OR - Kyron Horman, 7 yo Second grader, Portland, 4 June 2010 - Part #13

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CharlestonGal said:
Well, if that's the plan here, it's working. She looked scared to death today, IMO. Petrified.
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Quite understandable, knowing that her every blink, head tilt and hug are vilified and used to crucify her by some observers. I would be terrified to be standing before what amounts to a judge, jury and firing squad all at once, too.

Just my own opinion, of course.
 
raeann said:
Quite understandable, knowing that her every blink, head tilt and hug are vilified and used to crucify her by some observers. I would be terrified to be standing before what amounts to a judge, jury and firing squad all at once, too.

Just my own opinion, of course.
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Not to mention, her child is missing.

That would scare anybody IMO.
 
Emma Peel said:
Four BIG things that have stuck in my craw:

1) Kyron did not leave school on his own without any reason, or convincing or luring. Finally, today it's confirmed for us that LE knows this.

2) This was a hectic and abnormal school day of happy hustle-bustle visitors going in and out of this little school for special events. It was widely known in the school community, and posted on the school external billboard at the end of the school year.
This is a generally acceptable fact of the day of Kyron’s disappearance.

The third item that sticks in my craw, that has not yet been confirmed for us, but I really think we can make a very fair assumption based on inductive reasoning. And that is:

3) There was clear breach in communications between Kyron’s caretakers.

And the 4th thing that sticks in my craw is more the broad brush of the perfect storm created by points 1, 2, and 3. I believe “perfect storm coincidences” are rare. But…

4) Points 1, 2 and 3 create “the perfect storm”.


The Breach.

How is it that Kyron's teacher(s) were not "missing" Kyron? They knew he was at school that morning at the science fair.

A bit later, during formal class attendance, he was not there. Kyron's teacher(s) marked him absent. AND, the teacher(s) was clearly not concerned about the fact that Kyron was not there.

A 7 year old, and they weren't concerned. Clearly, they had a reason not to be concerned that Kyron had been there earlier, but now was not there. Using inductive reasoning (thanks Sherlock) Kyron's absence made sense to them. It was expected/anticipated.

LE knows why the teacher(s) were not concerned. They knew the evening Kyron disappeared.

Terri stood at the bus stop expecting Kyron to get off the bus. Kyron's absence from school was a shock to her. Why? Because Terri brought Kyron to school and left him there, watched him walk down the hall to his class and his teacher(s) who would take care of him that day as usual. Terri expected Kyron would have a normal (well, more fun than normal) day at school.

Kyron's teacher(s) saw Kyron early on but did not expect him to be in class at attendance time. No alarms went off for the teacher(s) when 7 year old Kyron was not there. Terri left school certain Kyron's teacher(s) would take care of him as they had every day of the school year.

What caused such different expectations about where Kyron was supposed to be all day – completely different expectations between Terri and the Teacher(s)? Something happened to cause that breach of communication between those responsible for Kyron.

This breach is an important investigation focal point, because therein lies the breakdown in Kyron's security system. This breakdown created a huge gap in time for alerting about Kyron's disappearance. This breakdown created opportunity. This breakdown created opportunity on an opportune day. It was a key event in the perfect storm set-up for the vanishing of Kryon.

I am confident that LE knows that the communication breach is an important question to answer for Kyron’s investigation and I suspect they have their answer now.

(We can note, 10 days into the investigation, that the school’s response has been to keep the teacher in the classroom. Not even temporarily with a vacation or paid leave. No disciplinary action evident there. No apparent need to CYA on this point for the school.)

The Perfect Storm.

What an incredible coincidence that the EXACT child whose caretakers had a breach/misunderstanding - in the parent-teacher expectation/communication - that EXACT busy morning is the EXACT child that was somehow lured away.
Do you believe in coincidences such as this? Should we do the math? Statistically speaking, what are the odds where the initial event of a breach of communications with regard to ONE child in a contained and secured system of 224 children leads to the vanishing event of that EXACT ONE child on this EXACT special school event calendar day of approx. 185 school days?

