Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #21

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Looking at these pics, if an abductor hid behind the door, it would be tight. He would have to breathe right in and probably rise up against the wall. There also doesn't seem to be anything for him to grab onto to pull the closet door shut if he were inside there. He could do it if the bedroom door was ajar I suppose. But verry risky to say the least X
 

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Why does it look impossible? I mean, he may not necessarily have been there when GM did his check, but there are a few places he could have hidden if he was. Behind MM's door seems the most obvious. If he was in that room when he hears the patio door opening (behind the curtains) he'd have enought time to quickly get behind MM's door before GM has closed the patio door and moved past the curtains to see into the apartment. Plenty of time if he heard the gate at the bottom of the steps first. GM has even pondered whether an intruder might have been standing behind the door while he was there. And I'm not making out this was some kind of 6th sense, just that GM (who knows the apartment layout and his own mindset that night) believes it was plausible for someone to have hidden there when he came in.

He could also have hidden in GMs room, or in the kitchen which was also walled off with only a small hatch. Depends where he was in the apartment when GM entered. We're not talking about a scenario whereby CB could guarantee not being found, but if he was in there, his initial instinct would be to hide. Whether he then gets found is down to luck and IMO, CB got his fair share of it that night.

Whichever way you slice it, someone going into 5A with all the foot traffic that night got lucky. IMO the scenario we are discussing now, where CB used the lounge/diner and kids bedroom windows to look out on the the exterior of 5A is less susceptible to luck than a clinical in and out. Again, IMO this is a professional burglar’s trick where the primary aim is to exit properties without getting seen or caught and doing so quickly is a secondary consideration. This kind of thinking, while unusual to us, is standard operating procedure for someone like CB.
 
Whichever way you slice it, someone going into 5A with all the foot traffic that night got lucky. IMO the scenario we are discussing now, where CB used the lounge/diner and kids bedroom windows to look out on the the exterior of 5A is less susceptible to luck than a clinical in and out. Again, IMO this is a professional burglar’s trick where the primary aim is to exit properties without getting seen or caught and doing so quickly is a secondary consideration. This kind of thinking, while unusual to us, is standard operating procedure for someone like CB.

I'm not sure why him using the lounge and kids bedroom windows to check the coast is clear wouldn't be part of an abduction? Surely part of any successful clinical in and out crime is a quick check that the coast is clear? Even more so when carrying a child rather than cameras and passports.

Getting in quickly and out again safely would involve exactly the same motives and methods whether he remains there for hours or he grabs his target and runs. I can't see the difference. But the risks of getting caught do increase every minute he stays.

Plus we have no evidence at all that he was in the lounge diner or any other room anyway so I'm not sure where that came from?. The McCanns, who noticed something different about a door noticed nothing at all about that room and I'm sure the first thing any parent would do would be tear every room apart checking so they will have looked.
 
Do you accept that CB could have been in the apartment during MO’s check?

Do you accept that GM did not go into his bedroom during his check?
MOs check was a minimal glance through a partly open door. He's said as much. They weren't expecting children to disappear. So anyone could have been in the bedroom - or not. MM might have been gone by the n

GM didn't go to his room or he'd have said so. But he did enter the small holiday apartment thru a door that pretty much faces the whole appt. A three bedroom house maybe CB could have hidden. But a small holiday appt? I find that hard to believe.

CBs rapes took time and planning. The grooming of his gf to abuse her daughter took time and planning. He's a vile creature. The rewards are greater if he takes MM
 
I'm not sure why him using the lounge and kids bedroom windows to check the coast is clear wouldn't be part of an abduction? Surely part of any successful clinical in and out crime is a quick check that the coast is clear? Even more so when carrying a child rather than cameras and passports.

Getting in quickly and out again safely would involve exactly the same motives and methods whether he remains there for hours or he grabs his target and runs. I can't see the difference. But the risks of getting caught do increase every minute he stays.

Plus we have no evidence at all that he was in the lounge diner or any other room anyway so I'm not sure where that came from?. The McCanns, who noticed something different about a door noticed nothing at all about that room and I'm sure the first thing any parent would do would be tear every room apart checking so they will have looked.

Okay, the most recent suggestion on the planned abduction theory from @Victoria Chambers suggested minimum two person abduction with a car. IMO, in this scenario someone waits for an opportune time to enter. At this same time , someone else is waiting at the window to receive MM so the chances of being seen are already double - correct?

