Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect - #21

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dsheal said:
Hi everyone, I’ve been checking in now and then lately as life has been busy so I may have missed it but... has this been shared/discussed yet?

German police raid 50 homes in child *advertiser censored* investigation
Article is dated Sept 2, 2020 but is the October 2019 date mentioned of any significance to anyone?

I know of other raids but wasn’t sure if I’d read about this one before... just thought it was interesting!!
Click to expand...

This part is interesting ! Thanks. The raids took places in 12 states, with a focus on Bavaria. They were part of an investigation that began in October 2019 and has so far identified 207 suspects.
 
Ok so here is a variation in which there is no getting out of bed, no looking for parents.
Before GM check, the bedroom door is opened by the intruder, the question is why? Was the purpose to enter that bedroom? Or to exit that bedroom and go to another room?
After GM check, but before MO check, the bedroom door is opened again by the intruder. Why? And in which direction does he go through it?
 
redplanet said:
Ok so here is a variation in which there is no getting out of bed, no looking for parents.
Before GM check, the bedroom door is opened by the intruder, the question is why? Was the purpose to enter that bedroom? Or to exit that bedroom and go to another room?
After GM check, but before MO check, the bedroom door is opened again by the intruder. Why? And in which direction does he go through it?
Click to expand...

I think there are lots of possible answers on this but I’ll give you one example which I’m thinking:

1. CB waits until all Tapas group go to the restaurant (Please confirm that they were all seated before GM makes his check, I can’t remember) and enters 5A;
2. He goes into the kids bedroom to be a weird pervert, while in there he hears the gate outside (We know it makes noise from PF or CTs statement) and it’s GM making his check;
3. CB hides ... not many options (GM went in each room of the small apartment except the parents room during his check) other than behind the kids bedroom door or in the parents room - I think he had time to get to the parents room;
4. GM exits 5A and CB lays low for a while because he can hear GM and JW talking outside;
5. He makes a visual check of the side street from the lounge/diner and when clear, he goes back into the kids room to continue being weird;
6. MM wakes up and starts freaking out because there is a weirdo in her room;
7. CB, aware that there are people outside and a stream of people coming to check the kids, restrains MM ... probably unintentionally suffocates her;
8. CB, obviously spooked, opens the window shutters to check outside, thereby letting in the light visible during MOs check;
9. MO makes his check before CB has a chance to exit and CB hides again;
10. Once MO leaves, CB opens the window in the kids room to see/hear better outside;
11. He makes other checks of the side street and front of the apartment and when the coast is clear, he exits via the front door.

Feel free to offer counter thoughts, explanations or examples. Might get us closer to what happened if we pull theories apart.
 
Newthoughts said:
Trying to work my way round this.

GMs statement about the window normally suggests a small amount of external light reaches the children's room at night. Curtains are drawn possibly against this?

At 21.00 MO checks by walking past listening for noise and says the window and shutters of MMs bedroom were closed all is quiet and well.

21.05 GM goes to check. Is aware the door is more open than he recalled but noticed nothing unusual enough to alert suspicion and doesn't notice the window at all - which you would definitely notice more than a slightly more ajar door. Nor does he notice any extra external light that could suggest shutters tampered with behind curtains or additional light getting in.

So in that last visual sighting of MM he does not see anything to alert suspicion other than a slightly more open door. In short nothing that would make him worry.

I think if you'd notice door you'd certainly notice windows. So IMO the window is look out only for CB.

If you're checking your children are sleeping peacefully noise and disturbances are what are on your mind. IMO CB can't have been there unnoticed by a parent on the alert for noises and disturbance.

He also sees MM sleeping peacefully and quietly. Surely any noise would have alerted him.

MO checks at 9.35 and noticed light but he's not aware of how the apartment would look normally so could that just be the normal. He says door ajar. He sees twin but doesn't enter room or see MM. He does hear a noise sounding like ordinary turning over in a bed. Not enough to check.

