GUILTY NH - AH, 14, North Conway, 9 October 2013 - # 8

[LookingHoping]

HB, don't get me wrong, I understand where you are coming from, but where a child is involved and a family awaiting her return and answers.... statistics mean nothing to me.

Here's Oxford Dictionary:

Syllabification: (sta·tis·tics)
Pronunciation: /stəˈtistiks/

the practice or science of collecting and analyzing numerical data in large quantities, especially for the purpose of inferring proportions in a whole from those in a representative sample. http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/us/definition/american_english/statistics?q=statistics


As we know, there are very few answers in many cases, so how do they collect factual numerical data regarding whether somebody was a runaway, known abductor, stranger abduction, etc. They can only go by solved and as we all know, there are many that remain mysteries... data collection on those are a guess, building statistical probabilities upon guesses?


In the end, they are likely close, but we also know there are so many exceptions (exceptions meaning those that fall into the statistical inprobabilities, e.g. that 7%) Maybe they are off enough that the real number would be 12% with a 4% standard deviation... that means that 7% could be 16% now. Those are fairly good odds!

Regardless, research or not, I'm in this until Abby is found!

**Give me numbers any day, give me lyrics to a Streisand song and I'm lost for the longrunLMAO!**

 

[takeitfromme412]

Abby's family is definitely in my prayers..... I just returned from a trip away for the holiday hoping I would see she had been found.....

 

[Cardinal47]

If I were a rich man.....or a LEO,,,,,,,I would be interviewing every known/unknown person on the block.

Oh you betcha and also opening every single door on every single condo in that whole complex! I would LOVE to know how far they got with that one...

I totally understand and agree with your observation / opinion. I also understand that doesn't mean you are just dismissing anything or giving up to the contrary. I am not either, but I also am not dismissing a possible older male (that was mentioned once in the press) that may have expressed interest in her. I am totally up in the air :scared:, however...I do think about stats. & running away given the time and the little we know, it doesn't seem as this is a probability at this point. I appreciate the stats. & your thoughts as that is why we are here. :seeya: lease:

Statistics are important. They lead us to conclusions based on their findings.

With that said I have to say I am a fatalist and I have always believed people have a fate in this life of ours and nothing or nobody can determine everything that happens to us. It's OUR fate!

fate

1.
the development of events beyond a person's control, regarded as determined by a supernatural power.
"fate decided his course for him"
synonyms: destiny, providence, the stars, chance, luck, serendipity, fortune, kismet, karma More
"what has fate in store for me?"
the course of someone's life, or the outcome of a particular situation for someone or something, seen as beyond their control.
plural noun: fates
"he suffered the same fate as his companion"
synonyms: future, destiny, outcome, end, lot More
"my fate was in their hands"
the inescapable death of a person.
"the guards led her to her fate"
synonyms: death, demise, end; More
retribution, sentence
"a similar fate would befall other killers"
2.
Greek & Roman Mythology
the three goddesses who preside over the birth and life of humans. Each person's destiny was thought of as a thread spun, measured, and cut by the three Fates, Clotho, Lachesis, and Atropos.

"the Fates will decide"
another term for Norns.

1.
be destined to happen, turn out, or act in a particular way.
"the regime was fated to end badly"
synonyms: be predestined, be preordained, be destined, be meant, be doomed;

https://www.google.com/search?q=fat...s=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

 

[Starry Night]

Hunny Bunny.....glad I'm not you.

No offense

 

[Alyssa2013]

I don't want to be presumptuous but in my opinion Abby's disappearance has all of the indications of a stranger abduction. Abby was most likely alone while walking home from school and a stranger looking for an easy victim used her isolation to his advantage. Maybe this person found their opportunity to attack while she was distracted (it's been speculated that she was texting or had headphones in), and either of these scenarios could have left her open and vulnerable to a predator. Although it's disturbing information, it's true that the motive for most non-family abductions is sexual. I really do hope that this is not the case with Abby, but this does seem like the most likely motive in my opinion. Also, I found this snippet on a website about child abduction and I think it's very telling, "When children go missing at the hands of a stranger, the investigation process is different than that of a parental or family abduction (Masino & Sheppard, 2006). When the child goes missing, the investigators will collect any physical evidence at the scene of the crime and examine it. They will also usually set up a wire tap at the family home, canvass the neighborhood, interview the parents, review law enforcement records to check for any connections with other cases, and compile a list of local sex offenders. The investigator must work quickly and efficiently in non-family abductions because children face the most danger within the first three hours after the abduction, according to Masino and Sheppard (2006). In fact, around 88% of children who are abducted by non-family members are killed within 24 hours after being abducted (McKenna, Brown, Keppel, Weis, & Skeen, 2006). There may also be many problems locating the child and their abductor in non-family abductions, such as few leads, little evidence, and no witnesses to the abduction (Masino & Sheppard, 2006). This makes it even more difficult for a child to be found in the first 24 hours." The statistics do make Abby's case look pretty grim but I'm still hoping that she's out there somewhere just waiting for someone to find her.
Website link here: http://ripleeforensicpsych.umwblogs.org/2011/12/15/child-abduction-a-theory-of-criminal-behavior/
If you think that the non-family abductor profile might fit in this case, the website has a lot of good information about child abduction, motives, statistics, etc. that you should take a look at.

