Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #21

[redplanet]

A missing person case in which the BKA insists there was a death. An alert by an expert british dog near a cupboard in that apartment. Are those two things connected?

 

[redplanet]

Something along those lines is also quite plausible for the door being open upon GM's check in fairness. i.e. that MM herself opened it.

In GMs statement, he mentions that MM came to sleep in their room one night because the twins were crying. And, upon seeing the door open on the 3rd when he entered, his immediate thought was that MM had done the same again and gone into his room, until he looked into the bedroom and saw all 3 children were still asleep in there.

The McCanns stated they assumed all the kids were asleep when they left the apartment, meaning they did not check if they actually were. Therefore, it's possible MM actually got up (perhaps upon hearing them leave) and opened the door to look for them before going back to her bed and that's why the door was open when GM did his check. Another possibility.

Yes you have explained it well. A child of that age is capable of getting off the bed, going out the room, then getting onto the bed again. IMO this may explain the door angle change observed by GM.

 

[Okapi]

There does seem to be a lot of interest in this case in Australia, do we have any natives who could give a perspective on this?

Having lived here for over 12 years, my own observations:


*MBM's case is on an equal footing of public interest as domestic child abductions. And Australia has had some mind boggling unsolved cases such as the Beaumont children, and more recently William Tyrell. A couple of years ago, the body of a little girl (Khandalyce Pearce) found in a suitcase was initially assumed to be MBM.


*There are a lot of British expats here.


*The nature of this case, a child taken from her bedroom, in a beach holiday, mirrors some notorious Aussie cases e.g. Cheryl Grimmer (incidentally a British immigrant) was abducted from a beachside shower block; the Beaumont also disappeared from a beach. Eloise Worlege, Louise Bell and Rahma El-Dennaoui were abducted from their own beds. I was incredulous when my husband insisted our child should not sleep in the street front bedroom but rather in the room at the back of our home beside the secure backyard. His logic was the memory of kids abducted from their bedrooms. Beach holidays are such a huge part of the Australian lifestyle that it's easy to see why the MBM abduction feels close to home.


*Like its horse racing prize money, this country is the king of chequebook journalism. That's a driver in popular human interest stories. The media landscape is very competitive here. There was actually a parental abduction case overseas where the Australian mother tried (and failed) to snatch her kids back with an embedded Aussie TV crew, the operation was financed by the TV channel. The same channel behind the Maddie podcast incidentally. Certain media here will pay top dollar to facilitate news stories. Not saying that is the case with HCW, only that money and distance is not usually a problem for Australian commercial media in chasing down international news.


*It's sad to say that the MBM disappearance is probably the most notorious missing child case on the planet. Everyone wants to know what happened to her, including Australians.

 

[Victoria Chambers]

I feel like I’m labouring my point on this so apologies. IMO, there is a big difference in MM leaving the room and finding her parents and leaving the room and not finding them.

GM made that statement as a way to justify the door being open to himself ... at that time, it was the only seemingly reasonable explanation.

Are there any other parents that want to chime in here?

I agree with you on that if MM had never been asleep and gotten out of bed when the parents left, she would almost certainly have done more than peek out the door before climbing back into bed and falling asleep. Even if she did not venture outdoors, I think she possibly would sit on the sofa, switch TV channels. Look in the fridge, play with make up - if it were my daughter, she would stand atop the toilet seat, turn on the tap and brush her teeth for as long as possible! If MM was initially asleep but woke later, I think she would cry at that point. But also, my daughter has never found herself alone so I don't know how fear may play a part in that situation. It is hard to say X

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Yes you have explained it well. A child of that age is capable of getting off the bed, going out the room, then getting onto the bed again. IMO this may explain the door angle change observed by GM.

Physically capable yes. Emotionally capable of coping with being abandoned ... IMO no. I’m okay for us to disagree on this, it does provide a much wider window for entry and a shorter period for CB to be in the apartment if you’re right.

 

[Okapi]

Gosh that's a hard one. I think MBM would have a certain degree of independence as an almost 4y.o. with twin siblings so close in age. It's almost a given that her parents would have encouraged her to take responsibility for toilet/bedtime routines, because they had twin babies to manage.


