crimes suggest he's a paraphiliac.
I think he is too impulsive to have taken MM working within an organised sophisticated P ring. JMO.
That's not to say that any possible footage was not distributed though.
Click to expand...

Disastrous and bigmouth CB job might just have been entering the house and delivering child to someone waiting. No way anything would go wrong for him as long as he wasn't caught entering or leaving house.
 
MENDEL said:
What's Holger Weil's role in the series? That's from March 1995. Maybe he watched it in prison.
Click to expand...
Holger is the serial woman killer that is on the run for the police... he fakes suicide so he can escape the police... that's what i understand, my Knowledge of the German language is not sufficient enough to understand the whole serie or the details.

This is the description in English.

The suicide attempt by the infamous woman murderer Holger Weil is front page news. Dr. Friar Tamm, who made a psychological report on the criminal during Weil's trial, does not believe this so-called suicide attempt and asks Uli Fichte to investigate the matter further. When Uli visits Weil in the clinic, however, he appears to have disappeared and Uli is not alone in his search for him. The police are after Weil, but also Kurt Böttcher, the brother of one of Weil's victims. What none of the pursuers know is that Weil owns something that can be vital to others

I have an idea that CB could felt the same as Holger from the serie, killing woman and outsmart the police.

It's just a guess from me.. i was just thinking why CB used the name Holger Wahnsinn.. the name must be some kind of inspiration for him.. it's not just a random name... it does mean something to him.
 
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Zolex said:
Holger is the serial woman killer that is on the run for the police... he fakes suicide so he can escape the police... that's what i understand, my Knowledge of the German language is not sufficient enough to understand the whole serie or the details.

I have an idea that CB could felt the same as Holger from the serie, killing woman and outsmart the police
Click to expand...

That makes sense. Wahnsinn mit Methode (Methodical insane) is Holger?

Accurate target shooting, Zolex.
 
he1402983 said:
I think there's always a bit of a bias in how we look at crime networks in that the ones we know about are the ones that are caught or make the press. There's an assumption that these are well organised units with clear direction and professionals on board.

In the MM case, things are often overcomplicated in determining the required expertise to snatch her in the first place. Coordinate it well and all your planning comes into risking a very small time period (in the scale of minutes) in getting this child from the apartment and into a vehicle where you can get cross border before the alarm is raised. There obviously needs to be some prerequisite knowledge in there about minimising forensics and scoping but I don't actually think it takes a very intelligent or even well restrained person to pull that off with a bit of luck.

If it is a case of CB playing a part in selling his services in transporting the child, his involvement could theoretically have ended that evening and someone could have taken over a transport leg. Equally, it could be relatively opportunistic, him and his mates might have had some idea on how they were going to get their pay day from it and taken all of the risk on their side and hoping something lucrative would work out with one of their contacts.

I do think and am hopeful though that if CB is really involved, the German LE will be able to piece together the relationship between him and his friends.
Click to expand...

This makes a lot of sense, except the drip drip to media - presumably wilfully deliberate - has been to focus on CB as a violent pedophile. Granted, he does seem to be that, but why are we fed that so unrelentingly unless it’s relevant to the outcome? Similarly, police seem sure MM’s death happened fast, which makes me think she didn’t get very far at all.
 
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