That’s a probability problem (lol) and I can’t remember exactly how to calculate it. Never-the-less, it’s rather slim odds.



Am I over-thinking this? I appreciate just being able to write down this one thing that sticks in my craw after all this time.


At 10 days, and the declaration of a criminal investigation, I am left asking myself, very logically: Do I believe in coincidences? And then: What are the odds?

Today my conclusion is: Kyron was specifically the target. And, IMO, this was a planned Kyron abduction. And LE’s just gotta know this.


This is all just me thinking-out-loud, noodling, and somewhere in there is my humble opinion with regard to parent-teacher communication protocol for 7 year olds and the value of statistical reasoning when assessing coincidences. I reserve, as always, the right to change my opinion tomorrow. ;)
Click to expand...

No, you're not over-thinking it, in fact... :)

You seem to be assuming the reason the teacher's alarm bells didn't go off was a good one(?)

Very nice assessment, Emma :)
 
Was it ever verified that Kyron was supposed to be in the talent show?
 
BeanE said:
Can we link in this rumor and speculation? We just don't have enough.

:angel:
Click to expand...

I know, I know. I couldn't help myself.:angel:

I was determined to kill that bunny before it started hopping.
 
No More said:
Respectfully snipped by me...

but recidivism statistics are based on criminals being caught for subsequent offenses.
Click to expand...

I agree 100%. My my mother's father (I have never and will never call him my grandfather - my mom's stepfather is my grandpa) was a SO, in the worst way. He never had access to me (my mother made sure I had nothing to do with him), but my half-aunt told me stories of him raping/molesting her and her friends constantly and never getting caught. He never went to jail. My grandmother (who divorced him when my mother told her about him raping her on her 8th birthday) called the police on him and he was never charged. He was 'in trouble' with the law many times but but never spent time in jail.

He proceeded to remarry and rape/molest his other children. He then proceeded to become a truck driver with my step-grandmother. I can only imagine what he did across the country, never getting caught. He is thankfully (sorry if I sound harsh) deceased as a result of a painful bout with cancer. Maybe it was the time period (my mom was 8 in the 50s), I don't know.

Point being: I believe most SO do not get caught. It is really sad.
 
06/13 Kyron Horman Search​

As announced to the media by incident command, today was the last full day of the search and rescue operation for Kyron Horman.

PNW had 15 members in the field. Weary to the bone, PNW finished up their assigned search areas and left quarry base for the last time this evening. Throughout this extended search operation, PNW has fielded teams every day that we were called. Thank you not only to the dedicated team members, but to their very understanding family, friends, employers, employees, students, and clients. Without support from all sides, PNW would not have been able to continue the mission for so long.

Our hearts go out to all who know and love the little boy who at this time remains missing. We devoutly hope that he will be able to return home.​

 
Emma Peel said:
Four BIG things that have stuck in my craw:

1) Kyron did not leave school on his own without any reason, or convincing or luring. Finally, today it's confirmed for us that LE knows this.

2) This was a hectic and abnormal school day of happy hustle-bustle visitors going in and out of this little school for special events. It was widely known in the school community, and posted on the school external billboard at the end of the school year.
This is a generally acceptable fact of the day of Kyron’s disappearance.

The third item that sticks in my craw, that has not yet been confirmed for us, but I really think we can make a very fair assumption based on inductive reasoning. And that is:

3) There was clear breach in communications between Kyron’s caretakers.

And the 4th thing that sticks in my craw is more the broad brush of the perfect storm created by points 1, 2, and 3. I believe “perfect storm coincidences” are rare. But…

4) Points 1, 2 and 3 create “the perfect storm”.


The Breach.

How is it that Kyron's teacher(s) were not "missing" Kyron? They knew he was at school that morning at the science fair.