A lot depends also on her nature, if she was a clingy child or a self soother.


It's quite normal for kids her age to relapse a bit in their sleeping, to start to fear monsters in the wardrobe. Many parents handle this by popping in periodically to reassure the child. It may have been the norm even back home. Bear in mind also, kids can regress in sleep habits when they are in a different environment.


However, the McCanns had holidayed in Ireland only a week or two (sorry don't recall exact timeline) before the trip to Portugal. MBM may have been relaxed and used to spending time away from home. She also had her teddy with her to reinforce her sleeping environment.


By all accounts, she seems to have been a bright and confident little girl.


The big question for me is, did MBM know her parents would be out but close by and popping back to check in on her? Because I think this is the determinant for whether or not she would panic. I think she must have known, because it wouldn't make sense to risk her waking up and discovering her parents were absent. (She was in a bed, and not contained safely in a cot like her siblings). That may well panic any child in those circumstances. I think her comment to her mother about why she didn't come when MBM and her brother were crying on a previous night, suggests she expected her parents to look in on them. This was the pattern for the holiday.


So I think it's plausible she went out to the loo. It's plausible she cried for her parents. I think there's too many variables to say if she'd have panicked. There's too many variables for the door angle. Or is it just me in a tailspin over these details?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Just MOO.

 

[mrjitty]

If you go back to all the witness statements in the files excluding those of the tapas group, you get quite a different timescale. So I think FF is planning to used the tapas statements to prove it couldn’t have been CB, when their statements don’t match those of people outside their group. The tapas groups collaboration with each other to make sure they didn’t look negligent may unfortunately work in CBs favour. I don’t want to sway anyone about the timings, just go through the files and you’ll see what I mean

Yes - this all goes back to a point I made about a month ago.

We should not rely too heavily on the witness statements because none of it has ever been tested in Court under cross examination. JT is an example of one witness whose version has been torn apart by the Met.

This is why I believe Wolters won't be bothering about micro positions of doors etc etc

 

[mrjitty]

We also know that the man commiting the previous assaults in the Algarve was entering apartments when all occupants were in bed and not eating outdoors doing regular checks. He was also not too bothered about keeping himself to himself since they do have his DNA from scenes.

RSBM

Agree - also there is simply no evidence that CB is some highly sophisticated offender. His record tends to indicate the opposite.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Yes - this all goes back to a point I made about a month ago.

We should not rely too heavily on the witness statements because none of it has ever been tested in Court under cross examination. JT is an example of one witness whose version has been torn apart by the Met.

This is why I believe Wolters won't be bothering about micro positions of doors etc etc

I think you’re probably right but he has a lot more to go on the us (please dear god let that be the case).

The statements haven’t been tested in court but they are the best information we have right now.

How open the door was is irrelevant. The fact that it was open and by whom is relevant because it narrows down the time of entry and the amount time the perpetrator was in the apartment. This may or may not be important now but could be helpful if more information is released. It may make the picture clearer so IMO working through it is worthwhile.

Isn’t trying to work out what happened in this case by trial and error and by testing theories the whole point of this forum? Waiting to find out what HCW knows and having witness statements tested in court will be reported in the news which will be interesting but it’s not sleuthing.

 

[mrjitty]

I think you’re probably right but he has a lot more to go on the us (please dear god let that be the case).

The statements haven’t been tested in court but they are the best information we have right now.

How open the door was is irrelevant. The fact that it was open and by whom is relevant because it narrows down the time of entry and the amount time the perpetrator was in the apartment. This may or may not be important now but could be helpful if more information is released. It may make the picture clearer so IMO working through it is worthwhile.

Isn’t trying to work out what happened in this case by trial and error and by testing theories the whole point of this forum? Waiting to find out what HCW knows and having witness statements tested in court will be reported in the news which will be interesting but it’s not sleuthing.