KM finds open door and window.

If JT sighting is relevant - surely the door and window would have been obviously the same at MOs check as they were at KMs

If CB had been in the flat at GMs check I can't help thinking he'd have noticed. I can't see CB hiding behind the door or tip toeing around GM when the whole purpose of the check was to ensure themselves the children were quiet and they were.

So I can't help thinking that the time between GM and KM is when CB entered the appt and that he left some time between MO and KM. And I think Smith sighting is relevant
Click to expand...

Sorry, I missed this post. I think we are thinking similarly. I would like you to consider a couple of things.

If you were CB and you were in 5A, your awareness would be firmly on the noises outside the apartment - voices, footsteps, gates and doors opening, anything to suggest someone was heading back to the apartment. When GM came back to carry out his check, if indeed his second statement is correct (IMO GA is correction in his assertion that this is a major change to GM’s statement, this has always bothered me), he came through the gate, up the stairs, for all we know he could have been humming a tune. In this situation, I think CB could have had time to hide.

GM, while checking on the kids and listening out for noises, had also been drinking. I’m not saying he was drunk but he was on holiday with a few drinks in him. CB was on ultra-high alert, I don’t think GM was.

If CB didn’t open the door, how else can it be explained, I don’t think MM opening it is an explanation.

While the noise MO apparently heard could support the fact that someone was in the apartment, he didn’t mention that he heard it in his statement. I think he made the statement in the press, months later. I’m not sure it’s reliable.

I agree with your exit time and also agree with you on the Smith sighting, I may be open to who the man was but I feel as though the child was MM.
 
Just on the subject of MBM and her siblings' sleeping habits, this article references what KM had to say about it in her book.

Kate McCann: Why Maddie’s ‘worrying’ comment left mother ‘puzzled’ on day of disappearance

Quote:
"Gerry and I were disconcerted, could Madeleine and Sean have woken up while we were at dinner?

“If so, it was worrying, obviously, but it did not seem probable.

“As I’ve said, not only did they rarely stir at all at night, but if they did it was hardly ever, and I mean ever, before the early hours.

“If they had done so on this occasion, it would mean they had woken up, cried for a while, calmed themselves down and fallen asleep again.”

Kate went on to explain the idea of both the children waking up and not being noticed by the parents doing checks was unlikely, but not impossible.

She continued: “All of this would have been in the space of 30 or 45 minutes.

“Children usually need some soothing back to sleep once they’ve woken, especially if two of them are awake and upset at the same time.

“It seems highly unlikely they would have gone through all these stages without one of them overlapping with one of our checks.

“It was not impossible, but it seemed implausible."
 
Denis R Tandib said:
Sorry, I missed this post. I think we are thinking similarly. I would like you to consider a couple of things.

If you were CB and you were in 5A, your awareness would be firmly on the noises outside the apartment - voices, footsteps, gates and doors opening, anything to suggest someone was heading back to the apartment. When GM came back to carry out his check, if indeed his second statement is correct (IMO GA is correction in his assertion that this is a major change to GM’s statement, this has always bothered me), he came through the gate, up the stairs, for all we know he could have been humming a tune. In this situation, I think CB could have had time to hide.

GM, while checking on the kids and listening out for noises, had also been drinking. I’m not saying he was drunk but he was on holiday with a few drinks in him. CB was on ultra-high alert, I don’t think GM was.

If CB didn’t open the door, how else can it be explained, I don’t think MM opening it is an explanation.

While the noise MO apparently heard could support the fact that someone was in the apartment, he didn’t mention that he heard it in his statement. I think he made the statement in the press, months later. I’m not sure it’s reliable.

