GUILTY NH - AH, 14, North Conway, 9 October 2013 - # 8

[takeitfromme412]

I had really hoped for news. But I see there is still nothing new. Just rehashing of rumors.

It's really sad that it has come to this point..... just rehashing the rumors out there....

 

[Cardinal47]

So true, Steels. Risky behavior is not such a big deal for kids! I wonder, though, what friends thought about her decision to walk home (2 miles).

Great post! Thanks.

LE said they learned a lot about her public life, a lot about her private life and they learned about her secret life. What they didn't say- that they learned a lot about her secret life.

If she was experimenting with or dependent on drugs, that info could potentially open up a whole new cast of local characters. Who would she get it from and how would she pay for it? She could have fallen in with a really bad crowd in her secret life.


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I got the impression, from what I have read, that her last thirty minutes of texting was to her boyfriend. If anyone knew her state of mind it would be him. Like i said before teen girls tell their boyfriends "everything". JC said that they were together "every day" accept that one day. Boyfriends like to know where their girlfriends are at.

I thought LE confirmed that her last text was at 2:53 pm and that it was a heart to her bf. Also that there wasn't anything unusual about the texts they exchanged.

http://www.myfoxboston.com/story/24...s-from-visitors-in-search-for-missing-nh-teen

"She left the school around 2:30 p.m., walked along Eagles Way and was last seen taking a short cut through a power line trail. For 20 minutes after she was last seen, she used her cell phone to text for 20 minutes. Investigators say those texts were routine after school messages."

http://www.unionleader.com/apps/pbc...07/131029197/0/newhampshire&template=printart

"She was last seen walking away from Kennett High School after school. Her last text message was to her boyfriend at around 2:53 p.m. that day, when she sent him a heart."

Honestly the reporters seem to get things so wrong. I have spent the last half hour trying to find something I thought JC wrote early on. Something about JC sitting on the bus and AH walking away texting him a heart. Which makes me believe the heart was not the last text sent but the last text sent when she could still see Jimmy on the bus.

I can't find it. Does anybody happen to remember that message?

 

[Crickets]

Honestly the reporters seem to get things so wrong. I have spent the last half hour trying to find something I thought JC wrote early on. Something about JC sitting on the bus and AH walking away texting him a heart. Which makes me believe the heart was not the last text sent but the last text sent when she could still see Jimmy on the bus.

I can't find it. Does anybody happen to remember that message?

I've only read in MM that the heart was the last thing that Abby texted, at 2:52 or 2:53 pm (depending on which article you read). By that time, I think all of the buses would have been gone and well on their way, since the buses seemed to be leaving around the same time she did, at about 2:30 pm.

Here's one article I found:

http://www.unionleader.com/apps/pbc...16/NEWS07/131019559/-1/news&template=printart

"He said she was texting away on her phone as she was walking toward her home," [JC] said. At 2:52 p.m., as he was riding the bus home, Hernandez texted her boyfriend a heart, [JC] said."

 

[Mom24]

It's really sad that it has come to this point..... just rehashing the rumors out there....

When it really gets downright depressing is when there isn't any more activity at all. I do remember a story years ago of a boy who disappeared on a walk home from a party and there were so many rumors flying around. His parents even went on the Sally Jesse Raphael show and spoke with a psychic (Sylvia Browne) who claimed he'd been picked up by two men in a car. Years later they found him about a quarter mile from the road. From where they found his body they surmised he'd somehow stumbled off the road and gotten disoriented. I think it happened in Massachusetts? Anyhow, I can still remember watching the show on SJR and feeling so sad when the mother said that she had been to the local PD and one of the new officers didn't even know about the missing case because it had been a few years and she felt no one was actively pursuing it any longer.
It's my way of saying I'd rather see a rehash of opinions, facts, and rumors than the heartbreak of seeing the fatalistic acceptance that AH is just gone and forgotten. But that's MOO.

 

[Mom24]

I've only read in MM that the heart was the last thing that Abby texted, at 2:52 or 2:53 pm (depending on which article you read). By that time, I think all of the buses would have been gone and well on their way, since the buses seemed to be leaving around the same time she did, at about 2:30 pm.

Here's one article I found:

http://www.unionleader.com/apps/pbc...16/NEWS07/131019559/-1/news&template=printart

"He said she was texting away on her phone as she was walking toward her home," [JC] said. At 2:52 p.m., as he was riding the bus home, Hernandez texted her boyfriend a heart, [JC] said."

