Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #21

[redplanet]

I must say I find Wolter's comments highly unconvincing on the cell tower

He doesn't know about the radius?

How can he be speaking in the way he is, if he doesn't know the spectrum of where that call places the suspect?

Or is he just talking crap here?

And there is no "ocean club tower" and even if there was, how does it place CB at OC?

This feels all very light weight, unless he has another very heft piece of evidence he is not telling us about.

But then he asks for videos/photos - which leads me to believe he does not already have the same ...

Yes it is extraordinary to hear the otherwise precise HCW talking about a non-existent OC mast and having little knowledge of the size of cells. lt is similar to when AR announced he had identified JTman by equating east with west.

 

[axelcruze]

I think the information put forward by HB was enough for HCW to investigate CBs movements and actions and motives on this night and following days. Like someone mentioned, they work backwards and things start making sense to an investigation. The Jag sale and then disappearing off somewhere, the cell call putting him in the location, the call to the public could be get his movements on that day, in photographs would give a time stamp that can be used. HCW seems to be in no doubt of murder without body i.e. images and that CB is murderer i.e image/witness,/pub conversation/darkweb. What seems tricky is the defence FF trying to argue CB could not have been there at time of abduction - so is HCW going for the murder rather than potentially lose case or no trial by going with abduction loose ends - the cell data could be a a bluff by HCW

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Yes all 9 were at table when GM left table to check.
The reason you propose for CB entering 5A may well be correct: to be a weird pervert (without necessarily waking anyone). IMO this indicates that he already knew before 3rd there were children alone. IMO he probably learned this while attempting to enter 5A on evening 1st or on evening 2nd???

I think these few puzzle pieces fit together quite well then. He has prior knowledge that there are children alone. This could be from an earlier break-in or a tip-off but for this to work, he must know this information. This means that once all the tapas group are first seated is the best time to enter 5A - this is very logical.

Do you know the time the last of the tapas group got to the restaurant? I am keen to know the window of opportunity between this point and GM making his first check.

Pulling all the pieces together I do think it’s likely the CB was in 5A during both checks.

 

[Tekno]

I think these few puzzle pieces fit together quite well then. He has prior knowledge that there are children alone. This could be from an earlier break-in or a tip-off but for this to work, he must know this information. This means that once all the tapas group are first seated is the best time to enter 5A - this is very logical.

Do you know the time the last of the tapas group got to the restaurant? I am keen to know the window of opportunity between this point and GM making his first check.

Pulling all the pieces together I do think it’s likely the CB was in 5A during both checks.

 

[Tekno]

Timeline: the day Madeleine McCann disappeared

Hope this helps, Denis.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Timeline: the day Madeleine McCann disappeared

Hope this helps, Denis.

You’re kind, very much appreciated!

 

[mrjitty]

I don't know what to make of the alleged Met-Ger conspiracy to get the investigation closed - it does seem unlikely... but then, Colin Sutton:

Colin Sutton: Madeleine McCann and Operation Grange

So.

Snipped for focus.

Without being conspiratorial you can certainly imagine that CB is perfect for the Met who never wanted Operation Grange in the first place. That was foisted on them via the political game playing of the Murdoch press.

So they get the tip off, pass it to the germans, and now they are in a great place to finally close Grange down. It's all with the Germans. Met can't do anything further.

But why would the Germans go along with this? Difficult to imagine the Germans would want to wade into the most notorious case ever, without something pretty strong. Especially for a "missing persons". Unless of course, they hope to clear some of their own cold cases?

 

[mrjitty]

Yes it is extraordinary to hear the otherwise precise HCW talking about a non-existent OC mast and having little knowledge of the size of cells. lt is similar to when AR announced he had identified JTman by equating east with west.

I think HCW unintentionally revealed parts of his theory of the case, by showing what is and is not important to him.

I think it does not matter to HCW where exactly CB was. He needs only to place CB in the general area. The call content matters however. Perhaps the burglary theory?

Second, he does not care or even appear to know about dogs, Smiths etc - i think none of this matters for his case which presumably is built on evidence that comes after 10pm on the 3rd

He is hunting for physical evidence by the sounds of it - photos etc as well as witnesses who can confirm movements in those days

This makes me wonder if he has intercepts that tell what was done, but he does not have physical proof of the acts

 

[mrjitty]

Well that was a very good listen. I do appreciate Mark S for the clear way he frames his questions, doing his best to leave as little possible room for ambiguity in the answers.

Re BIB ^ I'm of the same opinion, that what the LE must have as 'concrete evidence' is likely entirely post not just 10pm that evening but possibly beyond the 3rd May even? I got the impression from HCW that the LE is working backwards rather than forwards, hence the continued focus on that phone call.

So, presumably, what they have must be actual 'footage' featuring CB and MM, since nothing else imo could really or realistically back up such a confident position/charge.

