NH NH - Maura Murray, 21, Haverhill, 9 Feb 2004 - #11

[kytty]

This is a fallacy born of being myopic and motivated by unreasonable optimism. Not only does it neglect a credible rather detailed witness report of a red pick up truck (the timing of which fits her accident exactly) but it also glosses over Maura Murray's motivations at this specific point in time.

Maura was highly likely drinking red wine from a small plastic coca-cola bottle at the time she had her accident. This car accident is her second (or possibly third if you link her to the Varsi situation) within just a couple of days. Maura asked Butch Atwood not to call the police when he responded but she probably realized they were already on the way due to the inhabited properties opposite her. It seems clear and logical to me that the most important thing for Maura at this point in time is to avoid the Police at all costs. Where she is there are really only two ways that Maura can avoid LE. Maura can run into the woods, thereby leaving tracks in the snow which in turn leaves a chance of her being located. Alternatively Maura can flag down a passing motorist, this has to be the most effective way of leaving the scene at speed.

Consequently I believe that instead of being snatched by Fred's titular 'dirtbag' Maura might well have flagged him down in her desperation to leave the immediate area. If Maura happened on another good Samaritan like Atwood then we would have a lead, as we do not I can only assume the driver had bad intentions. If we believe the witness about the red pick up then it would be passing Maura just as she would be wanting a ride out of the area. Maura might never usually get into a strangers car but it looks like she has already been drinking behind the wheel and might be partially intoxicated. If Maura feels depressed or suicidal this also heightens risk taking activity.

Now if Maura did hitch out of that area in the first vehicle that picked her up (and I did read that Atwood saw more than a few cars go past while waiting for the police) then she initially went willingly and unfortunately might be anywhere. Perhaps a reason people are keen to discount this theory?

I wonder sometimes if we tend to get lost down the rabbit hole in trying to work out exactly what Maura was thinking during odd incidents in the days before her vanishing. Understanding, say, Maura's motivations after she gets the call that terribly upsets her at work would be hard enough if we knew exactly what was said in the call. Not knowing what was said in the call makes the challenge practically impossible. Add to this that people are often illogical and act in ways that even they do not understand. At any rate, keep up the search and surely discussion can only be a good thing as it keeps attention on Maura who, I am sure, remains in all our thoughts.

Strident verbiage aside, I think your point concerning Maura's desire to avoid contact with law enforcement is spot on.

However, my assertion that Maura was a victim of kidnapping/homicide is borne not out of optimism or 'myopic vision' but fact. According to city-data.com, there were a total of 2 murders in Haverhill from 2004-2012, with zero murders being reported in 2004. That statistic alone makes it unlikely that Maura was a victim of murder.

It's much more likely that an inebriated, terrified, possibly hysterical Maura stumbled into the woods, maybe only intending to wait it out until LE came and left and that she was then incapacitated by the elements or by sustaining an injury. Those woods could be searched 1,000 times without someone finding her remains. I'm so sorry for Maura and for her family that whatever transpired in those days before her leaving campus ended in terrible tragedy.

 

[Fireweed]

However, my assertion that Maura was a victim of kidnapping/homicide is borne not out of optimism or 'myopic vision' but fact. According to city-data.com, there were a total of 2 murders in Haverhill from 2004-2012, with zero murders being reported in 2004. That statistic alone makes it unlikely that Maura was a victim of murder.

ITA. Also, based upon the location and the time of day, I find very unlikely that a person was just passing through that area and grabbed her.

 

[ontheclock]

Strident verbiage aside, I think your point concerning Maura's desire to avoid contact with law enforcement is spot on.

However, my assertion that Maura was a victim of kidnapping/homicide is borne not out of optimism or 'myopic vision' but fact. According to city-data.com, there were a total of 2 murders in Haverhill from 2004-2012, with zero murders being reported in 2004. That statistic alone makes it unlikely that Maura was a victim of murder.

