OK OK - Jamison Family; Truck, IDs and Dog Found Abandoned, 8 Oct 2009 - #11

[OkieGranny]

The nearest historical weather info I could find was for Stigler, about 25 miles to the north, and McAlester, about 40 miles west. Thinking about microclimates, there are various factors such as altitude and north slope vs. south slope that could make temps much cooler up on a mountain than in nearby flatlands.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KGZL/2009/10/8/DailyHistory.html

Here are the daily high/low temps and precipitation for Stigler:

Wed, Oct 8....86/57....0.01 (notes thunderstorm but just a trace of rain?)
Thu, Oct 9.....59/48....1.33 (thunderstorm)
Fri, Oct 10.....50/46....0.0
Sat, Oct 11....50/50....0.0

And for McAlester:

Wed, Oct 8....86/59....2.27 (rain)
Thu, Oct 9.....57/48....1.76 (rain)
Fri, Oct 10.....52/46....0.0
Sat, Oct 11....55/46....0.03

So there was definitely a sharp temperature drop from the 8th to the 9th, with rain and thunderstorms in the area.

Here's your weather info, Elainera.

 

[Mapman]

So are these the same place?

2Hope4 - I plotted the coordinates 35 .739 -95 11.892 on the topo map that I previously posted just to see if it marked something interesting. It marks a point about 4/10 of a mile north of the location of the abandoned truck. It might be a surprising coincidence but it marks a spot very close to the highest point on that mountain. You can see it on the map marked with an "X" and the number 1591 next to it to indicate the elevation. If I'm not mistaken, surveyor's monuments are labeled in this manner on USGS topographical maps. It is possible that these coordinates were written down as a noteworthy point of interest and have no other special significance. If I planned a hike in an area with a monument at the top of a mountain, I might want to try to locate it. Was there an indication that the location had special significance?

 

[SeekingJana]

I live in a fairly rural county. Our out of town areas look much like the place the Jamisons ended up in. No big deal during the daytime under good conditions.

Two thoughts come to mind: One is- With Sherilyn's untreated Bi-Polar disorder, and a religious persecution delusion being present in the time before they were missing, is it possible that she and Bobby decided to " recreate" a smaller scale of Jesus or one of the prophets " wandering in the wilderness" for 40 days and 40 nights? She could have convinced him that this was a form of religious purification. Fasting is a very common thing for zealots to do. (No offense meant by the term zealot as some mainstream religions also advocate a short fast occasionally but NEVER for a young child).

To me, the variable is the child's presence. She could have gotten sick, fallen on those rocks we saw her posing on, or gotten dehydrated and cold from the elements. A rational person or couple would have gotten in their vehicle and gone to a hospital in that case. But, if both parents were suffering from psychoses with religious overtones, maybe they thought that if they were faithful and prayed diligently, their sick or otherwise unwell child would be restored to health.

It's not rational, but it makes as much sense as any of this does as to why they stayed out in the scrub brush and didn't get water, basic shelter, or start a fire as far as is known.
I think they started out on this trip with mental instability and it got worse instead of improving..... JMO.

 

[Elainera]

Here's your weather info, Elainera.

Thank you! So it did in fact rain heavily and temperatures dropped.

 

[Elainera]

I live in a fairly rural county. Our out of town areas look much like the place the Jamisons ended up in. No big deal during the daytime under good conditions.

Two thoughts come to mind: One is- With Sherilyn's untreated Bi-Polar disorder, and a religious persecution delusion being present in the time before they were missing, is it possible that she and Bobby decided to " recreate" a smaller scale of Jesus or one of the prophets " wandering in the wilderness" for 40 days and 40 nights? She could have convinced him that this was a form of religious purification. Fasting is a very common thing for zealots to do. (No offense meant by the term zealot as some mainstream religions also advocate a short fast occasionally but NEVER for a young child).

