Found Deceased NH - Hiker Emily Sotelo, from MA, dropped off in Franconia, Lafayette trailhead, Hiking Mounts Lafayette, Haystack & Flume, 20 Nov 2022

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Let's say she did decide to bail... She might try to climb down a gully or a wash. If she did that on the wrong side she could be way off-trail.
You can see on google earth that there's a big rock field to the east between Lafayette and Haystack, right below the ridge. If she happened to take that it's about 1.75 miles (straight line) from Franconia Ridge Tr to Lincoln Brook Tr. It's a long bushwhack after that rock field ends.
 
Disagree here... lots of trail runners run the whites and the 48... there are FKTs, etc. And a few trail running events put on by experienced race companies.
I’m saying in general obviously. But for people who hike the full elevation to get their 48, they hike it very, very commonly. This girl was clearly not doing that.
 
I don't have any idea of how much snow and/or ice are on those trails. I see enough rocks that make me worried about black ice and ankle-twisting problems if there was enough snow to cover some of the rocks.

Does anyone know if there was a recent snowfall the night before that might have obscured other tracks made when she started at 5 am.

Do we know how long she expected to be on the trail? Was the start easier so that she could plan the finish of the trail in daylight?
 
Here is the search and rescue team’s Facebook page:


Thanks for the link! It's also worth reading the comments there but remember we can't discuss them here so they're just for local information.
 
It looks to me like the only way to bail before Mount Lafayette is to turn around and go back the way you came. Once you hit the peak of Mount Lafayette your next chance to get down a trail to shorten the hike is after passing Liberty peak and heading down a trail at Little Haystack peak. Not a lot of side trails.

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Does anyone know if there is a way to tackle Mounts Lafayette, Haystack and Flume without tackling Mounts Lincoln and Liberty?

I only ask because all media outlets and the New Hampshire Fish and Game Law Enforcement Division only mention the first three listed mountains as her itinerary. (Maybe she had already summited Mounts Lincoln and Liberty and wasn’t counting them towards her goal when telling her parents what mountains she was tackling?)

 
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Does anyone know if there is a way to tackle Mounts Lafayette, Haystack and Flume without tackling Mounts Lincoln and Liberty?

I only ask because all media outlets and the New Hampshire Fish and Game Law Enforcement Division only mention the first three listed mountains as her itinerary. (Maybe she had already summited Mounts Lincoln and Liberty and wasn’t counting them towards her goal when telling her parents what mountains she was tackling?)

No ... the one and only route that connects Lafayette, Haystack and Flume is the Franconia Ridge Trail which includes Lincoln and Liberty. She would have summited them in this order - Lafayette, Lincoln, Haystack, Liberty and then Flume. Haystack is not recognized as one of the official 48 4000-footers.
 
“We still hang onto hope” that Sotelo may be found alive, Jordan said. “The good news is, the trail system is probably the most popular one in that section. There’s a lot of foot traffic there year-round.”

Sotelo’s family is “obviously very upset” but also hopeful that “she was able to build a shelter” to protect herself, Jordan said. The concern is that she wasn’t carrying the necessary equipment to build a makeshift shelter and start a fire.

No real updates or new information.
 
New WMUR update that provides a few more details about clothing and plans for the week.
Thanks for posting this. Good info there. She had long johns also and they were staying at a hotel that week and her plan was to hike several different places leading up to Thanksgiving. Also mentioned was a White Mountains FB group for people hiking. I am curious if she posted there that she was doing this hike. It says no indication she was meeting anyone to hike, but that doesn't mean she didn't post about this hike or asking questions about a hike she was going to do xyz day. Is it possible someone saw the post and didn't comment on it, but was aware she would be there and when? I'd like to think this is just a hiker lost or having an accident, but I also realize that there are bad people in every part of the world with bad intentions and even something like going for a hike can turn into an opportunity for someone looking for a chance. :(
 
It was reported here that she has a cellphone:


Reporting 20 search teams, but behind a paywall for me:


Video of the search today:

 
This question sounds rhetorical or incredulous, but I assure you it's not: How can the family be "hopeful that 'she was able to build a shelter'" knowing full well she was neither dressed appropriately for the elements nor adequately prepared to endure even the mildest type of inconvenience, let alone sheltering herself?

