OH OH - Brian Shaffer, 27, Columbus, 1 April 2006 - #3

[Ozoner]

'.......scenario, in which his phone was buried on his person around 2am on 4/1/06, in the 'completely dug up' construction area, neatly explains why his phone always went straight to voicemail (dirt blocks signal)"
Brian is seen on camera talking to Amber and Brightan at around 1:55. Clint reportedly calls Brian soon after that, around 2:00 because he and Meredith can't find him.
So the most correct and "neatest" explanation for the phone going straight to voicemail is that in 5 minutes time Brian left the bar, entered the construction area, fell down a hole or shaft and was so covered in dirt his phone couldn't receive a signal and went straight to voicemail. All in 5 minutes. So there is no way he declined a call, or his phone was dead, or he was actually still in the bar but in a bad reception spot. Brian falling down a shaft and being smothered by so much dirt his phone can't receive a signal is the only explanation. I think the timeline is way too tight on that.
Again I would love to know what the construction site looked like and if it was this gaping abyss of deadly holes and shafts that could swallow people up.

EBM
Not the only explanation, just far and away the most logical one.
Falling into a hole or trench would take a fraction of a second, so your comment that the timeline is too tight for that doesn't withstand scrutiny.

 

[MysteryMaven]

EBM
Not the only explanation, just far and away the most logical one.
Falling into a hole or trench would take a fraction of a second, so your comment that the timeline is too tight for that doesn't withstand scrutiny.

From 1:55 (seen on camera) to 2:00 (Clint calls and says phone goes to VM) Brian exits the bar, wanders into a construction site and falls deep into a hole that has never been confirmed to exist. And that is why his phone goes straight to voicemail. How is that the most logical explanation for Brian’s phone going to voicemail. It’s ridiculous. I actually can’t deal with this thread anymore. See ya.

 

[dotr]

 

[Ozoner]

From 1:55 (seen on camera) to 2:00 (Clint calls and says phone goes to VM) Brian exits the bar, wanders into a construction site and falls deep into a hole that has never been confirmed to exist. And that is why his phone goes straight to voicemail. How is that the most logical explanation for Brian’s phone going to voicemail. It’s ridiculous. I actually can’t deal with this thread anymore. See ya.

Maybe I need to walk you through the evidence bit by bit so that it's easier for you to understand.
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You can't look at the fact that the phone went to voicemail in a vacuum. In other words, you can't seek an explanation for that fact without considering the other known facts of the case.
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If all we knew about a given case was that a phone went straight to voicemail when called, then all we could say was that the phone was turned off, the battery died, or the person was out of range of a tower.
-
But wait--this was in 2006. I shouldn't have to mention this, but the phones in use in 2006 were not like the smart phones of today, which need to be recharged constantly. The phones from that era could run for several days on one charge, so the odds are against the phone's battery having died at that moment.
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If someone rejects a call, the caller hears at least one ring before the call goes to voicemail, so that option can be eliminated.
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So far, the two equally likely possibilities are that the phone was turned off or that it was on but not receiving a signal.
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That's where we'd be if we didn't know anything else about the case. But we do.
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We know that Brian could not be seen on camera exiting the building, whereas every other person known to have entered could also be seen on camera exiting.
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We know that none of the cameras from surrounding businesses captured Brian on video, and they should have if he had exited via the freight elevator, which was suggested as a possible method of exit.
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We know that in all likelihood, Brian entered the construction area.
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We know that the construction area was described as completely dug up.
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We know that any building the size of the one we're talking about would have had many deep holes and trenches for footings/pilings at an early enough stage of construction.
-
We know that oftentimes such holes and trenches extend well below the water table, which means that if someone were to fall into one if them, that person would be submerged and not visible to workers looking into the hole or trench.
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We know that the construction area wasn't searched immediately and that some work was likely completed between the time Brian vanished and the time the construction area was searched. That work could have included filling holes and trenches with gravel and cement.
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We know that there has been no evidence of life from Brian during the twelve years that he's been missing--"radio silence," as someone put it.
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When you look at the totality of the information, it becomes clear that in this case, Brian's having met an accidental death in the construction area by falling into a hole or becoming trapped in an enclosed space is the most logical explanation for why that particular phone went straight to voicemail on that particular night.
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It is the one scenario that seamlessly explains all of the evidence and all of the mysterious circumstances surrounding the case.
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If you're unable to follow that reasoning by reading on your own, I would be happy to walk you through it more slowly via PM.

