PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, Bellefonte, 15 April 2005 - #15

[J. J. in Phila]

PaulR,

One possibility is that he is in plain sight in a remote area, simply not wanting to be found. We hear stories all the time how people have hidden in remote places and not drawn any attention to themselves until something unusual happens and they get exposed. It is quite conceivable to me that he could have done it. One problem with this theory is that the older he gets the more he might need medical attention and if he's not using any fake IDs then he would eventually come to the surface unless his personal constitution is so strong that he will avoid medical attention at all costs.

That would be a possibility in the US.

The problem would be someone (RFG) showing up with a large amount of cash. That sets off red flags at the Treasury Department.

 

[PaulR]

Respectfully snipped. Exceptionally good points, btw.

Thank you, that's a very nice compliment coming from the expert in this case!

How aggressive are they at the Canadian Border or in Western European countries, e.g. Switzerland?

I can't really speak as to mail, only as someone who has crossed these borders. Canada it depends, I've had them ask some exceptionally probing questions not relevant to the crossing. No idea about Switzerland but since they aren't part of the EU, I think there would be a border crossing into the rest of Europe. Western Europe, not so bad. But the customs agents really are looking for people who are lying. I don't lie about what I'm bringing over so they consider me a dull tourist. If this was undeclared cash, and I assume it would have been, then that should have been picked up by agents.

Packages, I have no idea. Since cash being physically shipped is a huge red flag, I would think they'd be actively searching for it.

LE never did a forensic audit. They looked at cash withdrawals back to about 2003-04, but that was it.

RFG filed for the divorce, which was concluded in about 4.5 months. I'm not sure how much his ex-wife looked. It was not strongly contested.

I was thinking about the divorce. I would think his ex would have turned a friendly divorce into a not-so-friendly divorce if she thought he was hiding assets. Assuming they at least hired attorneys, hers should have looked at the financial statements and asked "is this right?"

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Thank you, that's a very nice compliment coming from the expert in this case!



I can't really speak as to mail, only as someone who has crossed these borders. Canada it depends, I've had them ask some exceptionally probing questions not relevant to the crossing. No idea about Switzerland but since they aren't part of the EU, I think there would be a border crossing into the rest of Europe. Western Europe, not so bad. But the customs agents really are looking for people who are lying. I don't lie about what I'm bringing over so they consider me a dull tourist. If this was undeclared cash, and I assume it would have been, then that should have been picked up by agents.

Packages, I have no idea. Since cash being physically shipped is a huge red flag, I would think they'd be actively searching for it.

I hate to put it this way, but RFG was a lawyer. That can involve some dramatics. He had traveled there before so he looked like a tourist looking back to see "the old country." I also think that they would be looking for terrorist related activities or drug smuggling than cash or a portable asset.

I also am not too sure there would be a lot of people smuggling something from the USA to Europe. Yes, I'm sure someone has, but it doesn't seem to likely.

I was thinking about the divorce. I would think his ex would have turned a friendly divorce into a not-so-friendly divorce if she thought he was hiding assets. Assuming they at least hired attorneys, hers should have looked at the financial statements and asked "is this right?"

I'm not sure. There were "visible" assets, a house, that was sold, but I'm not sure how much Emma, the second ex-wife, got. The suit for divorce was filed by RFG on 3/12/01, she was served on 4/26, and the decree was filed on 7/30. The marriage was "irretrievably broken," according to the complaint. They did not ask the judge for an equitable settlement.

To me that doesn't look like too much probing. I'm also not sure if, without going through records would know if everything looked right.

 

[PaulR]

I hate to put it this way, but RFG was a lawyer. That can involve some dramatics. He had traveled there before so he looked like a tourist looking back to see "the old country." I also think that they would be looking for terrorist related activities or drug smuggling than cash or a portable asset.

Money laundering is the other side of drug smuggling though. That's why there are rules in place about reporting bank transactions in excess of $10K. (Well that and to trace a whole host of other illegal activities.