To me, the variable is the child's presence. She could have gotten sick, fallen on those rocks we saw her posing on, or gotten dehydrated and cold from the elements. A rational person or couple would have gotten in their vehicle and gone to a hospital in that case. But, if both parents were suffering from psychoses with religious overtones, maybe they thought that if they were faithful and prayed diligently, their sick or otherwise unwell child would be restored to health.

It's not rational, but it makes as much sense as any of this does as to why they stayed out in the scrub brush and didn't get water, basic shelter, or start a fire as far as is known.
I think they started out on this trip with mental instability and it got worse instead of improving..... JMO.

Good line of thought, there might very well be something to it.

Also along those lines, they might have "followed" one or more of the spirits or angels that they believed to be seeing/feeling at their home.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Funny that you say rainstorm. I just watched the video linked above, the Disappeared episode. In the comments underneath someone says they had heavy rains there in the days they disappeared. Don't know if that's true, maybe someone can find out? Is there a website that keeps track of the weather?

Four inches that night and a temperature drop of at least 20 degrees.

 

[TooCurious]

That weather info is good stuff. Even though it is not the precise location, Stigler is pretty close. What i found curious is that they mentioned footprints in the mud. I looked and they only had about a 1/4 inch of rain the week prior to the trip. Where did the mud come from? It hadn't rained 2 to 3 days prior and hardly any the week before.... a 1/4 is very little rain. So were tracks made after the 9th? Or of all the dry places around did she decide to step in the mud?

 

[TooCurious]

Four inches that night and a temperature drop of at least 20 degrees.

Where did you get 4" number?

 

[TooCurious]

In heavy rain, I am searching for the heaviest cover...so that makes sense. They should have had fire making tools though. It's not hard to survive above freezing temps with fire and body warmth. I wonder what is survival skill level was. Anybody know? Boyscouts, previous camping trips?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Where did you get 4" number?

McAlester, on Weatheruderground. The rain started after 7:00 PM 10/8 and basically stopped by the midmorning of 10/9. That 4+ inches was basically overnight. That is a lot of rain in so little time.

Also, there is probably lower temperatures and higher rainfall because of the elevation.

 

[2Hope4]

2Hope4 - I plotted the coordinates 35 .739 -95 11.892 on the topo map that I previously posted just to see if it marked something interesting. It marks a point about 4/10 of a mile north of the location of the abandoned truck. It might be a surprising coincidence but it marks a spot very close to the highest point on that mountain. You can see it on the map marked with an "X" and the number 1591 next to it to indicate the elevation. If I'm not mistaken, surveyor's monuments are labeled in this manner on USGS topographical maps. It is possible that these coordinates were written down as a noteworthy point of interest and have no other special significance. If I planned a hike in an area with a monument at the top of a mountain, I might want to try to locate it. Was there an indication that the location had special significance?

Well, I don't know if it's significant or not. It was a legal pad with notes on it about the Jamison's. On the very top it showed the lat in the middle it said 'concrete pad' and then the long.

 

[Liora]

McAlester, on Weatheruderground. The rain started after 7:00 PM 10/8 and basically stopped by the midmorning of 10/9. That 4+ inches was basically overnight. That is a lot of rain in so little time.

Also, there is probably lower temperatures and higher rainfall because of the elevation.

The "elevation" is not high enough to effect the weather. These are not true mountains, just hills.

 

[Liora]

Does anyone know anything about the green-roofed house that is just north of where the bodies were found? The one next to the big pond?

 

[TooCurious]

McAlester, on Weatheruderground. The rain started after 7:00 PM 10/8 and basically stopped by the midmorning of 10/9. That 4+ inches was basically overnight. That is a lot of rain in so little time.

Also, there is probably lower temperatures and higher rainfall because of the elevation.

