Madeleine McCann: German Prisoner Identified as Suspect, #37

[Consider Dudley]

It’s suggested on this forum that the BKA don’t leak information, they are definitely not the PJ

The leak could still have come from the PJ, presumably they are being kept in the loop by the BKA, we just don’t know.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

It's known for certain he's on their DNA data base because of his conviction in the DM case so it's likely he'd be ruled out of all manner of unsolved cases where DNA evidence was collected.

Yep, that’s a fair point.

Additionally, Portugal started its DNA database in 2008 and joined the Prum data exchange in 2015.

So at any point, once CB’s DNA profile was collected, it would have been relatively easy to cross check against any unsolved crime in most of the EU where DNA evidence had been collected. If this was prior to the DM case, that is perhaps how he was linked - but I’m not stating this as a fact.

I think this points to CB being less of a prolific, indiscriminate sexual offender than has been suggested in the media. All JMO.

 

[onemoremiletogo]

Yep, that’s a fair point.

Additionally, Portugal started its DNA database in 2008 and joined the Prum data exchange in 2015.

So at any point, once CB’s DNA profile was collected, it would have been relatively easy to cross check against any unsolved crime in most of the EU where DNA evidence had been collected. If this was prior to the DM case, that is perhaps how he was linked - but I’m not stating this as a fact.

I think this points to CB being less of a prolific, indiscriminate sexual offender than has been suggested in the media. All JMO.

Yes, but for the cases where DNA evidence had been collected...
On HB's case I recalll reading about half a fingerprint? But I'm not sure.

Definitely do not support the last sentence.

 

[Mex]

It’s obvious that people who commit murder must at some point do so for the first time, IMO, plucking another case from the air is not worth mentioning.

Does CB’s recorded show show any attempted abduction? Does it show attempted murder? Any stabbing or strangulations?

IMO, CB put himself into situations where he could have murdered people. He broke into a home and attacked the owner but he didn’t abduct anyone. Given he put himself into these situations, why are there no attempts for the crimes that he is suspected of committing against MM?

It seems remarkable that people persistently argue the finer points of MO on the five previously charged cases but now don’t see the disconnect between what CB has done and the MM case.

If he was an abductor and murderer, why are there no convictions for similar, despite thousands of media articles, there aren’t even any reports of him ever abducting or trying to abduct anyone? Why?

You are arguing at cross purposes.

On the one hand you are pushing the point that CB's criminal record is an irrelevance. On the other you are arguing that because his criminal record does not feature abduction and murder he would not have done such a thing while you argue that he could have.

Among CB’s earlier convictions are very relevant and serious ones for which which he fled Germany. Which despite his youth pointed firmly towards his predilections for the future.

He fled to the Algarve where he set up as much of a permanent residence as it suited him.

From where he was extradited to Germany as a result of his sexual crimes there.

He returned and although very active in his criminal career there, it was his extradition from Italy which led to his longest period of incarceration as an adult. He is still serving his time.

You mention the five charges made against him for sexual crimes in the Algarve, some of which involved children. Think of the evidence required to bring about those charges and the period of time involved over the years.

Did the Policia Judiciaria find him out in any of them even the one in which he was caught red handed resulting in arrest?
Did the PJ find him out in anything other than diesel theft? His crimes involving children and drug dealing centre very much on the BKA who also prosecuted him for the DM rape which took place in Praia da Luz. Worth giving it a passing thought.

My opinion

 

[Ausgrlz]

Well it's clearly not advanced the case, now it might be if intelligence was supplied by a third party it shows it not too reliable.A caveat ought by added, the story the Mail says is from a red top.

Interesting that it is red, remember this article about a red top

Maddie suspect wore distinctive t-shirt with a beer logo

Former Scotland Yard detective Peter Bleksley, 54, believes the suspect wore a distinct burgundy shirt which had a logo from the beer company Super Bock.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Davieson]

Interesting that it is red, remember this article about a red top

Maddie suspect wore distinctive t-shirt with a beer logo

Former Scotland Yard detective Peter Bleksley, 54, believes the suspect wore a distinct burgundy shirt which had a logo from the beer company Super Bock.

www.dailymail.co.uk

I can't see CB being described as pot-bellied by any stretch of the imagination.
Either CB wasn't the intruder in these cases, or pot-belly man was a red herring.

 

[RichardKimble]

Interesting that it is red, remember this article about a red top

Maddie suspect wore distinctive t-shirt with a beer logo

Former Scotland Yard detective Peter Bleksley, 54, believes the suspect wore a distinct burgundy shirt which had a logo from the beer company Super Bock.

www.dailymail.co.uk

The red top I referred to is one of the daily rags in the uk, Mirror, Sun and Star.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

Yes, but for the cases where DNA evidence had been collected...
On HB's case I recalll reading about half a fingerprint? But I'm not sure.