I also am not too sure there would be a lot of people smuggling something from the USA to Europe. Yes, I'm sure someone has, but it doesn't seem to likely.

Depends if it is on the opposite site of smuggling - for instance, if a drug pipeline for heroin was Europe->US, then the cash would flow in the opposite direction.

I'm not sure. There were "visible" assets, a house, that was sold, but I'm not sure how much Emma, the second ex-wife, got. The suit for divorce was filed by RFG on 3/12/01, she was served on 4/26, and the decree was filed on 7/30. The marriage was "irretrievably broken," according to the complaint. They did not ask the judge for an equitable settlement.

To me that doesn't look like too much probing. I'm also not sure if, without going through records would know if everything looked right.

True. I'd like to know if Emma suspected RFG was hiding cash on the side.

Still doesn't explain why he wouldn't just move to Slovenia. He could even have kept his social security/pension. It seems like every time I hear about someone "disappearing" themselves, there is a very good reason, and I don't see a good reason here.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Money laundering is the other side of drug smuggling though. That's why there are rules in place about reporting bank transactions in excess of $10K. (Well that and to trace a whole host of other illegal activities.



Depends if it is on the opposite site of smuggling - for instance, if a drug pipeline for heroin was Europe->US, then the cash would flow in the opposite direction.

I don't think money laundering is a good analogy. It that, a criminal is trying to make cash, from criminal transactions look like it came from a legitimate source. That usually does not involve physically moving the cash to another country.

What could have happened is that money, that was legally obtained by RFG would have legally been deposited someplace else. The violation of the law is basically the possession of the cash after being received, and accumulated, by RFG.

True. I'd like to know if Emma suspected RFG was hiding cash on the side.

Still doesn't explain why he wouldn't just move to Slovenia. He could even have kept his social security/pension. It seems like every time I hear about someone "disappearing" themselves, there is a very good reason, and I don't see a good reason here.

If there was this theoretical transfer of funds, that money could not have been recovered, if it had been discovered and if RFG was beyond US jurisdiction. That is one reason. Here are some others:

1. He didn't want anything from past cases to come up. Sandusky would be an example, but not necessarily an all inclusive one. Had RFG been there in 2009-10, there can be no doubt that he would have been called before the grand jury and very little doubt that the press would have been pounding on his front door.

A bit more broadly, RFG might not have wanted to be "the ex-DA," where anything that he did in office could cone up again. A plea bargain where the defendant reoffended would be a good example.

2. There could be a financial reason. His heirs received the pension benefits, basically the full pension amount. Had he received them, even briefly, this would be greatly reduced if he died. In other words, if RFG was there and retired in 1/06, and was hit by a bus in Bellefonte in 6/06 and killed, his heirs would get much less; there may have been some tax implications as well.

RFG disappearing in 2005 had the effect of leaving his heirs in a better financial position had if he vanished or died in 2006.

[That is also a potential motivation for suicide.]

3. RFG could have been worried about someone he prosecuted coming back to get him, or his family. It is highly unlikely that this would have happened, but RFG still could have been worried it. He might not have wanted PEF to open the front door one day, and be faced with a guy he put away for a decade.

4. In reading this thread, and the previous thread, we have skirted this issue. RFG could have been involved in something nefarious that has not been disclosed. The Sandusky case would not be something nefarious. We cannot rule it in or out; we just need to put a question mark there.

[That is also a potential motivation for suicide as well.]

5. He was intrigued by the concept of vanishing. He had followed the Mel Wiley case. He was certainly aware of the Judge O'Kicki situation (who did end up in Slovenia). He may have wanted to show that he was smarter than not only the police, but several whole police departments. This is a way for RFG to show that he was the most brilliant guy in the county or possibly the state

There are, no doubt, other possibilities.

There could be multiple motives as well; it might not have be a single reason.