A bit later, during formal class attendance, he was not there. Kyron's teacher(s) marked him absent. AND, the teacher(s) was clearly not concerned about the fact that Kyron was not there.

A 7 year old, and they weren't concerned. Clearly, they had a reason not to be concerned that Kyron had been there earlier, but now was not there. Using inductive reasoning (thanks Sherlock) Kyron's absence made sense to them. It was expected/anticipated.

LE knows why the teacher(s) were not concerned. They knew the evening Kyron disappeared.

Terri stood at the bus stop expecting Kyron to get off the bus. Kyron's absence from school was a shock to her. Why? Because Terri brought Kyron to school and left him there, watched him walk down the hall to his class and his teacher(s) who would take care of him that day as usual. Terri expected Kyron would have a normal (well, more fun than normal) day at school.

Kyron's teacher(s) saw Kyron early on but did not expect him to be in class at attendance time. No alarms went off for the teacher(s) when 7 year old Kyron was not there. Terri left school certain Kyron's teacher(s) would take care of him as they had every day of the school year.

What caused such different expectations about where Kyron was supposed to be all day – completely different expectations between Terri and the Teacher(s)? Something happened to cause that breach of communication between those responsible for Kyron.

This breach is an important investigation focal point, because therein lies the breakdown in Kyron's security system. This breakdown created a huge gap in time for alerting about Kyron's disappearance. This breakdown created opportunity. This breakdown created opportunity on an opportune day. It was a key event in the perfect storm set-up for the vanishing of Kryon.

I am confident that LE knows that the communication breach is an important question to answer for Kyron’s investigation and I suspect they have their answer now.

(We can note, 10 days into the investigation, that the school’s response has been to keep the teacher in the classroom. Not even temporarily with a vacation or paid leave. No disciplinary action evident there. No apparent need to CYA on this point for the school.)

The Perfect Storm.

What an incredible coincidence that the EXACT child whose caretakers had a breach/misunderstanding - in the parent-teacher expectation/communication - that EXACT busy morning is the EXACT child that was somehow lured away.
Do you believe in coincidences such as this? Should we do the math? Statistically speaking, what are the odds where the initial event of a breach of communications with regard to ONE child in a contained and secured system of 224 children leads to the vanishing event of that EXACT ONE child on this EXACT special school event calendar day of approx. 185 school days?

That’s a probability problem (lol) and I can’t remember exactly how to calculate it. Never-the-less, it’s rather slim odds.



Am I over-thinking this? I appreciate just being able to write down this one thing that sticks in my craw after all this time.


At 10 days, and the declaration of a criminal investigation, I am left asking myself, very logically: Do I believe in coincidences? And then: What are the odds?

Today my conclusion is: Kyron was specifically the target. And, IMO, this was a planned Kyron abduction. And LE’s just gotta know this.


This is all just me thinking-out-loud, noodling, and somewhere in there is my humble opinion with regard to parent-teacher communication protocol for 7 year olds and the value of statistical reasoning when assessing coincidences. I reserve, as always, the right to change my opinion tomorrow. ;)
Click to expand...

Though I understand what you are saying, at least I think I do,
I so don't want to believe it.

Generally speaking, it really hurts my heart,
when it isn't a man who commits a crime.

But I suppose that's irrational.
moo
 
raeann said:
A calling system doesn't have to cost anything at all, it is an easy task for parent volunteers or even older students who are office aides. In a school of 275 students like this, with a absentee rate of about 20 per day as they had reported it to be, there would be just a handful of parents, if any, that forget to call in their child as absent. MAYBE 5 phone calls a day at most. All that is needed is that the school (not just this one, but ANY school) put the policy in place and educate parents about it by letter, school meetings, parent conferences, etc. Once parents know that it is REQUIRED that they call in, they will do so. Likewise, if they are informed that NO student leaves the building without being officially checked out through the office they will adapt to and follow that policy. The third step is that all absences are reported immediately to the school office for followup. NONE of these steps costs any money at all, it just involves a change of behavior that is not overly taxing on any of those involved.

jmoo
Click to expand...