 

[dotr]

Brian was referenced in a recent article about a mp although they say there is no apparent connection. But what if there is? speculation, imo.
OH - OH - Andrew 'Andy' Chapman, 32, Columbus, 8 Dec 2006

 

[embufum]

Maybe I need to walk you through the evidence bit by bit so that it's easier for you to understand.
-
You can't look at the fact that the phone went to voicemail in a vacuum. In other words, you can't seek an explanation for that fact without considering the other known facts of the case.

Why not? Maybe Brian shut his phone off? Clint and Meridith left the bar and were seen going down the escalator at 2:01 am. They were on camera leaving the parking garage at 2:09. Amber and Brigtan both said that the 3 of them walked to the entrance of the bar after they went off camera and Brightan went to the rest room while Brian and Amber talked. Brightan came back and they both said goodbye to Brian and went down the escalator. From the time Brian went off camera at 1:55 am and Clint and Mereideth left was roughly 6 minutes. This means that Clint and Meredith were looking for Brian in the bar while Brian was standing by the doorway off camera talking to Amber while Brightan was making a trip to the bathroom. If Clint was calling Brian while searching the bar then Brian had already shut his phone off or Clint was mistaken about those calls going straight to VM and Brian was ignoring the calls. There had to be less than a minute or two from the time that Amber and Brightan left and Clint and Meredith went down the escalator. It's possibly that Brian saw Clint coming after the girls left or even while they were about to leave and was not wanting to leave with them because he had plans he didn't want them to know about.
-
If all we knew about a given case was that a phone went straight to voicemail when called, then all we could say was that the phone was turned off, the battery died, or the person was out of range of a tower.

Any calls that they made inside the bar looking for Brian were done while Brian was still outside with bar while Brian was talking to Amber and Brightan off view of the camera. Brian's phone was either shut off or he was ignoring the calls. Meredith made one call to Brian while outside the bar using Clint's phone and it was mentioned that it went to VM. Meredith left a message asking "Where the hell are you?"

-

But wait--this was in 2006. I shouldn't have to mention this, but the phones in use in 2006 were not like the smart phones of today, which need to be recharged constantly. The phones from that era could run for several days on one charge, so the odds are against the phone's battery having died at that moment.
-
If someone rejects a call, the caller hears at least one ring before the call goes to voicemail, so that option can be eliminated.
-
So far, the two equally likely possibilities are that the phone was turned off or that it was on but not receiving a signal.
-
That's where we'd be if we didn't know anything else about the case. But we do.
-
We know that Brian could not be seen on camera exiting the building, whereas every other person known to have entered could also be seen on camera exiting.

You're half correct. We know that everyone who entered the bar using the stairs was seen exiting the same way. Once they left the building we do not know if everyone would have been seen by the cameras outside. We can't assume that all those people would have been easily tracked.
-
We know that none of the cameras from surrounding businesses captured Brian on video, and they should have if he had exited via the freight elevator, which was suggested as a possible method of exit.
-
We know that in all likelihood, Brian entered the construction area.
-
We know that the construction area was described as completely dug up.
-
We know that any building the size of the one we're talking about would have had many deep holes and trenches for footings/pilings at an early enough stage of construction.

The building was NOT in early stages on construction. Large supporting beams would have had to be finished for the fact the upper level was open to the public.The structural integrity of that building would not support the upper floors to be open for business in early stages of construction.
-
We know that oftentimes such holes and trenches extend well below the water table, which means that if someone were to fall into one if them, that person would be submerged and not visible to workers looking into the hole or trench.
-
We know that the construction area wasn't searched immediately and that some work was likely completed between the time Brian vanished and the time the construction area was searched. That work could have included filling holes and trenches with gravel and cement.

