Madeleine McCann: German Prisoner Identified as Suspect, #38

[mrjitty]

All the points about police resourcing and competence are moot IMO. Well-funded investigations by police from three countries have reviewed the crime for years. At least two private companies have also taken a look at it.

All have the same result: no conviction.

IMO, if CB is ultimately convicted (doubtful IMO) it won’t be because of funding or superior investigative police work, it will be due to luck.

HB’s information was the break in the case and it had nothing to do with funding or competence.

Agreed.

Often in these cases, the body is found later by accident and that is what breaks the case.

 

[mrjitty]

Possibly luck and lost loyalties.

I'm following such a case (Morphew) and I think we are down to needing luck or a girlfriend blabbing

The problem is, the accused did not leave any forensics which indicate where/how the body was disposed of.

What puzzles me, is what HCW thought would come from a public appeal, that would not come from known associates of CB that were likely already investigated. Was he hoping for something like the HB tip where a member of the public would recall having seen CB in a particular area or link him to other crimes?

 

[Lyall0814]

They may have known the press were going to break the story anyway? Very possibly not the UK tabloids for a change but Germany's own Der Spiegel, who published CB's full name even before HCW's first appeal/conference.

 

[Mex]

All the points about police resourcing and competence are moot IMO. Well-funded investigations by police from three countries have reviewed the crime for years. At least two private companies have also taken a look at it.

All have the same result: no conviction.

IMO, if CB is ultimately convicted (doubtful IMO) it won’t be because of funding or superior investigative police work, it will be due to luck.

HB’s information was the break in the case and it had nothing to do with funding or competence.

I really do agree that luck can solve cases. Sometimes you make your own luck. But unless you put in the hard work you've got no chance.

 

[Lyall0814]

I'm following such a case (Morphew) and I think we are down to needing luck or a girlfriend blabbing

The problem is, the accused did not leave any forensics which indicate where/how the body was disposed of.

What puzzles me, is what HCW thought would come from a public appeal, that would not come from known associates of CB that were likely already investigated. Was he hoping for something like the HB tip where a member of the public would recall having seen CB in a particular area or link him to other crimes?

Apart from the phone the evidence they have (or had) is just detective novel type stuff. Without being able to say he was somewhere in PdL it all falls I think. So they appealed for information on the phone, and the TV shows asked people if they could ID CB as having been near the Ocean Club. The Aussie Sixty Minutes prog of June 2020 pleads for someone to say that.

 

[frank-cole]

CB and others ran free as they wanted years and years repeating and repeating.

In the case of portuguese police forces my point is more on how immensely unprepared (also in the attitude, behavior and composture) they were towards the greed of the tourism phenomenon in the Algarve region. The petty crime progression and escalation. Up to the unrecoverable and irreplaceable of human lifes.

Great point. The criminals in that area must have operated with a degree of confidence

IMO CB knew the PJ wouldn’t catch him for the serious sex crimes he was committing & he was right!

 

[Denis R Tandib]

I really do agree that luck can solve cases. Sometimes you make your own luck. But unless you put in the hard work you've got no chance.

Says who?

Lots of leg work was done for over 10 years, no results. Only luck delivered todays suspect… the same will probably be true for tomorrows.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

We are talking about people safety.

In the Algarve I really think there was terrible disproportion in relation to crime repetition and increase and how inact and incompetent Police forces were. And during so much time. I'm definitely not going with the banalization and generalization of mistakes, incompetence in this context.

Respectfully, I think you are using over estimating it due to your familiarity with the area.

I am almost certain that petty and violent crime rates in most UK cities but certainly London, Birmingham, Manchester, Sheffield, Glasgow and Belfast would be way higher than the Algarve.

I’ll try and find a source but any per capita measure would not have Portugal ranking highly.

 

[Mex]

CB and others ran free as they wanted years and years repeating and repeating.

In the case of portuguese police forces my point is more on how immensely unprepared (also in the attitude, behavior and composture) they were towards the greed of the tourism phenomenon in the Algarve region. The petty crime progression and escalation. Up to the unrecoverable and irreplaceable of human lifes.

There is puzzlement about how the MM case became such an example of poor policing when so much of the initial work was quite obviously carried out to a high standard.

Some of it must have been lost because of initial poor record keeping (information left scattered about on scraps of paper which had to be collated and digitised) when a new senior officer was put in charge.

Snip
The new coordinator of the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) of Portimao led a team of six investigators who, throughout the afternoon, tested several scenarios and even made a possible reconstitution of what happened on the evening of May 3, in the apartment nr. 5A of the Ocean Club.
In the company of the team members that he brought in from Lisbon - composed of two homicide inspectors, one from sexual abuse, another that is experienced in robberies and two specialists in technical analysis - Paulo R tried to find details and loose ends that may open new leads or confirm the existing ones.
_________________________________________

Halfway through the afternoon, Paulo R crossed the street into the direction of the area that gives access to RM's house, as if he were evaluating the distance between the villa and the apartment. When CM asked him what the purpose of that diligence was, he just replied he "was working".
The Maddie Case Files-Rebelo tests scenarios in Luz. CdM 30.10.07

Nothing can be done about leadership. You do as you are told. But the potential was there as can be seen from some of the work they left behind which was salvaged and put on record under the Paulo R leadership.