Definitely do not support the last sentence.

I agree it doesn’t include crimes where no DNA evidence was collected but we know it was collected in sexual crimes in 2004 because of the DM case.

There are no silver bullets just information that strengthens or weakens our thoughts.

IMO, this fact points to fewer crimes than more but there is no certainty.

 

[RichardKimble]

I can't see CB being described as pot-bellied by any stretch of the imagination.
Either CB wasn't the intruder in these cases, or pot-belly man was a red herring.

Pot belly, smelly man, haven't had egg shaped head for awhile.Any of these resemble CB ?

Madeleine McCann: Crimewatch response 'overwhelming'

Police probing the disappearance of Madeleine McCann in Portugal say there was an "overwhelming response" to an appeal on the BBC's Crimewatch programme with nearly 1,000 calls and emails.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Denis R Tandib]

You are arguing at cross purposes.

On the one hand you are pushing the point that CB's criminal record is an irrelevance. On the other you are arguing that because his criminal record does not feature abduction and murder he would not have done such a thing while you argue that he could have.

Among CB’s earlier convictions are very relevant and serious ones for which which he fled Germany. Which despite his youth pointed firmly towards his predilections for the future.

He fled to the Algarve where he set up as much of a permanent residence as it suited him.

From where he was extradited to Germany as a result of his sexual crimes there.

He returned and although very active in his criminal career there, it was his extradition from Italy which led to his longest period of incarceration as an adult. He is still serving his time.

You mention the five charges made against him for sexual crimes in the Algarve, some of which involved children. Think of the evidence required to bring about those charges and the period of time involved over the years.

the Policia Judiciaria find him out in any of them even the one in which he was caught red handed resulting in arrest?
Did the PJ find him out in anything other than diesel theft? His crimes involving children and drug dealing centre very much on the BKA who also prosecuted him for the DM rape which took place in Praia da Luz. Worth giving it a passing thought.

My opinion

No, that is wrong.

I am arguing that there is no consistency of the crimes from his record and those he is accused of committing against MM. it’s not an opinion, it’s a fact - no convictions for abduction or murder. It’s very easy to understand.

I have explained my understanding of his crimes, his decisions to avoid justice and his extraditions back to Germany. This doesn’t change the fact that he has no convictions for abduction or murder.

His crimes against children in Portugal are inconsistent with what he is accused of with MM: public exposure and public masturbation are incomparable to abduction and murder.

There are no current charges against him, they have been thrown out and we have no idea if they will be charged again.

In the playground public exposure allegation, he was caught red handed by an off duty Portuguese police officer, arrested and extradited for the crime against his girlfriend’s daughter. Why would the PJ bring him to justice in this instance?

 

[Okapi]

Although most of his convictions are for lower-level crime, the existing sex crime convictions (few as they are) do seem to carry weight.

I would think that his parole appeal was quashed (“too dangerous to be freed”) at least partly because of his sex crimes, rather than the petty theft and drugs charges.

‘But the panel were thought to judge him at high risk of reoffending.’

BBM. I presume this assessment included ongoing clinical psychology profiling during his time in jail.

To my mind, the panel must have some basis for that decision, and it isn’t necessarily in the public realm, or related to his known crimes.

Maddie McCann No.1 suspect ruled too dangerous to be freed as parole denied

Brueckner became eligible for parole after serving half of his sentence, with time spent on remand taken into account

www.mirror.co.uk

Just my thoughts.

 

[Okapi]

No, that is wrong.

I am arguing that there is no consistency of the crimes from his record and those he is accused of committing against MM. it’s not an opinion, it’s a fact - no convictions for abduction or murder. It’s very easy to understand.

I have explained my understanding of his crimes, his decisions to avoid justice and his extraditions back to Germany. This doesn’t change the fact that he has no convictions for abduction or murder.

His crimes against children in Portugal are inconsistent with what he is accused of with MM: public exposure and public masturbation are incomparable to abduction and murder.

There are no current charges against him, they have been thrown out and we have no idea if they will be charged again.

In the playground public exposure allegation, he was caught red handed by an off duty Portuguese police officer, arrested and extradited for the crime against his girlfriend’s daughter. Why would the PJ bring him to justice in this instance?

Intriguing question. Was it because LE were finally joining the dots and the impetus was coming from the German police?

‘German authorities issued an EU-wide arrest warrant*, but it was four years before officers in Portugal seized him after responding to reports that he had exposed himself to children at a park about 40 miles from Praia da Luz. ‘
*re the abuse of the girlfriend’s daughter.

