GUILTY NH - AH, 14, North Conway, 9 October 2013 - # 8

[LittleRose]

I agree but I don't think it's denial. I think it's exactly what Zenya said- hope speaking louder than fear.

Given the Chief's odd letter in an email to CDS the night before Zenya's Press conference where he was talking past tense about the investigation and then about the task that lies ahead, it had the tone of a major shift though no one talked about what that shift is. I got the impression that hope is the only thing left.

http://www.conwaydailysun.com/index...wagner-steadfast-in-our-commitment-to-abigail

Again, great point Steleheart!

But is the runaway theory the only avenue of hope for Abby?

I can imagine at least one person caught up in an organized crime sex ring with the keys to her release as being amenable to persuasion of a certain type.

I can also imagine the twisted mind of a perp who may be holding her captive as being vulnerable enough in the deep recesses of his psyche to be reached by the right message, carefully crafted.


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[majikbeans]

Steleheart's math makes sense, even I of the "No-random-abduction school of thought" find the logic there both disheartening and convincing. At first I thought 14 minutes did NOT seem like enough time, but if she was stalked--
Then it makes too much sense.
Remember all the interest in the area behind the Walmart--in the early days, that area was searched repeatedly? Now what you are saying about the chief signing off--the probability must be directing him to the worst--

 

[Mom24]

Again, great point Steleheart!

But is the runaway theory the only avenue of hope for Abby?

I can imagine at least one person caught up in an organized crime sex ring with the keys to her release as being amenable to persuasion of a certain type.

I can also imagine the twisted mind of a perp who may be holding her captive as being vulnerable enough in the deep recesses of his psyche to be reached by the right message, carefully crafted.


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Well I don't know if it's an avenue of hope, where both parents have stated that in their opinion she's run away. In his letter to AH, RH wrote, "Whatever reason that may have caused you to run away"

Read more: http://www.wmur.com/news/nh-news/ab...22804630/-/rgnhc9z/-/index.html#ixzz2mEwAwRyj

And goes on to write: "you know deep in your heart that you can always come home to me, as you have in the past and we can work it out"

Read more: http://www.wmur.com/news/nh-news/ab...22804630/-/rgnhc9z/-/index.html#ixzz2mEwSQ9rg

Mom has said she doesn't believe AH ran away in her interview with Michael Rosenfield on October 28, 2013, where she says, "her daughter has never run away in the past and has always been in constant contact"
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2013/10/...nh-girl-speaks-about-daughters-disappearance/

But then later seems to shift her decision on that to the run away theory when she writes this in her letter on November 22, 2013, "I believe you are out there somewhere watching and listening to me right now. I miss you and love you so much more than you can imagine. I feel your absence every day. You belong at home with me

Read more: http://www.wcvb.com/news/local/miss...23105242/-/enm1mrz/-/index.html#ixzz2mF3Nj23v

She goes on to say in that letter that she has "hope" that AH can contact her, again saying she believes AH is in the capacity of being able to control her own surroundings. I think this is a shift from ZH's previous interview.
Unfortunately, when teens make decisions to leave home they don't always choose the best person to trust with their escape plan and an adult looking for a victim can make good use of that trust. Not to be blunt, but quite honestly if she's been gone this long she's either being kept alive by someone who has the means to do so or she's no longer alive. I think they did a really extensive search of the area so if she weren't alive, they would have found her. Again, not to be blunt, but I do know that a local FD in the Conway area has heat sensing search devices and a body within the first 12 hours would have been warm enough to find, even in dense underbrush. If they can use it for looking for people in burning buildings, I'm sure they used it when she was first called in missing that night. So it stands to reason she's alive somewhere. I still keep coming back to ZH stating clearly that she believes AH got into a car with someone she trusted. This is her mother saying this, and I have to side with that Mom instinct.

 

[Mom24]

Steleheart's math makes sense, even I of the "No-random-abduction school of thought" find the logic there both disheartening and convincing. At first I thought 14 minutes did NOT seem like enough time, but if she was stalked--
Then it makes too much sense.
Remember all the interest in the area behind the Walmart--in the early days, that area was searched repeatedly? Now what you are saying about the chief signing off--the probability must be directing him to the worst--

Was the Walmart the area where AH had taken the right turn off Eagle's way? I never really was clear where that turn off had happened.

