NH NH - Maura Murray, 21, Haverhill, 9 Feb 2004 - # 7

[Mr. Noatak]

Looking forward to hearing more from Mr. Noatak. Not sure what happened to your post. It is interesting to hear different perspectives.

My opinions only, no facts here:

I would have strongly recommended that you read the article titled "Maura is Missing" at http://southshorexpress.com, but the darn site seems buggered now and the four parts are difficult or impossible to open. However, I have had recent luck going to the wikipedia site for Maura is Missing and clicking on their links to some of the four-part series in their citations. I am sure most of you sleuths have scoured that story already. Anyway, what you need can be found in this investigative report- but you have to spot it! But remember, I personally believe that NONE of the people named in this report harmed Maura.

There is a "fight or flight" aspect to everybody's personality. It takes a certain event or a chain of successive events for this happen. After Maura wrecked her father's car, something snapped. Something driven by guilt over the accident and a thousand, nay a million snippets of prior history that define one's individual and fascinating personality. Maura decided to go on a road trip for soul-searching and with the childish thought in the back of her mind that she would rent a room up north and call her father and have him come up and visit with her near the old location where they used to go when she was a little girl.

Maura is not a party animal, but bought some alcohol and was sipping it as she went. That is only natural (in spite of open container laws), because she was stressed and just wishing to stay calm. Unfortunately, she was not 100% sober when she rounded the bend on Wild Ammonoosuc Road in wintery conditions, and she slid off. Now, she is really feeling frantic- what if the cops come and arrest her for DUI? She is wrestling with feelings of guilt, remorse, and confusion (even though in reality she has done nothing wrong). She was offered help by a bus driver, but refused it. She walked 100 yards to the junction with Bradley Hill Road at about 1 Wild Ammonoosuc Road. That is where she disappeared. That is where the dog tracked her. That is where the scent ended. Prior to this event, everything that happened was "white noise" and unrelated.

To be continued.....

 

[telemag]

"A local contractor named Rick Forcier had reported seeing Maura on the night of her accident around 8 about 4 to 5 miles from the scene of her abandoned car. Forcier lived on Wild Ammonoosuc Road about 100 yards from where Maura's car was found."


This has always had me curious. How would Maura have gotten 4 to 5 miles from the crash site in roughly 30 min? It seems a big coincidence that this guy who lived right by the scene of the crash saw her running that far away from the crash sight. There are only so many possibilties, either he saw another girl who fit Maura's description, it really was Maura and she somehow got to that area in a short time or he is lying for some reason.

I think Rick said she ran down a side round when she saw him coming. I wonder if he was questioned about which road. I'm sure there are plenty of side roads, but I'm curious as to why the 4 to 5 mile discrepancy.


Not sure if this is the same man, but I found this:

Joseph Frederick “Rick” Forcier Jr., 64, of Peace Drive, Jaffrey, died peacefully April 5, 2011, at Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center in Lebanon.

He was born in Peterborough, July 30, 1946, son of J. Frederick and Irene Frances (Gibson) Forcier. He was a graduate of Conant High School in Jaffrey.

 

[Mr. Noatak]

My opinions only, no facts here:

You would have to read my prior entry for the following to make complete sense.

Part 2: As I stated previously, I believe that the crime started at Bradley Hill Road at about 1 Wild Ammonoosuc Road. I am aware of the rag or whatever stuffed in the tailpipe of Maura’s car. I acknowledge it could have been sabotage by another or even a suicide attempt, but this detail somehow seems so irreverent that is has to be overlooked for now. But if someone were to argue that all of the white noise in the case ended when the car slid off the road and the initial crime occurred right there, I would not vehemently argue against them. But I still believe that Maura walked the 100 yards from the car wreck to Bradley Hill Road at about 1 Wild Ammonoosuc Road by herself.

The people who permanently lived around the location of Maura’s disappearance all seem to be respectable and decent. Some of them have subsequently been hounded and I cannot blame them if they are tired of talking. The officers who stopped by the accident scene early on (but Maura was already gone), also appear to be stalwart individuals who acted professionally. I suggest the sleuth look a wee bit beyond the presently-known names for a suspect.

I usually list a calculation of the odds of certain outcomes in an unsolved criminal case. This shows the readers where my mind is at and what my biases are. So here goes:

Maura was abducted by someone who was a “sometimes-resident” of the area- 3 out of 7.
Maura was abducted by someone who was a permanent resident of the area- 2 out of 7.
Maura was abducted by someone randomly passing through- 1 out of 7.
Maura wandered into the woods and died in a non-criminal manner- 0.5 out of 7.
Maura went on a marathon run down the road to places unknown- 0.5 out of 7.