The intruder cannot hang around inside because his accomplice is waiting outside the window. This means that the entry and exit must happen closely together thereby at least doubling the amount of time, in one operation, that the abduction took. The pressure is on and there isn’t much time to make the same checks discussed in the more opportunistic abduction.

No evidence he was in the lounge? Unless he enters AND exits via the window, he must go into the lounge.

What has been discussed on the opportunistic abduction connects a number of facts detailed in the statements, potentially the Smithman sighting and many of the comments made by HCW. It’s also the preferred theory of SY.

Respectfully, if you can present a theory that connects facts from witness statements and what we know about CB to a planned abduction, please explain it.

I am sincere with this request, I really want to understand what happened to the poor little girl who I think was stolen from her family and am completely open to different views. I just want to know that you have thoughts to explain what did happen, not just thoughts on what didn’t happen, the latter is far easier to put forward than the former.
 
MOs check was a minimal glance through a partly open door. He's said as much. They weren't expecting children to disappear. So anyone could have been in the bedroom - or not. MM might have been gone by the n

GM didn't go to his room or he'd have said so. But he did enter the small holiday apartment thru a door that pretty much faces the whole appt. A three bedroom house maybe CB could have hidden. But a small holiday appt? I find that hard to believe.

CBs rapes took time and planning. The grooming of his gf to abuse her daughter took time and planning. He's a vile creature. The rewards are greater if he takes MM

By default, accepting the first two questions, you accept that someone could have been hiding in the apartment during both checks - that it was at least possible.
 
MOs check was a minimal glance through a partly open door. He's said as much. They weren't expecting children to disappear. So anyone could have been in the bedroom - or not. MM might have been gone by the n

GM didn't go to his room or he'd have said so. But he did enter the small holiday apartment thru a door that pretty much faces the whole appt. A three bedroom house maybe CB could have hidden. But a small holiday appt? I find that hard to believe.

CBs rapes took time and planning. The grooming of his gf to abuse her daughter took time and planning. He's a vile creature. The rewards are greater if he takes MM

Just to add, you are completely projecting on your final point. You really have absolutely no idea what CB values more, it’s only an opinion and probably should be stated as such.
 
MOs check was a minimal glance through a partly open door. He's said as much. They weren't expecting children to disappear. So anyone could have been in the bedroom - or not. MM might have been gone by the n

GM didn't go to his room or he'd have said so. But he did enter the small holiday apartment thru a door that pretty much faces the whole appt. A three bedroom house maybe CB could have hidden. But a small holiday appt? I find that hard to believe.

CBs rapes took time and planning. The grooming of his gf to abuse her daughter took time and planning. He's a vile creature. The rewards are greater if he takes MM
The problem with your argument is that you are making several assumptions about the abuse in situ vs abduction scenarios that are not necessarily accurate.

1. You're assuming CBs motive from the start was to abuse MM. It might not have been, but upon finding her there, his sexual deviance came into play. So for example, if the original intent was a burglary, making the jump from burglary to abuse attempt (where the plan is not to wake her) isn't that difficult to believe, yet the jump from burglary to abduction would be massive.

2. CB would not have stayed there for ages as it was too risky. This is wrong on 2 points. Firstly, it is easier to remain concealed in the apartment where only 2 people are known to be checking in, than leaving with MM into the open unknown. Secondly, nobody is proposing that he meant to stay there for a long time, just that the time he was in there might have overlapped with a check. His plan might have been just a quick abuse attempt then leave, but after killing MM (accidentally?) he was forced to stay longer while he figured a plan to get her body out of there.

3. CB knew the parents were doing regular checks. Again, we don't know that he did know that. He might simply have seen them leaving for dinner and assumed that he had more time until they would be returning. Or, if he did have prior knowledge of check frequency, he may again have assumed he'd have more time. According to PF, MM cried for over an hour before her parents returned. If CB had been monitoring this night, he could have based how much time he had on that. We don't really know for sure how often the checks were really taking place.