I agree with your exit time and also agree with you on the Smith sighting, I may be open to who the man was but I feel as though the child was MM.
Click to expand...
The door at GMs check is a weird one because it doesn't seem to have been unusual enough to have alarmed him but did make him check MM was in bed? Or would he have done that anyway? Nothing else alerted him at all to anything untoward so part of me wonders who shut the door when they left for dinner at 8.30 and how open it had been. Part how much do you think you noticed in retrospect when looking for any detail that might help. I'm unsure about it's significance

I agree totally about GM being relaxed and having had a drink or two against someone in high alert. That could have contributed to him ignoring the door perhaps? I also keep in mind that this was towards the end of an uneventful holiday where any misgivings about the system would have long gone lulling them into a false sense of security. But because their only worry was their children waking up so I think he'd been a parent long enough to be quiet

MO's check noted the twins but not MM so I assume the door still not fully opened but probably more than slightly ajar. But I remain sceptical about how much notice he took and his knowledge of how it should look.

So I'm unsure about the door but I think they'd have noticed if someone was there. But my opinions are coloured by my feeling that CB would be best off getting in and out as quickly as possible
 
Okapi said:
Just on the subject of MBM and her siblings' sleeping habits, this article references what KM had to say about it in her book.

Kate McCann: Why Maddie’s ‘worrying’ comment left mother ‘puzzled’ on day of disappearance

Quote:
"Gerry and I were disconcerted, could Madeleine and Sean have woken up while we were at dinner?

“If so, it was worrying, obviously, but it did not seem probable.

“As I’ve said, not only did they rarely stir at all at night, but if they did it was hardly ever, and I mean ever, before the early hours.

“If they had done so on this occasion, it would mean they had woken up, cried for a while, calmed themselves down and fallen asleep again.”

Kate went on to explain the idea of both the children waking up and not being noticed by the parents doing checks was unlikely, but not impossible.

She continued: “All of this would have been in the space of 30 or 45 minutes.

“Children usually need some soothing back to sleep once they’ve woken, especially if two of them are awake and upset at the same time.

“It seems highly unlikely they would have gone through all these stages without one of them overlapping with one of our checks.

“It was not impossible, but it seemed implausible."
Click to expand...
There is MMs comment but there is also the witness PF who heard a child crying for an hour on the 1st. I think that is significant
 
Anxala said:
It really is. And I'll just leave that there.
Click to expand...

Thinking about it some more, what I find odd is the ongoing unstructured media briefings, especially to tabloid media, compared to the initial splash
 
Newthoughts said:
There is MMs comment but there is also the witness PF who heard a child crying for an hour on the 1st. I think that is significant
Click to expand...
I'm not sure, there was lots of young kids at the complex, and if mm cried that loud for that long, surely one of the twins would of woken too, jmo
 
In the grand scheme of things, mm went missing between 9 and 10pm, it wasn't a burglary gone wrong, the only thing that went missing is a child, so it is really now about, where did she go, who took her, why was she taken, and who took her, don't think the door window scenario matters now, and I don't thi k she was big enough to open the doors herself, if she had wandered off, surely she would of been shouting for mummy and daddy, and their room from patio entrance was right by a reception area, and would she walk off, leaving baby brother and sister, I think the case is passed the window doors situation, its about who took her
 
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I don't doubt what she heard, but if that was me, I would of reported it a reception.
I was on holiday once, and a couple in the next room was having a proper argument, and it wasn't stopping, so me and my friend knocked on their door, asking them to quieten down, but it started again, we then called reception, to get them to speak to them,
so if you was on holiday, and a child was crying for that long, would you do anything?, I know I would
 
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Today has been CB's parole-board hearing for the actual conviction of drug-trafficking at Braunschweig court.

So in the next days/weeks the descision will be made, but it should be just a theoretical issue, due to the arrest warrant in the rape-case, that is still valid.

We'll see...
 
<modsnip: Quoted post was removed>

And if you read, she says the floor below, and the crying only stopped when the parents got back, so anyone outside would of heard, especially returning parents, and I don't think the mccanns mentioned getting in one night and mm was awake crying. ?? Correct me if they have said something about it.
I think we all interpret things differently, that's all
 
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