All speculation on your part. You are assuming the Brian fell into a deep hole and then assuming that hole was covered up in time for the dogs and police to search. There is zero evidence to support your claim.
-
We know that there has been no evidence of life from Brian during the twelve years that he's been missing--"radio silence," as someone put it.
-
When you look at the totality of the information, it becomes clear that in this case, Brian's having met an accidental death in the construction area by falling into a hole or becoming trapped in an enclosed space is the most logical explanation for why that particular phone went straight to voicemail on that particular night.
-
It is the one scenario that seamlessly explains all of the evidence and all of the mysterious circumstances surrounding the case.
-
If you're unable to follow that reasoning by reading on your own, I would be happy to walk you through it more slowly via PM.

 

[XPh]

I'm at the point of replying to replies here--sorry that I don't know of a better way to quote/format this.

----

Ozoner's comment: You can't look at the fact that the phone went to voicemail in a vacuum. In other words, you can't seek an explanation for that fact without considering the other known facts of the case.

embufum's reply: Why not? Maybe Brian shut his phone off? Clint and Meridith left the bar and were seen going down the escalator at 2:01 am. They were on camera leaving the parking garage at 2:09. Amber and Brigtan both said that the 3 of them walked to the entrance of the bar after they went off camera and Brightan went to the rest room while Brian and Amber talked. Brightan came back and they both said goodbye to Brian and went down the escalator. From the time Brian went off camera at 1:55 am and Clint and Mereideth left was roughly 6 minutes. This means that Clint and Meredith were looking for Brian in the bar while Brian was standing by the doorway off camera talking to Amber while Brightan was making a trip to the bathroom. If Clint was calling Brian while searching the bar then Brian had already shut his phone off or Clint was mistaken about those calls going straight to VM and Brian was ignoring the calls. There had to be less than a minute or two from the time that Amber and Brightan left and Clint and Meredith went down the escalator. It's possibly that Brian saw Clint coming after the girls left or even while they were about to leave and was not wanting to leave with them because he had plans he didn't want them to know about.

My comment: embufum, 1.) I've not seen any confirmed timeline information anywhere that matches these details that you often include in posts like these. Can you please provide a source that you've referenced for this? 2.) The amount of speculation in this explanation is borderline comical for someone who goes on to accuse another poster of "all speculation on your part" (see below).

-------

Ozoner's comment: If all we knew about a given case was that a phone went straight to voicemail when called, then all we could say was that the phone was turned off, the battery died, or the person was out of range of a tower.

embufum's reply: Any calls that they made inside the bar looking for Brian were done while Brian was still outside with bar while Brian was talking to Amber and Brightan off view of the camera. Brian's phone was either shut off or he was ignoring the calls. Meredith made one call to Brian while outside the bar using Clint's phone and it was mentioned that it went to VM. Meredith left a message asking "Where the hell are you?"

My comment: Again, you seem to state this as fact that Brian was outside the Bar when Clint was calling, but can you please cite a source on this?

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Ozoner's comment: We know that Brian could not be seen on camera exiting the building, whereas every other person known to have entered could also be seen on camera exiting.

embufum's reply: You're half correct. We know that everyone who entered the bar using the stairs was seen exiting the same way. Once they left the building we do not know if everyone would have been seen by the cameras outside. We can't assume that all those people would have been easily tracked.

My comment: Embufum, which half of Ozoner's comment is incorrect??? Frankly I don't see what your reply has to do with anything that Ozoner said, and I certainly don't see any evidence that he said something incorrect.

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Ozoner's comment: We know that any building the size of the one we're talking about would have had many deep holes and trenches for footings/pilings at an early enough stage of construction.

embufum's reply: The building was NOT in early stages on construction. Large supporting beams would have had to be finished for the fact the upper level was open to the public.The structural integrity of that building would not support the upper floors to be open for business in early stages of construction.

My comment: In fairness, this is the closest thing to a valid point that you make in this entire post, as the building itself had been standing and operational for at least a year or two. But it's a large building, and I imagine it was probably completed in stages to an extent. I agree that it seems unlikely there would be numerous deep trenches--but who knows? If not a trench, I'd imagine there are numerous other crevices, pits, or other potentially treacherous areas where a drunk person could stumble into and become concealed--and with active construction occurring, it seems at least remotely plausible that the construction may have continued on without realizing this to be the case, resulting in Brian remaining concealed to this day.

