OH OH - Brian Shaffer, 27, Columbus, 1 April 2006 - #3

[embufum]

Good points,

Why act so mysterious about it and worse, put your life at risk? Unless Brian was so drunk that he did not have a sense of proper judgment and thinking. I think we mostly agree that he died that night. The disagreement is if he died, how he died? Where is his body? And if it wasn't foul play, why did he do it? And do so to avoid detection for twelve years?

Do you think anybody knows what happened and is not talking? Or do you think that this is a true mystery for all? Do you think Brian Shaffer will ever be found? Alive or remains?

Satch

IMO if he did die that night it wasn't anywhere in that building. Det Hurst said they searched that building from top to bottom. Those were his exact words. Searching that building would have required the help of a lot of people including people who worked there and knew the place very well. They also used dogs. The only time they got a hit was once when he said the dogs led them out a side door and towards a Wendy's. He did say that it wasn't 100% sure if the scent was Brian's. The cadaver dogs from what I remember got no hits.

 

[XPh]

Also you say that it's far less likely that he would have hid under the stage. Part of your reason is because he hasn't been seen in 12 years. To me that makes no sense. I mean how do those two things relate to each other? If Brian hid under the stage then went over the balcony he could have been killed and never been seen again. Makes little difference were he was before he was murdered.

The two things relate because tour theory ends with him never being found. All of the proposed theories are inherently unlikely, but your theory has two very unlikely event. 1) He managed to hide under the stage and exit the ugly tuna in a very unusual manner without anyone knowing or picking him up on camera in the surrounding area AND 2) he hadn’t been heard from since 1:55am. There has been no trace of him - alive or dead - which is incredibly difficult. Certainly harder than wandering into a very hidden location by accident, which has precedence (see the two cases I just posted about a few posts ago).

Think about it: how unlikely would you say it is for some drunk person on any given night to hide until after closing, find a way out, jump from a balcony, leaving no evidence and no one seeing. Next, how unlikely is it for someone to go missing for 12 years with literally not a trace.

Now multiply those two probabilities together. That’s how unlikely that scenario is.

 

[neesaki]

IMO, it’s no stretch of the imagination at all for a healthy, fit young man to exit via the balcony of a building like the Ugly Tuna, especially if he’s trying to give someone the slip or leave without being seen. I think this is the most plausible explanation. The question for me is why, and what happened after that.

 

[itsrak]

I just listened to the recent (4/11/2018) Comeback Podcast in which Lead Detective Hurst (lead detective in 2006 and still today) was interviewed.

http://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-57xfq-8f12c5

Found it interesting that Det. Hurst :

1) says that the Gateway Theatre building was 'searched top to bottom'
2) makes clear that the 'construction area' was distinct from the Gateway Theatre building and was in fact apparently below the Saloona
3) as to 'the construction area', states that (10:26 in) 'they were puttin' in a health store in the lower area in behind the restaurants and the downstairs businesses was completely dug up'...'it was only boarded up by the doorways with chain-lock plywood doors' ... 'somebody could of squeezed in or out of those locations'. Unless I missed it, Det. Hurst in the podcast did not indicate whether the 'construction area' was ever searched
4) states that 'the basic indication is that somehow Brian got down into the construction area and most likely got exited out of there'
5) as regards to Clint, observed that he'd cooperated until polygraphs were sought, noted that he then retained an attorney, and opined that 'very few attorneys would recommend their client take a polygraph'

Thx to Comeback Podcast and Det. Hurst.

 

[embufum]

The two things relate because tour theory ends with him never being found. All of the proposed theories are inherently unlikely, but your theory has two very unlikely event. 1) He managed to hide under the stage and exit the ugly tuna in a very unusual manner without anyone knowing or picking him up on camera in the surrounding area AND 2) he hadn’t been heard from since 1:55am. There has been no trace of him - alive or dead - which is incredibly difficult. Certainly harder than wandering into a very hidden location by accident, which has precedence (see the two cases I just posted about a few posts ago).

Think about it: how unlikely would you say it is for some drunk person on any given night to hide until after closing, find a way out, jump from a balcony, leaving no evidence and no one seeing. Next, how unlikely is it for someone to go missing for 12 years with literally not a trace.

Now multiply those two probabilities together. That’s how unlikely that scenario is.

So you are saying that since Brian has not been seen in 12 years he's dead and inside the building.

