Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #20

[SuperdadV8]

Could that be counted as 'material evidence'?

Yes, i would call any chat-protocol a suspect has made about a possible crime as material evidence. Especially if it contains exclusive knowledge, that only the perp should have.

Especially if it may had happened on a special site with special content and changing experiences and/or material is the central issue. So i can understand, what makes HCW so sure.

This, together with forensic evidence should provide a charge. But they do not have forensic evidence yet. But they keep it as a abduction- and murder case. So the chat confession may had been very "graphic"?!

Maybe the evidence they have could at least provide an abuse, but i think they want to go all the way to keep him in for a much longer time.

 

[Dlk79]

An experienced burglar/CB would act the soonest possible after the parents would have left for dinner and everyone seated at the table. Should a check to the apartment impede the burglar to act then he would postpone to immediately after that check.

The MCs left round 20:35. They were the first to arrive at the TB.

The last ones arrived at 20:50. This meant that it would be soon time to carry out a check, therefore not wise to sneak into the apartment now.

The next and first check was at 21:05 at the back, at the window(s). Immediately after GM carried out his check entering from the door(s).

Right after this check would have been the right time to pounce. IMO Tannerman could have been the abductor.

(But I'm still wondering about those 90 secs)

There's the possibility that CB planned to get into the apartment as soon as the coast was clear and all the group were seated. From there, he would then hide and wait until the next check was complete before making his escape. We know from his ex that he hid under her bed, he may have done something similar here. Either for kicks or to give himself maximum time to get away.

There's also the possibility that he knew nothing of MM, the Tapas group or their routines and the event was not really planned. He may have simply broke in to rob the place initially, then was forced to hide as someone enetered. A number of horrible things could have happened next and I won't elaborate, but it could be that at some point MM woke up and began to scream. It may be that CB killed her there and took her body with him fearing his DNA was left on her from a struggle.

 

[Victoria Chambers]

There's the possibility that CB planned to get into the apartment as soon as the coast was clear and all the group were seated. From there, he would then hide and wait until the next check was complete before making his escape. We know from his ex that he hid under her bed, he may have done something similar here. Either for kicks or to give himself maximum time to get away.

There's also the possibility that he knew nothing of MM, the Tapas group or their routines and the event was not really planned. He may have simply broke in to rob the place initially, then was forced to hide as someone enetered. A number of horrible things could have happened next and I won't elaborate, but it could be that at some point MM woke up and began to scream. It may be that CB killed her there and took her body with him fearing his DNA was left on her from a struggle.

I just can't imagine a scenario where a toddler awakens to a burglar that ends in a struggle. Any burglar must have had it run through their mind as a "what would happen if..?". Most burglaries-gone-wrong involve confrontation with another adult whereby it escalates in the desperation to get out. Even if MM woke and screamed, a burglar would just flee. I just cannot see this happening without a single drawer having been pulled out. Whoever took her, went in there to take her IMO. X

 

[Scorpiette]

Or behind the sofa ???

One of the SY dogs indicated something behind the sofa...

 

[redplanet]

An experienced burglar/CB would act the soonest possible after the parents would have left for dinner and everyone seated at the table. Should a check to the apartment impede the burglar to act then he would postpone to immediately after that check.

The MCs left round 20:35. They were the first to arrive at the TB.

The last ones arrived at 20:50. This meant that it would be soon time to carry out a check, therefore not wise to sneak into the apartment now.

The next and first check was at 21:05 at the back, at the window(s). Immediately after GM carried out his check entering from the door(s).

Right after this check would have been the right time to pounce. IMO Tannerman could have been the abductor.

(But I'm still wondering about those 90 secs)

IMO one might propose that the optimum time for an intruder to enter the flat was immediately after observing GM and KM setting off together to the restaurant?

 

[redplanet]

I just can't imagine a scenario where a toddler awakens to a burglar that ends in a struggle. Any burglar must have had it run through their mind as a "what would happen if..?". Most burglaries-gone-wrong involve confrontation with another adult whereby it escalates in the desperation to get out. Even if MM woke and screamed, a burglar would just flee. I just cannot see this happening without a single drawer having been pulled out. Whoever took her, went in there to take her IMO. X

Maybe some kids in such a scenario might run to the parents?

 

[redplanet]

Presumably he would prefer to enter after sunset? Sunset was at 20:25 and it continued to get darker after that.

 

[Chiatos]

IMO one might propose that the optimum time for an intruder to enter the flat was immediately after observing GM and KM setting off together to the restaurant?

Ideally yes!
But taking into account that the MC's were part of a larger group, and knowing their habits and the way the apartments were being checked from the back windows, the coast could have been considered to be clear at another instant.

 

[redplanet]

After MM parents go out at about 20.25, and before 22:00, how many people passed the carpark side of the building?
DP once, FP once, DW once, ROB twice, JT fourtimes, MO fivetimes, RO once, (that's 14 before even counting non-group-members)

 

[C.greek]

What i am wondering is how did nobody see the van? Have there been any witness statements about the van that CB was using?