 

[MamaJoJo]

walking, riding, texting;

In the satellite view on Google, busses are parked in the east side lot next to the main parking lot. Student and faculty parking is on the south side of the school. The south entrance really looks like the main entrance for students and faculty but by the layout it looks to me that bus riders most likely exit from the east entrance to the bus parking area. By the direction the busses are headed on Google, the busses enter the lot from the east side of the Eagle's Way loop and exit along the west side of the school to eagle's way. If dismissal is anything like it is where I live the order is Busses, walkers, then drivers.
From the timeline, Abby begins texting at 2:23. Abby is seen exiting the school at 2:29. If she exited from the east entrance that explains why she walked across the field avoiding the bends in Eagle's way. From that exit she could have been seen by JC as he sat on the bus waiting to pull out or else as his bus was leaving from the west, saw her as she entered Eagle's way. in either case they are still texting each other. JC lives in Center Conway and Abby lives in North Conway so they would likely not have been riding the same bus anyway.
Hollye's bing map shows the route that Abby would have taken across the field, down the powerline trail, across the powerline and exiting on 302 across from the retention pond behind wallmart.
From discussions with my daughters and a friend, they tell me that walking while texting is much slower than just walking So using 2.5 MPH instead of 3 MPH walking I calculated that Abby might only have made it 1 mile by the time JC received her last text at 2:53 which seems to put her somewhere around Walmart. Even 3 MPH walking/texting would have brought her only 1.2 miles.
She didn't get very far. 14 minutes later, 3:07, her phone goes dead permanently. 14 minutes would have been another 1/2 mile or so walking, so by the way I am looking at it she would not have made it home before the phone went dead. Also, 14 minutes between the last text and the last ping would be 9 or 10 miles by car. If she went willingly and decided to dump the phone, that 14 minutes is a long time to not text and not power it down. As I understand iPhone, even if the battery dies it goes into sleep unless it is purposely powered down or destroyed.
That 14 minutes is too long to waste if she had a plan to disappear. With no money, no clothes, no phone, no electronic trail, and no detectable activity since, It would have to have been a very detailed and complete plan. The 14 minute blank just doesn't fit.
14 minutes, however would seem right for an abductor to get her out of there, park somewhere remote, get her under control, search her belongings and destroy the phone. I am sorry to make this look so bleak when even I personally would rather hold onto hope that she can just decide to come home. But in my opinion it has looked bleak from the beginning and to my observation, that explains the LE rapid response as well.

These are just my observations and opinions

https://maps.google.com/maps?q=nort...gl=us&ei=1UGAUtPvKeHasATjqILoBQ&ved=0CJwBELYD
http://www.wcsh6.com/assetpool/documents/131016071002_Picture Timeline.pdf
http://www.bing.com/maps/?v=2&cp=44...=0&sty=h&cid=49B0E16AAA81621D!113&form=LMLTCC

Thank you for your assessment of the buses and their position etc. on campus, Stele. And, I'm in agreement with you about the timing of Abby's last text and the last ping being achieved because her phone (and Abby) was traveling in a car. There were a couple of statements you made, BBM, though that I have questions about...

My understanding is that both AH and JCJr live in North Conway. AH is on Village Way and JCJr is on Skimobile (about 2.5 miles North of Abby's condo). Am I mistaken?

Secondly, the last ping was on the "West side of Cranmore mountain". If traveling North, due West wouldn't be 9-10 miles away; it's at most 3.5, depending on where she sent her last text from. We have never been given North or South limits to where that ping came from. Shoot, her condo is "West" of Cranmore mountain! Also, if the car traveled West, say on the Kanc, would a distance of 9-10 miles been picked up by another tower, West of Cranmore mountain?

I'm just trying to keep the "facts" straight and figure out what the he!! happened to dear Abby. Please, if I'm mistaken, please correct me.

ETA: the first tower I could find West of Cranmore mountain is in North Woodstock, 40 miles away! So, 9-10 miles West would still be ping at the Cranmore mountain tower, IMO.

 

[LittleRose]

Well I don't know if it's an avenue of hope, where both parents have stated that in their opinion she's run away. In his letter to AH, RH wrote, "Whatever reason that may have caused you to run away"

Read more: http://www.wmur.com/news/nh-news/ab...22804630/-/rgnhc9z/-/index.html#ixzz2mEwAwRyj

And goes on to write: "you know deep in your heart that you can always come home to me, as you have in the past and we can work it out"

Read more: http://www.wmur.com/news/nh-news/ab...22804630/-/rgnhc9z/-/index.html#ixzz2mEwSQ9rg

Mom has said she doesn't believe AH ran away in her interview with Michael Rosenfield on October 28, 2013, where she says, "her daughter has never run away in the past and has always been in constant contact"
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2013/10/...nh-girl-speaks-about-daughters-disappearance/

But then later seems to shift her decision on that to the run away theory when she writes this in her letter on November 22, 2013, "I believe you are out there somewhere watching and listening to me right now. I miss you and love you so much more than you can imagine. I feel your absence every day. You belong at home with me

