Madeleine McCann: German prisoner identified as suspect

[Taskforce88]

I have some theories according this statement:
1. It's logic. Simple as that. The girl has been missing for so long that it is highly unlikely to find her alive. Why waste the time, energy and money in investigating her whereabouts when she is dead? It's easier to find a dead body then a living and moving person.
2. According to German law, anyone who has been missing for more than 10 years can be declared dead. If there is a clear sign that the missing person is in some danger that is threatening his life, he can be declared dead one year later. It might be that.
3. We do not know what he said when he was drunk. Maybe he confessed to have killed her. Maybe he implied it. Maybe they think if he raped her the way he did the poor old woman that Maddie had no chance to survive.
4. They took a look on the evidence collected by British and Portuguese police and came to different conclusions than them. Especially the cadaver dogs, as the results of cadaver dogs are accepted as evidence in court in Germany.

Interesting last part.

 

[Deleted member 268067]

The Sun here claims that he didn’t say he killed her but snatched her. So it would appear that this is not where the knowledge of supposed murder is coming from...

Also suggests that the film he showed in a bar 3 years ago was indeed footage of the crime against the 72 year old woman and it was this that led to his conviction.

This is is UK tabloid - obviously use your own judgement to unpick the integrity of it.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....adeleine-mccann-news-suspect-christian-b/amp/

 

[Schlumpfchen]

What sort of ridiculous law is this? Who makes them up? He could potentially get away with a brutal rape on a pensioner, despite dna evidence linking him to the crime, because of a technicality within European law? INSANE.

Especially in this case I have to agree, it is kind of ridiculous. But in many other cases this is helpful and can help protecting lifes. Just imagine that:
You flee a country because you published an article that the government didn't like and now you have to fear for your life. So you flee to a different country, to an european country to be exact. Now your goverment wants you back there to judge you for what you did. So they say they are investigating you in suspicion of something completely different, harmless and made up, like a speeding ticket or whatever. Now the country you fled to has to transfer you back to make sure your trial can take place. And as soon as you are there, you are prisoned for your published article. To protect you from that, there are laws in the European Union to make sure that you are just charged for the crimes you were deported for in the first place. This laws protected a lot of journalists and political refugees in the past, so I don't think it's completely ridiculous.

 

[Taskforce88]

Jim Gamble, who served as the senior child protection officer in the UK's first police investigation into Madeleine's disappearance, said it was the first time in 13 years "when I actually dare to hope".

The "circumstantial evidence" that had been shared by the police made the new suspect a "really significant person of interest", he said.

He said he believed the man "came to light a number of years ago" but was only being made public now because it was a "painstaking" process which began from "a point of chaos" after the initial investigation had been "bungled".

Madeleine McCann assumed dead - German prosecutors

 

[Satchie]

Not all child molesters are pedophiles: some predators target the vulnerable, like this suspect, a elderly woman and a child. They treat their victims as objects, age does not matter to them.

I wish I could find statistics, but I think abduction and murder of a 3 year old by a complete stranger is exceptionally rare. Usually it IS the parents or a family friend or acquaintance, just look at all the recent cases in the US. Paedophile cases I'm aware of target children aged maybe 6 or, more often, older pre-teen or young teens.

I think the reason this case is so famous is because it is exceptionally rare for such a small child to be abducted from her bed. JMO, but I don't think we can generalize about motive.

 

[Taskforce88]

I wish I could find statistics, but I think abduction and murder of a 3 year old by a complete stranger is exceptionally rare. Usually it IS the parents or a family friend or acquaintance, just look at all the recent cases in the US. Paedophile cases I'm aware of target children aged maybe 6 or, more often, older pre-teen or young teens.

I think the reason this case is so famous is because it is exceptionally rare for such a small child to be abducted from her bed. JMO, but I don't think we can generalize about motive.

It has similarities with the case on the Isle of Bute recently. The killer entered the property looking for drugs and snatched the little girl.

 

[Deleted member 268067]

As well as being a sex offender, he also appears to be a burglar of hotels and very violent. There’s still a chance it was never a planned abduction.

 

[mrjitty]

A note on jurisdiction

The Met have no jurisdiction to conduct an investigation in Germany (or Portugal) so in effect this is now a German case. Presumably the Met are providing support from their files and PJ are assisting with local investigative steps. But with the subject in jail in Germany, the german prosecutor will lead the investigation now.

For this reason I agree that this time it's different compared to the rather pathetic newspaper suspects cooked up each year and run up in the media.

What worries me is that we are seeing a lot of info placed in the media suggesting "he is the type of guy who could do this" but nothing specifically tying him to the crime.

The police are telling us the key breakthrough comes from a tip off / confession.

But unless they have more they are not telling us, this feels like pretty weak sauce.

One suspects that the police are going public like this precisely because they need someone to come forward with the hard evidence. But I do agree the German prosecutor would not do this unless he has at least one specific piece of evidence that puts this guy directly in the sights.

