Oscar Pistorius - Sentencing - 6.13.2016 #2

[Jake18]

The PR effort massively overestimated Oscar's appeal to the so-called average person. IIRC Arnie was rabbiting on after the initial verdict (or maybe just before) that the long term plan was to get him to the Olympics, as though some hard remorse and grief wiuld pace the way for redemption later.

The problem, I think, is that while most of the population aren't as obsessed as us and haven't been following every little detail from the onset, his entire version is based on an unlikely occurrence. Nearly everyone has heard a noise in the night at some stage and those who have invariably look for the person who should be beside them in bed. All the discussions I've read on more general forums come back to this time and time again.

Most people just don't believe him, it's not got much to do with Nel's efforts or anything else, more that supposedly hearing a noise, grabbing a gun and screaming down a corridor only to pump 4 bullets into a closed bathroom door without calling for or checking on the person who is supposed to be sharing your bed seems ludicrous to most.

 

[mrjitty]

The PR effort massively overestimated Oscar's appeal to the so-called average person. IIRC Arnie was rabbiting on after the initial verdict (or maybe just before) that the long term plan was to get him to the Olympics, as though some hard remorse and grief wiuld pace the way for redemption later.

The problem, I think, is that while most of the population aren't as obsessed as us and haven't been following every little detail from the onset, his entire version is based on an unlikely occurrence. Nearly everyone has heard a noise in the night at some stage and those who have invariably look for the person who should be beside them in bed. All the discussions I've read on more general forums come back to this time and time again.

Most people just don't believe him, it's not got much to do with Nel's efforts or anything else, more that supposedly hearing a noise, grabbing a gun and screaming down a corridor only to pump 4 bullets into a closed bathroom door without calling for or checking on the person who is supposed to be sharing your bed seems ludicrous to most.

My guess, and this is only a guess.

In the end - Roux knows a heavy jail sentence is a lock for murder. Every year he can get off is a total bonus. And even if the Judge goes rogue it will get appealed.

Roux doesn't really have any good legal arguments, so all the soft stuff and PR stuff is worth a shot.

Nevertheless, this interview is real gambler country.

More the strategy of someone swinging for the fence instead of playing a tight percentages game.

Such a strategy is much more likely to be client led than Roux led, IMO

 

[Marfa Lights]

My guess, and this is only a guess.

In the end - Roux knows a heavy jail sentence is a lock for murder. Every year he can get off is a total bonus. And even if the Judge goes rogue it will get appealed.

Roux doesn't really have any good legal arguments, so all the soft stuff and PR stuff is worth a shot.

Nevertheless, this interview is real gambler country.

More the strategy of someone swinging for the fence instead of playing a tight percentages game.

Such a strategy is much more likely to be client led than Roux led, IMO

Roux will probably get a bonus for every year the sentence is less than the prescribed 15 year minimum.

 

[Jake18]

Roux will probably get a bonus for every year the sentence is less than the prescribed 15 year minimum.

Oscar will want to appeal any jail time at all, IMO. He's shown no genuine remorse - I bet he's still incredulous that he was charged in the first place, let alone convicted of murder. He'd be crazy to appeal say, a five year sentence, but I reckon he'd need to be talked out of it.

It'd be fascinating to hear Roux's tales of the Pistorius clan. With that wealth they're obviously used to calling the shots

 

[JudgeJudi]

<RSBM>

The problem, I think, is that while most of the population aren't as obsessed as us and haven't been following every little detail from the onset, his entire version is based on an unlikely occurrence. Nearly everyone has heard a noise in the night at some stage and those who have invariably look for the person who should be beside them in bed. All the discussions I've read on more general forums come back to this time and time again.

Most people just don't believe him, it's not got much to do with Nel's efforts or anything else, more that supposedly hearing a noise, grabbing a gun and screaming down a corridor only to pump 4 bullets into a closed bathroom door without calling for or checking on the person who is supposed to be sharing your bed seems ludicrous to most.

