OH OH - Brian Shaffer, 27, Columbus, 1 April 2006 - #3

[itsrak]

I can't get away from the reported stench in the Gateway Theater kitchen. Brian's body really could be wedged in-between the Ugly Tuna and the Gateway Theater building areas. Did this whole building complex have one name? Itsrack, I don't know if you answered this before, but I love your knowledge about this case! Are you a local from the Columbus area and have you been in the building complex?

We need to find a way to get the construction site drawings or photos around the time of April 2006. Than, we could have a true accurate visual map of the routes that Brian might have taken, and if he died due to an accident in or outside the building complex, (presumably the construction site,) we would have a better visual impact of what could have happened.

Considering the short time interval involving Brian last seen on camera and the loss of any whereabouts of him, if he died that night, as I am led to believe, and if he died at or around the construction site, him getting trapped, or slipping and falling happened very, very quickly.

Satch

Yeah, I'd think probability is high that Brian was incapacitated and dying or already dead by the time Clint called and Brian didn't answer. If true, then this was a really simple case that didn't get solved because investigators either inspected the construction site and missed the body or failed to inspect the construction site. And I can see why investigators might have felt it highly unlikely Brian had entered the construction site. After all, why in the world would he have? But consider that 2 things happened: 1) Brian disappeared and 2) Video failed to show Brian exiting the building by conventional route. These two things happening ***together*** should have been recognized as probably being non-coincidental (in other words, as likely being linked) and should have put the investigators onto the construction site in a big way. Why? Because that is an obvious alternative exit route, and is a highly dangerous alternative exit route, especially for an intoxicated individual. One who seemed to have dropped off the face of the Earth.

If Brian's remains are on the construction site, pretty good chance they are within 10 feet of so of the structure housing Ugly Tuna Saloona. Either hung-up/snagged, or buried.

 

[geojeffrey]

Law enforcement, investigators and the family extensively searched the construction site, the area around the Tuna, and the entire neighborhood. Bloodhounds and police dogs assisted with the search, and no results were ever found.

A lot of time and a lot of money was put into the search… It is extremely unlikely, although not impossible, that the body is somewhere buried there. Investigators have pretty much ruled out the possibility that his body is in the area.


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[itsrak]

Law enforcement, investigators and the family extensively searched the construction site, the area around the Tuna, and the entire neighborhood. Bloodhounds and police dogs assisted with the search, and no results were ever found.

A lot of time and a lot of money was put into the search… It is extremely unlikely, although not impossible, that the body is somewhere buried there. Investigators have pretty much ruled out the possibility that his body is in the area.


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It is IMO by far the most likely of all scenarios, all of which are highly unlikely. There is one highly unlikely scenario that, against all odds, is the scenario that came to pass. And several clues point strongly at the construction site scenario, search or no search.

 

[Satch]

Law enforcement, investigators and the family extensively searched the construction site, the area around the Tuna, and the entire neighborhood. Bloodhounds and police dogs assisted with the search, and no results were ever found.

A lot of time and a lot of money was put into the search… It is extremely unlikely, although not impossible, that the body is somewhere buried there. Investigators have pretty much ruled out the possibility that his body is in the area.


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However,

We know that the investigation was not as extensive as it should have been. From the beginning, investigators in my view, did not see this as an unusual case. Therefore, they did the usual, but did not link together the unusual, which iitsrak talks about in post #321. Those two events of bizzareness of Brian not seen on camera leaving the bar and Brian never seen again, strongly suggests that something bad happened to him around the complex.

Remember that this was April Fools weekend, and some LE could have initially thought that this was some kind of joke a drunk college kid played on his friends. Indications are that there wasn't serious searching till much later after the fact, and the most serious searching was done by family and friends, not be LE.

LE probably thinks that Brian is not in the complex and left the area because bureaucratic systems don't like to be embarrassed by having to admit their own mistakes or oversights. I don't think the area was investigated, especially the construction site, as well as it should have been.

Satch

 

[geojeffrey]

It is IMO by far the most likely of all scenarios, all of which are highly unlikely. There is one highly unlikely scenario that, against all odds, is the scenario that came to pass. And several clues point strongly at the construction site scenario, search or no search.

I’m not sure what clues point to the construction site, can you clarify? Or do you just mean the absence of evidence pointing in another direction?

I’m very Glad you’re discussing this, so please don’t think I’m being argumentative…

In my brain, the two most likely scenarios involve either a fight or drug situation with Clint, or Brian simply being the victim of violence while he was trying to make it home.