 

[Scorpiette]

If Goncalo Amaral is saying they have the wrong man, why is he saying that, and who does he believe is now the culprit?

 

[Satchie]

The Sun here claims that he didn’t say he killed her but snatched her. So it would appear that this is not where the knowledge of supposed murder is coming from...

Also suggests that the film he showed in a bar 3 years ago was indeed footage of the crime against the 72 year old woman and it was this that led to his conviction.

This is is UK tabloid - obviously use your own judgement to unpick the integrity of it.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....adeleine-mccann-news-suspect-christian-b/amp/

It occurs to me, that since the tip from the bar friend did pan out in the case of the rape, that puts more reliability on this witness actually having heard a true confession about Maddie.

Possibly it's significant that he confessed only to snatching her, did he potentially hand her over to someone else? It could be police want to leverage a confession from this suspect, if there's a possibility he didn't himself commit murder, he might point to someone else who did. After all, there's no evidence he killed anyone else in his long career of crimes. Just me speculating.

 

[mrjitty]

I have some theories according this statement:
1. It's logic. Simple as that. The girl has been missing for so long that it is highly unlikely to find her alive. Why waste the time, energy and money in investigating her whereabouts when she is dead? It's easier to find a dead body then a living and moving person.
2. According to German law, anyone who has been missing for more than 10 years can be declared dead. If there is a clear sign that the missing person is in some danger that is threatening his life, he can be declared dead one year later. It might be that.
3. We do not know what he said when he was drunk. Maybe he confessed to have killed her. Maybe he implied it. Maybe they think if he raped her the way he did the poor old woman that Maddie had no chance to survive.
4. They took a look on the evidence collected by British and Portuguese police and came to different conclusions than them. Especially the cadaver dogs, as the results of cadaver dogs are accepted as evidence in court in Germany.

Agreed - there are more than enough forensics and circumstantial evidence to assume she is dead.

 

[Deleted member 268067]

It occurs to me, that since the tip from the bar friend did pan out in the case of the rape, that puts more reliability on this witness actually having heard a true confession about Maddie.

Possibly it's significant that he confessed only to snatching her, did he potentially hand her over to someone else? It could be police want to leverage a confession from this suspect, if there's a possibility he didn't himself commit murder, he might point to someone else who did. After all, there's no evidence he killed anyone else in his long career of crimes. Just me speculating.

Exactly. It’s not like he was backwards in coming forwards - why wouldn’t he disclose everything? He certainly wanted to make a real impression hence showing him the video.

 

[Deleted member 268067]

Exactly. It’s not like he was backwards in coming forwards - why wouldn’t he disclose everything? He certainly wanted to make a real impression hence showing him the video.

Also notable that whilst the crime against the 72 year old woman was horrific, he didn’t kill her. Like you say, no evidence of form for murder. Yet.

 

[scapa]

It has similarities with the case on the Isle of Bute recently. The killer entered the property looking for drugs and snatched the little girl.

So AC claimed, at least. Whether it's true or a convenient deflection and self-preservation we'll likely never know. This new suspect seems to have had form for sexual abuse of minors and elders as well as burglary and robbery. Seems like he regarded the presence of a relatively helpless victim in a home as a bonus rather than deterrent.

 

[asyousay]

I am still waiting for some concrete proof as since when is being in a pub bragging and drinking and wanting a attention a crime.

I know from following cases on this forum loads of killers confess to crimes they did not commit because they like to play games and love the attention it gives them. Him saying he snatched her doesn’t mean anything unless they actually have proof. Considering the crime scene was botched and no body I can not see how they will have much to go on.

IMO

 

[Mercsw]

As mentioned on the other thread. If you are a rapist who attacks pensioners and indulges in violence and filming, why would you be adept at kidnapping kids and leaving no evidence?

there’s a reason we study the crime signatures, trends, traits and victim choice.

explain how this person can even be linked other than “he may be in the country and have a phone call at that vague time”

 

[CoverMeCagney]

@mrjitty with your background (law) and location (Germany, usually!!) do you feel confident the German police will deal with this in the efficient way they are expected to? I am optimistic they're involved as they are less likely to be biased or jaded by the case and more likely to have intel on this particular suspect.

 

[Satchie]

If Goncalo Amaral is saying they have the wrong man, why is he saying that, and who does he believe is now the culprit?

I think his judgement on this case would be clouded by his past history with it, and doubt he could contribute anything positive at this stage. It's important for early players in a cold case to step back and let new people take it on with fresh eyes.

 

[Deleted member 268067]

Agreed - there are more than enough forensics and circumstantial evidence to assume she is dead.

I agree, but why are they sure of the method. A lot of articles claiming German police believe they have determined HOW she died.

 

[Kikixxxx]

I think his judgement on this case would be clouded by his past history with it, and doubt he could contribute anything positive at this stage. It's important for early players in a cold case to step back and let new people take it on with fresh eyes.

Well said