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Ozoner's comment: We know that the construction area wasn't searched immediately and that some work was likely completed between the time Brian vanished and the time the construction area was searched. That work could have included filling holes and trenches with gravel and cement.

embufum's reply: All speculation on your part. You are assuming the Brian fell into a deep hole and then assuming that hole was covered up in time for the dogs and police to search. There is zero evidence to support your claim.

My comment: OF COURSE he is speculating!! That's why he said "could have..."! We are ALL speculating to an extent on this board because the amount of confirmed information we have is minimal. We take the little information we have, and we propose scenarios that fit that limited information, and we consider which scenario seems most likely based on the few details we know. We are all speculating to varying degrees.

What is actually astounding is that you single out people for "speculation" when it doesn't fit your desired outcome, but you ALSO speculate as much (if not way more) than anyone on this board--including at times speculation based on information that I would consider questionable without citing a reliable source.

 

[Ozoner]

I'm at the point of replying to replies here--sorry that I don't know of a better way to quote/format this.

----

Ozoner's comment: You can't look at the fact that the phone went to voicemail in a vacuum. In other words, you can't seek an explanation for that fact without considering the other known facts of the case.

embufum's reply: Why not? Maybe Brian shut his phone off? Clint and Meridith left the bar and were seen going down the escalator at 2:01 am. They were on camera leaving the parking garage at 2:09. Amber and Brigtan both said that the 3 of them walked to the entrance of the bar after they went off camera and Brightan went to the rest room while Brian and Amber talked. Brightan came back and they both said goodbye to Brian and went down the escalator. From the time Brian went off camera at 1:55 am and Clint and Mereideth left was roughly 6 minutes. This means that Clint and Meredith were looking for Brian in the bar while Brian was standing by the doorway off camera talking to Amber while Brightan was making a trip to the bathroom. If Clint was calling Brian while searching the bar then Brian had already shut his phone off or Clint was mistaken about those calls going straight to VM and Brian was ignoring the calls. There had to be less than a minute or two from the time that Amber and Brightan left and Clint and Meredith went down the escalator. It's possibly that Brian saw Clint coming after the girls left or even while they were about to leave and was not wanting to leave with them because he had plans he didn't want them to know about.

My comment: embufum, 1.) I've not seen any confirmed timeline information anywhere that matches these details that you often include in posts like these. Can you please provide a source that you've referenced for this? 2.) The amount of speculation in this explanation is borderline comical for someone who goes on to accuse another poster of "all speculation on your part" (see below).

-------

Ozoner's comment: If all we knew about a given case was that a phone went straight to voicemail when called, then all we could say was that the phone was turned off, the battery died, or the person was out of range of a tower.

embufum's reply: Any calls that they made inside the bar looking for Brian were done while Brian was still outside with bar while Brian was talking to Amber and Brightan off view of the camera. Brian's phone was either shut off or he was ignoring the calls. Meredith made one call to Brian while outside the bar using Clint's phone and it was mentioned that it went to VM. Meredith left a message asking "Where the hell are you?"

My comment: Again, you seem to state this as fact that Brian was outside the Bar when Clint was calling, but can you please cite a source on this?

-------

Ozoner's comment: We know that Brian could not be seen on camera exiting the building, whereas every other person known to have entered could also be seen on camera exiting.

embufum's reply: You're half correct. We know that everyone who entered the bar using the stairs was seen exiting the same way. Once they left the building we do not know if everyone would have been seen by the cameras outside. We can't assume that all those people would have been easily tracked.

My comment: Embufum, which half of Ozoner's comment is incorrect??? Frankly I don't see what your reply has to do with anything that Ozoner said, and I certainly don't see any evidence that he said something incorrect.

-------

Ozoner's comment: We know that any building the size of the one we're talking about would have had many deep holes and trenches for footings/pilings at an early enough stage of construction.

embufum's reply: The building was NOT in early stages on construction. Large supporting beams would have had to be finished for the fact the upper level was open to the public.The structural integrity of that building would not support the upper floors to be open for business in early stages of construction.

