GUILTY NH - AH, 14, North Conway, 9 October 2013 - #11

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Sorry if I offended, but when I said "ignorance" I was referring strictly to my own lack of knowledge! So please don't take offence, it was a self reference!

I watched some of the video of news conferences yesterday, her mom's interviews and it seems more and more (subject to change without notice) that Abigail left willingly. The appeals to call, to come home, to let her know if she is okay, that things can be made right, all those sorts of comments suggest to me that the letter must have stated something to that effect. I don't think a 15 yr old can think it all through and it has gone awry. Maybe she is afraid to come home due to media attention.....both parents have made that point. It just seems that a lot of the video suggests Abby has some freedom of action, or at least indicated that or perhaps did at first.

Again, all speculation. When the news conferences ask people to look at their neighbours, check out new people and watch for Abby, it suggests to me she is local and that someone wanted to integrate the "new" Abby somehow.

Regardless of which way my thoughts go, my heart aches for the family. Not knowing, and hoping against hope that somehow they can see her and make right whatever might be troubling to her.
 
newguy123 said:
Sorry if I offended, but when I said "ignorance" I was referring strictly to my own lack of knowledge! So please don't take offence, it was a self reference!

I watched some of the video of news conferences yesterday, her mom's interviews and it seems more and more (subject to change without notice) that Abigail left willingly. The appeals to call, to come home, to let her know if she is okay, that things can be made right, all those sorts of comments suggest to me that the letter must have stated something to that effect. I don't think a 15 yr old can think it all through and it has gone awry. Maybe she is afraid to come home due to media attention.....both parents have made that point. It just seems that a lot of the video suggests Abby has some freedom of action, or at least indicated that or perhaps did at first.

Again, all speculation. When the news conferences ask people to look at their neighbours, check out new people and watch for Abby, it suggests to me she is local and that someone wanted to integrate the "new" Abby somehow.

Regardless of which way my thoughts go, my heart aches for the family. Not knowing, and hoping against hope that somehow they can see her and make right whatever might be troubling to her.
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I know you're coming to the case late but a couple of posts from Abby's mom might change your conclusions. These are some of the most recent public communications from her mom.

Message from Abby's mom addressing the runaway theory

Post about updated Reward
 
Now viewing those statements through the prism you suggest makes me waffle on what I just posted!
 
No offense taken at all, newguy. The information provided through LE, MSM and the bringabbyhome page is out there for all to see and it's stagnant. The facts as we know them aren't enough to find her. There must be others who know more. There must be others who know where she is. Ignorance is not bliss.

It's mind-boggling that she's vanished, IMO.
 
MamaJoJo said:
No offense taken at all, newguy. The information provided through LE, MSM and the bringabbyhome page is out there for all to see and it's stagnant. The facts as we know them aren't enough to find her. There must be others who know more. There must be others who know where she is. Ignorance is not bliss.

It's mind-boggling that she's vanished, IMO.
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I think the runaway theory stems from LE early on when they stated she could have left willingly or with someone helping her. I have never felt from day one that she left willingly, not with her birthday coming up, she had a boyfriend whom she had just text and no young girl is going to ditch her phone or social media in this day and age. What I have read about Abby it does not seem that she would cut off all communication with her family and friends. I feel that she might have met up with someone she knew and trusted and I feel this is the key in finding her. I would be looking into her friends if I were LE. Are any of them acting differently, have any of them gotten into any trouble, what are her friends up to these days? I think one of them hold the key to all of this in my opinion and maybe the LE should re interview them.
 
Months later, i still question why the large LE presence was brought in from day 1. There has to be something we're not privy to.
 
I have wondered even if she could come home, what courage it would take at this point to do so and face the scrutiny of the media and endless questions from friends etc. From the way her mother has phrased things in interviews it sounds at times as though Abby was at least perceived to have some freedom of action. And when LE says to look at your neighbours, look for new faces etc. it makes me think she is local.
I read early on tracking dogs were used on the route she supposedly took home, and that the dogs led LE to the house. It was originally thought she went home, and then left, whether willingly or not. Then it was announced that they didn't believe she actually got home. I don't know the route but if the dogs were following a scent trail and it took them to her home, and she hadn't gone that way, it seems strange that it would lead them right to her door. If she hadn't gone that way and gone elsewhere, the scent should have led them in that direction. I can see the dogs losing the scent, but to follow a trail that didn't exist right to her door? But I don't know the finer points of police dogs and how they work but it seemed odd to me.
Some have questioned the police cordoning off the house, but I see that as the logical place to start, and they would naturally want to examine it with as little contamination as possible. I still want to know why the backpack/shoulder bag has rec'd so little attention.
 
I still have seen absolutely no evidence of foul play so far. For me that is a problem that prevents me from coming down on a foul play side of any scenario. I can see where what began as a runaway could have become some sort of other situation but I have no actual evidence of even that possibility so it would be only unsupported guess work at this point.