Do the parents simply not understand, even a little, that Emily had only the meager clothes on her body and maybe *some* water and possibly a cell phone (if that hasn't been disproven yet--I am just checking in on this thread after being away all afternoon), and that the chances of a young adult being able to build a shelter for herself out of...sticks and leaves?...in the dark and unfamiliar woods as hypothermia might begin to set in are terrifyingly remote? Are they honestly that naive? I understand wanting to hold onto hope as long as possible, but the parents come off in the media as not being as concerned as one might expect them to, given their daughter's dire circumstances.

This is all IMO/MOO.

Every parent should have hope in this situation. I know I wouldn't criticize them for hanging on to that small thread.

ETA: improved wording to be less critical. Sorry.
 
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As I read through the various posts by hikers on that trail, I noticed that some said that it was better to do the loop in a counter-clockwise direction. Their reasoning was that going 'down' the Flume Slide Trail was dangerous. They thought it was better to climb up it.
It seems that Emily was doing the route clockwise. So she would have to go down the Flume Trail. Of course if she had actually made it that far and she did slip, the searchers would presumably find her not far from the trail.

I'm guessing that she didn't make it that far.

In the YouTube linked below you can see the slope of the Flume Slide trail.

 
As I read through the various posts by hikers on that trail, I noticed that some said that it was better to do the loop in a counter-clockwise direction. Their reasoning was that going 'down' the Flume Slide Trail was dangerous. They thought it was better to climb up it.
It seems that Emily was doing the route clockwise. So she would have to go down the Flume Trail. Of course if she had actually made it that far and she did slip, the searchers would presumably find her not far from the trail.

I'm guessing that she didn't make it that far.

In the YouTube linked below you can see the slope of the Flume Slide trail.

Excellent point. I would avoid the flume slide on wet summer day, and definitely wouldn’t descend in the winter - I’d probably backtrack to my starting point. On a dry day, I would go counterclockwise and make my ascent via the flume slide. But that is me after many life lessons (including a broken leg). 20 years ago may have been different.
 
As I read through the various posts by hikers on that trail, I noticed that some said that it was better to do the loop in a counter-clockwise direction. Their reasoning was that going 'down' the Flume Slide Trail was dangerous. They thought it was better to climb up it.
It seems that Emily was doing the route clockwise. So she would have to go down the Flume Trail. Of course if she had actually made it that far and she did slip, the searchers would presumably find her not far from the trail.

I'm guessing that she didn't make it that far.

In the YouTube linked below you can see the slope of the Flume Slide trail.

Correct, that had me wondering as well. Very few experienced & equipped hikers would "choose" to descend the Flume Slide trail in these conditions, especially if you're racing an early sunset and darkness on top of tiredness. An out and back tag of Flume and down the Liberty Spring trail is way safer but adds milage. Going down the Osseo is a much easier but significantly longer option (@6 miles to the Kanc) - not to mention east facing so you'd be in the dark guaranteed. Doesn't make much sense. Odd that there hasn't been much said about other hikers encountering her.. Sunday hiker traffic up there is to be expected, even in poor conditions
 
Correct, that had me wondering as well. Very few experienced & equipped hikers would "choose" to descend the Flume Slide trail in these conditions, especially if you're racing an early sunset and darkness on top of tiredness. An out and back tag of Flume and down the Liberty Spring trail is way safer but adds milage. Going down the Osseo is a much easier but significantly longer option (@6 miles to the Kanc) - not to mention east facing so you'd be in the dark guaranteed. Doesn't make much sense. Odd that there hasn't been much said about other hikers encountering her.. Sunday hiker traffic up there is to be expected, even in poor conditions
For those of us who don't know these trails, where is 'Osseo'?
What does '@6 miles to the Kanc' mean?

How much traffic would you expect on that trail at this time of year and in theses conditions? Would other people have been like to have seen Emily?

I appreciate your insight.
@White_Mountains I appreciate yours as well.
 

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