 

[embufum]

I just listened to the recent (4/11/2018) Comeback Podcast in which Lead Detective Hurst (lead detective in 2006 and still today) was interviewed.

http://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-57xfq-8f12c5

Found it interesting that Det. Hurst :

1) says that the Gateway Theatre building was 'searched top to bottom'
2) makes clear that the 'construction area' was distinct from the Gateway Theatre building and was in fact apparently below the Saloona
3) as to 'the construction area', states that (10:26 in) 'they were puttin' in a health store in the lower area in behind the restaurants and the downstairs businesses was completely dug up'...'it was only boarded up by the doorways with chain-lock plywood doors' ... 'somebody could of squeezed in or out of those locations'. Unless I missed it, Det. Hurst in the podcast did not indicate whether the 'construction area' was ever searched
4) states that 'the basic indication is that somehow Brian got down into the construction area and most likely got exited out of there'
5) as regards to Clint, observed that he'd cooperated until polygraphs were sought, noted that he then retained an attorney, and opined that 'very few attorneys would recommend their client take a polygraph'

Thx to Comeback Podcast and Det. Hurst.

I'll try to find a photo that indicates how the construction was being done. Basically from the way I see it behind all the stores is a walkway. Kind of like a long hallway that one could have access to each store. At the very far left of the building (The Tuna is to the far right on top) there was a store going in there. So that store front was boarded up and I think that's where Hurst said Brian could have squeezed through.

So that whole entire hallway was dug up. I am pretty sure that they took dogs through there. He mentioned that dogs had been used on more that one occasion and both kinds. Cadaver dogs never picked up on anything by the scent dogs did.

 

[embufum]

Here's pics that show what was going on with the construction area.

 

[PinkPrincessPoop]

Will the manner of Brian's disappearance really be considered "likely?" He disappeared in a very highly unusual manner, I don't think the resolution of it will necessarily be considered a "likely" typical scenario (if there even is one at all).

 

[itsrak]

I personally think it is likely that Brian died in one particular of myriad potential highly unlikely ways, shortly after walking back into the building and then for whatever reason - like the detective suggests - winding up in the construction area. And then maybe involved in an accident. Perhaps in the area that the detective noted could be 'squeezed into' and 'was completely dug up'. You'd think investigators would have found him. But, maybe not.

 

[neesaki]

Considering where the construction exit is located, in plain sight and just steps away from the escalators and where the officers were standing, I wonder how Brian could have gone out that exit without attracting attention. The chain on the door must have been fairly long for a guy his size to squeeze through without making a sound.

From what I understand , it's the doors that are directly across the door with the Exit sign over it. Is that correct ?


https://www.google.com/maps/@39.994...E46J9yhq8sDYsOGrQCLIB!2e4!3e12!7i10600!8i5300

 

[XPh]

So you are saying that since Brian has not been seen in 12 years he's dead and inside the building.

I am saying that scenario best explains why he hasn’t been heard from since AND why he isn’t seen leaving all in one package. It’s very difficult to completely disappear for 12 years without a trace—whether alive or dead (even moreso alive than dead).

What it boils down to is that any scenario that involves him getting out of the bar involves at least TWO very unlikely things:
-He would have to have exited the bar undetected under highly unusual circumstances
-He would have to have evaded detection for 12 years once out

These are two independent events that on their own would be very unlikely, but combined they become incredibly less likely.

We all agree that something unlikely happened. No one is arguing that. But the only theory that accounts for both his strange disappearance from the bar AND the lack of any evidence of his existence for 12 years is some sort of incredibly well concealed accident in or near the building.

Yes, that theory is unlikely too, but it hinges on ONE unlikely event, not TWO.

One could argue that finding a way into the construction site and evading detection in the site are two independent events, but that’s why I think he didn’t enter by the regular entry doors. I think the way he entered (or maybe tried to enter but never got there) was some very unusual way that directly led to his demise (and being so well hidden). If we could figure out what unusual entry points he could have considered....places where he could become trapped, etc.....then we may have our answer. This is where I think things like duct work really enters the discussion IMO, and again there is precedent for that happening (see recent post re: Jamie Minor).

 

[embufum]

I am saying that scenario best explains why he hasn’t been heard from since AND why he isn’t seen leaving all in one package. It’s very difficult to completely disappear for 12 years without a trace—whether alive or dead (even moreso alive than dead).

What it boils down to is that any scenario that involves him getting out of the bar involves at least TWO very unlikely things:
-He would have to have exited the bar undetected under highly unusual circumstances
-He would have to have evaded detection for 12 years once out

These are two independent events that on their own would be very unlikely, but combined they become incredibly less likely.

We all agree that something unlikely happened. No one is arguing that. But the only theory that accounts for both his strange disappearance from the bar AND the lack of any evidence of his existence for 12 years is some sort of incredibly well concealed accident in or near the building.