Jmo

Christian Brueckner was jailed for abusing ex-girlfriend's daughter

 

[Pixie Child]

Interesting that it is red, remember this article about a red top

Maddie suspect wore distinctive t-shirt with a beer logo

Former Scotland Yard detective Peter Bleksley, 54, believes the suspect wore a distinct burgundy shirt which had a logo from the beer company Super Bock.

www.dailymail.co.uk

I’ve seen this story before but don’t recall the ‘Super Bock’ part. I hope that detail got some coverage in the Algarve.

 

[Davieson]

Intriguing question. Was it because LE were finally joining the dots and the impetus was coming from the German police?

‘German authorities issued an EU-wide arrest warrant*, but it was four years before officers in Portugal seized him after responding to reports that he had exposed himself to children at a park about 40 miles from Praia da Luz. ‘
*re the abuse of the girlfriend’s daughter.

Jmo

Christian Brueckner was jailed for abusing ex-girlfriend's daughter

I suppose it could be because Portuguese authorities had no idea where he was.
Being part of the EU, CB could come and go as he liked across borders and unless he drew attention to himself, (like getting arrested), he could remain pretty anonymous.

 

[Mex]

No, that is wrong.

I am arguing that there is no consistency of the crimes from his record and those he is accused of committing against MM. it’s not an opinion, it’s a fact - no convictions for abduction or murder. It’s very easy to understand.

I have explained my understanding of his crimes, his decisions to avoid justice and his extraditions back to Germany. This doesn’t change the fact that he has no convictions for abduction or murder.

His crimes against children in Portugal are inconsistent with what he is accused of with MM: public exposure and public masturbation are incomparable to abduction and murder.

There are no current charges against him, they have been thrown out and we have no idea if they will be charged again.

In the playground public exposure allegation, he was caught red handed by an off duty Portuguese police officer, arrested and extradited for the crime against his girlfriend’s daughter. Why would the PJ bring him to justice in this instance?

Of course your argument is easy to understand as you are revisiting the points I said you were in my post in total ignorance of
a) police investigation
b) police evidence

There was evidence enough to bring five independent charges spanning a number of years against CB and the jurisdiction issue will be resolved on them at some point.

In answer to your question which is I think quite an extraordinary one ~ the Portuguese police are tasked with policing the law and order in Portugal. They have a role in combatting crime committed against Portuguese citizens which includes children and charging and prosecuting miscreants. It is on record that they have often been derelict in that duty on many occasions. This is an example of one.

It was said that CB was not alone during the playground incident. One wonders if his alleged companion who legged it while the off duty policewoman who arrested CB was protecting him from irate parents might have had a camera with him to film the abuse in progress.

Was he only a voyeur or did he have a function and a role to play?
___________________________________


CB was seen with "a blond man" on the night he was arrested by Portuguese authorities for showing off to four children in a park in 2017.

The 43-year-old German had been spotted the same night with a man of similar physical stature at a festival in the village of São Bartolomeu de Messines, in the municipality of Silves, according to police sources.

The two men headed to the playground, where CB reportedly hid under a slide with his pants down his knees. It was a police officer who noticed CB, having tried to control the situation when some parents tried to confront him. "She called for reinforcements. Witnesses said a second man fled the scene," the Mirror quoted him as saying. The incident, however, was eventually shelved.

According to the newspaper, the descriptions of CB and his companion are similar to the descriptions heard regarding Maddie's disappearance in 2007.

Christian Brueckner teria cúmplice em Portugal em 2017, "um homem loiro"

www.noticiasaominuto.com

 

[mrjitty]

The reason this is all going round in circles is you cannot build an evidential case this way.

Profiling is an investigatory tool. If you actually charge a case then you can use the exceptions to the rules against similar fact evidence in limited ways. e.g in the potential HB trial, the uniquely similar nature of the rape of the american woman might be regarded by the judges as also probative. So you have the eye witness identification from the victim, plus similar fact. However without the witness testimony, you cannot use this kind of reasoning absent a unique signature.

Of itself, CBs criminal records does not make it more or less likely he did it. Even if he broke into holidays apartments, and even into OC. We need more, and we don't have knowledge of what the 'more' is. Otherwise you run into the logical fallacy of claiming CB likely is responsible for numerous of these reported offences, despite us having no evidence he is tied to even one of them.

At the end of the day, it should make no difference whether this type of evidence is assessed by judges alone (germany) as opposed to judge and jury (UK)

The Judges will need to see clear evidence linking CB to the actual murder, before they would be willing to entertain similar fact evidence.

Personally I think we cannot evaluate any of this, until HCW shows his hand.