The only evidence we have seen reported to this point supports a runaway scenario. That may seem tough to swallow for some but it is what it is.

That poor letter has been attacked by so many and the findings that it was authentic have been attacked (as if the people whose job it is to look at such evidence can't do their jobs correctly) all to try to somehow finagle it around to somehow support a foul play scenario.

We do not know what the letter said but I think from the way Abby's parents worded their responses early on that it is safe to conclude that the letter's contents supported a runaway scenario. If it had been a ransom demand or other a letter from a killer saying 'I killed your daughter' the response from the parents would likely have been worded much different than it was.

I agree with some of the other posting members in thinking there is evidence that we are not privy too. The back pack appears to be something not being sought along with her other belongings. I do not know if that is because it was found or if that is because it is just not distinctive enough to be included in the official list of what is being sought.

We do not know if any evidence of contact between Abby and any other love interest was found, either of online contact or love notes or texts etc.
There might have been an electronic trail that is quietly being followed but we are not privy to it if that is so.

Don't get me wrong, I do not say foul play is not possible in this case. I just say I have not seen evidence of that yet.

I have read too many runaway cases to think it strange for Abby to not have returned yet. I have however almost always seen where people say that the missing person would not just run away and people almost always say there is no history of the missing person having run away in the past. People usually say 'she (or he) would not leave without taking stuff with them. People usually say she/he would not stay gone so long if it was not a case of foul play.

People say those things in almost all missing person cases so it really has proven to have no real bearing on the final outcome of the case.
Most are still voluntarily missing cases and a very few are foul play. Since those things people say in almost all cases has proven not to be relevant most of the time I have learned to tune those things out and look at what evidence is left.

1. In this case we have a missing person that almost always rode the bus home (according to MSM who interviewed her mother) but who for some reason, unknown to us, chose to walk home that day. The route taken was her usual route home for those times but it was said in MSM report that she had only walked a few times in the past so this walking was different and that is a flag for me. . . not absolute proof of runaway but just a flag. . . .and it is something to be paid attention to until it can be explained away by evidence.

2. In this case there is a letter written by Abby and sent to her mother. It is evidence that at least on the surface supports a runaway beginning to this case and nothing has come forth in MSM reports to prove differently.

3. Phone ping was learned of.

That is all the evidence we have seen reported in MSM that pertains to her disappearance that day.

We have seen statements by LE in this case that could be taken as foul play or runaway and we have seen statements that may be pure supposition or that may be based on evidence we have not seen. I tend to tune those out until I actually see more evidence because I have seen where statements were made in other runaway cases that LE believed foul play had taken place and even where they went so far as to interview a person on death row not long before his execution because they thought he might have murdered the missing person and then later LE found the missing person working in a SAMs store. I have no idea what evidence lead them to make that mistake but it was wrong so I am careful what unsupported statements I take as gospel in these cases.

I do not know if Abby is with someone or not. I think it likely but I also know that someone her age and appearance could earn cash money in many jobs and stay under the radar. Some low paying jobs are cash paying jobs and some of those cash paying jobs are not reported to anyone and it seems to suit both employee and employer as each often has reasons to want to keep the transaction under the radar (as it avoids a paper trail and taxes etc.) So although I think Abby is likely with someone (whether willing or unwilling at this point) I must admit that she could be on her own and earning a living.

The snail mail use does make me think that an older mind was at work in some part of this case and that, along with recent reports of people Abby's age having run away to be with older men, makes me think it likely that she is with someone but it is just an opinion. No one has confirmed to have seen this 'other person' and we have heard of no evidence to prove he/she actually exists.

I hope LE continues to look at foul play and runaway both (or either) according to where the evidence takes them. We (the public) want no stone left unturned (or so I assume.)
 
Very interesting post! I have wondered, based on her father's letter about assuming she did run away, what did she run from. If she was running from something, would everyone she ran from telling her they love and miss her, actually be the trigger to come back? Or work in the opposite way...."why would I come back to this, that is what I ran from". However, if it were one of my kids I'd probably be pleading and saying "just come home and we'll work it out".
Another thing....if I wanted to disappear I would not have the first clue as to how to do it or where to go or anything of the sort. How does a 15 yr old know how to do it? I don't suppose anyone reported missing ID at the time....someone who she might be passed off for?
 
newguy123 said:
. . . if I wanted to disappear I would not have the first clue as to how to do it or where to go or anything of the sort. How does a 15 yr old know how to do it? I don't suppose anyone reported missing ID at the time....someone who she might be passed off for?
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Good questions and thoughts. I had a young relative who left home voluntarily once. (Young relative is fine now and raising his own family.)
He had heard stories from his 'friends' about how easy it would be to find work and get a place to stay and being angry at his parents he took off to make his way in the world without his parents holding him back. He found out it was not nearly so easy as he had thought but he did eventually find cash paying jobs to work at and stayed under the radar until he chose to surface again on his own years later.