 

[takeitfromme412]

I have been thinking since day one that this could be a stranger abduction.... but part of me has also been convinced it could be someone she may have known

 

[takeitfromme412]

At this point I'm very scared for Abby. It's been too long and my gut instinct is that she is not missing because she wants to be. I feel there is someone very much responsible for her disappearance.

 

[Hap]

If I were a rich man.....or a LEO,,,,,,,I would be interviewing every known/unknown person on the block.

Trying to keep a positive note, but can't believe she would willingly miss Thanksgiving. Is there any chance at all she could have just had an accident? Fallen, tripped? I know they have searched her route but perhaps she was missed. I would prefer this theory to abduction....

and haha, I am a LEO and thought what???? when I saw your post, Starry! Those August birthdays really do make us special but seriously!!!

 

[Donna64]

I blame lack of information from the get go. If there were witnesses who really did see Abby take the power line trail, did they see anyone else take the trail? I believe, in time, someone is going to come forward with more information.

 

[majikbeans]

I don't think stranger abduction is likely in this case due to the facts, but I understand most people fear the possibility of random events--children being snatched out of their front yards, gun men entering movie theaters and school rooms. These are our worst nightmares--portrayed in movies all the time. These are real events. But they are remote. They are horrors that are unlikely, statistically. Honey Bun points out that if this kind of event occurs, it's possible nothing we ever might do will protect us. Honey Bun is right about this very remote stuff.
I have been led to the Maura Murray case, through looking a the disappearance of Abby. People thought stranger abduction was possible in that case, even though, if you look at the surface details, the coincidence of a stranger taking her off a snowy road is unlikely--once you understand the details of her "private and secret' lives--not made public by family or LE btw--you see the possibility of random abduction in the MM case is absurdly remote.
In AH's case, we know she made a decision to walk independently away from her friends, away from someone who was identified as a BF, in the direction of a remote area, a sketchy place, a place where hidden and secret activity could very well have taken place. We know her mother was unaware of this behavior. We have heard LE refer to her "private and secret" lives. The facts, other than she was walking toward risk and did not seem coerced into making that choice, are unknown to us. But, given that she was headed in that direction, stranger abduction is less likely than the possibility that the "risks" she was walking toward--the more predictable ones--were what led to her disappearance. We don't know a lot. We can, from the lack of warnings, assume that random stranger abduction is not the number one possibility--even though it is what we all think of.

 

[bettiepageturner]

I don't think stranger abduction is likely in this case due to the facts, but I understand most people fear the possibility of random events--children being snatched out of their front yards, gun men entering movie theaters and school rooms. These are our worst nightmares--portrayed in movies all the time. These are real events. But they are remote. They are horrors that are unlikely, statistically. Honey Bun points out that if this kind of event occurs, it's possible nothing we ever might do will protect us. Honey Bun is right about this very remote stuff.
I have been led to the Maura Murray case, through looking a the disappearance of Abby. People thought stranger abduction was possible in that case, even though, if you look at the surface details, the coincidence of a stranger taking her off a snowy road is unlikely--once you understand the details of her "private and secret' lives--not made public by family or LE btw--you see the possibility of random abductions are absurdly remote.
In AH's case, we know she made a decision to walk independently away from her friends, away from someone who was identified as a BF, in the direction of a remote area, a sketchy place, a place where hidden and secret activity could very well have taken place. We know her mother was unaware of this behavior. We have heard LE refer to her "private and secret" lives. The facts, other than she was walking toward risk and did not seem coerced into making that choice, are unknown to us. But, given that she was headed in that direction, stranger abduction is less likely than the possibility that the "risks" she was walking toward--the more predictable ones--were what led to her disappearance. We don't know a lot. We can, from the lack of warnings, assume that random stranger abduction is not the number one possibility--even though it is what we all think of.

bbm

Good points and reminders all around; I agree, though again, my gut says something else about Abby. Regarding the private/secret lives comment: I think that was LE's way of saying there weren't any per se, not to the point of being noteworthy enough to have contributed to her disappearance. As you said with Maura, the circumstances of her private life serve as evidence against a stranger abduction. I believe LE implied there weren't any such circumstances that were found with Abby, and unless the family is keeping it hush-hush, it seems they'd bring those circumstances to the public to increase the chances of finding her, be they depressed thoughts, plans made to run away to a specific place, mingling with unsavory characters online that have been traced to X location, etc. The protocol for locating a suicidal person or someone experiencing a manic break (random examples) all vary, after all.