 

[PaulR]

1. He didn't want anything from past cases to come up. Sandusky would be an example, but not necessarily an all inclusive one. Had RFG been there in 2009-10, there can be no doubt that he would have been called before the grand jury and very little doubt that the press would have been pounding on his front door.

A bit more broadly, RFG might not have wanted to be "the ex-DA," where anything that he did in office could cone up again. A plea bargain where the defendant reoffended would be a good example.

"How come you didn't prosecute Sandusky?" "We wanted to but didn't have the evidence then." Which happens a lot (not Sandusky but other cases where the cops/DA know who did a crime but can't prove it, and don't want to end up with a not guilty verdict preventing them from nailing them if they ever get enough evidence.)

Same thing with plea bargains, I don't think there is a DA who has not been forced to offer plea bargains because of a combination of clogged courts and full jails.

2. There could be a financial reason. His heirs received the pension benefits, basically the full pension amount. Had he received them, even briefly, this would be greatly reduced if he died. In other words, if RFG was there and retired in 1/06, and was hit by a bus in Bellefonte in 6/06 and killed, his heirs would get much less; there may have been some tax implications as well.

RFG disappearing in 2005 had the effect of leaving his heirs in a better financial position had if he vanished or died in 2006.

I'm not sure what the tax implications would have been. Yes, his heirs would have gotten less if he had gotten hit by a bus, but fraud (which this would have been if this was a voluntary disappearance) is a strange solution for the rare case that RFG dying at a relatively young age. Retiring overseas (like Slovenia, an inexpensive country) would have allowed him to live a nice retirement and leave money to his heirs.

Or put it another way, he pretends to die so his family can get insurance money, what does he live on? I doubt he would have had enough secretly saved to come close to what his pension would have paid out.

3. RFG could have been worried about someone he prosecuted coming back to get him, or his family. It is highly unlikely that this would have happened, but RFG still could have been worried it. He might not have wanted PEF to open the front door one day, and be faced with a guy he put away for a decade.

Him and every other policeman, DA, and judge in the world. I don't hear many vanishing mysteriously.

4. In reading this thread, and the previous thread, we have skirted this issue. RFG could have been involved in something nefarious that has not been disclosed. The Sandusky case would not be something nefarious. We cannot rule it in or out; we just need to put a question mark there.

Maybe but it's been over a decade. I think we would have heard about something by now. This seems to be the most likely but I haven't heard anything about RFG that suggests that he was involved in something nefarious enough to vanish from the face of the Earth. IMHO if there was something dirty about him, especially relating to the Sandusky situation, he would have been thrown under the bus long ago since he isn't around to defend himself and would make a convenient scapegoat.

5. He was intrigued by the concept of vanishing. He had followed the Mel Wiley case. He was certainly aware of the Judge O'Kicki situation (who did end up in Slovenia). He may have wanted to show that he was smarter than not only the police, but several whole police departments. This is a way for RFG to show that he was the most brilliant guy in the county or possibly the state

I mean, I'm intrigued by vanishing as well, from following missing person cases and reading books like Exit the Rainmaker, this does not mean I want to change my identity. O'Kicki of course had a good reason to flee since the alternative was prison, that's not true here. I don't know what RFG would have gained; nobody would have known that he outwitted the cops, since running away from your life isn't an illegal act anyway. If Ray popped up on and said "Gotcha, I've been working on my tan in Slovenia for the past 12 years!" - outside of us, his family and friends, and whoever has been working on this case in his home county, the world would just shrug if it noticed at all.

This isn't to say that there isn't a reason or that these reasons wouldn't have been valid for him, but I still don't see it.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

"How come you didn't prosecute Sandusky?" "We wanted to but didn't have the evidence then." Which happens a lot (not Sandusky but other cases where the cops/DA know who did a crime but can't prove it, and don't want to end up with a not guilty verdict preventing them from nailing them if they ever get enough evidence.)

Same thing with plea bargains, I don't think there is a DA who has not been forced to offer plea bargains because of a combination of clogged courts and full jails.

