Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect #30

DNA Solves
DNA Solves
DNA Solves
Status
Not open for further replies.
* Disclaimer: We don't know what HCWs evidence is that might link the cases *

At least at common law, what you list above would be inadmissible as propensity evidence.

What you need are facts that are so similar, they link the cases (a so called MO)

So in the HB case, break in to the apartment, the videoing, the clothing, and extended nature of the attack, taken together, increase the likelihood it was the same attacker as the American woman. There is a definite style or signature.

By itself, being the kind of person who attacks weak victims doesn't make it more likely you attacked this victim, where identity is the question.

* Before everyone jumps in - this post is intended only to explain how similar fact and propensity evidence are handled *
I don't understand from your post what you are dismissing as propensity evidence.
That HCW is linking the 3 cases together , DM HB and MM, is irrefutable from his quotes. Therefore the MO must be found in all 3 cases and not only in the two violent and sadistic rapes (for only one of which CB has been convicted). So it cannot be only the entry/exit point that links these 3 cases but something else as well.

what is propensity evidence here?
 
I don't understand from your post what you are dismissing as propensity evidence.
That HCW is linking the 3 cases together , DM HB and MM, is irrefutable from his quotes. Therefore the MO must be found in all 3 cases and not only in the two violent and sadistic rapes (for only one of which CB has been convicted). So it cannot be only the entry/exit point that links these 3 cases but something else as well.

what is propensity evidence here?
I don't pretend to speak for the OP but as I (think I) understand it, to say, since he commit these other crimes, it's likely he commit this crime, is to use propensity thinking.

In this case, I think the link goes beyond that. IMO there is something linking the three crimes. It could be as simple as the sane fixed angle from which the photos were taken. It could be the same sick prop. The same violent action.

JMO
 
Last edited:
First:

* Before everyone jumps in - this post is intended only to explain how similar fact and propensity evidence are handled *

Second:

"Maybe the judge will think that somebody who has raped more than one woman in the same place where Madeleine was taken would also be more likely to take and kill a young girl. It says something about his character," Wolters said.

The prosecutor made a propensity argument in a direct quote.

I agree he also made a similar fact argument - which we cannot currently evaluate, as he has not explained how the rape cases are similar to the MM case.
 
I don't pretend to speak for the OP but as I (think I) understand it, to say, since he commit these other crimes, it's likely he commit this crime, is to use propensity thinking.
YES
In this case, I think the link goes neyond that. IMO there is something linking the three crimes. It could be as simple as the sane fixed angle from which the photos were taken. It could be the same sick prop. The same violent action.

JMO

Yes - but at this time, the prosecutor has not explained what the link is.
 
I don't pretend to speak for the OP but as I (think I) understand it, to say, since he commit these other crimes, it's likely he commit this crime, is to use propensity thinking.

In this case, I think the link goes beyond that. IMO there is something linking the three crimes. It could be as simple as the sane fixed angle from which the photos were taken. It could be the same sick prop. The same violent action.

JMO

^ That's an interesting thought, Megnut, that maybe there's some element in the imagery that connects the 3 cases...

It's so difficult to speculate with so little to go on in the MM case.
 
I don't believe for one minute you're trying to minimise the act of DM's rape but there is an extra component, torture.
The rape of DM was sadistic and involved torture.
The alleged rape of HB was sadistic and involved torture.
The other 2 alleged rapes, from what we've heard from MS, suggested torture.
The Skype chat referred to 'torturing' a little one and documenting it.
The content found a the box factory, contained bestiality (category A in UK) category A also includes sadism, so we can only speculate what else was found.

Mark T hoffman (Criminal profiler) 'CB was into violence and torture and rape against vulnerable, weak, easy victims'...... ( 50 mins Aus)

I realise we're not privy to all the evidence where MM is concerned, but is it really that much of a leap?
It's not even a small step IMO, it's a perp walking sideways.
These aren't tenuous links.



JMO

I'm afraid for me it still is a leap.

But good to know that we can at least agree that I'm not trying to minimise anything here as regards the sick and sadistic nature of both the rape CB's serving time for and the ones he's potentially facing charges for.
 
