Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #20

[Dlk79]

To a degree, you are changing your theory to include other reasons other than CB avoiding detection, as a reason to kill her. If she starts making noise and no one is there, why kill MM instead of just leaving the apartment. The second option is far more consistent with his previous behaviour and leaving without carrying a stolen child (dead or alive) is significantly less risky than leaving with one which has to be the case in your original theory.

How am I changing my theory? All of the reasons I just listed are consistent with CB trying to avoid detection in one way or another. I'm just giving some various possibilities of how the course of events "might" have panned out.

My point about her making a noise when nobody was there and CB still trying to silence her is that how does CB know nobody was around to hear it? Just because nobody is in the apartment, doesn't mean someone wasn't outside and close enough to hear. Maybe he could even hear people outside himself. And like I said, he may have just panicked in that moment.

And whether he killed her intentionally or not, I 'm just giving some possible reasons why he might have then chosen to take the body. i.e. DNA from the abuse or, DNA from her potentially scramming him as he tried to silence her. Of course, they might also be the motive for killing her too.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

How am I changing my theory? All of the reasons I just listed are consistent with CB trying to avoid detection in one way or another. I'm just giving some various possibilities of how the course of events "might" have panned out.

My point about her making a noise when nobody was there and CB still trying to silence her is that how does CB know nobody was around to hear it? Just because nobody is in the apartment, doesn't mean someone wasn't outside and close enough to hear. Maybe he could even hear people outside himself. And like I said, he may have just panicked in that moment.

And whether he killed her intentionally or not, I 'm just giving some possible reasons why he might have then chosen to take the body. i.e. DNA from the abuse or, DNA from her potentially scramming him as he tried to silence her. Of course, they might also be the motive for killing her too.

I did say “... to some degree” because there is good reason to restrain and accidentally suffocate her in the scenario where another person is in the apartment checking to see if MM and her siblings are okay - immediate danger would have required an immediate and decisive response. IMO, the reason to kill her when no one was in the apartment lessens because the risk of being caught is significantly reduced - this seems to be what you have expanded your theory to include. Plus, getting away from risky situations is consistent with CB’s known previous behaviour.

As I mentioned in my initial response, the part of your theory which troubles me most is that CB had to have made a judgement that taking the corpse and carrying it through PDL in the evening was less risky than leaving it and getting caught forensically. That or he panicked and took the body without thinking which I don’t think fits his career criminal history. Both options seem unlikely but the case has remained unsolved despite 13 years of expensive investigation by two and now three police forces - we probably should expect the illogical.

I simply think that in your theory, it makes the most sense that CB was in the apartment during MO’s check. At this time, he accidentally killed MM while avoiding detection and did so in a manner (suffocation, silently and leaving no evidence, I still think this is problematic) which didn’t arouse any suspicion from MO - as mentioned previously there are supporting factors from MOs statement and subsequent “disturbance” comment. If this occurred then it fits the timeline that CB left on foot carrying MM and was perhaps spotted by the Smiths. Again, exiting with the corpse IMO seems unusual but is still possible given some of the reasons you’ve put forward.

 

[redplanet]

and an old yellow/mustard car also I think ?

In mid 2005 he began driving a battered old VW estate car, colour yellow/mustard
PressReader.com - Your favorite newspapers and magazines.

 

[redplanet]

How am I changing my theory? All of the reasons I just listed are consistent with CB trying to avoid detection in one way or another. I'm just giving some various possibilities of how the course of events "might" have panned out.

My point about her making a noise when nobody was there and CB still trying to silence her is that how does CB know nobody was around to hear it? Just because nobody is in the apartment, doesn't mean someone wasn't outside and close enough to hear. Maybe he could even hear people outside himself. And like I said, he may have just panicked in that moment.

And whether he killed her intentionally or not, I 'm just giving some possible reasons why he might have then chosen to take the body. i.e. DNA from the abuse or, DNA from her potentially scramming him as he tried to silence her. Of course, they might also be the motive for killing her too.