It's much more likely that an inebriated, terrified, possibly hysterical Maura stumbled into the woods, maybe only intending to wait it out until LE came and left and that she was then incapacitated by the elements or by sustaining an injury. Those woods could be searched 1,000 times without someone finding her remains. I'm so sorry for Maura and for her family that whatever transpired in those days before her leaving campus ended in terrible tragedy.

This is my top theory, but I can't rule out foul play.

 

[Captain_Khan]

I don't believe this was a staged crash at all. For one it just makes no logical sense for Maura to stage a crash opposite a place where many people live and could see it. There are plenty of other places. The staging of a crash and her drinking don't seem to go together for me either.

I totally agree the crash wasn't staged. It was far too uncontrolled. The huge crack in the windscreen was either from a bottle or a head, which makes it seem like Maura was not braced for an impact.

 

[trenchmouth]

Strident verbiage aside, I think your point concerning Maura's desire to avoid contact with law enforcement is spot on.

However, my assertion that Maura was a victim of kidnapping/homicide is borne not out of optimism or 'myopic vision' but fact. According to city-data.com, there were a total of 2 murders in Haverhill from 2004-2012, with zero murders being reported in 2004. That statistic alone makes it unlikely that Maura was a victim of murder.

It's much more likely that an inebriated, terrified, possibly hysterical Maura stumbled into the woods, maybe only intending to wait it out until LE came and left and that she was then incapacitated by the elements or by sustaining an injury. Those woods could be searched 1,000 times without someone finding her remains. I'm so sorry for Maura and for her family that whatever transpired in those days before her leaving campus ended in terrible tragedy.

That's precisely what I think happened as well. It was Fred's first thought too, plus she had the book "not without peril" in her car. It all lines up that she was emotionally unstable at the time and took drastic measures to get away and end her life either intentionally or accidentally. What would push someone over the edge? An overbearing father, dropping out of West Point, stress of school, stress in her relationships, multiple accidents, food addictions, alcohol abuse, and lastly I think the Petrit Vasi accident has some validity and may have been what pushed her over the edge.

Did she ever leave her post while working before to run out for food? A pattern?

Was she in fact talking to her sister the night she received the reported disturbing call? Where she said "my sister? Were they able to determined who called her?

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[Fireweed]

We don't even know if Petrit Vasi was hit by a car.

 

[scoops]

We don't even know if Petrit Vasi was hit by a car.

While I am not 100 percent convinced Maura was involved with the hit and run of Vasi, I am also 100 percent convinced it could've been possible.

Vasi's injuries were factually consistent with someone who was struck by a car.
The alternate theory is that he was "Car surfing" and fell out of the car at so many miles per hour.

The evidence has never supported that he fell from a moving car (thus he would be rolling down a road, suffer road rash on both sides of his body etc..

His injuries were very specific and to one side of his body only, like someone who was met head-on with blunt force.

 

[Tssiemer]

While I am not 100 percent convinced Maura was involved with the hit and run of Vasi, I am also 100 percent convinced it could've been possible.



Vasi's injuries were factually consistent with someone who was struck by a car.

The alternate theory is that he was "Car surfing" and fell out of the car at so many miles per hour.



The evidence has never supported that he fell from a moving car (thus he would be rolling down a road, suffer road rash on both sides of his body etc..



His injuries were very specific and to one side of his body only, like someone who was met head-on with blunt force.

I don't think that theory of car surfing is right either.


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[Fireweed]

While I am not 100 percent convinced Maura was involved with the hit and run of Vasi, I am also 100 percent convinced it could've been possible.

Vasi's injuries were factually consistent with someone who was struck by a car.
The alternate theory is that he was "Car surfing" and fell out of the car at so many miles per hour.

The evidence has never supported that he fell from a moving car (thus he would be rolling down a road, suffer road rash on both sides of his body etc..