My comment: In fairness, this is the closest thing to a valid point that you make in this entire post, as the building itself had been standing and operational for at least a year or two. But it's a large building, and I imagine it was probably completed in stages to an extent. I agree that it seems unlikely there would be numerous deep trenches--but who knows? If not a trench, I'd imagine there are numerous other crevices, pits, or other potentially treacherous areas where a drunk person could stumble into and become concealed--and with active construction occurring, it seems at least remotely plausible that the construction may have continued on without realizing this to be the case, resulting in Brian remaining concealed to this day.

-------

Ozoner's comment: We know that the construction area wasn't searched immediately and that some work was likely completed between the time Brian vanished and the time the construction area was searched. That work could have included filling holes and trenches with gravel and cement.

embufum's reply: All speculation on your part. You are assuming the Brian fell into a deep hole and then assuming that hole was covered up in time for the dogs and police to search. There is zero evidence to support your claim.

My comment: OF COURSE he is speculating!! That's why he said "could have..."! We are ALL speculating to an extent on this board because the amount of confirmed information we have is minimal. We take the little information we have, and we propose scenarios that fit that limited information, and we consider which scenario seems most likely based on the few details we know. We are all speculating to varying degrees.

What is actually astounding is that you single out people for "speculation" when it doesn't fit your desired outcome, but you ALSO speculate as much (if not way more) than anyone on this board--including at times speculation based on information that I would consider questionable without citing a reliable source.

Thanks for saving me from a lengthy reply, XPh.

By the way, embufum, may I ask if English is your native language? (I have nothing against you if it isn't; I'm just curious.)

 

[embufum]

Thanks for saving me from a lengthy reply, XPh.

By the way, embufum, may I ask if English is your native language? (I have nothing against you if it isn't; I'm just curious.)

It's a comforting thought to know that you do not have anything against me. Not sure why you felt the need to say that but nonetheless it's still comforting. lol

 

[dotr]

Still listed on the FBI site.
BRIAN RANDALL SHAFFER - COLUMBUS, OHIO — FBI

 

[itsrak]

Hey FBI, I got an idea. Investigate the building where Brian Randall Shaffer was last seen. Thoroughly. With the latest in technology. Solve this case.

 

[embufum]

Indiana man missing for decades before being found in Florida, thanks to ancestry website, now owes abandoned family nearly $2 million

 

[XPh]

Indiana man missing for decades before being found in Florida, thanks to ancestry website, now owes abandoned family nearly $2 million

Thanks for sharing, though I'm not sure how this is remotely connected to Brian Shaffer. I do however subscribe to the philosophy that we learn a lot by comparing and contrasting other cases. So let's do that.

Richard Hoagland:
-Was last heard from leaving his house to go to another location (purportedly the hospital, though he never made it there)
-Left his car at an airport (obviously, a place conducive to departing the area)
-Was heard from after his disappearance when he mailed his sons a birthday card

Brian Shaffer:
-Was last seen inside a building, with video showing him entering, but never leaving that building
-Left his car and all other belongings completely untouched where they were
-Has never been heard from since his disappearance

Those are the differences. What are the similarities? I see none, really, other than they are males who disappeared.

I'm not sure if the intent of posting this was to somehow build a case for the fact that Brian could have stolen someone's identity and still be alive, but I feel this is actually evidence AGAINST that notion, considering the stark differences in Brian's situation.

No one disputes that it is POSSIBLE to steal an identity and evade detection for years. But there are too many other unusual and unexplained elements to Brian's case that make that seem far more unlikely IMO.

 

[embufum]

Thanks for sharing

You're welcome.

 

[CARIIS]

Haven’t posted in a while. But passed by an active construction site the other day with trenches dug and concrete being poured. And naturally it got me thinking.

First, let me say I am not, and never have been, a proponent of the “buried in concrete” theory. Although I AM a proponent of the theory that something happened in the construction site, I’ve never thought concrete seemed that likely.

Having said that, I’d like to propose a thought experiment for everyone reading. Including you. Yes—you.

