Truth, with respect, I consider myself a Bayesian, and I believe your math is insufficient in this instance. Let's use Bayes Theorem and I think you'll see that our competing theories are not that far removed. I'll think a bit more about how we might construct a true Bayes Net to properly weigh the (imperfect) evidence at hand mathematically to develop something with a much higher degree of statistical precision. Perhaps I can even turn you into a Bayesian
Also, begrudgingly, I'll think about your last comment in bold this weekend. Have a nice Friday!
As we have described the 2 events (SK halfway house call & CPH just helping call) in our prior posts, they were
independent events.
(if they were in fact 2 separate events)
Bayes' theorem is not needed as its a simple joint probability problem.
I know the model I used isn't perfect, I was simply trying to illustrate the unlikelihood of both events occurring independently. I will not entertain your next theory which includes your MD hiding in the brush and overhearing CPH talking to diaz about calling the mother, giving the MD the idea to place the HH call, making the probabilities conditional, hence needing Bayes'. It doesn't even make sense that a non CPH SK would make the HH statement in an attempt to aim the investigation towards CPH, if the non CPH SK knew CPH to be talking to the family already or about to.
We don't even (as of now) have reason to believe the two calls weren't actually
one and the same. So we can not say that given the HH call, whats the prob of CPH calling innocently.
Moreover, in your theory the HH call occurs before Pak & Diaz meet CPH. We know Pak & Diaz checked with the G family to see if she returned to upstate NY before they went back searching in oak beach. So Pak would have known about the HH call, he would know CPH to be a liar and suspect him as the offender, and he most certainly would not have given CPH the little sisters phone number. The HH call came after CPH met with Pak and Diaz, otherwise the factual CPH call wouldn't have occurred and we know it did.
Also, no one is going to believe that this bright MD and methodical "teflon" SK used a burlap rug from his own house to wrap the bodies. You would never be able to rid your house of all the left over identical burlap fibers!
When you have multiple facts describing and outlining an event that occurred in reality, it becomes impossible to stage and substitute in a scenario that didn't actually occur.(truthspider's theorem) Just ask Dr. Jeffrey MacDonald.
And I prefer bajans to bayesians anyday.
