Found Deceased NH - Hiker Emily Sotelo, from MA, dropped off in Franconia, Lafayette trailhead, Hiking Mounts Lafayette, Haystack & Flume, 20 Nov 2022

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This has come up in a few posts this morning. I can only speak to my experience as a 40+ year hiker who has hiked 88 of the highest 100 peaks in New England including a number that are bushwhacks (i.e. no established trails) and has hiked the northern 1/3 of Vermont's Long Trail which is generally considered the most gnarly part of the LT. I have not done overnight hikes that include camping, most of my day hikes are in the 3.5-6 hour range but I have done day hikes up to 20+/- miles. I consider myself well above average as a hiker. I'm fit and I move quickly (not as quickly as I used to!!), and I am able to get out to hike about 20-25 times a year. I have only hiked in hiking boots a couple times, and it was decades ago. I prefer trail runners such as the Brooks Cascadia or the Hoka Speedgoat, as do many hikers these days. These kinds of shoes have evolved far beyond the running shoes that would be more suitable for runs on the local rec path. I would say around 40% of the hikers I see on trails similar to this the last few years are wearing trail runners, 45% hiking boots, 15% "other" (traditional running shoes, tennis shoes or sneakers, Crocs/Tevas, barefoot).

We really need to get past thinking that there is a right way and a wrong way to hike because what's right and wrong is completely dependent on the terrain one will be in and the weather one will encounter. The equipment I use would not be appropriate for most winter hiking in the mountains. In Ms. Sotelo's case, although we're starting to get more details about her attire and what she had in her pack, I'm still finding the details pretty thin so although it appears based on what we've been told so far that she was not prepared for the hike she planned, without more facts we're just speculating.

For example, in the last 24 hours it has emerged that she had a pack with a water bladder and some food items. How do we know she didn't have a headlamp in that pack? It hasn't been reported that she did, but unless her Mom packed her pack we don't know for a fact what was in that pack. Was a compass in there? Map? Lighter? Battery pack to recharge her phone? Knife? Any first aid supplies? Only the person who packed that pack, which I assume was Emily, would know for sure.
These are good points. I have been focused on the shoes solely because of the snow. In good weather I'm sure there are lots of different options depending on someone's skill and preferences.

But if there is 6" of snow and you are wearing low-cut shoes, your ankles are going to get cold and wet very fast. In some places on these trails, you can have drifts of multiple feet of snow that you have to climb through. Saturday there were snow squalls up here where there's short bursts of heavy snow so that means Sunday morning there could be portions of these trails where she would be the first person walking through the new snowfall.

It is just very uncomfortable. If you don't live in an area with constant snow it is hard to imagine. Once the snow starts, the temperature rarely gets above 30 degrees so the same snow stays all winter (with more and more accumulating).

When we first moved up here, I would try to continue my dog walks and easy "hikes" (they are walks but in a forest) in sneakers but my feet would get wet and numb. I traded in for hiking boots. Same issue. Traded up to serious snowboots and they are okay but for longer walks we use snowshoes so you're on top of the snow. I lived in NYC most of my life, this all sounded absolutely crazy to me before I moved up here. But it's just a constant new layer of 8" of snow!
 
As more information has come out, her shoes were actually low-cut hiking boots, not the sneakers that were reported in the earliest articles. She also was wearing thermal underwear.

One fact that has changed in the reporting is the time Emily was dropped off. All the initial reports said she was dropped off just before 5am. In the article saying this was turning into a recovery mission, it was written that Emily was dropped off at 4:30am. In the article from The Vanderbilt Hustler, the school newspaper of Vanderbilt University, it was reported that Emily was dropped off at 4 am.

As Emily only had the flashlight on her phone for lighting, that extends the amount of time she was in the dark and at the mercy of her phone. It would have been so easy to get lost. The quote from The Vanderbilt Hustler is below:

Sotelo, a resident of Westford, Massachusetts, was visiting New Hampshire with her mother for Thanksgiving break, which began on Nov. 19 for undergraduate students. According to MSN News, Sotelo was dropped off by her mother at the Lafayette Place Campground at the Franconia Notch State Park around 4 a.m. CST on Nov. 20 and has not been seen since.
That's good news about the footwear and thermal underwear.
I hadn't seen the updated information about her attire. Could you point me in the right direction?
 
@Snoopster


"While she carried a “small amount of food” in a backpack and a water bladder, the water in the bladder would likely have frozen, said Eastman. Sotelo did not carry a lighter or other means of starting a fire to melt water or for heat."
 
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I have wondered why she did not turn back when she got to all the ice
We don't know if she turned back at some point. She may have. One key question I'm interested in is did her Mom stick around the Lafayette trailhead where she dropped Emily off for a period of time, or did she roll out? It is about 3.1 miles from the trailhead to the Greenleaf hut, then another 1.1 miles from the hut to Lafayette summit. I don't know what the snow depth is at higher elevations in that area now, it could be greatly different than at the trailhead - and it could be greatly different at elevation in the woods compared to the open areas and the ridge where winds will blow the snow off. The summit is 5260' elevation, the parking lot is around 1800'. Greenleaf hut is above treeline.