His injuries were very specific and to one side of his body only, like someone who was met head-on with blunt force.

I totally agree it is possible Maura was involved, I just find it to be highly improbable.

Police stated that Vasi’s injuries were consistent with being struck by or falling from a moving vehicle Daily Collegian article.

But back to Maura. I know Maura was in some trouble, but everything I have read about Maura paints her as an otherwise compassionate person. Would someone who wants to be a nurse not help an injured person? I mean, I know Maura would have been in "big trouble" if she was the one who hit Vasi, but would she really just drive off and leave a man to die? Maybe. I suppose.

Personally, I always thought that the Vasi thing was just a coincidence. Maura was at work during that time. People have speculated that she took a break, but no one has ever been able to explain the parking situation at that dorm to my satisfaction. Unless Maura had a reserved spot right out front, then it would be practically impossible for Maura to have hit Vasi.

I know some have speculated that Fred knew Maura hit Vasi and so he came up to "deal" with the situation, but I am not seeing it. I do not think that if Fred were covering for his daughter's crime, that he would leave the Saturn there (the evidence). I think he would have had that car removed immediately.

 

[Tssiemer]

I totally agree it is possible Maura was involved, I just find it to be highly improbable.



Police stated that Vasi’s injuries were consistent with being struck by or falling from a moving vehicle Daily Collegian article.



But back to Maura. I know Maura was in some trouble, but everything I have read about Maura paints her as an otherwise compassionate person. Would someone who wants to be a nurse not help an injured person? I mean, I know Maura would have been in "big trouble" if she was the one who hit Vasi, but would she really just drive off and leave a man to die? Maybe. I suppose.



Personally, I always thought that the Vasi thing was just a coincidence. Maura was at work during that time. People have speculated that she took a break, but no one has ever been able to explain the parking situation at that dorm to my satisfaction. Unless Maura had a reserved spot right out front, then it would be practically impossible for Maura to have hit Vasi.



I know some have speculated that Fred knew Maura hit Vasi and so he came up to "deal" with the situation, but I am not seeing it. I do not think that if Fred were covering for his daughter's crime, that he would leave the Saturn there (the evidence). I think he would have had that car removed immediately.

Ita. She was a nursing student. She had lots of compassion. The Vasi accident is too coincidental and wraps everything in this nice bow that we know is not possible. She took off for my personal reasons IMO.


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[Fireweed]

I just had a thought (dangerous I know). Let's say that Fred was planning on getting Maura a car that weekend. Now generally this is something people discuss for some time before it actually happens.

Okay just a thought: what if Maura had been planning/thinking about running away for some time? Like since Christmas break? Or before that? During Christmas break Maura's dad starts talking about her "needing a better car for clinicals." Recall, Fred was very concerned about Maura's academic performance and so he was not going to take any chances when it came to Maura's studies. So Maura does not think her car is in very good shape, but she still dreams of taking off and starting a new life. Now all she has to do is wait to get her new car. Earlier that week, her dad calls to say he will be coming up for the weekend to get her a new car. Now she sets up her plan: she has a "breakdown" at work that several people witness, including her supervisor. This is the set up for the Monday "death in the family" email.

Now the weekend does not go as planned. Maura does not get her car, and has to use her old one instead, but the car is still running reasonably well, so she decides to go for it.

 

[scoops]

I just had a thought (dangerous I know). Let's say that Fred was planning on getting Maura a car that weekend. Now generally this is something people discuss for some time before it actually happens.

Okay just a thought: what if Maura had been planning/thinking about running away for some time? Like since Christmas break? Or before that? During Christmas break Maura's dad starts talking about her "needing a better car for clinicals." Recall, Fred was very concerned about Maura's academic performance and so he was not going to take any chances when it came to Maura's studies. So Maura does not think her car is in very good shape, but she still dreams of taking off and starting a new life. Now all she has to do is wait to get her new car. Earlier that week, her dad calls to say he will be coming up for the weekend to get her a new car. Now she sets up her plan: she has a "breakdown" at work that several people witness, including her supervisor. This is the set up for the Monday "death in the family" email.