Imagine for a second that it is possible for a human being to be buried in concrete without someone noticing. Suspend your disbelief just for a moment for the purpose of this exercise. I realize that will be easier for some folks than others. But just pretend for a scecond that it’s possible, regardless of where you’re at with the idea.

Alright, is your disbelief suspended? (Even if just temporarily?)

Now that you’ve (temporarily) accepted that someone could become encased in concrete without anyone noticing.......does every remaining detail of the case now have an explanation?

Yes or no? Why or why not?

Thanks in advance.

It does!

Might we try a variant on this!

Visualize a buzzed BS exiting one of exits right around closing time.

On the first night of spring break.

In a high crime area

Shuffling around the dark alleyway-altered

getting nabbed robbed and discarded miles away

and joining the millions of missing men not encased in cement

but never seen again ................................................

 

[CARIIS]

At its core - this mystery, IMO, only remains as active as it does cause of LE unequivocally (and totally unsubstantiated declaration) statement that he did NOT leave.

After giving the public the false belief that there was only one logical exit (false) .

If that statement had never been made this would be a missing man- like many many others. moo

 

[itsrak]

At its core - this mystery, IMO, only remains as active as it does cause of LE unequivocally (and totally unsubstantiated declaration) statement that he did NOT leave.
After giving the public the false belief that there was only one logical exit (false) .

If that statement had never been made this would be a missing man- like many many others. moo

I would disagree. I think LE fairly presented its findings, and its findings IMO suggest a good probability that BS never left the premises. Det. Hurst for one holds a different view, having recently (earlier this year in the podcast) suggested that Brian may have entered the construction area but likely 'got exited out of there'.

To reiterate, Det. Hurst suggested that BS probably made it out of the building. This is directly opposite your assertion that 'LE unequivocally stated that BS didn't' exit the premises.

I don't think BS made it out. But Det. Hurst, if he believes BS entered the construction area, has little choice but to then also suggest that BS probably made it out of there, because to suggest otherwise is to suggest that BS remains in the construction area - and that would mean that LE messed up, that they searched for him in the construction area and missed his remains.

 

[XPh]

It does!

Might we try a variant on this!

Visualize a buzzed BS exiting one of exits right around closing time.

On the first night of spring break.

In a high crime area

Shuffling around the dark alleyway-altered

getting nabbed robbed and discarded miles away

and joining the millions of missing men not encased in cement

but never seen again ................................................

See, I'd disagree that this variation leaves no unanswered questions. I'd say there's several questions left unanswered, such as:

• Where the body? Unless these are some professional criminals, it's pretty tough to hide a body so well that it never turns up
• Same can be said for evidence of a murder. Nothing found? Evaded every single camera? No one heard anything?
• If this was a professional criminal capable of pulling off such a major crime without a trace, who would do such a thing? Why were they targeting Brian?
• If Brian's intention was simply to leave, why did he leave through such unusual means?
• Why did the phone immediately start going to voicemail? Purely coincidental timing of turning it off / the phone dying, etc.?

Or.....if you imagine for a second that he did end up somewhere concealed within the construction site......suddenly all of the other questions (other than "where did he end up?") suddenly disappear IMO.

 

[XPh]

At its core - this mystery, IMO, only remains as active as it does cause of LE unequivocally (and totally unsubstantiated declaration) statement that he did NOT leave.

After giving the public the false belief that there was only one logical exit (false) .

If that statement had never been made this would be a missing man- like many many others. moo

The assertion by police (as I know/understand it) is that there was only one "public exit." As a member of the public, there was only one exit Brian should have even considered using, so I think it's fair to say that there was indeed only one logical exit. In fact, he did use that exit earlier in the evening, the first time he left Ugly Tuna.

Just because other exits did exist (a fact we agree upon), that doesn't make it incorrect to say there was "one logical exit." I would agree with you if it could be demonstrated that many other members of the public were routinely using other exits, or that Brian himself had used a different exit at some point in the past. My understanding is that quite the opposite is true--that all members of the public used the same, singular exit.

 

[neesaki]

I know the chances of Brian being alive are slim, but I still would like to see those photos that the PI allegedly has. Did he decide not to release them ?