Based on her expected timeline as it's been reported (~4:30am start, ~3:30pm expected finish), and a loop distance of around 14 miles, we're looking at around 45-50 minutes/mile which is easily do-able for a fit hiker in good weather (I'm around 25-35 minutes/mile most hikes in the Whites/Greens/Maine). Of course it's slower on the climbs and quicker on the descents for most hikers, but I'd speculate if she was keeping to her expected pace she may have gotten to the Greenleaf hut in around 3 hours (if she went that far). If she turned back at that point she could have gotten back to her initial trailhead maybe 5 hours after she started. Very possible she had no cell coverage that entire area. My coverage is very hit or miss on the trails in the White Mountains. I can remember I had zero bars every time I looked when hiking Wildcat A-E and when I hiked Cabot/Horn/Bulge. I can remember I had service when I was on the Presidential Range because I posted some pictures to social media from up top a few of those peaks.

If she did turn around I would speculate that she would have done so before reaching Lafayette peak. Once at that peak, logic would say that she would have turned south and continued on at least through Lincoln Peak to Little Haystack. If there was significant snow it would likely have blown off the ridge and settled into the forested areas below, making travel on the ridge marginally easier (less snow although perhaps icier). At Little Haystack she would have had another decision point: Continue with her original plan south on the ridge towards Liberty/Flume (Liberty is ~2.2 miles south of Haystack, Flume is ~1.2 miles south of Liberty), or turn right (west) and head back to the Lafayette trailhead.

If she had no cell coverage, or perhaps drained her phone's battery and didn't carry battery backup, she could have been back at the Lafayette trailhead any time in the 6:30am-3:00pm range. Perhaps even later if she did the Lafayette/Lincoln/Haystack loop and it was slow going. Her Mom could have been at the Flume/Liberty trailhead. They could have missed each other that way and then who knows what. Very interested in knowing how long her Mom stuck around the Lafayette trailhead, and when she got to the Flume trailhead.
 
That's good news about the footwear and thermal underwear.
I hadn't seen the updated information about her attire. Could you point me in the right direction?
Snoopster,

Sure. Please see the links below.


"She was last seen wearing a brown jacket, exercise pants, thermal long johns and sneakers."

The link above continued to say she was wearing sneakers, but they stated she was wearing thermal long johns.


CBS News reported the following in the second link above: "She was last seen wearing a brown jacket and exercise pants. New Hampshire Fish and Game Cpt. Michael Eastman said Sotelo was wearing low hiking shoes, but they were not appropriate for ice and snow."
 
Respectfully, hikers today in general do not wear the heavy high hiking boots of old.

There are modern high hiking boots available, that are pretty light, I know, I use a pair myself.

Hiking equipment today is significantly lighter now. When I did my thru-hike 20 years ago my backpack alone weighed 6 pounds. Today hikers base weight can be around 6 pounds. Hikers are wearing trail runners these days. And in most weather will not choose waterproof since it takes such a long time for waterproof footwear to dry out.

If they are waterproof, you don't need to dry them because their inside IS dry. And that's the whole point, you take waterproof boots so you don't have to wander with wet and cold feet.

It sounds like she is wearing the clothing, foot wear that would be appropriate for someone looking to do a fast hike that will generate lots of energy and sweating.
No. Not in this weather and with this wind.

That obsession of going light is literally killing people and the most important thing should be to go SAFE.
 
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There are modern high hiking boots available, that are pretty light, I know, I use a pair myself.



If they are waterproof, you don't need to dry them because their inside IS dry. And that's the whole point, you take waterproof boots so you don't have to wander with wet and cold feet.


No. Not in this weather and with this wind.

That obsession of going light is literally killing people and the most important thing should be to go SAFE.
I said that the old HEAVY hiking boots so many wore many years ago are not commonly seen on trails today since equipment used today is so light, hence hikers are not carrying the same weight loads as decades ago and needed better ankle support. In the weather she headed out in the other day waterproof footwear would be the first choice, but for hiking in temps/weather that is warmer hikers do tend to wear non-waterproof footwear.

Do agree that there is a level that some ultra-lightweight hikers take it to that puts them in harms way should things not go as anticipated. I've come to the aid of ultra-light hikers in need of things like band-aids, water, food.
 

Tragic news. :(
I'm amazed they found her as quickly as they did under the search conditions. Infinitely grateful to SAR for all they do. I'm glad all the searchers can safely enjoy Thanksgiving with their families, and heartbroken that Emily cannot.
 

Tragic news. :( Today would have been her 20th birthday.
Just awful, I'm so sorry for her family. Thankfully she can be brought home and laid to rest. I was hoping for a twist that meant she left with someone else a bit down the highway or needed a break but it looks like it was a tragic accident.
 
I'm going to be watching this closely and may hook up the travel trailer and load up the dogs to help search the area. Got to get DH on board. I spent a lot of time in that area as a youngster during summer vacations. The flume was a great place to visit. Hoping she is found safe and sound before I can leave though. I wish everyone would take a GPS with them for safety.
 
I'm amazed they found her as quickly as they did under the search conditions. Infinitely grateful to SAR for all they do. I'm glad all the searchers can safely enjoy Thanksgiving with their families, and heartbroken that Emily cannot.
Perfectly put. I so agree!

To put curiosity around how far in she went to rest, may I ask a local/person familiar with the terrain to mark on one of the maps where the headwaters of the Lafayette Brook are, relative to the route?
 
Perfectly put. I so agree!

To put curiosity around how far in she went to rest, may I ask a local/person familiar with the terrain to mark on one of the maps where the headwaters of the Lafayette Brook are, relative to the route?
F2448FB6-1EA1-419C-BE2E-09E8C29E7D36.jpeg

Keep in mind that I am not a geologist but I believe the headwaters would be in the approximate area of the red dot. NW of Mt Lafayette, North of Old Bridle Path.
 

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