To be continued…..

 

[McSpy]

"A local contractor named Rick Forcier had reported seeing Maura on the night of her accident around 8 about 4 to 5 miles from the scene of her abandoned car. Forcier lived on Wild Ammonoosuc Road about 100 yards from where Maura's car was found."


This has always had me curious. How would Maura have gotten 4 to 5 miles from the crash site in roughly 30 min? It seems a big coincidence that this guy who lived right by the scene of the crash saw her running that far away from the crash sight. There are only so many possibilties, either he saw another girl who fit Maura's description, it really was Maura and she somehow got to that area in a short time or he is lying for some reason.

I think Rick said she ran down a side round when she saw him coming. I wonder if he was questioned about which road. I'm sure there are plenty of
side roads, but I'm curious as to why the 4 to 5 mile discrepancy.


Not sure if this is the same man, but I found this:

Joseph Frederick “Rick” Forcier Jr., 64, of Peace Drive, Jaffrey, died peacefully April 5, 2011, at Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center in Lebanon.

He was born in Peterborough, July 30, 1946, son of J. Frederick and Irene Frances (Gibson) Forcier. He was a graduate of Conant High School in Jaffrey.

There are several Rick Forciers in NH. This guy isn't the contractor. The contractor, who supposedly saw Maura, was about 20 years younger than the Rick you have mentioned.

I'm a little suspicious about the contractor too. Maura's scent was lost right in front of his house. She was a champion runner and the contractor may have got the distance wrong or the time he saw her wrong, so I'm not sure what to think. It was quite a distance in a short amount of time. Plus, I would think those liquor bottles in her backpack would have been clanging around. They could have slowed her down too.

 

[I Care]

There are several Rick Forciers in NH. This guy isn't the contractor. The contractor, who supposedly saw Maura, was about 20 years younger than the Rick you have mentioned. /snip/

Ricky lives in Dalton, NH.

 

[telemag]

My opinions only, no facts here:

You would have to read my prior entry for the following to make complete sense.

Part 2: As I stated previously, I believe that the crime started at Bradley Hill Road at about 1 Wild Ammonoosuc Road. I am aware of the rag or whatever stuffed in the tailpipe of Maura’s car. I acknowledge it could have been sabotage by another or even a suicide attempt, but this detail somehow seems so irreverent that is has to be overlooked for now. But if someone were to argue that all of the white noise in the case ended when the car slid off the road and the initial crime occurred right there, I would not vehemently argue against them. But I still believe that Maura walked the 100 yards from the car wreck to Bradley Hill Road at about 1 Wild Ammonoosuc Road by herself.

The people who permanently lived around the location of Maura’s disappearance all seem to be respectable and decent. Some of them have subsequently been hounded and I cannot blame them if they are tired of talking. The officers who stopped by the accident scene early on (but Maura was already gone), also appear to be stalwart individuals who acted professionally. I suggest the sleuth look a wee bit beyond the presently-known names for a suspect.

I usually list a calculation of the odds of certain outcomes in an unsolved criminal case. This shows the readers where my mind is at and what my biases are. So here goes:

Maura was abducted by someone who was a “sometimes-resident” of the area- 3 out of 7.
Maura was abducted by someone who was a permanent resident of the area- 2 out of 7.
Maura was abducted by someone randomly passing through- 1 out of 7.
Maura wandered into the woods and died in a non-criminal manner- 0.5 out of 7.
Maura went on a marathon run down the road to places unknown- 0.5 out of 7.

To be continued…..

Got a question for ya if you don't mind. When you say "I suggest the sleuth look a wee bit beyond the presently-known names for a suspect." Do you mean someone who has NEVER been mentioned before? If that is the case then how would someone go beyond those names? I know you mentioned in your first post that you did not believe that anyone who was mentioned up until now harmed Maura. I said before and this is just a thought that I found it odd that this Rick guy came forward after 3 months to say he thought he saw Maura miles away from the accident site roughly 30 minutes after she walked off and even more odd that the dogs lost her scent near his home. Does anyone know how long Rick had lived there? Wasn't he living in a trailer while waiting for his home to be built? Just wondered how long he had been a resident there.