On the subject of hearing people outside: if he was in the apartment during the GM check he would next (a few seconds after end of check) begin hearing the chat outside between GM and JW, IMO.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

On the subject of hearing people outside: if he was in the apartment during the GM check he would next (a few seconds after end of check) begin hearing the chat outside between GM and JW, IMO.

That is a good point, I imagine that GM is loud too.

In the PJ Files, MO states that he went on his 9:25pm check with ROB. It possible, even likely that if CB was in 5A, he heard them talking on the way to do their checks and therefore he had more time to prepare for MO’s check.

I still think that the characteristics of each check make it more likely that CB was in the apartment during MO’s check rather than GM’s.

It is of course possible he was inside during both checks and that would explain the discrepancy on how open the door was. Further, hearing the conversation between GM and JW he knew the coast wasn’t clear and he would have also have had a really good reason to keep MM quiet - her Dad was outside her window!

I think that these are interesting thoughts ...

 

[Denis R Tandib]

That is a good point, I imagine that GM is loud too.

In the PJ Files, MO states that he went on his 9:25pm check with ROB. It possible, even likely that if CB was in 5A, he heard them talking on the way to do their checks and therefore he had more time to prepare for MO’s check.

I still think that the characteristics of each check make it more likely that CB was in the apartment during MO’s check rather than GM’s.

It is of course possible he was inside during both checks and that would explain the discrepancy on how open the door was. Further, hearing the conversation between GM and JW he knew the coast wasn’t clear and he would have also have had a really good reason to keep MM quiet - her Dad was outside her window!

I think that these are interesting thoughts ...

This line of thought i.e. CB in 5A for an extended period of time and hearing the comings and going’s of people outside could IMO explain why the window and curtains were open not during GM’s check but by the time MO got there. It’s possible they were opened to check if the coast was clear and then perhaps as an exit ... it would have been easier to exit via the window with an unconscious/dead child (Apologies for the mental imagery) than a sleeping one.

 

[Newthoughts]

What is more plausible and what happened could be two very different things. As Dlk mentioned before, some of it could be dumb luck on CB’s part and he has IMO opinion put up good points which are supported by some facts in the case. A bungled burglary/opportunistic abuse with accidental death and luck from an evidence perspective doesn’t have the perhaps alluring qualities of a well planned abduction by a sophisticated paedo ring for dark web productions but given what we know about CB, it is equally as possible.

I don't think for one minute it was a 'well' planned abduction for a sophisticated paedo ring. That's a complete misrepresentation of my opinion.

It didn't need a criminal mastermind, or detailed plans because IMO MM was, tragically, a very easy target. But it did need an element of pre planning.

It is, sadly, the case that people like CB can plan awful crimes just for their own satisfaction. Lone paedophiles spend months grooming children and their parents.

A child was taken leaving no obvious forensic evidence. Nothing else was taken. Her siblings weren't awake or distressed at any of the checks - when all was reported to be quiet.

The main suspect is currently in prison for a planned rape. He seems to have form for child abuse, possession of child *advertiser censored* and getting people to dispose of evidence for him. He's groomed a least one single parent to get access to their child. He is a suspect in another planned rape (HB). He does appear to plan his sexual crimes. That doesn't mean he plans 'well' or 'carefully' or anything else. MM was not a difficult target by any stretch of the imagination.

Witnesses saw somebody hanging around in the days beforehand. One saw somebody closing the gate carefully.

The ideal time for an opportunistic burglary in a tourist area is surely during the day when people are out.

The McCanns appt was an ideal location anyway but if somebody had become aware of the parents behaviour each night it becomes even more ideal. Check it out a few times and act

So whether it his goal was abduction or abuse in situ in my opinion is it was planned.

It would be a hell of a lot of luck for someone with CBs predilections to just come across an empty appt with a small child in if he was just out burgling. Even more lucky if he was out breaking into flats looking for victims.