4. CBs rapes show they took time and planning which reinforces that CB would have abducted MM. I don't get that. We only know of one rape, the DM one, which was an abuse in situ so that doesn't back up the argument for an abduction really. He could have abducted DM just as easily, what with her living in a remote villa, that would also reduce the risk of being disturbed in the act or leaving DNA at the scene. He didn't, he was quite happy to take the risk of doing it there. If the other rape you are referring to is the HB one, that was also abuse in situ and involved the same risk factors. You are also completely ignoring all the other depraved acts CB carried out that were massively risky, such as the playground masturbation, exposing himself in public, hiding under his girfriends bed or masturbating in front of a room of sleeping schoolgirls to name a few. When it comes to MM, you assume CB is being some highly logical thinking, careful criminal when he has shown on many occasion to be anything but that when it comes to his perversions.

5. There was nowhere to hide in the apartment. There was. I pointed out at least 3 places he might have been able to hide. You dismiss them without any reason other than finding it hard to believe. As for being no evidence that he entered any other room, of course there isn't! There's no evidence he even went in the apartment so how would there be specific evidence of what rooms he went into? By the same token, there's no evidence that he didn't go into those other rooms either to be able to discount the possibility.

6. The rewards are greater if he takes MM so that enforces the theory he abducted her. But who's to say the reward of abusing MM in situ wasn't enough for CB? Besides, as well as the rewards being greater, so are the risks. And that my biggest issue with this whole counterargument, the "risk" factor. People are dimissing the abuse in situ scenario on the basis CB wouldn't risk staying in the apartment for long, even though his plan would probably have involved a quick abuse that would have gone unnoticed if MM hadn't woke up. Yet the same people are quite happy to believe CB would take the risk of still entering the apartment (for a slightly shorter amount of time), pick up a sleeping MM, wander off outside with her (where he could now bump into anyone) and take her somewhere further away, knowing that everyone in the land is going to be looking for them. If there's anything that makes no sense, it's that argument that an abuse in situ was more "risky" than an abduction. It's total nonsense.
 
The problem with your argument is that you are making several assumptions about the abuse in situ vs abduction scenarios that are not necessarily accurate.

1. You're assuming CBs motive from the start was to abuse MM. It might not have been, but upon finding her there, his sexual deviance came into play. So for example, if the original intent was a burglary, making the jump from burglary to abuse attempt (where the plan is not to wake her) isn't that difficult to believe, yet the jump from burglary to abduction would be massive.

2. CB would not have stayed there for ages as it was too risky. This is wrong on 2 points. Firstly, it is easier to remain concealed in the apartment where only 2 people are known to be checking in, than leaving with MM into the open unknown. Secondly, nobody is proposing that he meant to stay there for a long time, just that the time he was in there might have overlapped with a check. His plan might have been just a quick abuse attempt then leave, but after killing MM (accidentally?) he was forced to stay longer while he figured a plan to get her body out of there.

3. CB knew the parents were doing regular checks. Again, we don't know that he did know that. He might simply have seen them leaving for dinner and assumed that he had more time until they would be returning. Or, if he did have prior knowledge of check frequency, he may again have assumed he'd have more time. According to PF, MM cried for over an hour before her parents returned. If CB had been monitoring this night, he could have based how much time he had on that. We don't really know for sure how often the checks were really taking place.

4. CBs rapes show they took time and planning which reinforces that CB would have abducted MM. I don't get that. We only know of one rape, the DM one, which was an abuse in situ so that doesn't back up the argument for an abduction really. He could have abducted DM just as easily, what with her living in a remote villa, that would also reduce the risk of being disturbed in the act or leaving DNA at the scene. He didn't, he was quite happy to take the risk of doing it there. If the other rape you are referring to is the HB one, that was also abuse in situ and involved the same risk factors. You are also completely ignoring all the other depraved acts CB carried out that were massively risky, such as the playground masturbation, exposing himself in public, hiding under his girfriends bed or masturbating in front of a room of sleeping schoolgirls to name a few. When it comes to MM, you assume CB is being some highly logical thinking, careful criminal when he has shown on many occasion to be anything but that when it comes to his perversions.

5. There was nowhere to hide in the apartment. There was. I pointed out at least 3 places he might have been able to hide. You dismiss them without any reason other than finding it hard to believe. As for being no evidence that he entered any other room, of course there isn't! There's no evidence he even went in the apartment so how would there be specific evidence of what rooms he went into? By the same token, there's no evidence that he didn't go into those other rooms either to be able to discount the possibility.