I don't believe for one minute you're trying to minimise the act of DM's rape but there is an extra component, torture.
The rape of DM was sadistic and involved torture.
The alleged rape of HB was sadistic and involved torture.
The other 2 alleged rapes, from what we've heard from MS, suggested torture.
The Skype chat referred to 'torturing' a little one and documenting it.
The content found a the box factory, contained bestiality (category A in UK) category A also includes sadism, so we can only speculate what else was found.

Mark T hoffman (Criminal profiler) 'CB was into violence and torture and rape against vulnerable, weak, easy victims'...... ( 50 mins Aus)

I realise we're not privy to all the evidence where MM is concerned, but is it really that much of a leap?
It's not even a small step IMO, it's a perp walking sideways.
These aren't tenuous links.



JMO
I totally agree, all connected and relevant, a person's history, especially criminals all adds up. If it is a one off crime, as in the perpetrator knows their victim, and has been wronged (or so they think in there head). They may not commit another crime. But CB started at a young age, we know of the crime of an elderly person, (convicted). And then young children (convicted). People needs watch more crime programs of convicted criminals, and that explains it all imo
 
^ That's an interesting thought, Megnut, that maybe there's some element in the imagery that connects the 3 cases...

It's so difficult to speculate with so little to go on in the MM case.
Actually having a link between these 3 cases gives us more space and food for thought to speculate on the nature of the evidence in the MM case. This is what I find v interesting that HCW linked these 3 cases.

We can start from the cases we know more about and find the link to the MM case and not the other way round
 
Actually having a link between these 3 cases gives us more space and food for thought to speculate on the nature of the evidence in the MM case. This is what I find v interesting that HCW linked these 3 cases.

We can start from the cases we know more about and find the link to the MM case and not the other way round
The link could be Das Buch? If it/they exist.
He could have kept a log of his multiple crimes. On investigation, one has been proven with conviction secured, with several more charges in the pipeline. If a written account of the murder of MM exists in amongst crimes that he has been convicted for/is subsequently convicted for, it makes it less likely that any account of MM in there is “fantasy”.

We have several GA fans in here that have no doubt read his book, anyone willing to share their opinions?
 
Actually having a link between these 3 cases gives us more space and food for thought to speculate on the nature of the evidence in the MM case. This is what I find v interesting that HCW linked these 3 cases.
[/
Hopefully one day he will share his evidence!

The link could be Das Buch? If it/they exist.
He could have kept a log of his multiple crimes. On investigation, one has been proven with conviction secured, with several more charges in the pipeline. If a written account of the murder of MM exists in amongst crimes that he has been convicted for/is subsequently convicted for, it makes it less likely that any account of MM in there is “fantasy”.

We have several GA fans in here that have no doubt read his book, anyone willing to share their opinions?
 
That's plausible. The only thing is that I would think, if they had found a detailed written log of Brueckner's crimes, that, in its own right, would surely be sufficient to press charges?

As to Amaral's book, he re-wrote the whole of the shelved investigation.

According to it (his book) Mark Harrison turned the investigation into one for a little girl assumed dead and hidden (he didn't use the word buried) somewhere close to apartment 5a.

Actually, Harrison stood to attention and took orders from Amaral's boss (at the time), the now late Encarnacidio, to investigate that Madeleine had been murdered and buried. He did so, ruling out burial and making plain he had no real idea what had happened to Madeleine. But he thought it most likely, on balance of probabilities that IF Madeleine is dead, her remains were thrown into the sea. But Harrison really didn't know.

How on earth Amaral, in his book, mangled that into Harrison directing that searches should be made for Madeleine's body hidden, somewhere close to apartment 5a, actually, doesn't have to be guessed at.

Harrison did make a strictly abstract observation in his report that large, free-standing rocks on the beach could have been used to conceal the body of a small child.

Then he consulted statistical data bases from which he concluded that such a scenario, while precedented, is rare and highly unlikely to be what had happened to Madeleine.

Amaral, in his book, seized on that, and had Harrison turning the investigation into one for a little girl hidden somewhere close to 5a.

Amaral also said, in an interview, rather than his book, that "no one talked about murder"

Harrison is very clear that he was instructed to investigate murder and nothing else!

Amaral spews out mind-blowing eyewash that Kate and Gerry might have killed Madeleine with an overdose of calpol. He even managed to get in a reference to calpol-night, not even on the market at the time of their holiday.

That's the summary, of Amaral's book, not the investigation.
 
Sorry, having some trouble with my buttons.