 

[Newthoughts]

I just can't imagine a scenario where a toddler awakens to a burglar that ends in a struggle. Any burglar must have had it run through their mind as a "what would happen if..?". Most burglaries-gone-wrong involve confrontation with another adult whereby it escalates in the desperation to get out. Even if MM woke and screamed, a burglar would just flee. I just cannot see this happening without a single drawer having been pulled out. Whoever took her, went in there to take her IMO. X

I agree. We know the things he's been convicted of. We know the rape he's been convicted of showed a degree of planning.

No signs at all of a burglary.

 

[SuperdadV8]

What i am wondering is how did nobody see the van? Have there been any witness statements about the van that CB was using?

IF he had parked some vehicle behind 5A where the window was located, i would assume most of the sleeping rooms in that complex led to that spot. Maybe too early for someone to look out of the window before going asleep?!

 

[SuperdadV8]

Also interesting that in my opinion, german prosecuters aren't really looking for a body. What do they know? HCW seemed a bit surprised of the PJ well search IMO.

According to CB's known paedo chat from 2013, he boasted about "destroying" evidence, not hiding it or something like that. In germany, the word "vernichten" points out to an action, that destroys "evidence" for all time. Otherwise you would likely more say "loswerden", what just means to get rid of it in some way. Destroying has a much more progressive meaning.

To destroy forensic evidence it needs a bit more, than digging it up somewhere.

 

[redplanet]

Ideally yes!
But taking into account that the MC's were part of a larger group, and knowing their habits and the way the apartments were being checked from the back windows, the coast could have been considered to be clear at another instant.

If he watched all 4 families all 5 previous evenings, problem is the behaviour varies. One evening they took the kids and ate elsewhere, two evenings an adult skipped the meal, one evening the return home was significantly later.

 

[Chiatos]

What i am wondering is how did nobody see the van? Have there been any witness statements about the van that CB was using?

I doubt CB parked his conspicuous WF just outside the OC. Many people in pdl knew that van and knew its driver. (Knew from afar, not personally).
According to accounts in sexta9.

 

[Chiatos]

If he watched all 4 families all 5 previous evenings, problem is the behaviour varies. One evening they took the kids and ate elsewhere, two evenings an adult skipped the meal, one evening the return home was significantly later.

Yes but they also ate at the TB and their habits were no secret by then.

 

[Victoria Chambers]

Maybe some kids in such a scenario might run to the parents?

It is possible but that begs the question, so where is she now? Did nobody see an hysterical child? Did the first person she run into take her? The only thing that makes sense to me is that a predator entered and left in the shortest time possible taking MM with him. Leaving no trace. But I believe that other people, be it staff or residents in the vicinity of OC do know more than they have ever let on. X

 

[SuperdadV8]

I doubt CB parked his conspicuous WF just outside the OC. Many people in pdl knew that van and knew its driver. (Knew from afar, not personally).
According to accounts in sexta9.

Prosecuters showed the WF and the Jag because of their special appearence according to HCW, not because they are convinced CB used them that evening.

He could have used every kind of vehicle IMO. A smart perp wouldn't use his daily ride.

So the question is, what property he owned on may 2007, after being released from prison. According to reports, he seemed to have spent time after may 2007 in Hannover. He must have moved to his home country in some way. So his abilities to use too many vehicles could have been limited.

Someone must have taken a lot of his goods while he was in prison, if we believe MS. If BP lended him the WF it could be the vehicle he used, but it is certain?

 

[Newthoughts]

IF he had parked some vehicle behind 5A where the window was located, i would assume most of the sleeping rooms in that complex led to that spot. Maybe to early for someone to look out of the window before going asleep?!

Isn't that also where the front door is located. Bedroom window that was found open and front door are located there

It's a difficult one. Ordinarily I'd say if you don't think a major crime is about to be committed you don't really notice what's there. If most people flew I'd guess cars would be rarer and you'd maybe notice one. His camper van would have been fairly noticable so I'd be surprised if he used that. Which suggests a different vehicle or a different parking place?

If he watched all 4 families all 5 previous evenings, problem is the behaviour varies. One evening they took the kids and ate elsewhere, two evenings an adult skipped the meal, one evening the return home was significantly later.

He'd know enough to know the checks were periodic and he'd know enough to know many were just listening walk pasts rather than full visual checks. Nothing was disturbed he just had to get in and out between checks.

Ordinary looking bloke in an area where it's not unusual at all to see parents carrying kids in pyjamas from creches or restaurants. As long as he had enough time to get away before a proper visual checks he would be safe to assume he wouldn't be stopped.

 

[SuperdadV8]

Isn't that also where the front door is located. Bedroom window that was found open and front door are located there

It's a difficult one. Ordinarily I'd say if you don't think a major crime is about to be committed you don't really notice what's there. If most people flew I'd guess cars would be rarer and you'd maybe notice one. His camper van would have been fairly noticable so I'd be surprised if he used that. Which suggests a different vehicle or a different parking place?


He'd know enough to know the checks were periodic and he'd know enough to know many were just listening walk pasts rather than full visual checks. Nothing was disturbed he just had to get in and out between checks.

Ordinary looking bloke in an area where it's not unusual at all to see parents carrying kids in pyjamas from creches or restaurants. As long as he had enough time to get away before a proper visual checks he would be safe to assume he wouldn't be stopped.

IMO the front door/entrance was around the corner!

In Praia da Luz würde man gern vergessen

The window to the sleeping room is directly behind the complex and was very "protected" from taking a view at IMO.