Well, first of all, RFG had more evidence about the 1998 incident in 1998 that the OAG had in 2011. RFG had a second victim, B.K., that the OAG couldn't interview in 2011.

Yes, there are other former DA's that are in that situation, Bruce Castor in regard to Cosby, Kiniry, et al., in regard to the Altoona-Johnstown Diocese. Castor may have been completely right, but it still cost him politically.

I'm not sure what the tax implications would have been. Yes, his heirs would have gotten less if he had gotten hit by a bus, but fraud (which this would have been if this was a voluntary disappearance) is a strange solution for the rare case that RFG dying at a relatively young age. Retiring overseas (like Slovenia, an inexpensive country) would have allowed him to live a nice retirement and leave money to his heirs.

Or put it another way, he pretends to die so his family can get insurance money, what does he live on? I doubt he would have had enough secretly saved to come close to what his pension would have paid out.
[/quote]

In this scenario, RFG would get both enough to retire and give his heirs a nice inheritance. As for fraud, what fraud? RFG never made it look like he committed suicide or was murdered. I do not suggest that any of his heirs were involved; the key is not telling them

Him and every other policeman, DA, and judge in the world. I don't hear many vanishing mysteriously.

That would not preclude RFG being worried about it. This is discussion of RFG's possible mindset, and that is a possibility.

Maybe but it's been over a decade. I think we would have heard about something by now. This seems to be the most likely but I haven't heard anything about RFG that suggests that he was involved in something nefarious enough to vanish from the face of the Earth. IMHO if there was something dirty about him, especially relating to the Sandusky situation, he would have been thrown under the bus long ago since he isn't around to defend himself and would make a convenient scapegoat.

One thing that I have learned about Central Pennsylvania Gothic is that it is a place where legacies are more important than the truth. That attitude has permeated this case when event the report of the "mystery woman" was not publicized for more than a year.

I mean, I'm intrigued by vanishing as well, from following missing person cases and reading books like Exit the Rainmaker, this does not mean I want to change my identity. O'Kicki of course had a good reason to flee since the alternative was prison, that's not true here. I don't know what RFG would have gained; nobody would have known that he outwitted the cops, since running away from your life isn't an illegal act anyway. If Ray popped up on and said "Gotcha, I've been working on my tan in Slovenia for the past 12 years!" - outside of us, his family and friends, and whoever has been working on this case in his home county, the world would just shrug if it noticed at all.

This isn't to say that there isn't a reason or that these reasons wouldn't have been valid for him, but I still don't see it.

RFG could want a sense of satisfaction, or even superiority. He could be saying **Crooks and cops, I was always smarter than you.** That may not be a motivation for either of us, but neither of us is RFG. Ah, well, I'm not.

There are a number of possibilities, but they involve getting into RFG's mind, really deeply. Many times I write, something like, "That was the effect, but we don't know that this was the intent." We are in that situation completely when we discuss motivation.

 

[Tiana]

I don't think money laundering is a good analogy. It that, a criminal is trying to make cash, from criminal transactions look like it came from a legitimate source. That usually does not involve physically moving the cash to another country.

What could have happened is that money, that was legally obtained by RFG would have legally been deposited someplace else. The violation of the law is basically the possession of the cash after being received, and accumulated, by RFG.




If there was this theoretical transfer of funds, that money could not have been recovered, if it had been discovered and if RFG was beyond US jurisdiction. That is one reason. Here are some others:

1. He didn't want anything from past cases to come up. Sandusky would be an example, but not necessarily an all inclusive one. Had RFG been there in 2009-10, there can be no doubt that he would have been called before the grand jury and very little doubt that the press would have been pounding on his front door.

A bit more broadly, RFG might not have wanted to be "the ex-DA," where anything that he did in office could cone up again. A plea bargain where the defendant reoffended would be a good example.

2. There could be a financial reason. His heirs received the pension benefits, basically the full pension amount. Had he received them, even briefly, this would be greatly reduced if he died. In other words, if RFG was there and retired in 1/06, and was hit by a bus in Bellefonte in 6/06 and killed, his heirs would get much less; there may have been some tax implications as well.