Yes, that theory is unlikely too, but it hinges on ONE unlikely event, not TWO.

One could argue that finding a way into the construction site and evading detection in the site are two independent events, but that’s why I think he didn’t enter by the regular entry doors. I think the way he entered (or maybe tried to enter but never got there) was some very unusual way that directly led to his demise (and being so well hidden). If we could figure out what unusual entry points he could have considered....places where he could become trapped, etc.....then we may have our answer. This is where I think things like duct work really enters the discussion IMO, and again there is precedent for that happening (see recent post re: Jamie Minor).

I totally see your point, but you just can't assume there are other ways into a construction site. You say he didn't enter by the "regular entry doors". What other doors are there? If you are just guessing there may be other doors but are basing a whole theory on it then that theory with all due respect holds no weight.

Also I can name plenty of missing persona cases where people have been gone and found over 40 years later. Even Det. Hurst named one of a newscaster in Columbus who was found in Texas 30 years after he went missing. Never told anyone and his wife had no clue turns out he just wanted to start a new life.

None of us here know Brian and even if we did it happens all the time. People say well Brian didn't carry cash, he did do this or that. How do we know what he was doing?

We are finally starting to find out a little more about this case. For example, for years everyone argued that Brian never reentered the bar. We finally know now that he did reenter.

Even though we have no pics we finally have an understanding of what the construction area was like and how it was laid out.

We also know that cadaver dogs and scent dogs were used multiple times to track Brian.

We know that a scent was picked up that led out a side door and went towards Wendy's. Hurst said it wasn't 100% that it was Brian.

The pod cast was really good at answering some of these vital questions.

What I do fine interesting is what Hurst wouldn't answer. I think sometimes you can learn more by what isn't said. For example, he wouldn't comment much about the break in to Brian's apartment. He wouldn't comment on what Meridith said other then she passed the polygraph. He wouldn't comment on what Brian and the 2 girls talked about other then they exchanged phone numbers. Hurst did comment that Brian indicated to them that he was going back in the bar.

 

[embufum]

Considering where the construction exit is located, in plain sight and just steps away from the escalators and where the officers were standing, I wonder how Brian could have gone out that exit without attracting attention. The chain on the door must have been fairly long for a guy his size to squeeze through without making a sound.

From what I understand , it's the doors that are directly across the door with the Exit sign over it. Is that correct ?


https://www.google.com/maps/@39.994...E46J9yhq8sDYsOGrQCLIB!2e4!3e12!7i10600!8i5300

Yes that's the door. Next time I'm there I just may go through it and play dumb when the alarm goes off.

It would seem unlikely that he got past so many people.

 

[Satch]

I am saying that scenario best explains why he hasn’t been heard from since AND why he isn’t seen leaving all in one package. It’s very difficult to completely disappear for 12 years without a trace—whether alive or dead (even moreso alive than dead).

What it boils down to is that any scenario that involves him getting out of the bar involves at least TWO very unlikely things:
-He would have to have exited the bar undetected under highly unusual circumstances
-He would have to have evaded detection for 12 years once out

These are two independent events that on their own would be very unlikely, but combined they become incredibly less likely.

We all agree that something unlikely happened. No one is arguing that. But the only theory that accounts for both his strange disappearance from the bar AND the lack of any evidence of his existence for 12 years is some sort of incredibly well concealed accident in or near the building.

Yes, that theory is unlikely too, but it hinges on ONE unlikely event, not TWO.

One could argue that finding a way into the construction site and evading detection in the site are two independent events, but that’s why I think he didn’t enter by the regular entry doors. I think the way he entered (or maybe tried to enter but never got there) was some very unusual way that directly led to his demise (and being so well hidden). If we could figure out what unusual entry points he could have considered....places where he could become trapped, etc.....then we may have our answer. This is where I think things like duct work really enters the discussion IMO, and again there is precedent for that happening (see recent post re: Jamie Minor).

Right,

The most likely scenario out of all the strangeness with this case is that Brian is dead. Why can't they find his body?

1.) It's trapped in a very well concealed area that is so hidden that he may never be found.

2.) We now know that Brian went back into the bar. If he went out, it is very unlikely that he was missed. so something must have happened to Brian in that building complex.

3.) My belief is LE does not want to say Brian is in the building complex, because they don't want to admit their own mistakes that some areas could have been missed. A sample, why wasn't the scented track out the door to Wendy's followed up more? Why doesn't Detective Hurst believe that scent hit is Brian?

4.) It is believed that Brian was far more drunk than shown on that grainy video. Fact: Drunk people due stupid things because their sense of thinking and judgment is impaired by alcohol. Sometimes this is far worse than ever realized.