As a former teacher, those are all good ideas.

However, where I live, I do not feel that they would work.

We have a policy that parents are to call in the absence. That would be nice if that was what they always did.

If they don't, what would I do about it?

I would call the parent then. Many, where I live, do not have phones, or they have not paid their bill. Or their phones cannot take incoming calls.

Or the phone is busy.

So how many times does one call?

Volunteers, as nice as they are, are volunteers. They are not paid. If something more enticing for the day comes along, they will go do that.

Since they are not paid, they cannot do a lot of things that might have legal consequences.

I know that people say that these things happen in their communities, but the day will come when a lawsuit will be filed about something, and the school will be forced to pucker up.

I am sure cadets at schools could do some things, but students that are reliable enough for such a task are probably in classes that they should be attending. The days of study halls are long gone where I live.

And we have a privacy policy. No parent can have access to anyone's address or phone number without permission. There are abuse cases where parents are hiding from a spouse/BF. Or there are other privacy issues. I had a family once that had a fake name because of some issues.

There are many issues today.
 
I have been thinking about this alot.Whether by fact or rumor.One teacher apparantly might have been told of an appointment?Was this the teacher that marked him absent?I feel there is a reason why she was not alarmed.We just don't know it yet.Another article said 2 teachers saw little Kyron with his step mother and thought he left with his step mother.I find it very interesting that 3 teachers thought he left with his step mother.I would like to hear all 3 teachers side of the story.
 
pufnstuf said:
Regarding Captain Shults, I was reminded of this. It's the Susan Smith case, but it gives inside information on how the police work to gain trust...it's not always for the comfort of family members.

From the start of the case, investigators carried out meticulously planned interrogations of Susan Smith that were designed to gradually break down her defenses so that she would confess. The investigators behavior and movements were carefully scripted and choreographed. There were no ad libbed or casual questions to Susan. Sheriff Wells and Agent Pete Logan acted as the "good cops." Logan has thirty-five years of law enforcement experience; twenty-seven of those years were spent in the FBI. Logan spoke gently to Susan and manipulated her into trusting him. The investigators believed that if they could build Susan's trust in them, they could coax her into confessing. Logan was careful not to push Susan too hard. Investigators were familiar with Susan's previous suicide attempts and they were concerned that if they pushed her too hard she would shut down or commit suicide.

http://www.trutv.com/library/crime/notorious_murders/famous/smith/invest_7.html
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I read the story of Susan Smith, and the thing that gave her away was she lied about the traffic light. She said she was at a light at this intersection and when they went back to the video the light wasn't red or something to that effect.
 
s_finch said:
To be simple, it fit in with someone's plan and perceived needs. But Reannan you've been on wb a long time so you know that, I'm preaching to the choir and just speculating outloud. It's either a family member or not, and from there you have to break down what the needs are of each of those two categories. I do believed it was planned (no, don't have evidence) and that LE will solve this.
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S Finch....I completely agree that LE is going to solve this case. Their every statement and action tells me that they know a lot more than us. I feel sad after this amount of time, that it will not have the happy outcome I pray for. But then... I think of Shaun Hornbeck. I keep going back to Kyron being a SECOND grader - that is really young! Either it was a terrible tragic event in the family - or it was targeted, IMHO. I sit on the fence as to which. Past experience can honestly point me in both directions, but the press conference by the parents bothered me - don't know why - it just did. I hope I stand a chance to be taught a new lesson in this case, and can learn to see thru less jaded eyes.
 
BeanE said:
Can we link in this rumor and speculation? We just don't have enough.

:angel:
Click to expand...

I guess it was a 'bad' rumor and I didn't even read it at the site where it was posted LOL Sorry guys. xox
 
Good post EMMA. I guess the next logical question would be who delivered the information to the teachers that made them not concerned that Kyron was absent and what that information was?
 
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