Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect
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CoverMeCagney
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I can't recall who asked whether it was just tabloids reporting his name, but it seems most of the British press, including broadsheets like the Financial Times, have his name and picture on their front pages tomorrow.
Suspect in Madeleine case 'unmasked' in papers
Suspect in Madeleine case 'unmasked' in papers
D
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So what do we know for certain?
Child *advertiser censored* and found guilty of sexual assault against a child.
In the area and nearby at the time of the crime.
Changed the registered owner for the Jag the day after MM’s disappearance.
History of violent sex crime - convicted of violent rape.
Speculative film evidence of at least one further rape.
Reported confession in a bar - from the same witness who appears credible given the concurrent information regarding the rape of the elderly woman.
I’m usually open to coincidence but that’s shaping up quite convincingly. It’s definitely not enough though. I’m assuming they know more and they’re holding it back as the litmus test for any witnesses that now come forward.
Child *advertiser censored* and found guilty of sexual assault against a child.
In the area and nearby at the time of the crime.
Changed the registered owner for the Jag the day after MM’s disappearance.
History of violent sex crime - convicted of violent rape.
Speculative film evidence of at least one further rape.
Reported confession in a bar - from the same witness who appears credible given the concurrent information regarding the rape of the elderly woman.
I’m usually open to coincidence but that’s shaping up quite convincingly. It’s definitely not enough though. I’m assuming they know more and they’re holding it back as the litmus test for any witnesses that now come forward.
I really hope they have something solid because there is already a ton of sound and light around this!
D
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This is new...
In 2016, the Braunschweig district court sentenced him to 15 months for “sexual abuse of a child in the act of creating and possessing child pornographic material”.
It was inferred I know but this paper appear to be confirming that he made or makes child *advertiser censored*.
Link: Madeleine McCann suspect managed to flee to Portugal, Italy and Germany despite 26-year criminal past
In 2016, the Braunschweig district court sentenced him to 15 months for “sexual abuse of a child in the act of creating and possessing child pornographic material”.
It was inferred I know but this paper appear to be confirming that he made or makes child *advertiser censored*.
Link: Madeleine McCann suspect managed to flee to Portugal, Italy and Germany despite 26-year criminal past
RSBM
Right. The trouble I have had with all the Maddie suspects down the years, including Murat, is that they tend to be based on propensity reasoning rather than hard evidence. At law school you learn to be very careful about propensity because it leads easily to logical fallacies.
Here is why.
In my hometown there are (sadly) any number of sex offenders. So when a sex offence takes place, it is intellectually easy to pick one of the sex offenders in the neighbourhood and say "this is the kind of guy that does sex offending" therefore he probably did it. But maybe it was an offender unknown to us, or maybe there was not even a sex offence committed
This is why this kind of evidence is typically not allowed at trial, and why police tend to pursue a theory of the case and try to discover hard evidence to link an offender.
My problem with this case is the same one that plagued PJ and to my knowledge the Met never got past this either. If your theory of the case is abduction, then your investigation should produce evidence of an abduction, and clues as to identity. Sadly nothing ever came to light, but instead some forensic evidence of death in the apartment. This is why theory of the case has always tended to focus on removal of a body, rather than abduction, based on the little evidence known.
So now we have a tip off, and a load of sound and light that this is the kind of guy who would do this.
But i am not yet seeing anything which connects this guy directly to the disappearance. And if police had it, then surely he would be charged already?
I really hope they have something they are not telling us about
CoverMeCagney
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Well yes! Not from police investigation or media frenzy or because of the millions thrown at it, but because a drunk man in a pub casually mentioned it to his mate.. or whatever. I don't know what the result of this will be, but it just shows that sometimes crimes are well hidden (intentionally or by chance) and we can only wait for someone to slip up. I can think of dozens of cases on here where we could do with a 'drunk in a pub' situation!
Also, he was known to be routinely breaking into holiday homes and rooms at that place and time. IIRC, in spite of living there for over a decade, the DM says he left Portugal after the crime (not sure exactly when).
D
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RSBM
Right. The trouble I have had with all the Maddie suspects down the years, including Murat, is that they tend to be based on propensity reasoning rather than hard evidence. At law school you learn to be very careful about propensity because it leads easily to logical fallacies.
Here is why.
In my hometown there are (sadly) any number of sex offenders. So when a sex offence takes place, it is intellectually easy to pick one of the sex offenders in the neighbourhood and say "this is the kind of guy that does sex offending" therefore he probably did it. But maybe it was an offender unknown to us, or maybe there was not even a sex offence committed
This is why this kind of evidence is typically not allowed at trial, and why police tend to pursue a theory of the case and try to discover hard evidence to link an offender.
My problem with this case is the same one that plagued PJ and to my knowledge the Met never got past this either. If your theory of the case is abduction, then your investigation should produce evidence of an abduction, and clues as to identity. Sadly nothing ever came to light, but instead some forensic evidence of death in the apartment. This is why theory of the case has always tended to focus on removal of a body, rather than abduction, based on the little evidence known.