 

[I Care]

Does anyone know how long Rick had lived there? Wasn't he living in a trailer while waiting for his home to be built? Just wondered how long he had been a resident there.

The deed to the property and mobile home, a 1984 Skyline Jay 60x14, was signed over to him from Randall S. and Marjorie B. Burt on 17 October, 2001.
You can get a copy of this from the Grafton County Registry of Deeds, Book 2591, Pg 0311 and 0312.
Yes, he was in the process of having a house built next to it on the property. I'm not sure if he was building it by himself or if he had a contractor.

 

[SN00PY]

There are several Rick Forciers in NH. This guy isn't the contractor. The contractor, who supposedly saw Maura, was about 20 years younger than the Rick you have mentioned.

I'm a little suspicious about the contractor too. Maura's scent was lost right in front of his house. She was a champion runner and the contractor may have got the distance wrong or the time he saw her wrong, so I'm not sure what to think. It was quite a distance in a short amount of time. Plus, I would think those liquor bottles in her backpack would have been clanging around. They could have slowed her down too.

I'm a little suspicious about the contractor also, along with that bus driver ...

Though the dog did not get any hits in the adjacent wooded area or from nearby homes, the dog did track Maura's scent near the intersection of Bradley Hill Road 100 yards eastbound from where her car was found.

There are several homes in that area of the road, which is just yards from the Bath town line. On the even side of Wild Ammonoosuc Road is the home of Arthur "Butch" Atwood, the bus driver who said he stopped and offered Maura help that Monday evening. Across the street at 1 Wild Ammonoosuc Road is the home of Rick Forcier, a 45-year-old local contractor, who was living in a trailer on his property while his home was being built. Also within view is the property of Virginia and John Marrotte who live adjacent to Rick Forcier.

http://www.facebook.com/topic.php?uid=112345878791938&topic=20

 

[Mr. Noatak]

Got a question for ya if you don't mind. When you say "I suggest the sleuth look a wee bit beyond the presently-known names for a suspect." Do you mean someone who has NEVER been mentioned before? If that is the case then how would someone go beyond those names? I know you mentioned in your first post that you did not believe that anyone who was mentioned up until now harmed Maura. I said before and this is just a thought that I found it odd that this Rick guy came forward after 3 months to say he thought he saw Maura miles away from the accident site roughly 30 minutes after she walked off and even more odd that the dogs lost her scent near his home. Does anyone know how long Rick had lived there? Wasn't he living in a trailer while waiting for his home to be built? Just wondered how long he had been a resident there.

My opinions only, no facts here:

I feel that the recent posts here by my fellow sleuths are insightful and show you are thinking about this case in a logical manner. To answer your primary question, it is possible that a name not known to anyone here could be relevant, but even if so, it will not be a total stranger to the area by any means. But I just have opinions and do not let me steer you away from your theories. What is interesting is that (and I rarely link cases together) this case might be related to the Brianna Maitland and Aime Riley situations.

How do you go beyond the names? I am glad you asked me that. I have a post I was going to put up last night, but got side-tracked. It is the third of my 3-part contribution to the Maura Murray case:

Part 3: following my two previous posts on the Maura Murray case, I want to list the strategies that I have used in the Holly Bobo, Jamison family, Maura Murray, and McStay family cases (and some others):

1) look up ALL of the people named in the case (witnesses, people you suspect, officials, etc.) who are interesting to you- on the internet. Use Google advanced search and put keep adding currently-relevant words in the “unwanted words box” until you can read about the person PRIOR to the case. In the Maura Murray case, simply typing the word “Maura” in the unwanted words box will significantly reduce the number of hits, although this can also cause you to lose a few relevant hits. As soon as a new sensational crime is reported, all of the associated players show up on thousands or hundreds of thousands of hits related to the current case. This is internet “white noise”, and prevents you from getting hits about the person’s past prior to the case.
2) if all of the people named in the case check out OK (no prison time, arrest warrants, UFO abductions etc.), then look at their immediate relatives using Google advanced search in the same reverse manner. Parents have sons and daughters and sons and daughters have parents. There are brothers and sisters and uncles. It is a package deal.
3) to better laser-in-on an individual person of interest, pay close attention to which of the main players is telling the least-believable story. Whose fish gets longer every time they tell the story, and whose fish stays the same length? Silence by itself does not prove anything. People who are even incidentally involved in high-profile cases are being hounded constantly and oft-times get tired of talking to the press. Pay attention to those who offer up words and shrug about the silent ones. There is little you can do about silence. So what might constitute a non-believable story? Three things stand out for me: the story changes significantly over time, the story-teller’s memory gets more accurate with time, or their story is widely-rejected by other major NAMED players in the case.

