NY - LISK Bodies found as of December 10, 2011 Thread #13

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“The letters were type written and hand signed, you don't need to contact 48 hours because the police commisioner(sic) confirmed it.”

How could you possibly know with any degree of certainty that the letters were hand signed? If you have supporting documentation, please post the link(s).

I don't state assertions unless I have verified them. I don't mind sharing, sorry if I come across as coarse. I attached the snapshots of the letters. 48 hrs did a terrible job securing the information they intended to keep private on the PDF they made available to the public.
 

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Let us carefully anaylze some probabilities

Assume that inspctorgadget and Dormer are correct and SG wandered into the swamp and drowned with no foul play involved.

If this is a probable outcome, in theory it should have happened before. Now I know people are drowning regularly in the ocean, in bays and in rivers. But how common is it that somebody has drowned in the Oak beach area swamps before?

If historical records show every few years somebody wanders into the swamp and drowns, the theory that is what happened to SG becomes very believable. On the other hand if there is no or minimal historical record of people drowning in the swamp areas, then I doubt SG drowned.

Anybody out their know of another swamp drowning in Long Island?

We don't know COD in SG's case was drowning. All types of things may have come into play in Shannan's case: hypothermia, cardiovascular seizure, epileptic seizure, panic attack, aspirated vomit, drugs, alcohol, bipolar disorder --- who knows what exact constellations of factors collided to produce this tragic end.

Look, it was dark, wet and cold, and Shannan was not thinking clearly. There were potentially a lot of risk factors involved here, and while its not your typical baby drowning in a bath tub, there is nothing uncommon here. Drowning is the 3rd most common cause of unintentional death in the U.S. and kills 388,000 people each year worldwide.
 
Fair enough Just K, but we have no proof that they didn't. So how does this lend any weight either way to any hypothesis? We need to look at this holistically. When we do, the case of Shannan Gilbert becomes pretty clear, but the case of the GB4 and the rest of the victims is still a complete mystery that I think we as "websleuths" should be devoting much more attention to at this point (not to take away from the excellent work many here have already done).

We know for an absolute fact that the GB4 and Manorville were victims of one or more serial murderers. No mistake about that.

We know for a fact that Amanda Barthelemy received calls from someone who was very likely Melissa's killer, and by extension, the killer of the other GB4 victims given similar COD and manner of disposal.

We know for a fact that a man named Carman Monaco Jr. made eerily similar lewd and threatening phone calls anonymously from payphones in the city to certain women between 1998-2004 prior to his arrest for stalking.

We know for a fact that Carman Monaco Jr. was ordered by a court to complete psychiatric counseling in 2005, which his own lawyer said "he needed".

We know for a fact that Carman Monaco Jr. was questioned by Suffolk County police in 2004/2005 regarding his possible involvement with the Manorville murders. We also know that police at the time "refused to rule him out as a suspect."

We know for a fact that dismembered portions of the Manorville victims were found along Ocean Parkway, in the immediate vicinity of the GB4.

We know for a fact that at least 1 of the 2 Manorville victims and all of the GB4 victims were prostitutes, which leads us to reasonably believe (but not definitively conclude) that: (1) Jane Doe #6 was likely a prostitute, and (2) there is most likely a single serial killer responsible for all 6 deaths given their final proximity along Ocean Parkway.

So you tell me: Why are we collectively as a group not focused on Carman Monaco Jr. given the above, indisputable facts?

"questioned by SCPD and refused to clear him as a suspect" that statement is the only thing you mentioned that brings CMJ to the case at hand.

"questioned by SCPD and refused to clear him as a suspect" is also true for CPH, JB, etc.

simple logic results in CJM being of no more interest to us than CPH, JB, MP...
 
inspctrgadget,

I agree drowning is a common cause of death; but drowning in a swamp is not that common. Again I ask, has it ever happened on Long Island before?

What is much much more common is dead bodies dumped in swamps by killers.

One has to keep an open mind in these things, keep saying 'what if' 'what are the chances' 'who benefits'.

To me it just does not jive,

You have sex, money, drugs, a 911 call, a woman running for her life and that woman ending up dead. Add in the blank tapes; the inability to find SG's clothes and her body after she disappeared, then they appear months later. We also have PCH calls to MG, Fluke's public statements.

And you want me to believe a crime did not occur relating to SG's death?

Now I know in 2008 a Boston teenage girl wandered away from a party, walked into a nearby swamp and drowned. So yes it does happen. But that poor young girl did not phone 911 saying someone was trying to kill her.


I am only concentrating on the SG case; so CM, your POI may be responsible for the other deaths, and have nothing to do with SG. If CM is guilty I hope you catch him and fast.