Did it say anywhere when DF saw her take the right onto the dirt road? I know DF gave an interview to the Portland, ME news station that had a few more details because they spoke directly to her. I can't remember if they said she was texting or not, but DF did say in the interview that AH "looked sad", whatever that means.
Another important factoid is that in NH buses are contracted through bus companies so, unlike other states, the district doesn't own the buses and they usually share the cost of the contract with other schools in the same district and there's a lot of logistics that go into when the school day ends, when it begins and how long buses wait for the children. So if the bus leaves at 2:30, it leaves at 2:30 and they're really strict about getting those buses out on time because they're needed at another school after they do their run for the High school.
Since AH walked across the field and then through the power lines, it's unlikely JC would have been able to see her from his seat on the bus which was on the road, so he must have seen her texting with him at 2:30. AH's last text was 22 mins later, so JC would likely have been home by then. Point is, it would be interesting to know if when DF saw her take a right off Eagle way onto the dirt road if AH was still texting. What I don't get, is by the time AH sent the heart text she should have been almost home.

 

[Mom24]

Honestly the reporters seem to get things so wrong. I have spent the last half hour trying to find something I thought JC wrote early on. Something about JC sitting on the bus and AH walking away texting him a heart. Which makes me believe the heart was not the last text sent but the last text sent when she could still see Jimmy on the bus.

I can't find it. Does anybody happen to remember that message?

I remember something about some confusion over when her last msg was sent and to who, but I think it was cleared up. I think it was early on when they spoke with JC's dad and he said something about watching her walk away as he got the heart text. But if the buses leave at 2:30pm and the last text she sent was heart text to JC at 2:52pm, then he couldn't have been watching her text him the heart.

 

[Crickets]

I remember something about some confusion over when her last msg was sent and to who, but I think it was cleared up. I think it was early on when they spoke with JC's dad and he said something about watching her walk away as he got the heart text. But if the buses leave at 2:30pm and the last text she sent was heart text to JC at 2:52pm, then he couldn't have been watching her text him the heart.

I checked the bus schedules for Kennett H.S. (they're posted online by the school district), and I believe they all say that the buses leave Kennett at about 2:27 pm. According to that schedule, the bf's bus would have left the H.S. about 25 minutes before he got the heart text.

 

[Mom24]

I would think the father would of notified the police if he had Abby.

I don't think Dad has her. But here's where I'm going. If AH was headed to TN to see Dad, or perhaps travelling with Dad to TN in the past( he does reference in his letter to her that she's come to him before when she's had troubles) maybe that's how this whole thing started. What if someone she knew offered to give her a ride to her see her father? It would explain why she wasn't riding the bus home as she was supposed to. It would also explain why no one saw her fighting being dragged into an automobile. And it would further explain the last ping on her phone on the western side of cranmore mountain in such a short space of time, too short for her to have walked there.
I still maintain that ZH meant what she said when she said she believed AH willingly entered a vehicle with someone she knew and then things went bad.
Thing is, divorces are always amicable and pretty and perhaps the reason RH isn't in any press conferences is because he can't be. There may be court orders that don't allow him to have access to ZH or AH or both of them. That may have been why when the Fish and Game person made a reference to "legal issues" JY gave him such a cold stare.

 

[CatFancier]

We need some rumor control here. Unless supported by MSM or LE topics such as whether she had been abused or whether mom wasn't being truthful about previous runaway attempts are off-limits.

 

[Steleheart]

LE has essentially said they won't comment on the question about whether she'd run away before because she's a minor (though mom said she didn't). They can't tell us anything because she's a minor. Her friends aren't talking because they are minors (and they should be protected in all ways). The last concrete thing we heard concerned looking out for the cell phone at the outlet shopping center (Settler's Green?). Why there? We never found out if she was seen on a camera or if it was a guess. Seems weird to guess that, though.

Yes, they were very specific about asking businesses to check their lost and found bins for the phone. I also remember a news story early on that said LE was checking time cards at some of those business. And the DD receipt that they tracked down the person who lost it.

All this means 'to me' is that they had some leads that led to the usual place - nowhere.

 

[hwneyz]

I don't think Dad has her. But here's where I'm going. If AH was headed to TN to see Dad, or perhaps travelling with Dad to TN in the past( he does reference in his letter to her that she's come to him before when she's had troubles) maybe that's how this whole thing started. What if someone she knew offered to give her a ride to her see her father? It would explain why she wasn't riding the bus home as she was supposed to. It would also explain why no one saw her fighting being dragged into an automobile. And it would further explain the last ping on her phone on the western side of cranmore mountain in such a short space of time, too short for her to have walked there.
I still maintain that ZH meant what she said when she said she believed AH willingly entered a vehicle with someone she knew and then things went bad.
Thing is, divorces are always amicable and pretty and perhaps the reason RH isn't in any press conferences is because he can't be. There may be court orders that don't allow him to have access to ZH or AH or both of them. That may have been why when the Fish and Game person made a reference to "legal issues" JY gave him such a cold stare.