RFG disappearing in 2005 had the effect of leaving his heirs in a better financial position had if he vanished or died in 2006.

[That is also a potential motivation for suicide.]

3. RFG could have been worried about someone he prosecuted coming back to get him, or his family. It is highly unlikely that this would have happened, but RFG still could have been worried it. He might not have wanted PEF to open the front door one day, and be faced with a guy he put away for a decade.

4. In reading this thread, and the previous thread, we have skirted this issue. RFG could have been involved in something nefarious that has not been disclosed. The Sandusky case would not be something nefarious. We cannot rule it in or out; we just need to put a question mark there.

[That is also a potential motivation for suicide as well.]

5. He was intrigued by the concept of vanishing. He had followed the Mel Wiley case. He was certainly aware of the Judge O'Kicki situation (who did end up in Slovenia). He may have wanted to show that he was smarter than not only the police, but several whole police departments. This is a way for RFG to show that he was the most brilliant guy in the county or possibly the state

There are, no doubt, other possibilities.

There could be multiple motives as well; it might not have be a single reason.

JJ,
Regarding your #5: I've been thinking about this as well. I am going to assume that RFG was the person who had the manual open to that particular page on his desk that described what to do when the DA's office is vacant. If it was him, it tells me that he had serious doubts that his staff and colleagues would know what to do in this instance without being guided by someone who knew better. I'm going to make a stretch here---do you think it might have been possible that he could have legally changed his name right under everyone's nose and no one was the wiser? He could have drawn up the papers, somehow obtained the signatures and then filed it (or misfiled intentionally) himself? I'm throwing this out there to get feedback and comments. Thanks.

 

[PaulR]

Well, first of all, RFG had more evidence about the 1998 incident in 1998 that the OAG had in 2011. RFG had a second victim, B.K., that the OAG couldn't interview in 2011.

Yes, there are other former DA's that are in that situation, Bruce Castor in regard to Cosby, Kiniry, et al., in regard to the Altoona-Johnstown Diocese. Castor may have been completely right, but it still cost him politically.

It costs you politically if you are still in office. Gricar was retiring.

In this scenario, RFG would get both enough to retire and give his heirs a nice inheritance. As for fraud, what fraud? RFG never made it look like he committed suicide or was murdered. I do not suggest that any of his heirs were involved; the key is not telling them

It's fraud if he faked his death so that his heirs could collect on his pension even though he wasn't dead, same as a faked death for life insurance purposes. But now we're looking at RFG vanishing and either telling his heirs (which makes them part of the fraud) or not telling them (which means they're never going to get closure on his fate, not a great thing to do to your family.)

That would not preclude RFG being worried about it. This is discussion of RFG's possible mindset, and that is a possibility.

It's a possibility but there are a lot of possibilities. Lots of things are possible in this case. It's not really plausible. Do we know of any other policeman/DA/judge who deliberately vanished in a manner similar to this for this reason? (Remember RFG could have just moved overseas and used a remailer, it would not have been difficult for him to be alive but effectively be out of reach if he was so concerned.)

One thing that I have learned about Central Pennsylvania Gothic is that it is a place where legacies are more important than the truth. That attitude has permeated this case when event the report of the "mystery woman" was not publicized for more than a year.

There are some legitimate reasons not to publicize the identity of the mystery woman (like her not wanting to be harassed.) It's not like WS can go conduct questioning and give her a polygraph.

RFG could want a sense of satisfaction, or even superiority. He could be saying **Crooks and cops, I was always smarter than you.** That may not be a motivation for either of us, but neither of us is RFG. Ah, well, I'm not.

Did he ever demonstrate this ego in his professional life? His personal life? I mean, making your loved ones think you are dead, giving up a nice retirement benefits package, having to take some level of protections to hide (it's not like he's living in Slovenia as Ray Frank Gricar), not returning to the country where he was born and lived all his life and missing games of his beloved Cleveland Indians - just to do what? Show us he's smart?