6. The rewards are greater if he takes MM so that enforces the theory he abducted her. But who's to say the reward of abusing MM in situ wasn't enough for CB? Besides, as well as the rewards being greater, so are the risks. And that my biggest issue with this whole counterargument, the "risk" factor. People are dimissing the abuse in situ scenario on the basis CB wouldn't risk staying in the apartment for long, even though his plan would probably have involved a quick abuse that would have gone unnoticed if MM hadn't woke up. Yet the same people are quite happy to believe CB would take the risk of still entering the apartment (for a slightly shorter amount of time), pick up a sleeping MM, wander off outside with her (where he could now bump into anyone) and take her somewhere further away, knowing that everyone in the land is going to be looking for them. If there's anything that makes no sense, it's that argument that an abuse in situ was more "risky" than an abduction. It's total nonsense.
Agreeing with your points. And I can remember several cases in the UK (completely unconnected) in which the initial investigative assumption was live abduction but the solution turned out to be in-situ. Next a small point not a critisism but DM villa (Casa J) is in urban PDL and not remote.
 
Looking at these pics, if an abductor hid behind the door, it would be tight. He would have to breathe right in and probably rise up against the wall. There also doesn't seem to be anything for him to grab onto to pull the closet door shut if he were inside there. He could do it if the bedroom door was ajar I suppose. But verry risky to say the least X
Each cupboard has a pair of doors (photo shows 1 door only but there are a pair). An intruder who is inside the cupboard can close 1 door completely, it will stay closed (see magnetic? latch at inner top of door in photo) and he can next close the second door almost fully so it is ajar by only a finger thickness.
 
Next a small point not a critisism but DM villa (Casa J) is in urban PDL and not remote.
You're correct, remote is probably not the right word. I just meant it is in an area where there would have been far less foot traffic than tourist areas with large complexes like the ocean club. The villa is situated right at the edge of the PDL urban area and not on any real thoroughfare for traffic or pedestrians unless they lived in one of those houses.
 
It is interesting how certain facts and also things which have never been established as fact, influence our theory of what took place.

I mean pretty much everyone agress that whatever happened to MM, it involved a sexual motive despite there being zero direct evidence to support that notion.

Similarly, the fact of MM being missing from the apartment, leads most people to the theory she must have been abducted first and it was after that, the sexual element of whatever transpired, took place.

But if we forget for a moment everything we know about this case and imagine the following story was released in the press -

"A 3 yr old girl was sexually assualted while holidaying in Portugal after her parents left her alone in the apartment while they went for dinner".

Knowing these facts and nothing else about the case, where would you assume the girl was sexually abused? I think nearly everyone would assume it happened in the apartment. Taking it a step further, and if the headline also stated she was murdered, again most people would still assume she was murdered in the apartment. That's because it's the most logical sequence of events that we can imagine taking place. Why would there be a need to remove her from the apartment to do this if the parents weren't there? It makes the most sense that this horrible thing happened right there in the apartment.

But when you include the fact the the girl's body is missing without a trace, that everyone now changes their opinion of what must happened. The most logical sequence of events we first believed is now discarded in favour of a theory that the girl must have been abducted first and then abused/killed somewhere else.

The first theory still remains as equally plausible as before though, if we assume that the body was hidden afterwards. Yet nobody now considers it because their mind is influenced by the other factors such as DNA and the parents checks etc.

I just find it interesting that, what would have been an absolutely believable and plausible crime before, now suddenly "doesn't make any sense" simply because the girls body was not found there and that the criminal didn't leave DNA behind (which is not uncommon in the slightest, take the DM rape as an example - 1 solitary hair).
 
The problem with your argument is that you are making several assumptions about the abuse in situ vs abduction scenarios that are not necessarily accurate.

1. You're assuming CBs motive from the start was to abuse MM. It might not have been, but upon finding her there, his sexual deviance came into play. So for example, if the original intent was a burglary, making the jump from burglary to abuse attempt (where the plan is not to wake her) isn't that difficult to believe, yet the jump from burglary to abduction would be massive.

2. CB would not have stayed there for ages as it was too risky. This is wrong on 2 points. Firstly, it is easier to remain concealed in the apartment where only 2 people are known to be checking in, than leaving with MM into the open unknown. Secondly, nobody is proposing that he meant to stay there for a long time, just that the time he was in there might have overlapped with a check. His plan might have been just a quick abuse attempt then leave, but after killing MM (accidentally?) he was forced to stay longer while he figured a plan to get her body out of there.