And could this also be one of the reasons why LE decided to leave dad out of most of the social media interviews? Maybe RH has suspected his daughter was planning to run to him? Maybe AH had it set up to go see her dad, perhaps with someone acquainted with herself and her dad. Maybe that person was to pick her up on the other side of the powerline trail because it would be a hush-hush situation. Maybe just that acquaintance and AH knew what AH was planning that day and not RH? And then between the trail and the route to her dad's..........something went wrong? Has her father remarried or does he have a girlfriend? I don't remember reading it anywhere. I guess there's a reason for both mom and dad (who knows her better than anyone else) to write letters to AH as if she actually ran away. Ran away + wrong person who was to transport her = bad outcome? JMO. Praying for Abby to still be out there alive and to come home safely!! Abby......please come home!lease:

 

[Assist1]

http://www.wcvb.com/news/local/volu...m=facebook&utm_campaign=wcvb+channel+5+boston

WCVB Channel 5 Boston
Options for this story
There's a new push to find a missing New Hampshire teenager who hasn't been seen in nearly two months. Please share and spread the word.

 

[Cardinal47]

I've only read in MM that the heart was the last thing that Abby texted, at 2:52 or 2:53 pm (depending on which article you read). By that time, I think all of the buses would have been gone and well on their way, since the buses seemed to be leaving around the same time she did, at about 2:30 pm.

Here's one article I found:

http://www.unionleader.com/apps/pbc...16/NEWS07/131019559/-1/news&template=printart

"He said she was texting away on her phone as she was walking toward her home," [JC] said. At 2:52 p.m., as he was riding the bus home, Hernandez texted her boyfriend a heart, [JC] said."

Thank you soooo much. That is the article I read. Evidently I got it all wrong because after reading it I could see JC on the bus and AH walking away texting a heart. That seems to be not true according to the article.

LOL Big Jim surely had a lot to say...in the beginning.

Union Leader Correspondent
CONWAY — The father of Abigail Hernandez's 14-year-old boyfriend said his son received a text message from the missing teen at 2:52 p.m. last Wednesday, the day she disappeared.
James D. Campbell said JC last saw Hernandez, 15, as the pair left Kennett High School that day, as Campbell boarded the bus and she headed for home.
"He said she was texting away on her phone as she was walking toward her home," the elder Campbell said.
At 2:52 p.m., as he was riding the bus home, Hernandez texted her boyfriend a heart, James Campbell said.
"That was the last he heard from her," James Campbell said.

 

[Cardinal47]

I don't want to be presumptuous but in my opinion Abby's disappearance has all of the indications of a stranger abduction. Abby was most likely alone while walking home from school and a stranger looking for an easy victim used her isolation to his advantage. Maybe this person found their opportunity to attack while she was distracted (it's been speculated that she was texting or had headphones in), and either of these scenarios could have left her open and vulnerable to a predator. Although it's disturbing information, it's true that the motive for most non-family abductions is sexual. I really do hope that this is not the case with Abby, but this does seem like the most likely motive in my opinion. Also, I found this snippet on a website about child abduction and I think it's very telling, "When children go missing at the hands of a stranger, the investigation process is different than that of a parental or family abduction (Masino & Sheppard, 2006). When the child goes missing, the investigators will collect any physical evidence at the scene of the crime and examine it. They will also usually set up a wire tap at the family home, canvass the neighborhood, interview the parents, review law enforcement records to check for any connections with other cases, and compile a list of local sex offenders. The investigator must work quickly and efficiently in non-family abductions because children face the most danger within the first three hours after the abduction, according to Masino and Sheppard (2006). In fact, around 88% of children who are abducted by non-family members are killed within 24 hours after being abducted (McKenna, Brown, Keppel, Weis, & Skeen, 2006). There may also be many problems locating the child and their abductor in non-family abductions, such as few leads, little evidence, and no witnesses to the abduction (Masino & Sheppard, 2006). This makes it even more difficult for a child to be found in the first 24 hours." The statistics do make Abby's case look pretty grim but I'm still hoping that she's out there somewhere just waiting for someone to find her.
Website link here: http://ripleeforensicpsych.umwblogs.org/2011/12/15/child-abduction-a-theory-of-criminal-behavior/
If you think that the non-family abductor profile might fit in this case, the website has a lot of good information about child abduction, motives, statistics, etc. that you should take a look at.

How did she explain to her friends that she wasn't riding the bus? Surely she told them something. We don't know what others are saying about her situation, state of mind, etc, but she had to tell them something.

You know I was thinking the only kids in the area of the school busses at our school are the bus riders.

I wonder if Abby planned on riding the bus and at the last minute changed her mind and why that change in plan?

 

[rizzo0904]

I don't think she ever planned in taking the bus. She was walking out of school in the opposite direction of everyone else. She cut across the field hockey fields.

 

[Steleheart]

I don't think she ever planned in taking the bus. She was walking out of school in the opposite direction of everyone else. She cut across the field hockey fields.