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[itsrak]

Well, GeoJeffrey, I've already spent a lot of time detailing clues pointing to the construction site - see my prior posts. But here's a brief list:

* by far the key clue - video shows Brian did not leave the Saloona via conventional route that all other customers use. Huge.
* he DID exit the Saloona, presumably within minutes of last being seen, because it was closing time. Had his remains been in the Saloona, indoors, odor would have led to body
*so, he disappeared, but he didn't exit the building via customary route, but he did exit.
* so, how did he exit? Maybe jumped off the balcony. But no one saw that, and that doesn't explain why he was never seen again by people or various other cams.
* seems pretty likely that the means by which he left the building may well be cause for his disappearance, since his disappearance and his departing the building happened right around the very same time.
* and which means of departing the building might potentially have caused his disappearance, caused him never to be seen on any of the many surveillance cams in the area, prevented him from ever using his phone again, prevented him from walking the 5 minutes back to his apt? Well, LE informs that abutting the building housing the Saloona was a construction site that 'would be dangerous to navigate even if sober'. Brian was not sober. Of course, drunk people sometimes engage in inexplicable behaviors and bad decisions and mis-judge things.
* So, Brian leaving the Saloona via the adjacent construction site is a hypothetical. A compelling one. Yes, no direct evidence like a shoe left at the site, etc. No one reported a load bang or a scream. Yeah, there was a bad stench reported at the GatewayTheatre in subsequent years, but that could have been anything. So, a circumstantial case via inference and deductive reasoning.

Yeah, a fight is a <hypothetical> possibility, though AFAIK there is no hint that one happened or that there was any animosity between the two friends. Yeah, drugs are a <hypothetical> possibility, but AFAIK there is no indication Brian was dealing. Did he have an arrest record? Did drugs turn up in his apt? If he was dealing, why would he screw around with working retail at the JCPenney outlet store? Why would he risk arrest and endanger his shot at being a doctor? And neither of these hypotheticals explains why Brian never appeared on a single cam outside the building, never was seen by eyewitnesses outside the building, never used his phone again, didn't take Clint's call, apparently never spoke to another soul........ Radio-silence from 2am in perpetuity - there is a reason why. And there's a reason why Brian was not seen to have left the building. And there's a reason why Brian's body never turned up - or his phone, or his wallet. And those three reasons are actually just one reason. Brian's remains are at the former construction site. IMO.

 

[embufum]

Law enforcement, investigators and the family extensively searched the construction site, the area around the Tuna, and the entire neighborhood. Bloodhounds and police dogs assisted with the search, and no results were ever found.

A lot of time and a lot of money was put into the search… It is extremely unlikely, although not impossible, that the body is somewhere buried there. Investigators have pretty much ruled out the possibility that his body is in the area.


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Exactly, how many people that have this theory that Brian is somehow trapped in a hole or crevasse have ever been there and seen this construction site? The police have and dogs have and I'm sure the guys who worked this area have also been asked where he could possibly be.

 

[embufum]

Never saw this until now.




http://www.nbc4i.com/news/8592335/detail.html


COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Detectives said that they were investigating a tip that a missing Ohio State University medical student was seen at a north Columbus convenience store almost four days after he disappeared.


Police said the tip came from a homeless man and they believe the tip could be credible, NBC 4's Duarte Geraldino reported.


SLIDESHOW: Images Of Brian Shaffer/Case


Brian Shaffer was last seen in front of the Ugly Tuna Saloona, on North High Street in the South Campus Gateway area early on April 2.


According to police, the tipster said that Shaffer was behind a United Dairy Farmers store, located at High Street and 12th Avenue.


"The individual indicated that the man that he had seen was eating a sandwich," said Columbus police detective John Hurst. "He believes it was bought from one of the local restaurants."


Detectives said the homeless man attempted to talk with the man he believed was Shaffer, but the person walked off into the alley.


"(The homeless man) said that he said, 'Hey, people are looking for you,' and the individual really didn't have much of a reaction," Hurst said.


Shaffer's mother died shortly before he disappeared, Geraldino reported. His father, Randy Shaffer, believes that stress might have been too much for the second-year medical student.


"It hasn't been totally checked out yet, but I am going with that positive thought," Randy Shaffer said. "It lifts me up a little bit."


Detectives said that they were working to obtain surveillance footage from the UDF store. They hope that if a tipster saw Brian Shaffer that the cameras did, too.

 

[Satch]

Never saw this until now.




http://www.nbc4i.com/news/8592335/detail.html


COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Detectives said that they were investigating a tip that a missing Ohio State University medical student was seen at a north Columbus convenience store almost four days after he disappeared.


Police said the tip came from a homeless man and they believe the tip could be credible, NBC 4's Duarte Geraldino reported.