I mean that we don't even know that the door really was moved. The witnesses appear to have become focussed on this afterwards, after they all contaminated each others' evidence. Another example - we've always known JT's evidence can't possibly fit with other witnesses. So somehow one or more of them are wrong on multiple points. MO claimed at first he never went in the apartment ... etc etc etc

 

[Newthoughts]

Entitled to your opinion of course, but in what respect do you think this complex planned abduction scenario is "more plausible"? You seem to be dismissing the theory of someone being in the apartment for a longer time on the basis that the police would surely have found some trace of them. Why do you think that? Except for the saliva stain they did an analysis on, the only other forensics they carried out were on hairs they found. And as I pointed out in an earlier post, they failed to find hairs or DNA traces of several other people who we know for a fact were in the apartment that night, and for a longer period than the intruder would have been there.

I don't quite understand the logic of why this elaborate planned abduction theory seems more plausible than say, someone attempting to abuse MM in the apartment and something going wrong. We already know of dozens of other similar abuse crimes in the algarve alone in the prior years where an abductor crept in and abused children in their holiday apartment. Is it that difficult to believe one such attempt might go wrong and result in a child's death? Especially with no parents around to be alerted things could have escalated further than they otherwise might have.

On the other hand, how many cases do we know of a foriegn child being deliberately abducted from an upper class holiday resort as part of some well planned abduction? What would be the motive for something so risky? People who steal and traffic children for financial gain wouldn't take such risks, there are much easier targets they would go for with far less exposure and fallout.

All JMO opinion but this seems more like an impulsive crime and the reason it still unsolved is due to luck on behalf of the perp, poor initial police work, lack of cctv and lack of people around at the time of year.

But there is no mention of complex or elaborate in Victoria Chambers post - just planning. The planning didn't need to be complex because the planning would have identified an extremely easy target.

I also think it was a planned quick in and escape abduction but I don't remotely think it was elaborate, complex or difficult. In fact I think MM was abducted for the very opposite reason - ground floor flat next to road and basic planning identifying parents going each evening. possibly from staff gossip.

There was a witness account from a previous occupant of 5a with a child of an exterior light going on and a babysitter finding a man hanging around.

IMO MM was taken because an evil pervert saw she was in accessible appt 5a and her parents were operated a simple rota of checking. Their friends children are still there because they were in harder to access appts. That's good simple cunning planning

I do, however, agree with you about it not being a people smuggling crime ring. For the same reason.

Paedophiles do plan. They groom children they groom parents and when they see clear opportunities they abduct. That is how so many horrific stories unfold. I think CB would have found it far easier to abduct than stay and do whatever

 

[SuperdadV8]

Madeleine McCann suspect Christian B ‘at breaking point’ and trashing cell

For the first time i hope, that "The Sun" is right this time!

 

[Dlk79]

But there is no mention of complex or elaborate in Victoria Chambers post - just planning. The planning didn't need to be complex because the planning would have identified an extremely easy target.

I also think it was a planned quick in and escape abduction but I don't remotely think it was elaborate, complex or difficult. In fact I think MM was abducted for the very opposite reason - ground floor flat next to road and basic planning identifying parents going each evening. possibly from staff gossip.

There was a witness account from a previous occupant of 5a with a child of an exterior light going on and a babysitter finding a man hanging around.

IMO MM was taken because an evil pervert saw she was in accessible appt 5a and her parents were operated a simple rota of checking. Their friends children are still there because they were in harder to access appts. That's good simple cunning planning

I do, however, agree with you about it not being a people smuggling crime ring. For the same reason.

Paedophiles do plan. They groom children they groom parents and when they see clear opportunities they abduct. That is how so many horrific stories unfold. I think CB would have found it far easier to abduct than stay and do whatever

Depends on your definition of elaborate. The scenario being proposed involved an inside job, an employee sneaking in using master keys so that any DNA found wouldn't stand out, them then passing the child out of the window to another person and then into a waiting car. All with the puspose of making money. IMO, that's a pretty elaborate plan to snatch a kid. Espeically if it had to involve reconnaissance of the entire Tapas group as part of the planning.

