GUILTY NH - AH, 14, North Conway, 9 October 2013 - # 3

[Mom24]

I agree, I think its so important in these cases to go back to Occam's razor and re-assess what is going on at the most basic level.

The second part you metioned, I believe she met with foul play...

Now, assuming that, which I am going to assume for the sake of this post, then where she set off to on her walk from school that day could be either a)home or b)to meet up with someone.

option a) if she was on her way home then i am of the opinion that she was abducted by either a stranger or someone she knew who had been watching her and knew her routine. i would think if she was abducted on the main road that people allegedly saw her walking on the main road with some possible sightings up to 3:30 pm, someone would have seen or rememebered a girl getting into a car w/someone and reported it. if this happened, i would think it would be someone she knew if she was comfortable enough to get into the car with them. it's also possible she was abducted in a more secluded place by someone who was also watching her and could have been a stranger (kind of like the Molly Bish case..i believe that was her name and that was in New England as well).

option b) if was on her way to meet up with someone, one would think there would be text messages or private facebook messages, phone calls, etc, if there was a plan to meet up somewhere after school. If she was going to meet with someone, i think she was hiding this fact from people, but why? Maybe she only communicated verbally with whoever she was meeting up with so there wouldn't be a trace of their "relationship" or whatever..if that was the case, it leads me back to someone at school...maybe an older kid with a vehicle or god forbid a teacher. that would be a good reason to want to keep any meet up secret. also, the fact that she has a boyfriend...she might not have wanted him to inadvertently see any texts or phone calls from this person so she only communicated with this person verbally/face to face.

ugh im confusing myself, and i prob confused everyone else with this post, i think i drank too much coffee this morning.

You know, someone earlier brought up an interesting point. What if the person she met wasn't a male? We keep focusing on male abductors, but let's assume it was female, a friend or a group of friends. They text her to meet at Settler's Green or behind Walmart, they're heading out for an ice cream or whatever. She meets them and then....

 

[Bodhi]

We don't. We don't even know if she was on the team this season. I think it's been established that she was running track in the Spring and I've seen references to cross-country on her FB page from last Fall.

All we really know in AH's case is that she left school at 2:29pm, was seen turning onto the dirt path from Eagle's Way, texted until 2:53pm, her phone pinged West of Cranmore at 3:07pm and her mother reported her missing at 7:17pm. Oh, and we know what she was wearing. Most everything else has been speculated.

Great synopsis, MamaJoJo. So many days have passed, and those are the only facts we know.

It doesn't appear to me that any possible causes of Abigail's disappearance have been completely eliminated: planned abduction by stranger; planned abduction by someone she was acquainted with; abduction by stranger or acquaintance who saw a target of opportunity; accident/injury; runaway....Some seem less likely, of course, like running away. But we don't know enough facts to say definitively. I sure hope the LE investigation knows a lot more than we do and is closing in on finding Abigail!

 

[Assist1]

Sorry for my ignorance...

but what is/are reasons that a vehicle needs a Vehicle Safety Inspection Sticker... And placed in full sight?

I am thinking of a commercial/government vehicle...


But ... :dunno:

http://www.vehicletest.state.ma.us/motorist_basicinfo.html

There is a Safety Inspection and Full inspection-alternates yearly. Some older vehicles are exempt due to emissions standards etc.. The link has some key topics/info.

Basically revenue generation for the state and you MUST have the inspection sticker or it is a moving violation/points against insurance/fines etc..

 

[Rivernh]

In this area there are two running teams in HS, XCountry, which starts actually in the summer and Track which will be starting in about three weeks. (prior coach here so I'm up on this stuff!). Even if she were in XCountry, it's unlikely that by Oct 9th she would have still been running on the team, which is why she may no longer be on the roster. With XCountry you have two teams, JV and Varsity. A runner can only make Varsity if they run a 7 minute mile (at least that's our cutoff). JV XCountry ends two weeks earlier than Varsity XCountry. So Varsity still has one week to go, but JV ended a week ago. And she would only have run states, last week, if she qualified for it and if she didn't, she can't run. So she may have ended that monday before she went missing. Also, there's been talk that she could have gone out running, and that's unlikely because of the footwear issue. These kids make sure they don't injure themselves and running in the wrong shoes aren't only painful, they can end a person's ability to run. At her age, bones are still growing and you have to have the proper footwear so she wouldn't run in her boots, especially not for long distances. I've had kids show up Keds and turn them away, they'll get injured if they run on uneven terrain and there's no support or cushion.