 

[Mr. Noatak]

So when you say everything do you mean even the possibility of sabatoge to Maura's car? I notice that you call this a crime so I take it that you do not believe that she went off into the woods and got lost. A lot of people think that she got into a car especially since the dogs lost her trail on the road. If I remember correctly I read either here or someone where else that dogs can have a hard time trailing a scent on asphalt. Personally I do not think that she got into a car, but I'm sure it's possible. One other thing, how hard were the people that were across the road from accident looked into, does anyone know?

My opinions only, no facts here:

Fellow sleuther and friend, after your post I believe I addressed some of your questions with my recent contributions to this thread. A good bloodhound can track someone AFTER they are in a car that sped off down the road. For tens of miles or a hundred miles, almost indefinitely. Dogs used in most searches are not that good, so where the scent ends is commonly where the person got in a vehicle. But vehicles can then travel a hundred miles or one mile.

 

[McSpy]

Ricky lives in Dalton, NH.

A while back on this forum, I provided a link of a Rick F. in Dalton, who is into ice fishing. I wasn't sure this was the right guy, but the age fits and the location of Dalton to Woodsville looked right to me, since it wasn't that far from where he once lived on Rt. 112. Do you have any other evidence that it is the contractor? Also, are you from the area?

 

[McSpy]

My opinions only, no facts here:

I feel that the recent posts here by my fellow sleuths are insightful and show you are thinking about this case in a logical manner. To answer your primary question, it is possible that a name not known to anyone here could be relevant, but even if so, it will not be a total stranger to the area by any means. But I just have opinions and do not let me steer you away from your theories. What is interesting is that (and I rarely link cases together) this case might be related to the Brianna Maitland and Aime Riley situations.

How do you go beyond the names? I am glad you asked me that. I have a post I was going to put up last night, but got side-tracked. It is the third of my 3-part contribution to the Maura Murray case:

Part 3: following my two previous posts on the Maura Murray case, I want to list the strategies that I have used in the Holly Bobo, Jamison family, Maura Murray, and McStay family cases (and some others):

1) look up ALL of the people named in the case (witnesses, people you suspect, officials, etc.) who are interesting to you- on the internet. Use Google advanced search and put keep adding currently-relevant words in the “unwanted words box” until you can read about the person PRIOR to the case. In the Maura Murray case, simply typing the word “Maura” in the unwanted words box will significantly reduce the number of hits, although this can also cause you to lose a few relevant hits. As soon as a new sensational crime is reported, all of the associated players show up on thousands or hundreds of thousands of hits related to the current case. This is internet “white noise”, and prevents you from getting hits about the person’s past prior to the case.
2) if all of the people named in the case check out OK (no prison time,
arrest warrants, UFO abductions etc.), then look at their immediate relatives using Google advanced search in the same reverse manner. Parents have sons and daughters and sons and daughters have parents. There are brothers and sisters and uncles. It is a package deal.
3) to better laser-in-on an individual person of interest, pay close attention to which of the main players is telling the least-believable story. Whose fish gets longer every time they tell the story, and whose fish stays the same length? Silence by itself does not prove anything. People who are even incidentally involved in high-profile cases are being hounded constantly and oft-times get tired of talking to the press. Pay attention to those who offer up words and shrug about the silent ones. There is little you can do about silence. So what might constitute a non-believable story? Three things stand out for me: the story changes significantly over time, the story-teller’s memory gets
more accurate with time, or their story is widely-rejected by other major NAMED players in the case.

In your opinion, who's fish is getting bigger?

 

[telemag]

My opinions only, no facts here:

Fellow sleuther and friend, after your post I believe I addressed some of your questions with my recent contributions to this thread. A good bloodhound can track someone AFTER they are in a car that sped off down the road. For tens of miles or a hundred miles, almost indefinitely. Dogs used in most searches are not that good, so where the scent ends is commonly where the person got in a vehicle. But vehicles can then travel a hundred miles or one mile.

Thanks for the posts!! OK so I did not know this about the bloodhounds, so since the scent ended abruptly on the road then she may have gotten into a car, but if so then why didn't the dog or dogs follow her trail? Either they were not good enough or ??????. Maybe another thing to consider is that she was still very nearby and that is why the dogs didn't go any further, but if she was near by then I would think that they would have been able to track her down and pin point to where she actually was at the moment?