On your last point, not sure why you think CB would find it easier to abduct her than abuse her in the apartment. What is easier about it? We know of other cases in the area where someone was doing exactly that, abusing them in their own bed, probably with the intention of not waking them.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Depends on your definition of elaborate. The scenario being proposed involved an inside job, an employee sneaking in using master keys so that any DNA found wouldn't stand out, them then passing the child out of the window to another person and then into a waiting car. All with the puspose of making money. IMO, that's a pretty elaborate plan to snatch a kid. Espeically if it had to involve reconnaissance of the entire Tapas group as part of the planning.

On your last point, not sure why you think CB would find it easier to abduct her than abuse her in the apartment. What is easier about it? We know of other cases in the area where someone was doing exactly that, abusing them in their own bed, probably with the intention of not waking them.

You nailed it before with the car registration. If CB is the perpetrator, it wasn’t planned anywhere other than in his fantasies. What kind of abductor would put together a plan and collaborate with other people to abduct a middle-class kid from a holiday apartment and then decide to change his car registration the next day?

IMO he found out the info about unsupervised kids from a prior attempted burglary, observation or over-hearing a conversation. Then acting impulsively (like most of his other crimes) he waited for the most opportune time to enter 5A.

I think things unraveled for him somewhat inside the apartment and abducting MM dead or alive was an afterthought.

Goodness me, this guy’s idea of a protest is smearing yoghurt on the walls, he’s not Hannibal Lecter.

 

[snowpea666]

Police in Maddie case receive 'interesting' pictures from British tourists

 

[C.greek]

I feel like I’m labouring my point on this so apologies. IMO, there is a big difference in MM leaving the room and finding her parents and leaving the room and not finding them.

GM made that statement as a way to justify the door being open to himself ... at that time, it was the only seemingly reasonable explanation.

Are there any other parents that want to chime in here?

My little one is the same age as MM was. I do not see how it would be possible to just go back to sleep if she didn't find us there. She would cry uncontrollably. And the same would apply to my eldest when she was that age. I find it very difficult to believe that a child that age would just go to the toilet on their own and then go back to sleep... without checking on their parents

 

[Okapi]

Goodness me, this guy’s idea of a protest is smearing yoghurt on the walls, he’s not Hannibal Lecter.

It's not quite like the Blanket Protests in Northern Ireland...

 

[SuperdadV8]

CB's bid for parole has been rejected:

Application for parole was denied

The reason given by the Braunschwieg Regional Court: “The convicted person has had multiple previous convictions and has failed on probation. In particular, a probation had to be revoked at the end because the convict committed several offenses during the probation period. In the past, the convicted person had committed crimes under the Narcotics Act, among other things, as well as multiple acts against the sexual self-determination of children, which is why serious crimes can be expected in the event of a relapse. Stabilizing factors that could prevent the convicted from committing further crimes were not found. "

Maddie McCann: Christian B. bleibt in Haft – Antrag auf Bewährung abgelehnt - derwesten.de

Seems like the nice little leisure trip to Braunschweig was probably not worth it...

 

[Denis R Tandib]

My little one is the same age as MM was. I do not see how it would be possible to just go back to sleep if she didn't find us there. She would cry uncontrollably. And the same would apply to my eldest when she was that age. I find it very difficult to believe that a child that age would just go to the toilet on their own and then go back to sleep... without checking on their parents

Me too. I have a little girl of three too. Zero chance she would get up in the night to go to the loo on her own then go back to bed and settle herself. Appreciate your comment.

 

[Newthoughts]

My little one is the same age as MM was. I do not see how it would be possible to just go back to sleep if she didn't find us there. She would cry uncontrollably. And the same would apply to my eldest when she was that age. I find it very difficult to believe that a child that age would just go to the toilet on their own and then go back to sleep... without checking on their parents

The witness PF said she heard a child crying and calling daddy for an hour on the first. KM said MM asked why they hadn't come when they'd called on the morning of the third. I see no reason to disregard either of those things.

At nearly 4 my kids would get themselves to the loo - we'd leave the landing light on for that reason. But there was always someone there