Good Luck
 
You have sex, money, drugs, a 911 call, a woman running for her life and that woman ending up dead. Add in the blank tapes; the inability to find SG's clothes and her body after she disappeared, then they appear months later. We also have PCH calls to MG, Fluke's public statements.

And you want me to believe a crime did not occur relating to SG's death?

windsor all those things could be coincidence! :floorlaugh:

you know, like if you robbed a bank then made a phone call saying that you were me, and that you (me) robbed the bank. Then without me knowing about this phone call, I happen to drive to that bank and fall asleep in my car out front while carrying my life savings in cash in a duffel bag. it's just a coincidence.
 
I think to describe the area where Shannan's remains were found as a "swamp" is rather inaccurate. It is a brush and bramble filled area approximately 100 feet from a four lane parkway. Her clothes were found much closer to the residential street then her body was found in reference to the Parkway.

If Shannan ran into the marshy brush, following any of a number of the well worn paths, dropping her belongings and clothes as she went, then I am fairly certain that a dog, who can sniff out a naked skeleton which was placed on the side of the road and had been dead for months and in one case years, could have found at least one of Shannan's personal effects.

40-50* might be chilly but it is not something that kills many people within an hour....at least not that I have ever heard of, anyway.
 
I think to describe the area where Shannan's remains were found as a "swamp" is rather inaccurate. It is a brush and bramble filled area approximately 100 feet from a four lane parkway. Her clothes were found much closer to the residential street then her body was found in reference to the Parkway.

If Shannan ran into the marshy brush, following any of a number of the well worn paths, dropping her belongings and clothes as she went, then I am fairly certain that a dog, who can sniff out a naked skeleton which was placed on the side of the road and had been dead for months and in one case years, could have found at least one of Shannan's personal effects.

40-50* might be chilly but it is not something that kills many people within an hour....at least not that I have ever heard of, anyway.

Especially a dog who had such success in finding so many other remains in the area.:waitasec:
 
“no one made it look like CPH called MG, CPH has already admitted to the calls in a typed up and signed letter to 48 hrs, we also have the police saying they have record of the calls.”

How do we know this for sure? 48 Hours never offered any information in the programs as to how they authenticated the letter's provenance or how they authenticated the doctor's signature. I have written 48 Hours asking them for details on what method/process they used to authenticate the letters and signature but, have not heard back from them yet. Furthermore, 48 Hours did not elaborate on How they received the letter. Was it received via fax, conventional mail, email, hand delivery, messenger service etc.?

In regards to Commissioner Dormer's confirmation that the doctor made a call to Mari Gilbert, his quote was, “yeah our information is that he did”. He did not elaborate on the details of the call or on what information he had.

http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-18559_162-20078763.html?pageNum=2

“Aside from breaking into CPH's house and making that first phone call, the rehab call, there isn't any real possibility of someone synthesizing that phone call and having it come up in two different peoples phone records.”

There are a number of ways this could have been accomplished If the perp did indeed fake the calls and forge a letter with the doctor's signature without physically breaking into the doctor's house. Yes, it involves hacking/cracking into the doctors computer system, cell phone and land-line.

For Example, could the perp have done any of the following:

1. Physically hacked into the doctor's land-line? All the perp would need to exploit landlines are a yellow hat (to blend in), 2 alligator clips connected to the correct wires, a cheap plastic phone and maybe directions from the internet on how to “phreak” landlines. The perp makes the call while connected to the doctor's line and said call is reflected on the phone bill.

http://www.phonelosers.org/article/recording_telephone_calls/

2. Could the perp have hacked/cracked into the doctor's cell-phone? Here are some links into the Possible methods the perp Might have used If he hacked/cracked into the doctor's cell-phone to make any of the calls. There is also information about Caller ID Spoofing in these links:

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.12/phreakers.html

http://www.itworld.com/security/181313/how-hack-cell-phone-voice-mail-better-news-world

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/nee-to-know/culture/just-how-easy-is-phone-hacking/10407

This link includes information on how landlines can be remotely hacked:
http://inspirachel.com/bluetooth/how-to-hack-mobile-phones-with-bluetooth-link-included/

3. If the perp hacked into the doctor's cell-phone this conceivably would give the perp access to his email as well. Perhaps the doctor keeps an “electronic signature” handy within his email? The perp could then create a document such as a letter and send that letter via email or fax.

4. What if the perp gained remote access to the doctor's desktop computer to send a letter to 48 Hours? How could the perp have accomplished that? There are a few ways:

Maybe the perp took a "man in the middle" attack/arp spoofing- like when you went to your local coffee shop and checked your bank account, but didn't notice the SSL cert was changed?

Maybe the perp attacked the web browser with malicious script that runs in the browser and then delivers a payload?

Maybe the perp simply guessed the password to the doctor's WI-fi?