 

[Newthoughts]

What kind of signs of a struggle would you expect to see though? We are taking about a helpless toddler. Taking the scenario of a suffocation or strangulation (most likely methods if an unplanned murder is what took place), where no bleeding would have occurred, what other inidcations might you find at the scene to be able to say that it had happened? A ruffled bedsheet doesn't take much fixing, besides it might not have even happened on her bed, maybe she tried to run to her parents room for example.

You mention there would be evidence of an accidental death if it had happened, but potentially there is. The cadaver dog's alert. It's what led the initial investigation to think MM had died in the apartment. And it is still in theory possible that the dog might have picked up an early scent in this unplanned murder scenario.

Though it would be easy for a grown man to overpower, suffocate or strangle a small child, hopefully quickly, I think it would cause more damage to that child than a grown man overpowering someone bigger. I think there would have been some accidentally some blood. Not a lot but some

The blood dog is good if blood weren't so common in families. Shaving cuts, nosebleeds, kids falling over.

I would accept the cadaver dog more readily if it hadn't then reacted so strongly to the McCanns hire car.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

I don't think for one minute it was a 'well' planned abduction for a sophisticated paedo ring. That's a complete misrepresentation of my opinion.

It didn't need a criminal mastermind, or detailed plans because IMO MM was, tragically, a very easy target. But it did need an element of pre planning.

It is, sadly, the case that people like CB can plan awful crimes just for their own satisfaction. Lone paedophiles spend months grooming children and their parents.

A child was taken leaving no obvious forensic evidence. Nothing else was taken. Her siblings weren't awake or distressed at any of the checks - when all was reported to be quiet.

The main suspect is currently in prison for a planned rape. He seems to have form for child abuse, possession of child *advertiser censored* and getting people to dispose of evidence for him. He's groomed a least one single parent to get access to their child. He is a suspect in another planned rape (HB). He does appear to plan his sexual crimes. That doesn't mean he plans 'well' or 'carefully' or anything else. MM was not a difficult target by any stretch of the imagination.

Witnesses saw somebody hanging around in the days beforehand. One saw somebody closing the gate carefully.

The ideal time for an opportunistic burglary in a tourist area is surely during the day when people are out.

The McCanns appt was an ideal location anyway but if somebody had become aware of the parents behaviour each night it becomes even more ideal. Check it out a few times and act

So whether it his goal was abduction or abuse in situ in my opinion is it was planned.

It would be a hell of a lot of luck for someone with CBs predilections to just come across an empty appt with a small child in if he was just out burgling. Even more lucky if he was out breaking into flats looking for victims.

I’m sorry, I didn’t mean you specifically in relation to the paedo pardon ring comment. Those things are mentioned regularly on this forum and for all I know, they may be right. My point was more that there could just as easily be a simple explanation.

You could be right on the planning piece, I only reject planning from an abduction point of view if (And granted, it’s a big if) CB left on foot -Smithman sighting supports this part of the theory.

I don’t think I’m disagreeing with you entirely. I don’t think a burglary or abuse inside the flat would need much of a plan, I feel fairly sure CB would have done both in the past. That said, if abuse was his intention, he would have needed to know there was a child in the apartment and that the parents of the child wouldn’t be.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Though it would be easy for a grown man to overpower, suffocate or strangle a small child, hopefully quickly, I think it would cause more damage to that child than a grown man overpowering someone bigger. I think there would have been some accidentally some blood. Not a lot but some

The blood dog is good if blood weren't so common in families. Shaving cuts, nosebleeds, kids falling over.

I would accept the cadaver dog more readily if it hadn't then reacted so strongly to the McCanns hire car.

Suffocation might not leave any traces:
http://www.napsa-now.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/102.pdf

 

[mrjitty]

I am actually wondering, why they cannot let her parents know about how MM died so that they can start accepting the fact and find some kind of peace, regardless if CB is charged or not?

This is my biggest scepticism with the whole deal.

What can be so secret unless they actually do not 100% know this at all.