5.) Brian was known to talk to the bands in bars. According to Clint, Brian was known to "mouth off when drunk". Brian was known to leave groups in public to go exploring and wonder away. Brian may have been a womanizer.

6.) Most likely: He found something of interest to him to explore in the complex, sidestepped and fell to his death, or got trapped and couldn't get out. He walked smack into danger very quickly in some out of site place.

Interesting: What would have happened if search crews with nightlights had begun searching that complex immediatey? In other words, not waiting til Monday. Critical evidence could have been moved or destroyed that might have solved this case much earlier.

Satch

 

[XPh]

I totally see your point, but you just can't assume there are other ways into a construction site. You say he didn't enter by the "regular entry doors". What other doors are there? If you are just guessing there may be other doors but are basing a whole theory on it then that theory with all due respect holds no weight.

I am not suggesting that there were "other doors." I am suggesting that there could have been some other hidden / highly unusual entry points that Brian somehow accessed. Something that was not intended to be a passage way, but Brian ended up there. I have given examples of things that come to mind in numerous posts, and it's not "other doors." Again--a trip to the roof followed by a fall into a crevice in the construction site, trapped in duct work. These are a few I can think of, but I think there could be many others (if they were obvious, someone would have thought of them--I think it could take a lot of "thinking outside the box"). And there is precedent for this type of thing happening in missing persons cases.

 

[embufum]

I am not suggesting that there were "other doors." I am suggesting that there could have been some other hidden / highly unusual entry points that Brian somehow accessed. Something that was not intended to be a passage way, but Brian ended up there. I have given examples of things that come to mind in numerous posts, and it's not "other doors." Again--a trip to the roof followed by a fall into a crevice in the construction site, trapped in duct work. These are a few I can think of, but I think there could be many others (if they were obvious, someone would have thought of them--I think it could take a lot of "thinking outside the box"). And there is precedent for this type of thing happening in missing persons cases.

Again, that's a lot of assumptions. It sounds like you are describing a haunted castle with hidden rooms.

 

[neesaki]

Yes that's the door. Next time I'm there I just may go through it and play dumb when the alarm goes off.

It would seem unlikely that he got past so many people.

I thought I remembered the construction exit didn’t have an alarm. But yes, the other exit would have one. Still, seems he would have drawn someone’s attention going out a chained doorway.

 

[embufum]

Right,

The most likely scenario out of all the strangeness with this case is that Brian is dead. Why can't they find his body?

1.) It's trapped in a very well concealed area that is so hidden that he may never be found.

2.) We now know that Brian went back into the bar. If he went out, it is very unlikely that he was missed. so something must have happened to Brian in that building complex.

3.) My belief is LE does not want to say Brian is in the building complex, because they don't want to admit their own mistakes that some areas could have been missed. A sample, why wasn't the scented track out the door to Wendy's followed up more? Why doesn't Detective Hurst believe that scent hit is Brian?

4.) It is believed that Brian was far more drunk than shown on that grainy video. Fact: Drunk people due stupid things because their sense of thinking and judgment is impaired by alcohol. Sometimes this is far worse than ever realized.

5.) Brian was known to talk to the bands in bars. According to Clint, Brian was known to "mouth off when drunk". Brian was known to leave groups in public to go exploring and wonder away. Brian may have been a womanizer.

6.) Most likely: He found something of interest to him to explore in the complex, sidestepped and fell to his death, or got trapped and couldn't get out. He walked smack into danger very quickly in some out of site place.

Interesting: What would have happened if search crews with nightlights had begun searching that complex immediatey? In other words, not waiting til Monday. Critical evidence could have been moved or destroyed that might have solved this case much earlier.

Satch

I'd like to know if the construction crew was off on the weekends If so it didn't matter waiting till Monday.

 

[embufum]

I thought I remembered the construction exit didn’t have an alarm. But yes, the other exit would have one. Still, seems he would have drawn someone’s attention going out a chained doorway.

Far as I know the construction doors were just plywood doors with chains holding them shut no alarms. The attention I would think would be when he went into the door by the bar. The exit door which was way at the other end of the building shouldn't have been to hard to get out of with out being seen.

 

[neesaki]

Far as I know the construction doors were just plywood doors with chains holding them shut no alarms. The attention I would think would be when he went into the door by the bar. The exit door which was way at the other end of the building shouldn't have been to hard to get out of with out being seen.

You must mean the door with the exit sign above it. Which is across that hallway from the construction exit door, right ? But yes, if that exit door it would have had an alarm. But that door wouldn’t have led to the construction site, would it? I could be getting a little confused, lol.