SLIDESHOW: Images Of Brian Shaffer/Case


Brian Shaffer was last seen in front of the Ugly Tuna Saloona, on North High Street in the South Campus Gateway area early on April 2.


According to police, the tipster said that Shaffer was behind a United Dairy Farmers store, located at High Street and 12th Avenue.


"The individual indicated that the man that he had seen was eating a sandwich," said Columbus police detective John Hurst. "He believes it was bought from one of the local restaurants."


Detectives said the homeless man attempted to talk with the man he believed was Shaffer, but the person walked off into the alley.


"(The homeless man) said that he said, 'Hey, people are looking for you,' and the individual really didn't have much of a reaction," Hurst said.


Shaffer's mother died shortly before he disappeared, Geraldino reported. His father, Randy Shaffer, believes that stress might have been too much for the second-year medical student.


"It hasn't been totally checked out yet, but I am going with that positive thought," Randy Shaffer said. "It lifts me up a little bit."


Detectives said that they were working to obtain surveillance footage from the UDF store. They hope that if a tipster saw Brian Shaffer that the cameras did, too.

If I recall correctly, this tip was ruled out.

Satch

 

[embufum]

If I recall correctly, this tip was ruled out.

Satch

Yeah I'm sure it was just still makes me wonder.

 

[XPh]

Warning: Long post ahead, but I've been putting a lot of thought into this method of evaluating the possibilities and would appreciate input.

As I've stated before, I agree with itsrak's theories, but I also appreciate GeoJeffrey and others bringing up these questions and stimulating discussion.

As itsrak outlined very nicely, I believe that the circumstantial evidence when combined with logic and a probabilistic approach make an accident/"never left the building" scenario the most likely. Or perhaps more accurately, the least unlikely.

The way I see it, there are four major possible scenarios:

1. Brian left the bar intentionally because wanted to "walk away"
2. Brian was victim of foul play and was removed from the bar by his attacker
3. Brian had an accident within or near the building/construction site, and his body was removed by others as part of a cover up
4. Brian had an accident within or near the building/construction site, but his body was never found

In a vacuum, ALL of these scenarios are unlikely. But, we know something unlikely had to happen that night. So for each scenario, let's look at the reasons WHY each scenario is unlikely. Let's consider the nature and the quantity of unlikely things that would need to happen for each scenario to come to fruition:

1. Brian left the bar intentionally because wanted to "walk away"
Unlikely things that would have to be true in order for this situation to be true:

• Brian would have to find a way to evade cameras while making his exit, despite being intoxicated
• Brian would have to have knowledge of the exits, the cameras, etc.
• Brian would have to have a motive for doing this--which he appears to lack (considering that he could have just walked away from everyone after leaving the bar the usual way)
• Brian would have to have run off without making use of his bank account and other personal resources that someone running off would likely use
• Brian would have to evade law enforcement, family, and other folks searching for him for 12 years and counting

2. Brian was victim of foul play and was removed from the bar by his attacker
Unlikely things that would have to be true in order for this situation to be true:

• Someone would have to have wanted to harm Brian despite LE uncovering no leads pointing toward a motive for someone to do so (despite a 12 year investigation)
• The attacker would need to find a way to lure Brian to a remote area such as the construction site, despite the fact that there was no clear entry point and despite the presence of Columbus Police near the locked (I assume) entrance
• The attacker would need knowledge of the Ugly Tuna surveillance as well as all of the surrounding bars
• The attacker would have to know that Brian was planning to return to Ugly Tuna at that precise time to execute this master plan (OR it was a random act, which is even more unlikely given the sophisticated covering of tracks)
• All involved parties and people with information would need to stay completely silent despite a very large cash reward in place for many years
• Brian's body would have to be hidden so well that LE has been unable to find it despite searching for 12+ years

3. Brian had an accident within or near the building/construction site, and his body was removed by others as part of a cover up
Unlikely things that would have to be true in order for this situation to be true:

• Brian would have had to find a way to wander into the area that the accident occurred (construction site or other remote portion of the building)
• Somebody (likely a non-criminal) would have had to take a considerable risk in concealing a body--a much larger crime--to avoid a liability situation
• The first person to discover the body would have to have enough of a liability concern to take the risk above (in other words, if a construction worker who is not in charge of the site finds the body, they're probably going to go to police because it is probably not them who faces the liability)
• Someone (a non-criminal) would have to transport and hide the body so well that it has avoided detection by LE for 12+ years

4. Brian had an accident within or near the building/construction site, but his body was never found
Unlikely things that would have to be true in order for this situation to be true:

• Brian would have had to find a way to wander into the area that the accident occurred (construction site or other remote portion of the building)
• LE would have had to miss detecting the body despite several extensive searches of the building and construction site

When you really look at it, the things that need to happen for scenario #4 to take place are simply much less of a stretch than the other scenarios. Again, consider the nature and quantity of each. Scenario 4 has the lowest number and least far-fetched. I believe that the components I listed for each scenario above are a fair assessment, but I'd love to hear other thoughts, so please let me know if something is incorrect or has been omitted in your opinion.

