IMHO, the perp is in his mid-late 30s. Possibly early 40s. Just a hunch.
Lets sort that our a little:
- Manorville has some sadistic aspects, LISK doesn't has.
- true, SKs have changed MO in the past, it is not uncommon. But in all cases I know, it was escalation and honing. Never de-escalating. The only situation, I know, when the kill number goes up and the work becomes sloppier, less elaborate is, when psychopaths enter the spiraling phase. So, if anyone of the many arguing, SKs changed MOs like in this case, would prvide at least one example of an SK who went down in violence, instead of up, it would may help to make this a bit clearer. I know not one, but then, I haven't met all of them.
- Manoville is around for many years. The first body, or rather parts of it, appeared in 2000 with an already fully developed signature. Since other body parts of the same victim popped up in 2011 in LI, we know, he has kept them (because I doubt, those parts were there all the time, they would have been decomposed beyond recognition). So well, we know, he had already in 2000 means of conservation, which makes him highly organized and driven only by his own urges.
- LISK on the other hand has no really clear signature. Basically, he is just Strangler 101 and the only noticeable thing is, no evidence for blunt force trauma, no other torture marks as far as we know and the burlap wrap. All together, in my opinion, that puts him in the medium degree of organization.
- Both nevertheless have some things in common:
- Their significant victims are the females. With them, they put some effort in the killing and disposal.
- Male victims appear to be just discarded. In the years Manorville was active there, also two males popped up, both not dismembered. And we have still the unidentified Asian in a dress, who died from blunt force trauma. Since Manorville hunted for street corner prostitutes, he was the one, who had to pick in not to well lit areas. Which makes the mistake to pick up a crossdressing male prostitute understandable. LISK wouldn't come into that trouble, because his victims were Craigslist escorts. Ads with pictures, well lit, it would take some extremely good work for a transvestite to look there really entirely female. And since LISK in my opinion showed some hints on being a stalker type, he would have had more time to observe. So my guess is, the Asian goes on Manorville's account and that guy was really angry when he found out.
So bottom line: We look at two
- Manorville, probably now in his early fifties rather than in his late forties. Still somewhat fit, but way too intelligent to carry a body around for 300 ft into the brushes if he can avoid it or use technical help.
- LISK, who is really fit, I said so early last year already. He is in the end 20s, early 30s now (the 25-35 bracket)
And there is some dynamic between those two going on, but I doubt, it's cooperation or friendship in any form. When LISK got all the media attention, the parts, Manorville spread over LI suddenly popped up. They haven't been there all the time. If a part of Jane dow would have been out there on the beach for 11 years, there would have been not much that could have been found. In fact, I heard too many details, from remaining intact DNA to color of the toenails and scars, to believe for a moment, decomposition of those body parts was too advanced at all.
So, what happened? Did Manorville spread some parts of his private collection at the beach to get his share of the fame? In fact, that wouldn't be the first time, such a behavior happens. With unsubs, that are somewhat compatible, it can take the form of some friendly communication (see Alcala and the Hillside Stranglers), but most likely and especially, if the extreme form of a staging dismemberer is involved, such competitions end usually with the abrupt end of the "career" of the competitor (See London Torso II and Jack the Ripper for an example).
So one more bottom line: There were two of them, at least till early 2011 ...
The question is, are there still two? This would mean, Manorville is back from hibernation and LISK has found another place for the bodies. Or is there now only one left? Then my bet would be, the old guy made the race because he is cleverer and a thousand times more brutal and savage than this newbie could even imagine. We will see when the next female bodies pop up.