Read more: http://www.wcvb.com/news/local/miss...23105242/-/enm1mrz/-/index.html#ixzz2mF3Nj23v

She goes on to say in that letter that she has "hope" that AH can contact her, again saying she believes AH is in the capacity of being able to control her own surroundings. I think this is a shift from ZH's previous interview.
Unfortunately, when teens make decisions to leave home they don't always choose the best person to trust with their escape plan and an adult looking for a victim can make good use of that trust. Not to be blunt, but quite honestly if she's been gone this long she's either being kept alive by someone who has the means to do so or she's no longer alive. I think they did a really extensive search of the area so if she weren't alive, they would have found her. Again, not to be blunt, but I do know that a local FD in the Conway area has heat sensing search devices and a body within the first 12 hours would have been warm enough to find, even in dense underbrush. If they can use it for looking for people in burning buildings, I'm sure they used it when she was first called in missing that night. So it stands to reason she's alive somewhere. I still keep coming back to ZH stating clearly that she believes AH got into a car with someone she trusted. This is her mother saying this, and I have to side with that Mom instinct.

I agree. The parents started out saying, no way would she run away. At some point, they changed their tune. It made me think some info came in from Internet and/or friends, leading them to that conclusion. I guess it could be wishful thinking on their part...

At this point, I'm swaying wildly back and forth...

And I'm starting to wonder...could Abby be pregnant? Her dad's letter made me think that thought may have crossed his mind.




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[MamaJoJo]

Was the Walmart the area where AH had taken the right turn off Eagle's way? I never really was clear where that turn off had happened.

The WalMart is on the NE corner of Eastman Rd (rte 302) and North-South Road. It is suspected that AH exited through the woods onto Eastman right where the retention pond is (between N-S Rd and Mountain St). I don't have the link readily available to the awesome Hollye map, but Google maps will show you the streets.

 

[Mom24]

I agree. The parents started out saying, no way would she run away. At some point, they changed their tune. It made me think some info came in from Internet and/or friends, leading them to that conclusion. I guess it could be wishful thinking on their part...

At this point, I'm swaying wildly back and forth...

And I'm starting to wonder...could Abby be pregnant? Her dad's letter made me think that thought may have crossed his mind.




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That thought crossed my mind too. But I'm sure she would have told JCjr about it and his parents don't seem to be the type where JCjr wouldn't have been able to tell them. And although she wasn't always honest with her parents, she appears to have a solid relationship with both of them. From what we've seen of ZH she's a very stable and kind person, I can't imagine Ah being so afraid to tell her mother that she'd run on that basis.

 

[Donna64]

Things up in North Conway are so quiet it makes me think of a movie where someone knows something but they are afraid to come forward. I am hoping this isn't the case here. I am also hoping they don't live by the old rule of "don't get involved" up there .

 

[Donna64]

Thanks for responding Steel. It is too darn quiet here. It is a cold rainy day here in New Hampshire. Maybe its just a typical lazy Sunday for others also.

 

[Steleheart]

Thank you for your assessment of the buses and their position etc. on campus, Stele. And, I'm in agreement with you about the timing of Abby's last text and the last ping being achieved because her phone (and Abby) was traveling in a car. There were a couple of statements you made, BBM, though that I have questions about...

My understanding is that both AH and JCJr live in North Conway. AH is on Village Way and JCJr is on Skimobile (about 2.5 miles North of Abby's condo). Am I mistaken?

Secondly, the last ping was on the "West side of Cranmore mountain". If traveling North, due West wouldn't be 9-10 miles away; it's at most 3.5, depending on where she sent her last text from. We have never been given North or South limits to where that ping came from. Shoot, her condo is "West" of Cranmore mountain! Also, if the car traveled West, say on the Kanc, would a distance of 9-10 miles been picked up by another tower, West of Cranmore mountain?

I'm just trying to keep the "facts" straight and figure out what the he!! happened to dear Abby. Please, if I'm mistaken, please correct me.

ETA: the first tower I could find West of Cranmore mountain is in North Woodstock, 40 miles away! So, 9-10 miles West would still be ping at the Cranmore mountain tower, IMO.

BBM;
JDC has been very public in media and both he and DMC admin the MHFAH Facebook page, therefore I take the liberty to peruse their public profiles which both give Center Conway as their current city.

I say 9 or 10 miles to give a sense of time. I also say "park somewhere remote" to gain control, search her and destroy the phone. but west of Cranmore could be up Rt. 302 in Bartlet, west of the Village at Cathedral Ledge or even in the mountains west of that. There are 2 cell towers off of NS Road - one near Redstone and one on Cranmore putting Village Way right smack in the middle.