Maybe the perp noticed the doctor didn't change the factory user name and password of his WI-fi router, looked up the router's manufacturer information online and found the corresponding user name and password also available online?

Maybe the perp installed a back door program on the doctor's computer, such as a root-kit, virus, Trojan etc.? There are a lot of scripts available on the internet to accomplish this task but the more sophisticated hacker/crackers make their own viruses, Trojans etc. using C++ or C#. This would give the perp unlimited access to the doctor's computer. He could send any correspondence, document etc. via fax and or/email. The perp could do this from anywhere. This would also mean that the perp need not break into the doctor's house to send a forged letter although that is possible.

How could the perp have avoided detection If he did hack into the doctor's computer? Again, there are a few ways:

Maybe he used a root-kit to hide the program to normal diagnostic tools?

Maybe the perp wiped the system logs on the local system?

Maybe the perp ran the tools directly in memory?

Maybe the perp “killed” any anti-virus software installed on the computer? This can be done in such a way as to make it appear that the anti-virus software is still available and functional.

5. Finally, yes the perp would need to use proxy servers and/or a free down loadable program to render his digital identity untraceable. That is, of course, If he did any of the above at all.

“And if people don't think that first phone call was indeed made from CPH's land line, you should know that BH is claiming that flukeyou breaks into peoples houses in oak beach and uses their phone....holy denial!!!! That statement tells me she knows the first phone call was indeed made from her house, but is understandably in deep denial. “

Who is BH and how could anybody possibly confirm the identity of flukeyou?

I am not quite sure if I understand what you mean in that last portion quoted.

Hi,

I'm a little confused. Are you seriously of the belief that CPH didn't write those letters to 48 Hours admitting that he made two phone calls?

Did CPH deny writing those letters? If not, why would there be any question?! Obviously, if they received two letters from him, talked about this on the program and still have copies of the letters available for perusal online, and CPH did not come forward and deny that he wrote them, then it is safe to say he wrote them. I don't understand why you would even question that. To come up with all these other possibilities as to how someone could make those phone calls posing as him might be an interesting exercise but is otherwise stretching plausibility big-time, IMO.
 
Let me see if I'm any good at the probability game:

1) What are the odds that experienced police investigators have totally screwed up their analysis of how Shannan Gilbert perished, e.g., that she died of accidental causes? (LOW)

2) What are the odds that CPH bumped into two guys walking through a small neighborhood looking to talk to area residents about their missing friend, and subsequently called on the family at their request to offer assistance as a resource to them? (HIGH)

3) What are the odds that Mari Gilbert did actually report the "rehab call" to Suffolk County police, which the police deny ever happened? (LOW)

4) What are the odds that Mari misrepresented or mis-recollected the nature of CPH's call because she wanted the police to pay special attention to him? Note that her reports of this call only came out only after the mainstream news media was involved. Also note that Mari has expounded some pretty wild theories on the LISK site (of course we can't know for an absolute fact that this is her, but based on context of her posts it seems likely that it is her)? (MODERATE TO HIGH)


Truth, I think that when you start heavily weighing evidence like "His father discussed "*advertiser censored*" in a book", and then subsequently updating your belief model accordingly, you end up with a fundamentally flawed prediction.

If you assign more weight to authoritative sources, like police for example, you end up with better predictive capability in your model. Kind of like how the Google Page Rank system works.

Your statement that "the probability that CPH is not the SK is extremely low" is flawed because you've assigned way too much weight to (your) subjective evidence within your model. Bad Bayesian!

I'll take that bet, by the way.

I've made this point a bunch of times already, but there's a lot of information on this site for everyone to sift through, so you probably missed it.

In an early radio interview, made before CPH was really on the map (here or in the media) Sherre Gilbert talks about receiving the phone call from CPH. SHE WAS WITH HER MOTHER WHEN THE CALL CAME IN.

What is the probability that Mari Gilbert would, upon hanging up, relay the conversation incorrectly to her daughter, who was sitting right there? The fact that Sherre was there and immediately was informed of what was said is corroboration for the content of this phone call. It was, in fact, because of this phone call that Sherre says she went to talk to CPH when she and her sister subsequently went to Oak Beach to look for Shannan.

I also disagree with your assessment of the probability of posts signed "Mari Gilbert" on the LISK site actually being written by her as being moderate to high. To me, there is no way you can know that and I personally have a lot of doubt that it is in fact her.

One more thing - LE has not come forward and made a definitive pronouncement as to how Shannan died. Dormer made comments speculating what happened LONG before he should have or even any tests had been done, and we have not heard ANYTHING since. So until we hear for certain, you cannot say that is the conclusion "experience police officers" have come to.
 