I posted in a previous thread. I'm a mom in NH with a track/cross country runner, so I knew where to look and found the Kennett roster. The JV state meet was this past Friday, so JV was still going on at the time of her disappearance anyway. Abby was not on the roster for cross country. The roster indicates who is on the team, all members are listed, both JV and varsity. It's pretty much been my observation in the past that the roster doesn't change once it's sent (even if a kid gets injured, my son was on the roster alll season the year he fractured his ankle and didn't run) I also looked at race results for Kennett this year, and her name was not listed in any of the early results either. I also theorized that she was carrying her running shoes in that big bag she was carrying, slipped off her boots, her sweater, put on the running shoes, stashed the bag and went for a run. This is of course, only a theory--I really wish we would hear more about that bag.

 

[Bodhi]

You know, someone earlier brought up an interesting point. What if the person she met wasn't a male? We keep focusing on male abductors, but let's assume it was female, a friend or a group of friends. They text her to meet at Settler's Green or behind Walmart, they're heading out for an ice cream or whatever. She meets them and then....

I keep coming back to this scenario too, Mom24. There have been several cases in recent years where girls killed another girl or a girl was the instigator in the murder of another girl.

I keep thinking of Skylar Neese...One of the girls who apparently lured her out at night, took her into the woods, killed her, and left her body there continued to be quite close to Skylar's family after she "disappeared."

LE would focus on possible male perpetrators first, because that would be most likely. But I can't shake the idea that a girl or girls are involved in Abigail's disappearance.

 

[Assist1]

I have read many questions on the Book Bag. In the FBI Missing Poster she is described by clothing only/not what she was carrying. The photo of her at school is INSIDE the school and it has not been established if she actually left with it. It COULD have been in her locker or left in school.
They later released a plea for help finding the cell phone-also shown in the photo. Due to the texts and pings, it appears the phone left the school (maybe not with AH). This is not known.

The focus on the phone would assist the investigation as it can help locate her, clues/information etc.

The Bag, if not recovered already, is a key piece of evidence that would reveal clues later on. Depending where it was found, who had it, how it got there etc. If a home or business was visited and the bag was observed, the person(s) in possession would have allot of explaining to do.

Drill down on each piece of information known as fact so far as it also reveals possibilities/"flip side" explanations/theories to other unknown facts/information.

http://www.fbi.gov/wanted/kidnap/abigail-hernandez

This could also be where conflicting information is coming from regarding clothing. The video shows and the FBI poster states what the last piece of factual evidence shows-THE PHOTO.

When interviewing friends, people on the bus, they might have stated they saw what appeared to be AH but she was wearing a "Grey sweatshirt" as they recall. They may not be able to disprove that piece as maybe she did own a grey sweatshirt and it can't be located-or borrowed from a boyfriend/friend etc and she could have had it in her bag.

There is no photo that they have released showing what she was wearing walking down the road or if she was actually walking down the road. Many times witness reports are not accurate and conflict with factual information.

 

[Mollyandme]

You know, someone earlier brought up an interesting point. What if the person she met wasn't a male? We keep focusing on male abductors, but let's assume it was female, a friend or a group of friends. They text her to meet at Settler's Green or behind Walmart, they're heading out for an ice cream or whatever. She meets them and then....

i agree this is also a possibility. girls can be quite mean and there are cases where this has happened. i remember seeing a lifetime movie (tiffani amber-thiessen aka Kelly Kapowski from saved by the bell) starred in it and it was based on a true story. i would think one of the girls would have needed a vehicle for this to work or she would have been found.

we also have that case in missouri (i am forgetting the little girls name) but she was murdered by Alyssa Bustamante (i think that was the killers name) who was a teenager at the time and hid her in woods that were searched multiple times before the teen confessed and led them to the little girls body which was in the area already searched..

so yes this is def also a possibility and there are definitely cases that back that up

 

[Bodhi]

I have read many questions on the Book Bag. In the FBI Missing Poster she is described by clothing only/not what she was carrying. The photo of her at school is INSIDE the school and it has not been established if she actually left with it. It COULD have been in her locker or left in school.
They later released a plea for help finding the cell phone-also shown in the photo. Due to the texts and pings, it appears the phone left the school (maybe not with AH). This is not known.