 

[mrjitty]

Because people come forward, as they have done, and its several different people that put CB's name forward, that's how a lot of cases get solved, especially when those said people fall out etc, the difference with this case is how old it is, but now we need that bit more, and it's not about which window or door break in, or door unlocked like I said before, whatabout when they found girls swimwear in Germany, people could of come forward about that, whether it's just someone remembering that happening, or more sinister, we don't know, could it be that CB took a swimsuit of mm, let's face it, GM and km may not of noticed, as they were so distraught, they didn't notice.
We do need to think a little out the box

That is exactly my point.

Just because his number is in the trawl (along with many others) does not take you very far, because you need some way to connect him to the case. You can't just start 'searching for evidence" against CB and all the other dozens of potential suspects - especially without cause.

The break in the case came (we think) because someone talked many years later.

 

[mrjitty]

I guess the problem at the time was there seemed to be so many suspicious looking people hanging around. Most were probably innocent, so how to pick out the genuine odd ones?!? After a crime, it’s not unusual for people to be going about normal business later being seen as dodgy as memory is so fluid and malleable based on later knowledge

That's the most laughable aspect of the theories down the years

There are so many suspicious gypsies, eastern europeans, pockmarked men, burglars etc etc hanging around OC its amazing anyone could get a moments relaxation there!

 

[Chiatos]

Regarding CB possibly hiding in the apartment during a check by GM and colleague(s): nobody smelled CB's presence.
(But doesn't make it impossible.)

Here is a description of MM's bed by officer Roque who arrived the same evening together with officer Pacheco:
During the search he (Roque) did not find anything strange apart from the bedclothes on Madeleine's bed, which were too tidy, it appeared that she had been picked up from or had left the bed with great care. There was a mark on the sheet that appeared to be made by a child's body.
P.J. POLICE FILES: JOSE MARIA BATISA ROQUE STATEMENT

 

[Dlk79]

I did say “... to some degree” because there is good reason to restrain and accidentally suffocate her in the scenario where another person is in the apartment checking to see if MM and her siblings are okay - immediate danger would have required an immediate and decisive response. IMO, the reason to kill her when no one was in the apartment lessens because the risk of being caught is significantly reduced - this seems to be what you have expanded your theory to include. Plus, getting away from risky situations is consistent with CB’s known previous behaviour.

As I mentioned in my initial response, the part of your theory which troubles me most is that CB had to have made a judgement that taking the corpse and carrying it through PDL in the evening was less risky than leaving it and getting caught forensically. That or he panicked and took the body without thinking which I don’t think fits his career criminal history. Both options seem unlikely but the case has remained unsolved despite 13 years of expensive investigation by two and now three police forces - we probably should expect the illogical.

I simply think that in your theory, it makes the most sense that CB was in the apartment during MO’s check. At this time, he accidentally killed MM while avoiding detection and did so in a manner (suffocation, silently and leaving no evidence, I still think this is problematic) which didn’t arouse any suspicion from MO - as mentioned previously there are supporting factors from MOs statement and subsequent “disturbance” comment. If this occurred then it fits the timeline that CB left on foot carrying MM and was perhaps spotted by the Smiths. Again, exiting with the corpse IMO seems unusual but is still possible given some of the reasons you’ve put forward.

I'm not committing to any particular sequence of events of what took place in 5A at this stage, just giving some alternative options, most of which I've mentioned before.

At the moment, the only points of my theory (if you want to call it that) which I'd commit to are -
1. CB didn't enter the apartment with the intention of kidnap but for some other reason (burglary or abuse in situ).
2. While in the apartment, CB attempted some form of abuse upon MM.
3. MM woke up and CB killed her before taking her body away from the scene.

As for the hows, whys and whens, I am only giving options and am yet to convince myself on any one specific sequence of what played out at present. There are a number of scenarios that I've mentioned which are plausible though as far as I'm concerned. The same goes for the one you are favouring.

Just touching on the point a few people have made about why CB might have done such a thing, or why didn't he just run etc. It must be remembered that we are not talking about a normal mind here. What might seem logical or rational to us, is not necessarily the case in someone like CB whose motives and deviances are difficult to comprehend.

It also can't be ruled out that he was not of sound mind at the time. Under the influence of drink and/or drugs, even people with no prior history can commit the most heinous of acts, things they would never do while sober.