HCW, for all his 'This I don't know' and 'This I can't say for sure' and 'This I can't answer' does still come across as someone absolutely sure that what he does know/have leaves CB's guilt in no doubt.

I tend to agree. One starts with a theory of the case, based on the tip off / confession

Then one finds elements that fit ones theory, so ones convictions grow.

As you know, i doubt the photo idea, which would be an absolute bombshell. I suspect rather, they found other evidence (e.g. messages) which confirm or corroborate elements of his confession. But I believe they lack any physical evidence of their theory.

 

[Dlk79]

Do you know the time the last of the tapas group got to the restaurant? I am keen to know the window of opportunity between this point and GM making his first check.

Pulling all the pieces together I do think it’s likely the CB was in 5A during both checks.

The Payne's were the last to arrive at the Tapas and based on the statements, this would have been between 8.55 and 9pm. However, they were still not all seated together at this point since MO had already left the table before they arrived to hurry them along. He actually passes them (roughly in the area of the Tanner sighting) but decides that since he is already there, he may as well go and check on his kids.

MO then listens at the shutters of his kids room and at the shutters of MM's room. He then returns to the Tapas, some time between 9 and 9.05. He tells GM all is quiet in MM's room but GM decides to go and do his check anyway. According to MO's rogotary statement, GM left almost straight after MO returned.

Assuming CB was in the apartment during GM's check, the window for him to enter after knowing everyone was seated was seemingly only a couple of minutes at most. That's assuming he was monitoring the comings and goings of the group to that detail. Is this the 90 second window FF was referring to perhaps? He was said to have walked paths and timed how long it takes. And he spoke about if the witness statements are accurate...

There were bigger windows of time for him to enter prior to that though. There was a 10 or 15 minute window when the rest of the group were sat at the table before the Payne's arrived for example. And the McCanns were alone at the table for 5 or 10 minutes before anyone esle arrived too.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

The Payne's were the last to arrive at the Tapas and based on the statements, this would have been between 8.55 and 9pm. However, they were still not all seated together at this point since MO had already left the table before they arrived to hurry them along. He actually passes them (roughly in the area of the Tanner sighting) but decides that since he is already there, he may as well go and check on his kids.

MO then listens at the shutters of his kids room and at the shutters of MM's room. He then returns to the Tapas, some time between 9 and 9.05. He tells GM all is quiet in MM's room but GM decides to go and do his check anyway. According to MO's rogotary statement, GM left almost straight after MO returned.

Assuming CB was in the apartment during GM's check, the window for him to enter after knowing everyone was seated was seemingly only a couple of minutes at most. That's assuming he was monitoring the comings and goings of the group to that detail. Is this the 90 second window FF was referring to perhaps? He was said to have walked paths and timed how long it takes. And he spoke about if the witness statements are accurate...

There were bigger windows of time for him to enter prior to that though. There was a 10 or 15 minute window when the rest of the group were sat at the table before the Payne's arrived for example. And the McCanns were alone at the table for 5 or 10 minutes before anyone esle arrived too.

Thank you. Yes, now I recall the first MO check.

I think it’s fair to say that if CB had any forethought about going in to the apartment he would minimise his chances of getting caught by waiting until all the group were seated. In this scenario, the timing was really tight so it’s possible he had just entered the apartment when GM did his check. This is supported by everything being as expected except the door, perhaps CB was just in the kids bedroom when he heard the gate or something else let him know GM was on his way.

I like the connection you’ve made to FF’s 90 second comment. I wonder if there is something else that makes FF think this is the time that the prosecutors think is the window for entry. For example, could CB be giving him info that makes what actually happened seem very unlikely?

 

[Dlk79]

I like the connection you’ve made to FF’s 90 second comment. I wonder if there is something else that makes FF think this is the time that the prosecutors think is the window for entry. For example, could CB be giving him info that makes what actually happened seem very unlikely?

Could go back to the comment regarding "something only the suspect could know" and that the "something" relates to CB telling someone about what GM did during his check. FF might naturally assert it was not feasible for CB to enter until all of the group was seated which was would have only been for a couple of minutes if their statements are accurate.

It is highly probable that FF already knows the full content of the apparent confession to HB. If not directly from CB, then other sources (HB told SY about it and prior to that HB claims to have told PJ about it). Therefore, he probably knows details, that we don't, regarding how the crime supposedly played out. Knowing how the Prosecution is likley to put their case forward he has set about trying to debunk that particular course of actions as being too improbable to be true. JMO.

 

[mrjitty]

How would CB really know who exactly was expected at the table? What wait for further diners to arrive?

Wouldn't he more likely strike as soon as the Ms left?