Sorry, I digress from my intended post which although nothing to do with MM gives an indication of some police working practices which I found astounding.

SUSANA DURAO
The police community on the move: hierarchy and management in the daily lives of Portuguese police officers

http://www.susanadurao.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Article-_-018.pdf

 

[mrjitty]

Apart from the phone the evidence they have (or had) is just detective novel type stuff. Without being able to say he was somewhere in PdL it all falls I think. So they appealed for information on the phone, and the TV shows asked people if they could ID CB as having been near the Ocean Club. The Aussie Sixty Minutes prog of June 2020 pleads for someone to say that.

Here is a hypothetical

1. Let's accept some of the reporting/allegations as true. Career burglar, including OC. Repeat rapist. Call places him in the area on that night.
2. He didn't leave any forensics in 5a, and did not take anything
3. No eye witness.
4. Disposed of victim within hours (IMO almost certain)

Given the above, it is extremely challenging to prove murder, unless you can find the body and link him to it OR he kept a trophy of some kind that you can gather as evidence.

IMO, they try to gather an insight of where he went.

If CB is the killer, the reservoir theory may not have been incorrect - it's just he may have chosen a different disposal site. The disposal site is often at random - a place not linked to the killer.

02c

 

[Mex]

The weight and truth of the evidence will find a suspect out and lead to a conviction, clearly its not there with CB despite 6 years of investigating him.

The weight and truth of the evidence found CB who is now prime suspect in Germany and Britain and arguido in Portugal.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

I'm following such a case (Morphew) and I think we are down to needing luck or a girlfriend blabbing

The problem is, the accused did not leave any forensics which indicate where/how the body was disposed of.

What puzzles me, is what HCW thought would come from a public appeal, that would not come from known associates of CB that were likely already investigated. Was he hoping for something like the HB tip where a member of the public would recall having seen CB in a particular area or link him to other crimes?

BBM, You would think he was looking for an accomplice but this is at odds with the point that CB acted alone. At this stage, we are unaware of any associates coming forward since the appeal - they were all know to LE prior and it’s unlikely anyone will come forward now.

 

[mrjitty]

BBM, You would think he was looking for an accomplice but this is at odds with the point that CB acted alone. At this stage, we are unaware of any associates coming forward since the appeal - they were all know to LE prior and it’s unlikely anyone will come forward now.

It's odd to me they got the tip on the reservoir after 3 years

 

[Denis R Tandib]

The weight and truth if the evidence found CB who is now prime suspect in Germany and Britain and arguido in Portugal.

The evidence didn’t find CB, HB gave OG the name.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

It's odd to me they got the tip on the reservoir after 3 years

We have no idea who or what the tip was. It doesn’t appear to have been great though.

There always seems to be a need for the prosecutor to keep the story going. It’s a bit weird IMO.

 

[Mex]

Apart from the phone the evidence they have (or had) is just detective novel type stuff. Without being able to say he was somewhere in PdL it all falls I think. So they appealed for information on the phone, and the TV shows asked people if they could ID CB as having been near the Ocean Club. The Aussie Sixty Minutes prog of June 2020 pleads for someone to say that.

The phone evidence was there in 2007.
The PJ investigators were so tied into their suspects' phone traffic (check the PJ files for that) they didn't check it out properly in 2007.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

The phone evidence was there in 2007.
The PJ investigators were so tied into their suspects' phone traffic (heck the PJ files for that) they didn't check it out properly in 2007.

Even when it was checked out properly in 2013, it didn’t lead to CB, perhaps the PJ knew it was a low-chance of success lead.

 

[Mex]

Great point. The criminals in that area must have operated with a degree of confidence

IMO CB knew the PJ wouldn’t catch him for the serious sex crimes he was committing & he was right!

A thought occurs about those crimes.

The PJ reopened the MM case on the strength of new evidence and immediately homed in on EM who had died some time previously. I don't know the date because I can find absolutely nothing about his accident which if it had been a tractor accident on a golf course one might have expected a line or two about it somewhere.

But apparently it is said that there were no further home invasions and attacks on girls after his demise.

CB too had left Luz. In his case for for Germany.

 

[Denis R Tandib]

A thought occurs about those crimes.

The PJ reopened the MM case on the strength of new evidence and immediately homed in on EM who had died some time previously. I don't know the date because I can find absolutely nothing about his accident which if it had been a tractor accident on a golf course one might have expected a line or two about it somewhere.

But apparently it is said that there were no further home invasions and attacks on girls after his demise.

CB too had left Luz. In his case for for Germany.

There is no evidence to show EM ever committed any CSA crimes. In relation to MM, the only thing linking him to the crime is that he made a phone call on the evening of 3 May.

Tell me, which one of the witness descriptions most closely matches EM?

 

[Mex]

Even when it was checked out properly in 2013, it didn’t lead to CB, perhaps the PJ knew it was a low-chance of success lead.

In 2007 it would have led to a lot more than CB's caller and phone - it would definitely have led to his vehicles.