As for being in keeping with his MO of previous crimes, I'm not sure which ones are comparible to this hypothetical scenario. The circumstances of the ones we know about all have different variables. He alledgedly ran from the scene with the schoolgirls, but not did not run from the playground for example.

The crimes most similar to the scenario being proposed here are the sex attacks on young british girls in their beds across the area in the years prior. Admittedly there is no evidence that these were commited by CB, but we can possibly learn something about how such an intruder might react to a victim waking up.

What we know about these attacks is that several of the girls did wake up. They were able to describe the intruder and in some cases the abuse that happened (implying it may have continued after they were awake). We know that in at least one case, the intruder spoke to the girl and tried to placate her. I can't find many details of exactly what happened after the victims woke, how long the intruder stayed, whether they screamed, how the intruder exited etc. But it appears the response wasn't to immediately run away in at least some of the attacks. And this would have been where the parents were in the same apartment, where the logic of immediately fleeing is more probable than if the child was alone. In other words, for him, the urge to continue the abuse outweighed the risk of the now awake child potentially alerting someone.

 

[Lilly b]

Something we haven't mention
What about the twins, if he had gone in, just to touch etc, how do we know he didn't touch them, it would seem he went in just for MM if that's the case, don't you think
If he killed mm in the apartment, he would just of left her there, he wanted/needed her alive imo

 

[Denis R Tandib]

I'm not committing to any particular sequence of events of what took place in 5A at this stage, just giving some alternative options, most of which I've mentioned before.

At the moment, the only points of my theory (if you want to call it that) which I'd commit to are -
1. CB didn't enter the apartment with the intention of kidnap but for some other reason (burglary or abuse in situ).
2. While in the apartment, CB attempted some form of abuse upon MM.
3. MM woke up and CB killed her before taking her body away from the scene.

As for the hows, whys and whens, I am only giving options and am yet to convince myself on any one specific sequence of what played out at present. There are a number of scenarios that I've mentioned which are plausible though as far as I'm concerned. The same goes for the one you are favouring.

Just touching on the point a few people have made about why CB might have done such a thing, or why didn't he just run etc. It must be remembered that we are not talking about a normal mind here. What might seem logical or rational to us, is not necessarily the case in someone like CB whose motives and deviances are difficult to comprehend.

It also can't be ruled out that he was not of sound mind at the time. Under the influence of drink and/or drugs, even people with no prior history can commit the most heinous of acts, things they would never do while sober.

As for being in keeping with his MO of previous crimes, I'm not sure which ones are comparible to this hypothetical scenario. The circumstances of the ones we know about all have different variables. He alledgedly ran from the scene with the schoolgirls, but not did not run from the playground for example.

The crimes most similar to the scenario being proposed here are the sex attacks on young british girls in their beds across the area in the years prior. Admittedly there is no evidence that these were commited by CB, but we can possibly learn something about how such an intruder might react to a victim waking up.

What we know about these attacks is that several of the girls did wake up. They were able to describe the intruder and in some cases the abuse that happened (implying it may have continued after they were awake). We know that in at least one case, the intruder spoke to the girl and tried to placate her. I can't find many details of exactly what happened after the victims woke, how long the intruder stayed, whether they screamed, how the intruder exited etc. But it appears the response wasn't to immediately run away in at least some of the attacks. And this would have been where the parents were in the same apartment, where the logic of immediately fleeing is more probable than if the child was alone. In other words, for him, the urge to continue the abuse outweighed the risk of the now awake child potentially alerting someone.

I agree with the abnormal mind thinking and I’ve tried to think what CB would think/do - it complicated things.

I thought that he was prevented from escaping the playground incident by the parents? Also, I know he is only a suspect in the beach incident with the 10-year-old girl but this perp ran too.