Now the weekend does not go as planned. Maura does not get her car, and has to use her old one instead, but the car is still running reasonably well, so she decides to go for it.

I haven't ever been able to figure out why (If Maura's car was in bad shape as family says it was) that they didn't take care of getting her a newer car during the two months she was off during winter break.

Why wait until 10 days into a new semester to deal with getting a car?

Clinicals (which in some cases were an hour away at UMASS) were very important and so Maura would've been really risking it, driving a car on its last legs or she would've totally been dependent on getting rides every time.


I would think that if her father was really concerned about her clincials, he would've saw to it that she had a newer car to drive back to campus to begin the new semester with.

The fact that it was introduced in all the news reports in the early days of the investigation (by family members) that Maura's car was in such bad shape, has always been odd to me.

Who was asking about Maura's car and what condition it was in when they were learning about Maura's disappearance?

It seems like they were trying to force a narrative to the story that no one was even disputing or were even all that curious about.

 

[Vox_Veritas_JT]

Out of interest has anyone spoken to the first responding police officer in detail? I would be interested to know how thoroughly he (and others) searched the area. If Maura had run into the woods (which is clearly a possibility) then surely significant tracks would be left in the snow? Surely it would be easy to pick these footsteps out?

Regarding the statistics on murders in the Haverhill area, I don't personally find them especially relevant to this situation. I see why some will but if Maura did end up being victimized by an unsub giving her a ride then he needn't even have any prior criminal convictions. Which is to say that I see this as a crime of opportunity involving a partially intoxicated, desperate, attractive young girl. It concerns me that she was in a perfect state to take advantage of. All she would need do is rebuff an advance for things to potentially turn very bad. What's to say that the given ride didn't end up with Maura and the unsub somewhere else (his place?) consuming the rest of the alcohol before things went awry?

apologies for peddling the myopic line, bad day at work, c'est la vie.

 

[Fireweed]

Out of interest has anyone spoken to the first responding police officer in detail? I would be interested to know how thoroughly he (and others) searched the area. If Maura had run into the woods (which is clearly a possibility) then surely significant tracks would be left in the snow? Surely it would be easy to pick these footsteps out?

Regarding the statistics on murders in the Haverhill area, I don't personally find them especially relevant to this situation. I see why some will but if Maura did end up being victimized by an unsub giving her a ride then he needn't even have any prior criminal convictions. Which is to say that I see this as a crime of opportunity involving a partially intoxicated, desperate, attractive young girl. It concerns me that she was in a perfect state to take advantage of. All she would need do is rebuff an advance for things to potentially turn very bad. What's to say that the given ride didn't end up with Maura and the unsub somewhere else (his place?) consuming the rest of the alcohol before things went awry?

apologies for peddling the myopic line, bad day at work, c'est la vie.

They drove around a little and looked for her, but otherwise they did not search at all because they had no reason to. As far as they knew, they had a drunk driver who fled the scene, which happens all the time. Unlike what Fred Murray claims, there was no compelling reason to have a big search in the first 36 hours after the wreck.

 

[scoops]

Out of interest has anyone spoken to the first responding police officer in detail? I would be interested to know how thoroughly he (and others) searched the area. If Maura had run into the woods (which is clearly a possibility) then surely significant tracks would be left in the snow? Surely it would be easy to pick these footsteps out?

Regarding the statistics on murders in the Haverhill area, I don't personally find them especially relevant to this situation. I see why some will but if Maura did end up being victimized by an unsub giving her a ride then he needn't even have any prior criminal convictions. Which is to say that I see this as a crime of opportunity involving a partially intoxicated, desperate, attractive young girl. It concerns me that she was in a perfect state to take advantage of. All she would need do is rebuff an advance for things to potentially turn very bad. What's to say that the given ride didn't end up with Maura and the unsub somewhere else (his place?) consuming the rest of the alcohol before things went awry?

apologies for peddling the myopic line, bad day at work, c'est la vie.