One night I woke to a sound downstairs. The first thing I did was wake my husband, "I heard a noise downstairs". He asked me what it sounded like but I couldn't tell him as it had woken me from my sleep. He got up, threw on some shorts, turned on the bedroom and hall light and stomped downstairs. When he returned, he said it was ... a possum ... as he saw it jump off the veranda roof. I asked him why he turned on all the lights and was noisy when going downstairs. He replied, "If someone was downstairs, I didn't want to be creeping around a corner in the dark and get a knife in the stomach".

But here we have this terrified, severely disabled man (Roux's words) who had to be led by the hand by his psych to grab hold of a desk having tried to convince the judge in his trial that it was his nature to confront the danger. My husband is quite capable of confronting a danger, he's strong and he's not disabled. It beggars belief that this display was put on in front of the judge and a watching world-wide audience.

 

[soozieqtips]

Oscar will want to appeal any jail time at all, IMO. He's shown no genuine remorse - I bet he's still incredulous that he was charged in the first place, let alone convicted of murder. He'd be crazy to appeal say, a five year sentence, but I reckon he'd need to be talked out of it.

It'd be fascinating to hear Roux's tales of the Pistorius clan.With that wealth they're obviously used to calling the shots

Masipa has already made it clear that if you cry, you must be innocent. Therefore, if you hobble around the court on stumps while crying, you should never have been charged in the first place. I've never forgotten OP's indignance at being 'charged with murder, let alone premeditated murder' or how he made out that giving up his life (to go on trial for a murder HE committed) was accepting responsibility! These people inhabit a different universe than the rest of us.

 

[soozieqtips]

<RSBM>


One night I woke to a sound downstairs. The first thing I did was wake my husband, "I heard a noise downstairs". He asked me what it sounded like but I couldn't tell him as it had woken me from my sleep. He got up, threw on some shorts, turned on the bedroom and hall light and stomped downstairs. When he returned, he said it was ... a possum ... as he saw it jump off the veranda roof. I asked him why he turned on all the lights and was noisy when going downstairs. He replied, "If someone was downstairs, I didn't want to be creeping around a corner in the dark and get a knife in the stomach".

But here we have this terrified, severely disabled man (Roux's words) who had to be led by the hand by his psych to grab hold of a desk having tried to convince the judge in his trial that it was his nature to confront the danger. My husband is quite capable of confronting a danger, he's strong and he's not disabled. It beggars belief that this display was put on in front of the judge and a watching world-wide audience.

BIB - I would love Masipa to have asked Roux if the hobbling, stumbling and grabbing onto things was how he rushed down the corridor with a gun.

 

[mrjitty]

Pistorius did not even turn on the lights after he shot Reeva because he was too frightened and preferred to blunder around in the dark

Of course we know that had he turned the lights on, he couldn't fill out the time line enough

 

[JudgeJudi]

Oscar will want to appeal any jail time at all, IMO. He's shown no genuine remorse - I bet he's still incredulous that he was charged in the first place, let alone convicted of murder. He'd be crazy to appeal say, a five year sentence, but I reckon he'd need to be talked out of it.

It'd be fascinating to hear Roux's tales of the Pistorius clan. With that wealth they're obviously used to calling the shots

Oscar would have to be out of his mind to appeal any sentence IMO. Leach strongly hinted to Nel that it was DD and did Nel want to pursue it. He declined and stayed with DE. I think the SCA would hand down a longer sentence.

 

[WilliamMunter]

Thanks for this clarification.

William, do you know where I can find the link to the 1st sentencing copy? If it exists even? I can't remember.

I remember these mitigations that she found for the CH. .....

Enormous contrib to society – money n time he gave

first offence , seems remorseful.( 1st offence has still been a mitigator in min sentencing, even though it's not meant to be eg. Flabba case this year. ) Not sure she'll be ok with remorse now
His conduct after- wanted her to live - likely void now
vulnerable – both for sentence and in trial
media impact on his career & reputation
negligence demands more mercy- obviously irrelevant

http://www.justice.gov.za/docs/other-docs/pistorius-sentence-CC113-2013-21102014.pdf

 

[WilliamMunter]

I was just going through a few links I had saved over the years (has it really been that long?).