As far as most people in my life are concerned, reading and posting on Websleuths is my secret internet life. When I was Abby's age I had a Livejournal my family most certainly did not know about. Beyond strange google searches, that would pretty much be the extent of it. But it's still private/secret and LE wouldn't be wrong in calling it that.

 

[Donna64]

The more one analyzes it, the more it stinks. I'm sticking with the odds. The odds are, more often then not, it is someone they know.

 

[Steelslady]

At this point I'm very scared for Abby. It's been too long and my gut instinct is that she is not missing because she wants to be. I feel there is someone very much responsible for her disappearance.

I'm going with someone she knew. The reason why I say this is because she was texting her boyfriend just before whatever it was that happened to her, and she didn't appear distressed in her texts, at least from what the papers have reported. If someone was approaching her that she didn't know and he was scaring her, like most teens, she would have said something like "there's a creep driving by" or "some creep is following me" or "help" "help me", or something to indicate she was in trouble.

 

[LORI5050]

I do believe she was abducted but what is considered to be a stranger?.. How often do we think we know someone because we have seen them before or they are a friends brother or father, a teacher, a minister, etc.. As adults we know because you recognize someone it doesn't make them safe but as a kid I thought nothing of getting a ride home from an acquaintance.. I often wonder how I managed to get through my childhood safely because I trusted people when I should have been cautious.. I really wish LE would tell us what her dreams were.. Was she meeting someone to buy something with her birthday money? I have friends who sell things on Craigs List and meet up with buyers in mall parking lots.. Lately I have heard of people being beat up and robbed doing the same thing.. Did she want to become a model or actress? How many times have we seen young woman convinced that they have what it takes and they end up dead, drugged up or put out to prostitute.. The world is a different place then when I was young and abductors are getting smarter and smarter.. What was it that took Abby away from her normal routine that day?.. When I read the letter from her Mom about dreams I couldn't help but think she went willingly with someone to make that dream come true but I think she quickly found out that it was a mistake.. Would she not want to wish her family a Happy Thanksgiving or be home with them for it? I don't think she is hiding out.. I pray who ever has her lets her go or someone who knows where she is tells.. I have been here a long time now and there are just some cases that pull at my heart and this is one of them. Lindsey Baum is another case I think of everyday..

 

[majikbeans]

LE has essentially said they won't comment on the question about whether she'd run away before because she's a minor (though mom said she didn't). They can't tell us anything because she's a minor. Her friends aren't talking because they are minors (and they should be protected in all ways). The last concrete thing we heard concerned looking out for the cell phone at the outlet shopping center (Settler's Green?). Why there? We never found out if she was seen on a camera or if it was a guess. Seems weird to guess that, though.

 

[majikbeans]

I'm going with someone she knew. The reason why I say this is because she was texting her boyfriend just before whatever it was that happened to her, and she didn't appear distressed in her texts, at least from what the papers have reported. If someone was approaching her that she didn't know and he was scaring her, like most teens, she would have said something like "there's a creep driving by" or "some creep is following me" or "help" "help me", or something to indicate she was in trouble.

How did she explain to her friends that she wasn't riding the bus? Surely she told them something. We don't know what others are saying about her situation, state of mind, etc, but she had to tell them something.

 

[geevee]

How did she explain to her friends that she wasn't riding the bus? Surely she told them something. We don't know what others are saying about her situation, state of mind, etc, but she had to tell them something.

BBM

That is one of my main questions, her Mom said she was supposed to ride the bus, her boyfriend was on the bus - what did she tell him as to why she wasn't riding the bus also?

 

[Steelslady]

How did she explain to her friends that she wasn't riding the bus? Surely she told them something. We don't know what others are saying about her situation, state of mind, etc, but she had to tell them something.

I thought that her friends already knew that she walked home normally? It was her mother who said she was supposed to take the bus home, but other kids told LE that she walked home daily.

 

[majikbeans]

If mom was unaware of a regular behavior, that's even more of an argument for a secret life. IMO

 

[bettiepageturner]

BBM

That is one of my main questions, her Mom said she was supposed to ride the bus, her boyfriend was on the bus - what did she tell him as to why she wasn't riding the bus also?

They rode different buses IIRC.