Let's look at another case: Lori Erica Ruff. Nobody knew who she really was for six years after her death. Does anyone here think she got one over on us? Whitey Bulger, maybe, but he was wanted by the FBI and was on their top 10 list. RFG isn't. If he turned up alive, he'd be yelled at for wasting police resources and rightfully so. Nobody would respect him. He'd actually be disgraced for pulling a stunt like this.

There are a number of possibilities, but they involve getting into RFG's mind, really deeply. Many times I write, something like, "That was the effect, but we don't know that this was the intent." We are in that situation completely when we discuss motivation.

I think motivation matters some if we are talking about the plausibility of him intentionally vanishing in this manner since it is perfectly legal to just move away for any reason you want.

Suicide is another matter, I think some who do it think that they are somehow sparing their loved ones grief if their body is never found (this doesn't make much sense to me, since there is no closure, but people who are suicidal are not known for thinking clearly.)

Giving it some thought, I think the most plausible reason for him to intentionally vanish is if he thought that doing so would somehow make him happy; he could just pretend to be Joe Whatshisname and all his troubles as RFG (and the suicidal thoughts if he had any) would be gone. But as the old saying goes, no matter where you go, there you are, and I do not think any happiness would have lasted very long.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

JJ,
Regarding your #5: I've been thinking about this as well. I am going to assume that RFG was the person who had the manual open to that particular page on his desk that described what to do when the DA's office is vacant. If it was him, it tells me that he had serious doubts that his staff and colleagues would know what to do in this instance without being guided by someone who knew better. I'm going to make a stretch here---do you think it might have been possible that he could have legally changed his name right under everyone's nose and no one was the wiser? He could have drawn up the papers, somehow obtained the signatures and then filed it (or misfiled intentionally) himself? I'm throwing this out there to get feedback and comments. Thanks.

The book was not open. It was found closed on the desk of 1st ADA Mark Smith on 4/18/05; when the book was opened, it came open to the part about filling a vacancy in the office of DA. That could indicate that someone had recently (within a few hours) opened it to that part, that part was being frequently consulted, or the spine had been broken deliberately.

RFG had not been in the office since 4/14/05, so he didn't open it recently. He could have consulting frequently because he was planning to walk away or commit suicide. He could also have been considering resigning after the November election and letting the winner be appointed for the remainder; it would be up to the bench to appoint a successor, however.

I have two theories:

1. Somebody could have wanted to check to see who would be appointed, because a lot of the theorizing was that RFG had committed suicide. Someone else checked, and didn't want to look ghoulish, and put it down. As somebody who was active politically and from the area, I have been in those types of conversations, within 24 hours of the guy dying.

2. It was likely a very stressful and hectic morning, Smith might have pulled the book and started to check, and then was distracted and just forgot.

To me, this is not strong evidence.

As for a name change, RFG could use an AKA perfectly legally. https://court.laws.com/alias In that regard, he could just use another name. A legal name change would have to be filed with the prothonotary/clerk of courts and approved by a judge.

If a sitting DA changed his name, I'm pretty sure somebody in that county would notice it, if he tried to do it in that county. If he were in another state, it might be possible.

I would also note that people have disappeared and have still used their real name: http://www.investigationdiscovery.com/tv-shows/disappeared/meet-the-missing/michele-whitaker/

I will also note that in April of 2005, there was about a 90 day delay in car registrations; the was a fire at the Harrisburg processing center. RFG could have purchased a car, legally, paid for it with cash, legally, and driven away. Unless LE did a database search, RFG's name would not have been discovered.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

It did cost Castor, politically, but Kiniry was age limited, and at the time, could not run for retention. This is still something that caused problem.

Respectfully Snipped

It's fraud if he faked his death so that his heirs could collect on his pension even though he wasn't dead, same as a faked death for life insurance purposes. But now we're looking at RFG vanishing and either telling his heirs (which makes them part of the fraud) or not telling them (which means they're never going to get closure on his fate, not a great thing to do to your family.)