3. CB knew the parents were doing regular checks. Again, we don't know that he did know that. He might simply have seen them leaving for dinner and assumed that he had more time until they would be returning. Or, if he did have prior knowledge of check frequency, he may again have assumed he'd have more time. According to PF, MM cried for over an hour before her parents returned. If CB had been monitoring this night, he could have based how much time he had on that. We don't really know for sure how often the checks were really taking place.

4. CBs rapes show they took time and planning which reinforces that CB would have abducted MM. I don't get that. We only know of one rape, the DM one, which was an abuse in situ so that doesn't back up the argument for an abduction really. He could have abducted DM just as easily, what with her living in a remote villa, that would also reduce the risk of being disturbed in the act or leaving DNA at the scene. He didn't, he was quite happy to take the risk of doing it there. If the other rape you are referring to is the HB one, that was also abuse in situ and involved the same risk factors. You are also completely ignoring all the other depraved acts CB carried out that were massively risky, such as the playground masturbation, exposing himself in public, hiding under his girfriends bed or masturbating in front of a room of sleeping schoolgirls to name a few. When it comes to MM, you assume CB is being some highly logical thinking, careful criminal when he has shown on many occasion to be anything but that when it comes to his perversions.

5. There was nowhere to hide in the apartment. There was. I pointed out at least 3 places he might have been able to hide. You dismiss them without any reason other than finding it hard to believe. As for being no evidence that he entered any other room, of course there isn't! There's no evidence he even went in the apartment so how would there be specific evidence of what rooms he went into? By the same token, there's no evidence that he didn't go into those other rooms either to be able to discount the possibility.

6. The rewards are greater if he takes MM so that enforces the theory he abducted her. But who's to say the reward of abusing MM in situ wasn't enough for CB? Besides, as well as the rewards being greater, so are the risks. And that my biggest issue with this whole counterargument, the "risk" factor. People are dimissing the abuse in situ scenario on the basis CB wouldn't risk staying in the apartment for long, even though his plan would probably have involved a quick abuse that would have gone unnoticed if MM hadn't woke up. Yet the same people are quite happy to believe CB would take the risk of still entering the apartment (for a slightly shorter amount of time), pick up a sleeping MM, wander off outside with her (where he could now bump into anyone) and take her somewhere further away, knowing that everyone in the land is going to be looking for them. If there's anything that makes no sense, it's that argument that an abuse in situ was more "risky" than an abduction. It's total nonsense.
Point 2 and 6 are partly moot since in all scenarios he has to enter the appt and leave. Whether with MM or a handful of stuff. And he did so.

It is very difficult and risky to abduct adult women from appts but of you knew they were there alone - which he did - easy to attack in situ.

It is very easy to abduct a small child and less risky than remaining where her parents night return.

We have no proof CB masturbated in a room full of sleeping schoolgirls. If he did than there is a world of difference between the two. If one wakes up a screams they wake the others. It's more difficult.

There are places for him to hide but they're off a corridor facing the door through which GM is entering the flat and is listening out for his kids? I don't buy it


CB was a good burglar. I'd say go in during the day when you know people are out.

CB abused children. Children are in tourist spots in abundance. Parents are more relaxed on holiday. The appt was easy. The parents naive.

I'm basing it on occams razor. The simplest assumption is best to start with. Hiding adds complications.
 
Okay, the most recent suggestion on the planned abduction theory from @Victoria Chambers suggested minimum two person abduction with a car. IMO, in this scenario someone waits for an opportune time to enter. At this same time , someone else is waiting at the window to receive MM so the chances of being seen are already double - correct?

The intruder cannot hang around inside because his accomplice is waiting outside the window. This means that the entry and exit must happen closely together thereby at least doubling the amount of time, in one operation, that the abduction took. The pressure is on and there isn’t much time to make the same checks discussed in the more opportunistic abduction.

No evidence he was in the lounge? Unless he enters AND exits via the window, he must go into the lounge.

What has been discussed on the opportunistic abduction connects a number of facts detailed in the statements, potentially the Smithman sighting and many of the comments made by HCW. It’s also the preferred theory of SY.

Respectfully, if you can present a theory that connects facts from witness statements and what we know about CB to a planned abduction, please explain it.