But from my POV, it is increasingly hard to know what else HCWs team is working on all this time. My feeling is they are still looking for a break in the case, and often these come externally, as was the case so far.

An accomplice ratted CB out. yet despite this, 3 years later still no charge. So either the evidence is gone, is hard to find, or does not exist.

If we are still hear having the same discussions in a year, can we really maintain the idea this investigation is till on track?

 

[RichardKimble]

The reason this is all going round in circles is you cannot build an evidential case this way.

Profiling is an investigatory tool. If you actually charge a case then you can use the exceptions to the rules against similar fact evidence in limited ways. e.g in the potential HB trial, the uniquely similar nature of the rape of the american woman might be regarded by the judges as also probative. So you have the eye witness identification from the victim, plus similar fact. However without the witness testimony, you cannot use this kind of reasoning absent a unique signature.

Of itself, CBs criminal records does not make it more or less likely he did it. Even if he broke into holidays apartments, and even into OC. We need more, and we don't have knowledge of what the 'more' is. Otherwise you run into the logical fallacy of claiming CB likely is responsible for numerous of these reported offences, despite us having no evidence he is tied to even one of them.

At the end of the day, it should make no difference whether this type of evidence is assessed by judges alone (germany) as opposed to judge and jury (UK)

The Judges will need to see clear evidence linking CB to the actual murder, before they would be willing to entertain similar fact evidence.

Personally I think we cannot evaluate any of this, until HCW shows his hand.

But from my POV, it is increasingly hard to know what else HCWs team is working on all this time. My feeling is they are still looking for a break in the case, and often these come externally, as was the case so far.

An accomplice ratted CB out. yet despite this, 3 years later still no charge. So either the evidence is gone, is hard to find, or does not exist.

If we are still hear having the same discussions in a year, can we really maintain the idea this investigation is till on track?

Back to 2014, OG targeted 3 locals from phone records and you'd think at least one had a conviction for some kind of theft,the thinking was a robbery gone wrong, CB it's alleged had a record as well and yet they never had cause to suspect him.Your second to last para sums it up with ,does not exist.

 

[Mex]

The reason this is all going round in circles is you cannot build an evidential case this way.

Profiling is an investigatory tool. If you actually charge a case then you can use the exceptions to the rules against similar fact evidence in limited ways. e.g in the potential HB trial, the uniquely similar nature of the rape of the american woman might be regarded by the judges as also probative. So you have the eye witness identification from the victim, plus similar fact. However without the witness testimony, you cannot use this kind of reasoning absent a unique signature.

Of itself, CBs criminal records does not make it more or less likely he did it. Even if he broke into holidays apartments, and even into OC. We need more, and we don't have knowledge of what the 'more' is. Otherwise you run into the logical fallacy of claiming CB likely is responsible for numerous of these reported offences, despite us having no evidence he is tied to even one of them.

At the end of the day, it should make no difference whether this type of evidence is assessed by judges alone (germany) as opposed to judge and jury (UK)

The Judges will need to see clear evidence linking CB to the actual murder, before they would be willing to entertain similar fact evidence.

Personally I think we cannot evaluate any of this, until HCW shows his hand.

But from my POV, it is increasingly hard to know what else HCWs team is working on all this time. My feeling is they are still looking for a break in the case, and often these come externally, as was the case so far.

An accomplice ratted CB out. yet despite this, 3 years later still no charge. So either the evidence is gone, is hard to find, or does not exist.

If we are still hear having the same discussions in a year, can we really maintain the idea this investigation is till on track?

I think you are correct that irrespective of what has gone before these five cases are stand alone and each will be looked at on it’s own merits.

I do not think the DM rape case will be considered in relation to any of the three charges. Nor do I think any of the three will be dependent on any other.

They will all have their own circumstances and their own evidence and will be dealt with accordingly and I am sure the prosecutors and BKA are ready to go once jurisdiction is settled just as they will know exactly where they are at in relation to the MM investigation.

 

[Davieson]

Back to 2014, OG targeted 3 locals from phone records and you'd think at least one had a conviction for some kind of theft,the thinking was a robbery gone wrong, CB it's alleged had a record as well and yet they never had cause to suspect him.Your second to last para sums it up with ,does not exist.

What Portuguese record would CB have had when OG started looking ? Theft for diesel.
Why would OG look at him over child abduction?

 

[Mex]

What Portuguese record would CB have had when OG started looking ? Theft for diesel.
Why would OG look at him over child abduction?

Did the men questioned under caution in 2014 have convictions for abduction? They were apparently questioned because they were petty criminals with a connection to the Ocean Club - and I think something about phone traffic.