 

[Mr. Noatak]

My opinions only, no facts here:

Either the dogs were not bloodhounds or the variable winter conditions affected the scent trail. My guess is that Maura got into a car where the scent ended. But the car may have not gone all that far. This is not a major road, most traffic is fairly local.

 

[Mr. Noatak]

In your opinion, who's fish is getting bigger?

My opinions only, no facts here:

As others have noted on websleuths, I rarely use a name. But I give tips so others can have the satisfation of finding a name. In the best (and worst) case scenario, Maura may be a mile or less from where she disappeared.

Something that police should ask when they go door-to-door in the neighborhood after a crime: do you have any relatives visiting your house or lodging out back? The person who answers the door is not the entire picture.

I am not being provocative, I am being practical. There are three categories in a neighborhood: permanent, sometimes, and transient. The permanent are more likely to be solid and uninvolved. The transient have less to lose and are most likely to be involved. But the ones in the middle are overlooked.

 

[telemag]

My opinions only, no facts here:

Either the dogs were not bloodhounds or the variable winter conditions affected the scent trail. My guess is that Maura got into a car where the scent ended. But the car may have not gone all that far. This is not a major road, most traffic is fairly local.

I have a feeling you are wanting me to read between the lines.

 

[OldSteve]

I have a feeling you are wanting me to read between the lines.

Reading between-the-lines is tricky.... none of us knows what really really happened.... going by percentages doesn't help us since who knows if a one-in-a-million event took place, and I wouldn't discount that since there are probably thousands of times a year a gal takes off like MM did and nothing happens. We know of MM because something unique happened here.

I tell myself, not to be quick to accuse.... for example, let's say, someone from LE was first on the scene, and instead of wanting to harm or take advantage of the situation (seems we always like to go the route of someone wanting to harm), he wants to help her and so he gives her a ride to someplace miles away (pick a place) a bar/restaurant, a motel/hotel.... and he leaves her. It's from there, later on, after he has left that MM gets into trouble... Now might the fictitious LE character in my scenario be most reluctant to say anything since his trying to do good will get him in a heap of job trouble?

 

[telemag]

Reading between-the-lines is tricky.... none of us knows what really really happened.... going by percentages doesn't help us since who knows if a one-in-a-million event took place, and I wouldn't discount that since there are probably thousands of times a year a gal takes off like MM did and nothing happens. We know of MM because something unique happened here.

I tell myself, not to be quick to accuse.... for example, let's say, someone from LE was first on the scene, and instead of wanting to harm or take advantage of the situation (seems we always like to go the route of someone wanting to harm), he wants to help her and so he gives her a ride to someplace miles away (pick a place) a bar/restaurant, a motel/hotel.... and he leaves her. It's from there, later on, after he has left that MM gets into trouble... Now might the fictitious LE character in my scenario be most reluctant to say anything since his trying to do good will get him in a heap of job trouble?

Actually I meant that maybe Mr. Noatak already made up his mind as to who "might" have had something to do with Maura's disappearance. As far as percentages are concerned I gotta disagree with you on this one. The area from which she disappeared from was a sparsely driven road that prob had mostly local people driving on it most of the time. This is not to say that a complete stranger could not have given Maura a ride. Given all the elements of the situation and there are many, but not as many as say someone being abducted in a crowded city, lets say that the odds of Maura taking a ride from someone familiar with the area is 3 in 10. Now, lets say that the odds of her being abducted by aliens are 1 in 1,000,000 and no I am not trying to be funny just can't think of anything else that rare. So in this situation you need to go after the obvious first as opposed to the not so obvious and then try to rule out certain scenarios.

I certainly don't know as much as LE or many on this board about this case, but given what little I do know I am some what surprised that LE has not gone after someone by now. I have read more than once that LE said they had a suspect in mind so why hasn't anyone up to this point been arrested? Maybe that person is dead by now and no I am not referring to the bus driver.

 

[OldSteve]

No problem disagreeing... I enjoy reading different points of view...

By the way, on one of the old boards, they actually got into discussing that MM might have been abducted by aliens! :ufo:

 

[gnomony]

...I have read more than once that LE said they had a suspect in mind so why hasn't anyone up to this point been arrested? Maybe that person is dead by now ...

I think it is very possible that LE thinks they know who did it and that the likely culprit is now dead. And I think that that is frequently the frustrating truth about cold cases...