I am sincere with this request, I really want to understand what happened to the poor little girl who I think was stolen from her family and am completely open to different views. I just want to know that you have thoughts to explain what did happen, not just thoughts on what didn’t happen, the latter is far easier to put forward than the former.
I'm not discussing the complex theory because it's not my theory. I think, like many, that smuggling gangs have no need to risk attention by abducting loved middle class children when a whole sad world of unloved children exists

The known facts are somebody entered the appt and left again with a child. She was last seen at 9.05 ish and by 10 she was gone.

The person in the frame is a known pervert who has footage of rapes and child abuse. Some of the rape footage appears to be in his house by him. He is charged with a rape in someone else's house. He has discussed a desire to capture something small and use it.

The simplest explanation is that he entered the flat knowing her parents were out and left again as soon as possible taking her with him. It fits the facts and it fits witness statements.

Looking at most cases I'm aware of - paedophiles groom parents or children or they grab them and take them elsewhere. The groomed survive the horrors. The abducted sadly don't according to stats.

No trace of the child has since been found despite the interests of the worlds press and LE from 3 countries

Other scenarios add complications. He has to silently hide. He has to waste time and pleasure by remaining alert. He's hardly the brightest pervert so simplest seems best

From what we already know man is a monster in prison for monstrous crimes
 
Point 2 and 6 are partly moot since in all scenarios he has to enter the appt and leave. Whether with MM or a handful of stuff. And he did so.

It is very difficult and risky to abduct adult women from appts but of you knew they were there alone - which he did - easy to attack in situ.

It is very easy to abduct a small child and less risky than remaining where her parents night return.

We have no proof CB masturbated in a room full of sleeping schoolgirls. If he did than there is a world of difference between the two. If one wakes up a screams they wake the others. It's more difficult.

There are places for him to hide but they're off a corridor facing the door through which GM is entering the flat and is listening out for his kids? I don't buy it


CB was a good burglar. I'd say go in during the day when you know people are out.

CB abused children. Children are in tourist spots in abundance. Parents are more relaxed on holiday. The appt was easy. The parents naive.

I'm basing it on occams razor. The simplest assumption is best to start with. Hiding adds complications.
Not moot at all. Your main argument is based on abuse in situ being too risky. Yet you completely fail to acknowledge that abducting a child involved taking even greater risks. And I'd completely disagree that it is "very easy" to abduct a small child in that environment. Again, you are making assumptions about "remaining where her parents might return". He takes that same risk in both scenarios and if the parents have just left he'd have reasonable confidence of what time window he had available to him. As I said, he may have know nothing of the checks anyway and just assumed the parents wouldn't be back until after the meal.
 
Not moot at all. Your main argument is based on abuse in situ being too risky. Yet you completely fail to acknowledge that abducting a child involved taking even greater risks. And I'd completely disagree that it is "very easy" to abduct a small child in that environment. Again, you are making assumptions about "remaining where her parents might return". He takes that same risk in both scenarios and if the parents have just left he'd have reasonable confidence of what time window he had available to him. As I said, he may have know nothing of the checks anyway and just assumed the parents wouldn't be back until after the meal.
Simplifying even further... The in-situ theory is workable even if his initial motive is simply burglary, and even if he has no knowledge there are children present. Like this: After dusk he sees a couple leaving their apartment, turning almost all the lights out as they leave. He deduces the couple have gone out for dinner or drinks, and there is no-one left in the apartment. So he commences to enter the apartment which he confidently believes is now empty of people, intending to burgle it (just like 5L and 4A earlier that year). But as soon as he enters 5A, everything changes.
 
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Not moot at all. Your main argument is based on abuse in situ being too risky. Yet you completely fail to acknowledge that abducting a child involved taking even greater risks. And I'd completely disagree that it is "very easy" to abduct a small child in that environment. Again, you are making assumptions about "remaining where her parents might return". He takes that same risk in both scenarios and if the parents have just left he'd have reasonable confidence of what time window he had available to him. As I said, he may have know nothing of the checks anyway and just assumed the parents wouldn't be back until after the meal.
They are moot because he DID abduct a small child. And in whatever scenario you look at he had to enter the appt and leave it.
 
A burglar randomly seeing a couple turning out most lights as they leave their flat in the evening would naturally assume that the flat does not contain unattended children. Also he would rule out the scenario of children plus babysitter (because a babysitter would be awake therefore the couple would not turn out most lights when leaving).
 
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