Regarding scenario #4, I also think it's possible that it's NOT the construction site, but some other remote corner of the building. I think the construction site could be a red herring, and as a result, LE could have focused so much time, effort, and resources on it that they are overlooking some other very unlikely spot where he actually ended up--the roof, an air duct, some very unusual place within the attached movie theater....etc.

I'd love to hear thoughts from the group.

P.S.--Podcast was excellent. Can't wait for more!

 

[dotr]

Excellent post XPh, thanks!
Sorry for my messy format, adding to the list of unlikely things, but still- something however unlikely must have happened.
speculation.
Adding to the " Brian left the bar intentionally because he wanted to "walk away" theory.

Brian left the bar intentionally ( perhaps the following day) and something happened on the way to wherever he was going.

Brian left the bar unintentionally by misadventure, ie. falling asleep in something that is removed from the club like garbage or band equipment or someone put him in those things or in vehicle, either as an act of malice or as a prank.
maliciously or as a joke

 

[itsrak]

Update: It is said (see vid) that:

1) searching for Brian began no sooner than Monday, 2+ days after he disappeared. Police did take dogs through the construction site - not sure how long after 4/1/06 - and did get 'a couple of hits' but dismissed them (how unfortunate).
2) there was an elevator to the construction site that had a chain in front of it but was apparently accessible. The person who made the vid thinks Brian probably used this elevator. (She also says the construction site was under the Saloona. I'm guessing she's wrong on that, as that is where Mad Mex was located. I think the construction site was the new theatre building immediately east of the Saloona).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bo2e6ce4ck

 

[XPh]

Update: It is said (see vid)

1) searching for Brian began no sooner than Monday, 2+ days after he disappeared. Police did take dogs through the construction site - not sure how long after 4/1/06 - and did get 'a couple of hits' but dismissed them (how unfortunate).
2) there was an elevator to the construction site that had a chain in front of it but was apparently accessible. The person who made the vid thinks Brian probably used this elevator. She also says the construction site was under the Saloona. I'm guessing she's wrong on that, as that is where Mad Mex was located. I think the construction site was the new theatre building immediately east of the Saloona.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bo2e6ce4ck

itsrak--in one of your earlier posts, didn't you find somewhere that the theater opened in November 2005? Wouldn't that mean construction would be completed by the time Brian disappeared? Or did I misunderstand something?

 

[dotr]

itsrak--in one of your earlier posts, didn't you find somewhere that the theater opened in November 2005? Wouldn't that mean construction would be completed by the time Brian disappeared? Or did I misunderstand something?

Referenced on these posts.
https://www.websleuths.com/forums/s...lumbus-1-April-2006-3&p=14029677#post14029677
https://www.websleuths.com/forums/s...lumbus-1-April-2006-3&p=14029758#post14029758

 

[itsrak]

itsrak--in one of your earlier posts, didn't you find somewhere that the theater opened in November 2005? Wouldn't that mean construction would be completed by the time Brian disappeared? Or did I misunderstand something?

Yup. Or that may have been when original theatre owner was founded. Don't know. Need more info. Also, in linked vid, gal, like cop, references active construction site deemed dangerous. Guess that's why there was a chain in front of elevator. Gal in vid also notes that concrete had already been poured by 4/1/06.

 

[Ozoner]

Law enforcement, investigators and the family extensively searched the construction site, the area around the Tuna, and the entire neighborhood. Bloodhounds and police dogs assisted with the search, and no results were ever found.

A lot of time and a lot of money was put into the search… It is extremely unlikely, although not impossible, that the body is somewhere buried there. Investigators have pretty much ruled out the possibility that his body is in the area.

On the contrary, one of the dogs alerted on the construction site: that suggests that Brian's body may have been near by. If his body was stuck or suspended several feet off the ground, or behind a wall or inside some duct work, that could explain why the dog alerted but could not find the body.

It is likely that LE erred by not approaching the construction site from the right direction or by not viewing it from the right angle. For instance, Brian may have jumped off the balcony onto the restaurant roof; if searchers did not duplicate his movements, they could have easily overlooked whatever pitfall claimed his life. Moreover, construction workers may have inadvertently sealed off Brian's body before the site was searched at all.