Remember the reconstruction video that the prosecution team had prepared by an American company, The Evidence Room, to "visually map" that night?

This was somehow leaked prior to the conclusion of his trial. I'm still not sure if its leaking was a deliberate defence strategy or whether it was a true leak. Anyway, the Pistorius family were supposedly furious that it was released and legal action was threatened. I have seen nothing regarding them sueing The Evidence Room in the media.

However, I do know that all full copies of the video seemed to have been "cleaned" from the Internet...except this one:

[video=dailymotion;x211pto]http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x211pto_oscar-pistorius-sunday-night-2014-07-06_news[/video]

Compare and contrast it with his demonstration last week. Chalk. Cheese.

I also seem to remember in the reconstruction above that he shouted "Reeva there is someone the house, call the police". This phrase never appeared in his EIC in court.

 

[cottonweaver]

As someone commented earlier on here or on DS, I think the interview was Uncle Arnold's idea to help offset damages to their reputation that might impact the family businesses. Their PR firm probably recommended it and helped "produce" it though. Bad advice, I agree. I imagine they had to come up with something to keep earning their fees and with Uncle Arnie still holding on to delusions of former Olympic grandeur and needing to protect Brand Pistorius, it was probably not a hard sell.

Yes I think that's interesting as a secondary side- benefit.
I still think primarily, that Arnold has to take responsibility for the programme, he was most careful that he explicitly pointed that out. Why issue that disclaimer on OP's behalf?

Well , because he knew that OP was not going to testify and the controversy that would occur from OP not testifying in court vs OP releasing the media stunt virtually simultaneously. ( It's legal advice, to abrogate responsibility to say "It's my idea". )

You know that pity parade, Oscar didn't want to do that either, he had to be drugged and then have his suit dragged off him by Lore Harzenberg - he was totally out of it. Shem

 

[JudgeJudi]

I was just going through a few links I had saved over the years (has it really been that long?).

Remember the reconstruction video that the prosecution team had prepared by an American company, The Evidence Room, to "visually map" that night?

This was somehow leaked prior to the conclusion of his trial. I'm still not sure if its leaking was a deliberate defence strategy or whether it was a true leak. Anyway, the Pistorius family were supposedly furious that it was released and legal action was threatened. I have seen nothing regarding them sueing The Evidence Room in the media.

However, I do know that all full copies of the video seemed to have been "cleaned" from the Internet...except this one:

[video=dailymotion;x211pto]http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x211pto_oscar-pistorius-sunday-night-2014-07-06_news[/video]

Compare and contrast it with his demonstration last week. Chalk. Cheese.

I also seem to remember in the reconstruction above that he shouted "Reeva there is someone the house, call the police". This phrase never appeared in his EIC in court.

Thank you for this William. "Chalk. Cheese." That would have to be Swiss cheese - just like his versions - full of holes. :floorlaugh:

 

[JudgeJudi]

I have a question. Are there any paralyzed men that are doing hard time in a S.A prison?

Does S.A sentence disabled people to prison for murder.

This is a shocking story. Not only is this man severely disabled but he'd been imprisoned for 15 months awaiting trial and obviously hadn't even been sentenced.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/mar/08/south-africa-disability-prison

 

[Greater Than]

Hi everyone!

Some off topic posts have been removed.

This thread is about OP's sentencing for murdering Reeva, not Ben Butler.

Please stay on topic.

Thanks

 

[Trotterly]

I was just going through a few links I had saved over the years (has it really been that long?).

Remember the reconstruction video that the prosecution team had prepared by an American company, The Evidence Room, to "visually map" that night?

This was somehow leaked prior to the conclusion of his trial. I'm still not sure if its leaking was a deliberate defence strategy or whether it was a true leak. Anyway, the Pistorius family were supposedly furious that it was released and legal action was threatened. I have seen nothing regarding them sueing The Evidence Room in the media.

However, I do know that all full copies of the video seemed to have been "cleaned" from the Internet...except this one:

[video=dailymotion;x211pto]http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x211pto_oscar-pistorius-sunday-night-2014-07-06_news[/video]

Compare and contrast it with his demonstration last week. Chalk. Cheese.