My actual reply is below.
 
The link could be Das Buch? If it/they exist.
He could have kept a log of his multiple crimes. On investigation, one has been proven with conviction secured, with several more charges in the pipeline. If a written account of the murder of MM exists in amongst crimes that he has been convicted for/is subsequently convicted for, it makes it less likely that any account of MM in there is “fantasy”.

We have several GA fans in here that have no doubt read his book, anyone willing to share their opinions?
Images or videos aside, I totally agree with your interpretation of the link between the cases. Through what I've read elsewhere from the translation of Amaral's latest book, it appears he (GA) had been told about the existence (and possibly contents) of CB's criminal chronicles. As a master of presenting fiction as fact, he questioned whether Das Buch(s) was fiction or fact, so clearly whatever it may contain bothered Amaral.
I do wonder what FF makes of all these possible additional charges before Madeleine's files even reach his desk because he certainly wasn't signed up to defend CB in low-key cases.
 
Images or videos aside, I totally agree with your interpretation of the link between the cases. Through what I've read elsewhere from the translation of Amaral's latest book, it appears he (GA) had been told about the existence (and possibly contents) of CB's criminal chronicles. As a master of presenting fiction as fact, he questioned whether Das Buch(s) was fiction or fact, so clearly whatever it may contain bothered Amaral.
I do wonder what FF makes of all these possible additional charges before Madeleine's files even reach his desk because he certainly wasn't signed up to defend CB in low-key cases.
BBM
He can question it as fiction all he wants. He’s the first and only person to say it/they exist.
A hair isn’t fiction, though.
A partial fingerprint isn’t fiction, either.
If CB has written about these crimes - presumably in a word document found on one of his many storage devices - it can be dated. If it exists. Again, we only have GA’s word that it does. But if these accounts exist and he’s convicted of some of them, it makes the likelihood that other accounts are also accurate more sound.
The first Neuwegersleben raid was 2016, so he was being investigated from before then.
He was picked up in SBdM in 2017.
Apparently BKA knew about the partial fingerprint in HB’s case from 2017.
They’ve apparently known about him re: MM since 2013 but have only been investigating him since 2017.
Charged and convicted of rape in 2019.
Then in 2019, GA talked about a “German Patsy” in the MM case.

IMO, it’s obvious there has been cooperation between BKA and PJ prior to June 2020 and that this was leaked to GA, who has since tried to make money from it.
 
The link could be Das Buch? If it/they exist.
He could have kept a log of his multiple crimes. On investigation, one has been proven with conviction secured, with several more charges in the pipeline. If a written account of the murder of MM exists in amongst crimes that he has been convicted for/is subsequently convicted for, it makes it less likely that any account of MM in there is “fantasy”.

We have several GA fans in here that have no doubt read his book, anyone willing to share their opinions?

BIB - I find it a lot more convincing than the photo/video theory

We know this is how CB put himself in the frame in the first place.

As with the American woman, it may also be the police know of evidence that existed, but they do not actually have it.
 
BIB - I find it a lot more convincing than the photo/video theory

We know this is how CB put himself in the frame in the first place.

As with the American woman, it may also be the police know of evidence that existed, but they do not actually have it.
Indeed. And this would also explain CB's reference to writing a fictional autobiography which will sell many copies(!) In one of his letters. Possibly CB will try to disregard this (IF such exists) as fictional. So my qs is: if HCW gets a conviction for HB (and if this is included in Das Buch), if reference to MM is included in Das Buch, would this be acceptable evidence in court to convict him in the case of MM? We also do not know if evidence from Das Buch has been included in the trial for DM's rape. It is not available...
 
Indeed. And this would also explain CB's reference to writing a fictional autobiography which will sell many copies(!) In one of his letters. Possibly CB will try to disregard this (IF such exists) as fictional. So my qs is: if HCW gets a conviction for HB (and if this is included in Das Buch), if reference to MM is included in Das Buch, would this be acceptable evidence in court to convict him in the case of MM? We also do not know if evidence from Das Buch has been included in the trial for DM's rape. It is not available...

it would be pretty much up to the judges to assess the reliability and probative value
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Members online

Online statistics

Members online
155
Guests online
3,135
Total visitors
3,290

Forum statistics

Threads
602,630
Messages
18,144,149
Members
231,468
Latest member
CapeCodTodd
Back
Top