 

[redplanet]

IMO it is possible that MO checked the incorrect window. On that section of wall of the building are 3 windows. Walking from the stairwell, along the culdesac path lower than the carpark, if hypothetically he listens at the first 2 windows, he has actually not listened/checked at 5A at all. Because the first 2 windows are both of the bedroom of 5B.

 

[redplanet]

How would CB really know who exactly was expected at the table? What wait for further diners to arrive?

Wouldn't he more likely strike as soon as the Ms left?

Yes. For CB to analyse the entire restaurant arrival sequence, complete with people arriving late, or some nights one or other adult remaining in an apartment, is too complex.

 

[redplanet]

How would CB really know who exactly was expected at the table? What wait for further diners to arrive?

Wouldn't he more likely strike as soon as the Ms left?

Yes and when they left the apartment they (presumably turned several lights off and) left only one small tablelamp on. This would to an observer suggest there is now no-one home?

 

[redplanet]

I hope HCW has requested from the PJ the full-resolution versions of the crime-scene photos taken early hours 4th. Important to see maximum detail IMO.

 

[Victoria Chambers]

I'm not sure that taking an image into a court and saying "We found this amongst CB belongings and also CB phone pinged off of a mast in the area of the abduction- also an area frequented by CB- none of this is enough to get a conviction I don't think. The apartment is the actual crime scene and unless CB can be placed, without doubt, inside that apartment, then it could be anybody in the scenario that we presume took place. In a case this big, even with a photograph or footage, placing CB whereabouts, definitely, in the run up to the image being taken is vital for certainly a conviction, but even to be charged IMO -because a person can take, send, download, copy an image at the touch of a button in the digital age that we are in today. That doesn't mean we actually snapped that image!
Wether it be CB or another, somebody is protecting or withholding information re the guilty person's involvement and I don't think LE can solve this without the person coming foreward. Or of course, finding DNA X

 

[Newthoughts]

The Payne's were the last to arrive at the Tapas and based on the statements, this would have been between 8.55 and 9pm. However, they were still not all seated together at this point since MO had already left the table before they arrived to hurry them along. He actually passes them (roughly in the area of the Tanner sighting) but decides that since he is already there, he may as well go and check on his kids.

MO then listens at the shutters of his kids room and at the shutters of MM's room. He then returns to the Tapas, some time between 9 and 9.05. He tells GM all is quiet in MM's room but GM decides to go and do his check anyway. According to MO's rogotary statement, GM left almost straight after MO returned.

Assuming CB was in the apartment during GM's check, the window for him to enter after knowing everyone was seated was seemingly only a couple of minutes at most. That's assuming he was monitoring the comings and goings of the group to that detail. Is this the 90 second window FF was referring to perhaps? He was said to have walked paths and timed how long it takes. And he spoke about if the witness statements are accurate...

There were bigger windows of time for him to enter prior to that though. There was a 10 or 15 minute window when the rest of the group were sat at the table before the Payne's arrived for example. And the McCanns were alone at the table for 5 or 10 minutes before anyone esle arrived too.

I think only the checkers that went into 5a would be really relevant - all others were either checking their own kids in different appts or just listening at windows for crying. That is GM at 9.05 and MO at 9.30. IMO the rest of the Tapas groups checks don't seem that relevant IMO. One the McCanns were out nobody was going to call for them.

 

[Newthoughts]

I think the point in your last paragraph is an important one for you to think about. It comes down to intention. If CB went into 5A with the sole intention of abducting MM, then I think it’s fair to assume a planned process where a quick in and out makes sense.

I favour a situation where CB entered the apartment to be a weird pervert because it’s an unequivocal fact that that is what he was ... he had no prior convictions for abducting children and has had none since. This obviously doesn’t guarantee that he didn’t abduct MM or IG but it’s aligned to his known, proven history which IMO makes the pervert intention more likely.

So far as the door is concerned, GM and KM have mentally reviewed it countless times. It’s a small, seemingly unremarkable fact but it is a fact. Their nighttime routine was to leave the door just slightly ajar. On GM’s check it was half open. Again, this could have been a mistake, perhaps when they left for dinner on the 3rd it was left more open than normal. In my mind though, if we are coming up with theories, it makes more sense to have one that explains all the facts not just some of them.

I agree but would add a couple of things.

The layout of the appt and the way in which GM went in. How alert would CB be if engaged in some kind of abuse.

GM entered via the patio doors at the front. To get there he'd have gone through a gate and upstairs next to the kitchen. Therefore separated from the kids room by a kitchen and hallway. Even tho relaxed the rest of his evening was reliant on his kids remaining asleep so I'd guess he'd be quiet

If CB was engaged in something impleasant surely he'd be focusing on that and less alert to noise

Once in thru the patio doors he'd be facing the rooms where CB would be. Even with doors shut it'd be difficult to move without being heard.