Oh ok. That is a lot of rain and it would be challenging, but the lows still didn't dip close to freezing. Elevation is only 1,500, so not that big of a change. Dang, you guys are about to change my mind on foul play! I still have a hard time with them not building a fire to stay warm. Maybe he wasn't much of an outdoorsman, in which case, they probably did die of exposure. What a tragedy.....
BTW, if any of you find yourself in a position where you unexpectedly have to stay in the woods......shelter is your first priority!

 

[J. J. in Phila]

The "elevation" is not high enough to effect the weather. These are not true mountains, just hills.

There is about a 1000 ft. elevation difference from McAlister. That can be a 3.0 temperature difference and will increase rain slightly. Lapse rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia It wouldn't have to be a mountain, per se, just an increase in elevation.

http://www.onthesnow.com/news/a/15157/ask-a-weatherman--how-does-elevation-affect-temperature-

With the lower temperature, the air loses some additional ability to hold water.

In other words, it was slightly colder and slightly wetter where the Jamisons were found than lower.

 

[TooCurious]

Oh ok. That is a lot of rain and it would be challenging, but the lows still didn't dip close to freezing. Elevation is only 1,500, so not that big of a change. Dang, you guys are about to change my mind on foul play! I still have a hard time with them not building a fire to stay warm. Maybe he wasn't much of an outdoorsman, in which case, they probably did die of exposure. What a tragedy.....
BTW, if any of you find yourself in a position where you unexpectedly have to stay in the woods......shelter is your first priority!

Not so fast.... 4" of rain on the 8th-9th? There would be no footprints left in the mud. They would have been washed out from the day before. They didn't have enough time to dry and set and that is a lot of rain. So if the footprints were left after the eighth, wouldn't that support the theory they were alive to call on phone by 12th? The dog went 8 days without water?? Look that up and I hate to link wiki but here it is....
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_long_can_a_dog_live_without_water

 

[MELANAISE]

Does anyone know anything about the green-roofed house that is just north of where the bodies were found? The one next to the big pond?

Could you post the coordinates to the house your speaking of. I can't find it. Or maybe mark it on a map and link it? Thank you.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Oh ok. That is a lot of rain and it would be challenging, but the lows still didn't dip close to freezing. Elevation is only 1,500, so not that big of a change. Dang, you guys are about to change my mind on foul play! I still have a hard time with them not building a fire to stay warm. Maybe he wasn't much of an outdoorsman, in which case, they probably did die of exposure. What a tragedy.....
BTW, if any of you find yourself in a position where you unexpectedly have to stay in the woods......shelter is your first priority!

My first priority would be to get out of the woods.

I think he'd need more than an outdoors to try to light a fire with that much rain.

http://www.wunderground.com/history...tml?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

It was probably in the low 50's to high 40's in the early morning hours. Wind is also an issue, with most hours it being 10-20 MPH, and gusts ranging from 20-35 MPH. The didn't have coats. I would not rule out exposure.

 

[TooCurious]

There is about a 1000 ft. elevation difference from McAlister. That can be a 3.0 temperature difference and will increase rain slightly. Lapse rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia It wouldn't have to be a mountain, per se, just an increase in elevation.

http://www.onthesnow.com/news/a/15157/ask-a-weatherman--how-does-elevation-affect-temperature-

With the lower temperature, the air loses some additional ability to hold water.

In other words, it was slightly colder and slightly wetter where the Jamisons were found than lower.

Temp did not fall below 50 until 5 am. on the 9th.With 20 mph wind it would have been about 44.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Not so fast.... 4" of rain on the 8th-9th? There would be no footprints left in the mud. They would have been washed out from the day before. They didn't have enough time to dry and set and that is a lot of rain. So if the footprints were left after the eighth, wouldn't that support the theory they were alive to call on phone by 12th? The dog went 8 days without water?? Look that up and I hate to link wiki but here it is....
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_long_can_a_dog_live_without_water

That was basically overnight of the 10/8-10/9; considering the site is east of McAlister, probably about 50-50. If it was hypothermia, they would probably have died sometime on 10/8-10/9