I agree. I don't think her friends or BF were surprised that she was walking. It seemed like just another day IMO. At her age I preferred it as well. I walked the 2 miles home when I stayed after. I often rode the bus in the AM and walked home. Other days I rode my bike.

As long as the weather was nice.

 

[Steleheart]

walking, riding, texting;

In the satellite view on Google, busses are parked in the east side lot next to the main parking lot. Student and faculty parking is on the south side of the school. The south entrance really looks like the main entrance for students and faculty but by the layout it looks to me that bus riders most likely exit from the east entrance to the bus parking area. By the direction the busses are headed on Google, the busses enter the lot from the east side of the Eagle's Way loop and exit along the west side of the school to eagle's way. If dismissal is anything like it is where I live the order is Busses, walkers, then drivers.
From the timeline, Abby begins texting at 2:23. Abby is seen exiting the school at 2:29. If she exited from the east entrance that explains why she walked across the field avoiding the bends in Eagle's way. From that exit she could have been seen by JC as he sat on the bus waiting to pull out or else as his bus was leaving from the west, saw her as she entered Eagle's way. in either case they are still texting each other. JC lives in Center Conway and Abby lives in North Conway so they would likely not have been riding the same bus anyway.
Hollye's bing map shows the route that Abby would have taken across the field, down the powerline trail, across the powerline and exiting on 302 across from the retention pond behind wallmart.
From discussions with my daughters and a friend, they tell me that walking while texting is much slower than just walking So using 2.5 MPH instead of 3 MPH walking I calculated that Abby might only have made it 1 mile by the time JC received her last text at 2:53 which seems to put her somewhere around Walmart. Even 3 MPH walking/texting would have brought her only 1.2 miles.
She didn't get very far. 14 minutes later, 3:07, her phone goes dead permanently. 14 minutes would have been another 1/2 mile or so walking, so by the way I am looking at it she would not have made it home before the phone went dead. Also, 14 minutes between the last text and the last ping would be 9 or 10 miles by car. If she went willingly and decided to dump the phone, that 14 minutes is a long time to not text and not power it down. As I understand iPhone, even if the battery dies it goes into sleep unless it is purposely powered down or destroyed.
That 14 minutes is too long to waste if she had a plan to disappear. With no money, no clothes, no phone, no electronic trail, and no detectable activity since, It would have to have been a very detailed and complete plan. The 14 minute blank just doesn't fit.
14 minutes, however would seem right for an abductor to get her out of there, park somewhere remote, get her under control, search her belongings and destroy the phone. I am sorry to make this look so bleak when even I personally would rather hold onto hope that she can just decide to come home. But in my opinion it has looked bleak from the beginning and to my observation, that explains the LE rapid response as well.

These are just my observations and opinions

https://maps.google.com/maps?q=nort...gl=us&ei=1UGAUtPvKeHasATjqILoBQ&ved=0CJwBELYD
http://www.wcsh6.com/assetpool/documents/131016071002_Picture Timeline.pdf
http://www.bing.com/maps/?v=2&cp=44...=0&sty=h&cid=49B0E16AAA81621D!113&form=LMLTCC

 

[LittleRose]

Steleheart- sadly, your theory makes sense.

As a parent, it would be my worst nightmare.

Why then, would her parents not plead with an abductor to let her go? I understand that you'd like to believe it didn't happen that way but would you go to such lengths of denial to avoid thinking about it?

The parents' letters (and police saying no threat in the community) is what made me think they found evidence through friends or journals or past actions that made them think Abby was runaway bound. Her mom's letter seems like an attempt to convince Abby how much she loves her and wants her home.

I'm puzzled.


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[Steleheart]

Steleheart- sadly, your theory makes sense.

As a parent, it would be my worst nightmare.

Why then, would her parents not plead with an abductor to let her go? I understand that you'd like to believe it didn't happen that way but would you go to such lengths of denial to avoid thinking about it?

The parents' letters (and police saying no threat in the community) is what made me think they found evidence through friends or journals or past actions that made them think Abby was runaway bound. Her mom's letter seems like an attempt to convince Abby how much she loves her and wants her home.

I'm puzzled.


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I agree but I don't think it's denial. I think it's exactly what Zenya said- hope speaking louder than fear.

Given the Chief's odd letter in an email to CDS the night before Zenya's Press conference where he was talking past tense about the investigation and then about the task that lies ahead, it had the tone of a major shift though no one talked about what that shift is. I got the impression that hope is the only thing left.

http://www.conwaydailysun.com/index...wagner-steadfast-in-our-commitment-to-abigail

 

[Steleheart]

In addition, it's my observation that ZH is not comfortable at all with public emotion, and press conferences. She was much more relaxed in her one on one interview. She has not made many public pleas and has used those few to speak directly to Abby because that's where her heart is.