My familiarity with the White Mountain National Forest and how vast and remote parts of it can be tells me that a person can take someone very far into a remote area very quickly.

 

[Donna64]

Exactly. It wouldn't take long at all to get into Maine. It seems like Abby just vanished quickly. One minute she is at school and the next gone!

 

[Steelslady]

BBM;
JDC has been very public in media and both he and DMC admin the MHFAH Facebook page, therefore I take the liberty to peruse their public profiles which both give Center Conway as their current city.

I say 9 or 10 miles to give a sense of time. I also say "park somewhere remote" to gain control, search her and destroy the phone. but west of Cranmore could be up Rt. 302 in Bartlet, west of the Village at Cathedral Ledge or even in the mountains west of that. There are 2 cell towers off of NS Road - one near Redstone and one on Cranmore putting Village Way right smack in the middle.

My familiarity with the White Mountain National Forest and how vast and remote parts of it can be tells me that a person can take someone very far into a remote area very quickly.

For some reason, I keep thinking she is either in the Cathedral Ledge/Diana's Bath area, or that something happened to her around that area (she got picked up, abducted, etc). I can't put my finger on why this area keeps on haunting me with this case.

 

[Mom24]

I'd search it myself, but my old comp takes forever to load pages, can anyone see when the grainy school pic was taken? I know we've all assumed it was right before she left school, but I'm not sure they have ever said where the camera was in the school or when that image was taken. It would be interesting to know if it was taken as she was leaving or just at some time during the school day. If it was taken at some time during the school day, then it's interesting she was carrying her phone like she was waiting for a call or text.

 

[Steelslady]

Thanks for responding Steel. It is too darn quiet here. It is a cold rainy day here in New Hampshire. Maybe its just a typical lazy Sunday for others also.

It is a bit icky out here in the Lakes Region. Woke up this morning to some snow on the ground, yet it was warmer this morning and today than it was yesterday- it was freezing yesterday, bbbbbrrrrrrrr!!!!!!

We're hopefully going to put the Christmas lights up in a little bit- my favorite part of Christmas is the church hymns, Christmas lights, and Christmas cards. Brings out the spirit in me.

I really don't have anything to add to this case, so I've been quiet. This is the most unusual case I have ever seen, with no one talking, no media aggressively pursuing leads on their own (such as questioning what they think may be persons of interest), no clues as to who she is on a personal level- what bands she liked, hobbies/interests, not major personal things, but small stuff to give you an idea about her, know what I mean? They haven't really said much to humanize this girl.........I don't know, maybe I am just rambling again, which isn't helping matters, sorry. :blushing:

 

[Donna64]

Kids are attached to their cell phones 24/7.

 

[Donna64]

Thanks for the ramble Steel. I prefer it to the nothingness here at the moment. I totally agree with you. This case seems to of gone cold a while back. I too have sensed the lack of aggression by any one involved. Facebook and web sights are all well and good, but what about going out and asking questions?

 

[Mom24]

It is a bit icky out here in the Lakes Region. Woke up this morning to some snow on the ground, yet it was warmer this morning and today than it was yesterday- it was freezing yesterday, bbbbbrrrrrrrr!!!!!!

We're hopefully going to put the Christmas lights up in a little bit- my favorite part of Christmas is the church hymns, Christmas lights, and Christmas cards. Brings out the spirit in me.

I really don't have anything to add to this case, so I've been quiet. This is the most unusual case I have ever seen, with no one talking, no media aggressively pursuing leads on their own (such as questioning what they think may be persons of interest), no clues as to who she is on a personal level- what bands she liked, hobbies/interests, not major personal things, but small stuff to give you an idea about her, know what I mean? They haven't really said much to humanize this girl.........I don't know, maybe I am just rambling again, which isn't helping matters, sorry. :blushing:

I do remember an article where LE had told the community to speak to no one, not even about her likes and interests or hobbies. I'm sure there was reason for that at the beginning, but like you I don't know why they wouldn't humanize her a little more at this point. Like everything else about this case, it's shrouded in so much secrecy that I fear she'll never be found, and I've wondered if that was the intent anyhow. Knowing who she is might be so helpful in finding her. For example, if she's vegetarian people who frequent those food areas might be more on the lookout. If she likes antique photos, antique shops might be on the lookout for her. Because she's such an average looking teen, it would be helpful to have something about her that stands out. Even something like she has a lisp would be helpful, but other than her height, age and hair/eye color we don't know anything about her. As for what she was wearing when she disappeared, that's helpful for anyone who might have seen her that day, but by now the clothing is going to be different.

 

[Donna64]

We really don't know much about any of the players here at all.

 

[Donna64]

Oh well, I guess I'll have a piece of apple pie. Then I'll toss the rest of it out.