I also seem to remember in the reconstruction above that he shouted "Reeva there is someone the house, call the police". This phrase never appeared in his EIC in court.

The demonstration in court was not under the same conditions as the video connected with Evidence Room.

In the Evidence Room video OP was running on thick carpet and a thick rug had been put down over the hard flooring. The court flooring was carpet tile. There was expert testimony during the trial that OP found it difficult to walk on this sort of surface.

 

[Val1]

The demonstration in court was not under the same conditions as the video connected with Evidence Room.

In the Evidence Room video OP was running on thick carpet and a thick rug had been put down over the hard flooring. The court flooring was carpet tile. There was expert testimony during the trial that OP found it difficult to walk on this sort of surface.

BBM - The evidence was from OP and therefore subjective imo.

http://www.sundaystandard.info/oscar-pistorius-trial-draws-conclusion

"Pistorius had provided Dr. Versveld with a description of his current physical challenges which the doctor read out in court. This explanation detailed how Pistorius has to use his arms for balance and is in significant pain when walking on his stumps. The pain is allegedly, primarily due to the slippage of the heel pad that covered Pistorius left stump. The pad has moved behind the stump, resulting in a loss of protective cushioning at the base of the stump.

Pistorius put forward that because of this, he struggles to walk on hard and uneven surfaces and cannot place his stumps on the grouting of tiles or other uneven surfaces, without suffering significant discomfort and even pain. However Pistorius earlier told the court that he was wearing socks cushioning his stumps on the night he killed Steenkamp making it easier for him to move around."

"This video was produced by an American company, The Evidence Room, at the request of the defense team and depicts Pistorius version of what happened on the night he killed Steenkamp. On the video Pistorius is seen almost "running" forward, right arm outstretched holding a gun at shoulder height. He is also seen walking backwards with no apparent difficulties. Pistorius appears to have much more mobility and far better balance than he, and his expert witnesses represented to the court."

 

[Jake18]

Oscar would have to be out of his mind to appeal any sentence IMO. Leach strongly hinted to Nel that it was DD and did Nel want to pursue it. He declined and stayed with DE. I think the SCA would hand down a longer sentence.

I agree, but I doubt Oscar does.

 

[soozieqtips]

BBM - The evidence was from OP and therefore subjective imo.

http://www.sundaystandard.info/oscar-pistorius-trial-draws-conclusion

"Pistorius had provided Dr. Versveld with a description of his current physical challenges which the doctor read out in court. This explanation detailed how Pistorius has to use his arms for balance and is in significant pain when walking on his stumps. The pain is allegedly, primarily due to the slippage of the heel pad that covered Pistorius left stump. The pad has moved behind the stump, resulting in a loss of protective cushioning at the base of the stump.

Pistorius put forward that because of this, he struggles to walk on hard and uneven surfaces and cannot place his stumps on the grouting of tiles or other uneven surfaces, without suffering significant discomfort and even pain. However Pistorius earlier told the court that he was wearing socks cushioning his stumps on the night he killed Steenkamp making it easier for him to move around."

"This video was produced by an American company, The Evidence Room, at the request of the defense team and depicts Pistorius version of what happened on the night he killed Steenkamp. On the video Pistorius is seen almost "running" forward, right arm outstretched holding a gun at shoulder height. He is also seen walking backwards with no apparent difficulties. Pistorius appears to have much more mobility and far better balance than he, and his expert witnesses represented to the court."

That's right. So there was no 'expert' testimony that OP found it difficult to walk on that type of surface, just the testimony from someone who was 'evasive', 'unreliable' and 'dishonest'.

 

[aftermath]

That's right. So there was no 'expert' testimony that OP found it difficult to walk on that type of surface, just the testimony from someone who was 'evasive', 'unreliable' and 'dishonest'.

Dr Versfeld has been treating him since amputating his feet and ankles when Pistorius was a toddler. He would be the most qualified expert to give an idea of Pistorius's stability (or lack thereof ) on stumps, having been dealing with Pistorius and his stump-aftercare for decades.