My point was really that in a situation where he was in the apartment when either checker came in he absolutely had to prevent MM making a noise. It seems to me reasonable that he would likely continue the abuse without the threat of getting caught. Otherwise things shift from accidental to intentional killing which is of course possible but less likely IMO.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Something we haven't mention
What about the twins, if he had gone in, just to touch etc, how do we know he didn't touch them, it would seem he went in just for MM if that's the case, don't you think
If he killed mm in the apartment, he would just of left her there, he wanted/needed her alive imo

Something we haven't mention
What about the twins, if he had gone in, just to touch etc, how do we know he didn't touch them, it would seem he went in just for MM if that's the case, don't you think
If he killed mm in the apartment, he would just of left her there, he wanted/needed her alive imo

I don’t think we know or can say if he touched the twins, I don’t think there is any evidence to say anything happened to them. A couple of things come to mind: perhaps infants/babies were not his thing (sounds awful, apologies) or it could just have been a convenience thing, why bend over a porta-cot on the floor when there is a child in a bed.

Really who knows how he wanted her. The line of thinking in the recent posts are based more on an accidental killing so you maybe right that he wanted her alive. I agree that leaving with her corpse is difficult to comprehend.

 

[mrjitty]

I'm not committing to any particular sequence of events of what took place in 5A at this stage, just giving some alternative options, most of which I've mentioned before.

At the moment, the only points of my theory (if you want to call it that) which I'd commit to are -
1. CB didn't enter the apartment with the intention of kidnap but for some other reason (burglary or abuse in situ).
2. While in the apartment, CB attempted some form of abuse upon MM.
3. MM woke up and CB killed her before taking her body away from the scene.

As for the hows, whys and whens, I am only giving options and am yet to convince myself on any one specific sequence of what played out at present. There are a number of scenarios that I've mentioned which are plausible though as far as I'm concerned. The same goes for the one you are favouring.

Just touching on the point a few people have made about why CB might have done such a thing, or why didn't he just run etc. It must be remembered that we are not talking about a normal mind here. What might seem logical or rational to us, is not necessarily the case in someone like CB whose motives and deviances are difficult to comprehend.

It also can't be ruled out that he was not of sound mind at the time. Under the influence of drink and/or drugs, even people with no prior history can commit the most heinous of acts, things they would never do while sober.

As for being in keeping with his MO of previous crimes, I'm not sure which ones are comparible to this hypothetical scenario. The circumstances of the ones we know about all have different variables. He alledgedly ran from the scene with the schoolgirls, but not did not run from the playground for example.

The crimes most similar to the scenario being proposed here are the sex attacks on young british girls in their beds across the area in the years prior. Admittedly there is no evidence that these were commited by CB, but we can possibly learn something about how such an intruder might react to a victim waking up.

What we know about these attacks is that several of the girls did wake up. They were able to describe the intruder and in some cases the abuse that happened (implying it may have continued after they were awake). We know that in at least one case, the intruder spoke to the girl and tried to placate her. I can't find many details of exactly what happened after the victims woke, how long the intruder stayed, whether they screamed, how the intruder exited etc. But it appears the response wasn't to immediately run away in at least some of the attacks. And this would have been where the parents were in the same apartment, where the logic of immediately fleeing is more probable than if the child was alone. In other words, for him, the urge to continue the abuse outweighed the risk of the now awake child potentially alerting someone.

Something that happens in many other cases is the killer has no fixed plan for murder, but rather loses control in the moment.

In many of these cases the body will be dumped somewhere with no attempt to conceal.

Concealment of the body is usually to conceal the relationship between the victim and accused, (i.e the manner of death) or forensics.

 

[Lilly b]

I don’t think we know or can say if he touched the twins, I don’t think there is any evidence to say anything happened to them. A couple of things come to mind: perhaps infants/babies were not his thing (sounds awful, apologies) or it could just have been a convenience thing, why bend over a porta-cot on the floor when there is a child in a bed.

Really who knows how he wanted her. The line of thinking in the recent posts are based more on an accidental killing so you maybe right that he wanted her alive. I agree that leaving with her corpse is difficult to comprehend.

Yes, agreed, didn't necessarily want to discuss the twins. I was more pointing out it was specifically mm he was after