So now we have a tip off, and a load of sound and light that this is the kind of guy who would do this.
But i am not yet seeing anything which connects this guy directly to the disappearance. And if police had it, then surely he would be charged already?
I really hope they have something they are not telling us about
Me too. Although the very large scale appeal to the public makes me wonder if they actually do.
Sadly this kind of reporting is exactly what worries me
The tabloids create the suspicion he must be guilty because he did other bad crimes
Yes. That's the problem. I hope I am wrong.
CoverMeCagney
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Do we know, when this guy got arrested for the rape of the 72 year old, whether he pleaded guilty or not guilty? I may be reading things wrong, but if he confessed to the two crimes to his pal, but they only have DNA evidence from one, obviously that's the only one they could charge him with.
He can't have confessed anything about Madeleine to the police, otherwise they wouldn't need to go public to find the girlfriends name or the owners of the phone numbers. So did he admit to the other rape, or was he convicted on forensics?
He can't have confessed anything about Madeleine to the police, otherwise they wouldn't need to go public to find the girlfriends name or the owners of the phone numbers. So did he admit to the other rape, or was he convicted on forensics?
Schlumpfchen
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I would not give to much thought into the fact that he was looked into at the beginning, I think the number going around was 1 of 600? Because they looked into every charged sex offender in the area, so the reason for him being looked into back the might have been "just" due to the fact that he is a registered sex offender.
I read about this German suspect on my local news this morning. I remember when she disappeared, but never followed along with her case here as I joined much later. I was so surprised to read about the suspect. I always wondered what happened to Madeleine and pray this is the break LE and her family is looking for. I will try to follow along now.
Schlumpfchen
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I translated an article about that, I cant find the number of the post right now, you will have to look for it. He plead not guilty, claimed that the witnesses were not believable due to objections in their statements and was found guilty because of forensic evidence linking him to the crime scene. The video tapes were never seen by the police because the guys reporting the suspect said that they don't exist anymore.
D
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I
I see what you’re saying but until we know the wider context (presuming, optimistically, that the police know more and this is a manipulated drip feed) this may well be relevant. I understand that he can’t be pinned by it but we’re talking about child *advertiser censored* in a case where it’s long been speculated that could be the motive. Identifying behavioural patterns and form is part of the process. If, however, they have little more to go on and none of this release of information is being carefully measured then I completely agree with you. And yeah, let’s be honest, could well be the case.
D
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Supposedly witnesses shopped him and claimed they saw videos. They found the hair in the bed. No mention as to whether the victim had, at that time, capacity to ID.
D
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RSBM
Right. The trouble I have had with all the Maddie suspects down the years, including Murat, is that they tend to be based on propensity reasoning rather than hard evidence. At law school you learn to be very careful about propensity because it leads easily to logical fallacies.
Here is why.
In my hometown there are (sadly) any number of sex offenders. So when a sex offence takes place, it is intellectually easy to pick one of the sex offenders in the neighbourhood and say "this is the kind of guy that does sex offending" therefore he probably did it. But maybe it was an offender unknown to us, or maybe there was not even a sex offence committed
This is why this kind of evidence is typically not allowed at trial, and why police tend to pursue a theory of the case and try to discover hard evidence to link an offender.
My problem with this case is the same one that plagued PJ and to my knowledge the Met never got past this either. If your theory of the case is abduction, then your investigation should produce evidence of an abduction, and clues as to identity. Sadly nothing ever came to light, but instead some forensic evidence of death in the apartment. This is why theory of the case has always tended to focus on removal of a body, rather than abduction, based on the little evidence known.
So now we have a tip off, and a load of sound and light that this is the kind of guy who would do this.
But i am not yet seeing anything which connects this guy directly to the disappearance. And if police had it, then surely he would be charged already?
I really hope they have something they are not telling us about
I am buoyed by the reported insistence of German police that they’ve determined the method of death. I think they have more. I bloody hope so otherwise, yes, you’re absolutely right.
ETA removed pics out of respect for poster
Schlumpfchen request to not post them due to German law.
FWIW, complete speculation, observation imo.
One thing that i have noticed over the years posting here, is that it often seems that perverts have one wonky (stick out, pointy, unusual in some way, ear).
Curious about the wigs and exotic clothing, disguises or something else?
Who is Christian Brueckner? What we know about German Madeleine McCann suspect
“We found a bin bag and inside were wigs and exotic clothing – whether just fancy dress or something stranger I couldn’t tell.”
Madeleine McCann suspect posed as a Jaguar-driving playboy who was actually
Schlumpfchen request to not post them due to German law.
FWIW, complete speculation, observation imo.
One thing that i have noticed over the years posting here, is that it often seems that perverts have one wonky (stick out, pointy, unusual in some way, ear).
Curious about the wigs and exotic clothing, disguises or something else?
Who is Christian Brueckner? What we know about German Madeleine McCann suspect
“We found a bin bag and inside were wigs and exotic clothing – whether just fancy dress or something stranger I couldn’t tell.”
Madeleine McCann suspect posed as a Jaguar-driving playboy who was actually
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