 

[embufum]

From someone who worked at the bar.


06-10-2017, 01:45 AM#1439 neesaki's Avatar neesaki neesaki is offline
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This is what the poster that had worked at Ugly Tuna Saloona , bighairdontcare, sent me in a pm earlier. Concerning the entrances / exits of the bar. She stated employees only entered through the main entrance and took the elevator to the bar. The same for deliveries, as far as she knows. She remembers no other exits. Just wanted to share this.


We really appreciate your input, bighairdontcare. Thank you, from all of us here. Anything we can get means a lot.
Last edited by neesaki; 06-10-2017 at 01:49 AM.

 

[embufum]

This girl was in close contact with Randy up until her died.


yahamita Posts: 1,508
January 2010
Was able to get ahold of the private investigator, Don, and also had a chance to reconnect with Lori, she takes care of brians page. What I know is the same weirdo from before is at it again. This time the person has started calling Lori out by name, indicating she is a supporter of serial killers and an enabler of psychopaths, so she contacted Crimestoppers with the info to see if they can find the IP addy where he's posting from. Also, I will add a few quotes from Don from last night...his thoughts...


"Clint's attorney has forbidden me to have any contact whatsoever with him. It's my belief that Clint holds the key to this mystery.


It is also my belief that Brian is still alive (but my opinion means nothing if I cannot locate and speak with Brian and inquire as to why he chose to leave in such a manner). I truly believe Brian will someday turn up based on the information discovered by Randy and I. There have been hundreds of adults who for whatever reason decide to completely disappear and start a new life and as hard as it is to believe that it could be accomplished in this day and age it does occur.


So there you have it...no new leads at this point, but some strange activity on his page..

 

[embufum]

9:30 p.m.: Shaffer goes to Ugly Tuna Saloona, leaves after 30 minutes
1:15 a.m.: Shaffer comes up escalators with Clint and Meredith (Brian Shaffer's friends)
1:55 a.m.: Shaffer is seen standing outside to the right of the bar, at top of escalators, talking to two friends. LAST VIDEO OF SHAFFER ANYWHERE
2:09 a.m.: Clint and Meredith leave without Brian.

So at 1:55 Brian walks back into the bar tells Clint and Meredith he's going to talk to the band. From what I can can find out there have been 4 people who verified seeing Brian go back in the bar at around 1:55 am. The police have always said the band never really gave them any useful info so this also puts Brian back in the bar. It took Brian a minute or two to get to the band assuming there was still a decent amount of people in the bar. Remember that the bar closed at 2:30 and last call was at 2:10.

This would also put Brian at the back right corner of the bar "behind" Clint and Meredith and the bars exit. In other words he would have most likely been seen he left the bar again. The stage for the band was also right by the big garage type doors that led to the patio. Even if Brian talked to the band for the just a few minutes it would at least be slightly at 2 am if not longer.

At some point Clint and Meredith wanted to leave and called Brian. I have read that Meredith was the one who called but Clint may have too. Key point coming up!!! I have been in this bar and it is very small. If it was NOT crowded they could have easily seen Brian at the back of the room talking to the band. So I am assuming that there was still quit a bit of people there.

So after calling Brian at maybe around 2:05? They started looking for Brian. Since Brian was talking to the band I'll assume one of them walked back to the band area. Clint also stated that he searched the restroom. After a walk around the bar which included two people and a look in the rest rooms (I read the Meredith looked in the womens restroom too but can't remember where I read this) they decided that Brian must have left. So at 2:09 Clint and Meredith are seen leaving by the escalator.

I'll emphasize again how small this place is. To do a walk around would not take long and I'd find it hard to believe that with 2 people trying to find you, well you would be very hard pressed to be able to hide. UNLESS you slipped under the band stage. If Brian was in the back at some point I think he saw Clint or Meredith coming and he slipped under the stage.

I think he hid under there until the place was closed then opened the garage door to the patio closed it behind him which would have locked it then climbed over the railing to the roof and then the ground below. One of the detectives did mention that Brian could have left this way and could have been undetected. With this statement I'll assume he meant that in that particular area there were no cameras.

Why would Brian do all this? I have no idea but we do know that Brian talked about running away and this was BEFORE his mom died. Taking into account his mothers dead I don't find it hard to believe he walked away and according to Clint's attorney and Randy and the detective he hired they don't either. Clint's attorney said one of the detectives led him to believe that Brian was still alive. That's 4 key people that think Brian is alive. They obviously know something there are not telling us.