It's difficult to judge the quality of any profile before the killer is caught, especially if the profiler does not tell us his reasoning for believing the perpetrator must be one way and not another. I wish the S.T.A.L.K. profiles showed more of the logic behind their conclusions. They make sweeping declarations like "Atlantic City is unrelated" in red ink without giving any justification.

The profile written by our own Peter Brendt explains his thinking clearly and I got a lot more out of reading it, despite finding his theories about the killer's race to be a total mish-mash.

But I can confidently dismiss Brendt's racial ideas because he explains his thought process. If he declared the LISK to be African-American without giving any rationale, there wouldn't be much to work with.


You raised some important and valid points that I had not considered but should of. Thank you for doing so!
 
I don't state assertions unless I have verified them. I don't mind sharing, sorry if I come across as coarse. I attached the snapshots of the letters. 48 hrs did a terrible job securing the information they intended to keep private on the PDF they made available to the public.


Thank you for sharing your documentation. That was very generous and is greatly appreciated!

Just so I'm clear, this forum became aware of the signatures on the letters after you personally removed the redacted portions?

The copies of the letters I have are redacted.
 
Hi,

I'm a little confused. Are you seriously of the belief that CPH didn't write those letters to 48 Hours admitting that he made two phone calls?

Did CPH deny writing those letters? If not, why would there be any question?! Obviously, if they received two letters from him, talked about this on the program and still have copies of the letters available for perusal online, and CPH did not come forward and deny that he wrote them, then it is safe to say he wrote them. I don't understand why you would even question that. To come up with all these other possibilities as to how someone could make those phone calls posing as him might be an interesting exercise but is otherwise stretching plausibility big-time, IMO.


"I'm a little confused. Are you seriously of the belief that CPH didn't write those letters to 48 Hours admitting that he made two phone calls?"

I have presented my theory as one of among many Possibilities to be considered. I don't perceive my theories to be any more or less valid than any of the other ideas offered here at Websleuths.


“Did CPH deny writing those letters?”

I don't know that he has confirmed or denied writing the letters in media. If you have some documentation that supports any confirmation or denial by the doctor, please post the link(s).


“Obviously, if they received two letters from him, talked about this on the program and still have copies of the letters available for perusal online, and CPH did not come forward and deny that he wrote them, then it is safe to say he wrote them.”

Why should I, or anyone else for that matter, assume that 48 Hours properly vetted the authenticity of the letters. 48 Hours never produced information on either program as to how they authenticated the letters or that they Did authenticate the letters. IMHO, that's sloppy and deceptive journalism.


“To come up with all these other possibilities as to how someone could make those phone calls posing as him might be an interesting exercise but is otherwise stretching plausibility big-time, IMO.”

You are entitled to your opinion. If anything I did show how it Might be possible, IMHO.
 
When was that area searched with dogs?
That is one of the biggest questions in my mind right now. Where exactly did LE search immediately after SG went missing? Did Officer M and Blue search? Do any of our amazing map people have a map of the area that was searched for SG?
 
Actually, Blue was supposedly on a training exercise. If Shannan had never disappeared, you might have a different profile pic. Maybe someone from Gilgo Beach? Maybe Carman?

I think I get the word salad joke. Am I too wordy? Clever and funny.
:rocker:
:floorlaugh:

good catch inspctrgadget, tin foil hat killed me too! :floorlaugh:
 
That is one of the biggest questions in my mind right now. Where exactly did LE search immediately after SG went missing? Did Officer M and Blue search? Do any of our amazing map people have a map of the area that was searched for SG?

It wouldn't have mattered if she was at the bottom of the mosquito canal out back in a burlap sack like a bushel of clams waiting for demand to pick up.
 
Thank you for sharing your documentation. That was very generous and is greatly appreciated!

Just so I'm clear, this forum became aware of the signatures on the letters after you personally removed the redacted portions?

The copies of the letters I have are redacted.

I don't know what the "forum" knows, and I can't speak for the "forum". Some people on this forum are enigmas wrapped inside of a sk. I don't remember if I uploaded the pdf with the marker tool removed, that was in july... Anyone who opens the pdf in acrobat reader can pull off the black marker.... smh..
 
I don't know what the "forum" knows, and I can't speak for the "forum". Some people on this forum are enigmas wrapped inside of a sk. I don't remember if I uploaded the pdf with the marker tool removed, that was in july... Anyone who opens the pdf in acrobat reader can pull off the black marker.... smh..



"Some people on this forum are enigmas wrapped inside of a sk."

Don't say that! Now I'm gonna go to bed all paranoid. Thanks.
 
"Some people on this forum are enigmas wrapped inside of a sk."

Don't say that! Now I'm gonna go to bed all paranoid. Thanks.

just cuz ur paranoid doesn't mean he isn't on here. read between the lines, it's all too clear.
 
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