The initial search the first night was actually a pretty good one as I understand it.

The first responding officer was on scene for nearly two hours. Around 12 firemen/women also responded simply to help search for the driver. And the neighbors that had called 911 to report the car in the ditch (at least the husband) also came out and surveyed the wreck scene (after the car had been towed).

And in all of that, they weren't dealing with a fugitive, they were simply dealing with an abandoned car found crashed into a snow bank.

So I would say, they did a pretty extensive job (considering the circumstances)

They also felt like the young female driver wasn't harmed by the wreck and might have been close to her final destination and likely had made it (on foot or by car) so they weren't too concerned that the matter wouldn't be resolved by the next day or so. They ID'ed the owner of the car through looking at the VIN Number. That was all they really were obligated to do besides getting the car towed and out of the road.

 

[Tssiemer]

I kind of like the theory of her hiding in the woods until the cops left but succumbed to the elements


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[bragi]

I kind of like the theory of her hiding in the woods until the cops left but succumbed to the elements

I recently read an article about people disappearing in the White Mountains and their remains being found many years later.

When I think about this from the perspective of the mountains, my thought process goes like this: "When people go missing in the White Mountains, what does that usually mean?" The answer is obvious: They die. It's true that it wasn't that cold out, but again if you think from the perspective of the mountains, you can ask "What does the temperature hovering around freezing mean? What does it mean for people missing in the mountains?" The answer I come up with is: things freeze, thaw, and things that may look frozen will give way. This is a pretty dangerous situation for someone lost, desperate, impaired and in the dark.

This thought process crowds everything else about this case out for me. It makes it seem clear to me that Maura is sadly somewhere in the mountains and we won't find out where for years.

 

[Vox_Veritas_JT]

The initial search the first night was actually a pretty good one as I understand it.

The first responding officer was on scene for nearly two hours. Around 12 firemen/women also responded simply to help search for the driver. And the neighbors that had called 911 to report the car in the ditch (at least the husband) also came out and surveyed the wreck scene (after the car had been towed).

Considering the people and time spent at the scene in conjunction with the relatively speedy response it seems highly unlikely that tracks into the woods would be missed. Although not looking for a fugitive they all clearly searched for the driver. If it can be confirmed that snow was on the ground then absence of noticed tracks in the snow means absence of tracks which simply means to me that Maura got a ride out of the area.

 

[scoops]

Considering the people and time spent at the scene in conjunction with the relatively speedy response it seems highly unlikely that tracks into the woods would be missed. Although not looking for a fugitive they all clearly searched for the driver. If it can be confirmed that snow was on the ground then absence of noticed tracks in the snow means absence of tracks which simply means to me that Maura got a ride out of the area.

I do wonder just how careful they were (having 12 firemen/women) out looking for a abandoned car's driver when (at the time) there was no sense of anything sinister having happened.

Were they really considering that by them walking and driving around, that they may indeed be destroying footprint evidence by treading/driving over it themselves.

If they knew that someone was literally taken from the scene, the 12 firemen/women likely would've not been allowed to even search that night to begin with.

Police would've roped off the entire area from the public and immediately would've begun an investigation themselves.


From everything I have heard, there was no snow to at most a moderate dusting on the roads that night.
Maura's footprints were believed to have been spotted right next to her car in the snow bank.

If Maura walked on the road, I highly doubt that days later - when searches really began for her - that they would be able to find her footprints.

 

[Coffeelover]

I'm unclear whether they immediately searched along Bradley Hill Road. If I were in Maura's situation and wanted to avoid the police, I'd definitely get off the main road and hide out on a side-road. This was also the place where there was a sighting of a red truck around the time of her disappearance.