Unconfirmed sightings of Abby along the road near where she disappeared could suggest she hitch hiked out of the area and at any point along the way (if she hitched a long way off) she could have come to a tavern or food establishment or other place that might have been willing to hire someone for cash. And those are just some of the possibilities. ID is not always required in such cash situations. (I am trying to avoid mentioning the possibility of any sex trade to earn money because there are other ways to earn money and I am hoping for the best.) Edited to add: I am not saying she hitched out but I am only pointing out it is one possibility. I tend to think she had a planned meet up with someone but have no evidence yet to prove it.

As to ID and other paperwork. . . she is reported to have taken her purse with her and we have no idea what might have been in it or what may have been in her backpack. I have wondered if the P.O. box address that was used in place of her home mailing address for the letter she sent to her mother was on some small magazine or other ID document.
 
I still cannot understand LE with the letter. Why not release where it came from what city what state? What harm could that do at this point in time? It has been months since her mom has heard from her that we know of so my point would be we do not need to know what was in the letter but why not release where it came from? Don't you think that could be helpful at this point and might jog someones memory that they could have possibly seen her.
 
When LE said to watch your neighbourhood looking for new faces it suggested me to that they half expected her to re-surface under an alias.
I remember reading someone posting an open letter to her that if she either wouldn't or couldn't come home they hope she is warm, comfortable and at peace. I wish if she were, she would at least let people know.
 
Jade127402 said:
My question at this point is why the LE will not release where the letter Zenya received was postmarked from at this point? Don't you think it might help if we knew where the letter came from in finding her possibly? We don't need to know what was in the letter but if they released where the letter was sent from it might do more good than bad at this point. We do not need to know the contents of the letter but it might make one of her friends stop and say so and so is from that area? Just trying to think of things to help this case in finding her??
Click to expand...

Would it help?
What if the letter was mailed from North Conway? Does this mean that AH was in NH until at least oct 22 or 23rd? Did she know how many people were looking for her? Could she still be there somewhere in someone's house? Did someone force her to write the letter? Was the letter really written by her? Did she mail it or did someone else mail it? I was thinking that AH was younger than driving age so she did not have any ID with her like a driver's license which would list her home address on it. Could this be why the letter was mailed to a P.O. Box which was searched for online Or did AH mail the letter to the P.O. Box thinking her mom would know that it was definitely from her since not too many people mailed mail to that address. ( I assume that since her mother didn't check it often not too many people used that address so that's my opinion and not a fact.)

If it was mailed from some other city in some other state, would AH be there or was it mailed as she was being driven somewhere else? BUT maybe someone would say "so and so is from there or was going there" so that could happen I guess. I wish there was news. I hope that she is out there somewhere and that she gets to come home to all the people that love her and miss her. Please be safe Abby!
 
TheNightOwl said:
Would it help?
What if the letter was mailed from North Conway? Does this mean that AH was in NH until at least oct 22 or 23rd? Did she know how many people were looking for her? Could she still be there somewhere in someone's house? Did someone force her to write the letter? Was the letter really written by her? Did she mail it or did someone else mail it? I was thinking that AH was younger than driving age so she did not have any ID with her like a driver's license which would list her home address on it. Could this be why the letter was mailed to a P.O. Box which was searched for online Or did AH mail the letter to the P.O. Box thinking her mom would know that it was definitely from her since not too many people mailed mail to that address. ( I assume that since her mother didn't check it often not too many people used that address so that's my opinion and not a fact.)

If it was mailed from some other city in some other state, would AH be there or was it mailed as she was being driven somewhere else? BUT maybe someone would say "so and so is from there or was going there" so that could happen I guess. I wish there was news. I hope that she is out there somewhere and that she gets to come home to all the people that love her and miss her. Please be safe Abby!
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Not too sure if it would help but it just might. There might be someone out there that could have thought they saw her and didn't want to call because maybe they want to be 100 percent sure. That is my point on releasing where the letter was mailed from.
 
I would think anything which helps bring her home is a good thing. If releasing the info. about the letter would help I'd like to think the family and LE would do so...not sure what keeping it back does do.
 
Me either, I can see not releasing the contents but seriously don't understand why they did not at this point release the state the letter came from because I believe it could help.
 
The only thing I could think of was if the postmark gave them an indication of someone to watch and they don't want to tip their hand. I'm sure as frustrated as we are, it must be worse for LE who must balance providing info without giving out anything which could scare off suspicious persons.
 
newguy123 said:
The only thing I could think of was if the postmark gave them an indication of someone to watch and they don't want to tip their hand. I'm sure as frustrated as we are, it must be worse for LE who must balance providing info without giving out anything which could scare off suspicious persons.
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Jmo, with a minor missing, I don't think LE would wait around for a suspect to make a mistake, etc...if they had an idea of who or where, I think this would be a SWAT situation...
 
Can they do that on mere suspicion? But for all we know the post mark was used to purposely confuse by getting people to search in the wrong area.
 
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