The focus on the phone would assist the investigation as it can help locate her, clues/information etc.

The Bag, if not recovered already, is a key piece of evidence that would reveal clues later on. Depending where it was found, who had it, how it got there etc. If a home or business was visited and the bag was observed, the person(s) in possession would have allot of explaining to do.

Drill down on each piece of information known as fact so far as it also reveals possibilities/"flip side" explanations/theories to other unknown facts/information.

http://www.fbi.gov/wanted/kidnap/abigail-hernandez

This could also be where conflicting information is coming from regarding clothing. The video shows and the FBI poster states what the last piece of factual evidence shows-THE PHOTO.

When interviewing friends, people on the bus, they might have stated they saw what appeared to be AH but she was wearing a "Grey sweatshirt" as they recall. They may not be able to disprove that piece as maybe she did own a grey sweatshirt and it can't be located-or borrowed from a boyfriend/friend etc and she could have had it in her bag.

There is no photo that they have released showing what she was wearing walking down the road or if she was actually walking down the road. Many times witness reports are not accurate and conflict with factual information.

I like your analysis of the information about what Abby was wearing and may have been carrying, Assist1.

And thanks for the reminder that witness reports are often inaccurate. A witness may have a vivid recollection of seeing someone wearing X and doing Y on day Z, but it may not be accurate. It could have been the day before, a different person who looked similar, and so on.

Couple that with so many girls looking like Abby (long dark hair, slim) and dressing the same way, even someone who knows Abby may think that they see her walking when it wasn't her.

As far as an abduction from a main road, people are lost in their own thoughts while they are driving. They pay attention to other cars but it is not stored in their memory. An abduction could happen very quickly and not look like anything out of the ordinary to a passing motorist.

 

[Mom24]

i agree this is also a possibility. girls can be quite mean and there are cases where this has happened. i remember seeing a lifetime movie (tiffani amber-thiessen aka Kelly Kapowski from saved by the bell) starred in it and it was based on a true story. i would think one of the girls would have needed a vehicle for this to work or she would have been found.

we also have that case in missouri (i am forgetting the little girls name) but she was murdered by Alyssa Bustamante (i think that was the killers name) who was a teenager at the time and hid her in woods that were searched multiple times before the teen confessed and led them to the little girls body which was in the area already searched..

so yes this is def also a possibility and there are definitely cases that back that up

And it doesn't even have to be a purposeful murder. These are kids, children, at the age of 14. Let's just say they got some joints, thought they'd try it for the first time or some other such drug and they go to a spot in the woods, Abby has a reaction to it and dies. These are children, they're going to flip out and run and leave her there. Or they get drinking, Abby steps off a ledge and they see her dead, get scared and run. I'm still hoping she's just run away to get away and will turn up, but I do know that kids can do stupid things without any malicious intent. That's why early on I asked where the kids gather to do things like this. If they met along the way, picked her up and they all went out for "mischief" where would they go? If that's on the west side of Cranmore Mtn. where they got the last ping, it might mean something. We keep assuming someone purposely did something to her, but there is the chance that it was just a horrible mistake and children often will try to cover it up. I've had my kids lie about bad grades even when I had the report card in hand. When they think they're in trouble, they freeze.

 

[Hap]

I don't even know what to think anymore. Is it usual for the family of a missing person to say things like "we truly, truly miss you" and "let us know you are safe"? And also to ask if anyone noticed anything different.... ? I had read somewhere (and will try to find the link) that a friend reported Abby had been fighting with her Mom a lot. This could probably be said about many teens at some point.

But could she have run away? Or ... worse.

I have a nagging very bad feeling about this.

http://www.seacoastonline.com/articles/20131021-NEWS-131029989

 

[cluciano63]

In Holly Bobo's case, LE would never confirm what items had been found or were still missing, much less describe them. And she remains missing, two-plus years later.

 

[shadowinlaguna]

I'm kind of confused here. The police dept already said this was a way she had walked home before. Has this changed?

 

[Oleander]

http://www.almanac.com/weather/history/NH/North Conway/2013-10-09

It was cold that morning - probably around freezing - when she left for school, so she might well have been wearing a hoodie over her sweater, in the morning. I thought that, perhaps, she might have needed it in the afternoon, but, with a high of 63, it seems questionable.

 

[ohoh]

Read the white rabbit, post 429, click on the union leader newspaper link at the bottom. That article is dated October. 18, but I never saw that until today. The Conway Daily Sun is a sweet free newspaper put in news stands outside stores and supermarkets. I always grab one when I go to Shaw's.
Read every word and line, read between the lines. Do you notice anything different or new?
I thought I did, but of course...am not sure.

 

[Insomnia Momma]

Read the white rabbit, post 429, click on the union leader newspaper link at the bottom. That article is dated October. 18, but I never saw that until today. The Conway Daily Sun is a sweet free newspaper put in news stands outside stores and supermarkets. I always grab one when I go to Shaw's.
Read every word and line, read between the lines. Do you notice anything different or new?
I thought I did, but of course...am not sure.

Can you link the article? I can't find what you're talking about?

Thanks!

 

[Lots2Learn]

Read the white rabbit, post 429, click on the union leader newspaper link at the bottom. That article is dated October. 18, but I never saw that until today. The Conway Daily Sun is a sweet free newspaper put in news stands outside stores and supermarkets. I always grab one when I go to Shaw's.
Read every word and line, read between the lines. Do you notice anything different or new?
I thought I did, but of course...am not sure.

I am a little confused. The link I went to wasn't updated on the 18th. There were some comments from the 18th....
What am I missing ?

 

[cluciano63]

Read the white rabbit, post 429, click on the union leader newspaper link at the bottom. That article is dated October. 18, but I never saw that until today. The Conway Daily Sun is a sweet free newspaper put in news stands outside stores and supermarkets. I always grab one when I go to Shaw's.
Read every word and line, read between the lines. Do you notice anything different or new?
I thought I did, but of course...am not sure.

I don't see anything. IMO, I think if LE had any messages to send, or whatever, they would speak out, not count on a newspaper article to get it right. But JMO

 

[Dee10]

I found this interesting:

"Do we have her last location? No. Do we have a suspect in relation to her case? No. But we have a long checklist of things to do, and we have made significant progress on that checklist, and we have gathered some significant information."

http://www.unionleader.com/article/20131017/NEWS07/131019233

 

[Oleander]

http://www.conwaydailysun.com/index.php/newsx/local-news/109567-weekend-101913

Is this the article?

Do you mean this?
"If people saw Abby any time from the day before she went missing to the present..." (BBM)

Like maybe she went the same route/place the day before, when she also, allegedly, walked home?

 

[Mollyandme]

And it doesn't even have to be a purposeful murder. These are kids, children, at the age of 14. Let's just say they got some joints, thought they'd try it for the first time or some other such drug and they go to a spot in the woods, Abby has a reaction to it and dies. These are children, they're going to flip out and run and leave her there. Or they get drinking, Abby steps off a ledge and they see her dead, get scared and run. I'm still hoping she's just run away to get away and will turn up, but I do know that kids can do stupid things without any malicious intent. That's why early on I asked where the kids gather to do things like this. If they met along the way, picked her up and they all went out for "mischief" where would they go? If that's on the west side of Cranmore Mtn. where they got the last ping, it might mean something. We keep assuming someone purposely did something to her, but there is the chance that it was just a horrible mistake and children often will try to cover it up. I've had my kids lie about bad grades even when I had the report card in hand. When they think they're in trouble, they freeze.

this could be a possibility but i don't think they'd be able to keep it quiet for so long. someone would have talked by now imo