RFG did not fake his death. He had not made it look like suicide, e.g. by leaving a note. He did not do anything, e.g. leave some traces of blood or a broken phone, to make it look like he was a crime victim. He did not stage an accident.

There is absolutely nothing that made it appear that RFG died on the weekend of 4/15/05. Hence, no fraud.

Likewise, who suggested that his heirs knew. PEF and LAG were both polygraphed, and showed that the didn't know what happened to RFG.

RFG could have felt that providing financially for his heirs were enough; he would not be the first.

It's a possibility but there are a lot of possibilities. Lots of things are possible in this case. It's not really plausible. Do we know of any other policeman/DA/judge who deliberately vanished in a manner similar to this for this reason? (Remember RFG could have just moved overseas and used a remailer, it would not have been difficult for him to be alive but effectively be out of reach if he was so concerned.)

Mel Wiley did, though we don't know is motivation.

There are some legitimate reasons not to publicize the identity of the mystery woman (like her not wanting to be harassed.) It's not like WS can go conduct questioning and give her a polygraph.

LE did not publicize the existence of the "mystery woman." They didn't say, a week into this, **We had a report that Gricar was seen with an unknown women. He are looking for her or for anyone who might have seen her.** I agree that the identity of the mystery women need not be exposed, but, so far as I know, LE doesn't know who she is.

Did he ever demonstrate this ego in his professional life? His personal life?

In his professional life, yes. He noted how many doors he knocked on in his 1989 election. Zero.

Let's look at another case: Lori Erica Ruff. Nobody knew who she really was for six years after her death. Does anyone here think she got one over on us?

I have no idea who she is.

If he turned up alive, he'd be yelled at for wasting police resources and rightfully so. Nobody would respect him. He'd actually be disgraced for pulling a stunt like this.

What "stunt?" He did something that is perfectly legal to do, if he left voluntarily.

I think motivation matters some if we are talking about the plausibility of him intentionally vanishing in this manner since it is perfectly legal to just move away for any reason you want.

There was a prosecutor who was asked by a judge about a defendant's motives. The prosecutor replied, "Motive, your honor, is something we never have to prove." The name of the prosecutor was Ray Gricar.

He was right. Unless someone says, **I did X for this reason,** motive will be impossible to determine. We can say that certain action are consistent with a particular motive, or inconsistent with a particular motive, but nothing beyond that.

Suicide is another matter, I think some who do it think that they are somehow sparing their loved ones grief if their body is never found (this doesn't make much sense to me, since there is no closure, but people who are suicidal are not known for thinking clearly.)

If this was suicide, we don't know if he made a deliberate attempt to hide his body.

Giving it some thought, I think the most plausible reason for him to intentionally vanish is if he thought that doing so would somehow make him happy; he could just pretend to be Joe Whatshisname and all his troubles as RFG (and the suicidal thoughts if he had any) would be gone. But as the old saying goes, no matter where you go, there you are, and I do not think any happiness would have lasted very long.

Another reason could be that he just wanted to start over with his life. We won't have evidence one way or the other, unless RFG pops up and says so.

At this point, we are talking about a half dozen potential motives for a voluntary departure. I can come up with some motives for murder and suicide.

All of that is putting the cart before the horse. Motivation is basically asking: Why did
it happen. We don't know what "it" is.

 

[Ozoner]

Mel Wiley did, though we don't know is motivation.

No one knows for certain that Mel Wiley started a new life, although it is possible.

It's at least as likely that he staged a walk-away scenario in order to commit suicide in a way that would allow his mother and other family members to believe that he was still alive.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

No one knows for certain that Mel Wiley started a new life, although it is possible.

It's at least as likely that he staged a walk-away scenario in order to commit suicide in a way that would allow his mother and other family members to believe that he was still alive.

It is possible, but very unlikely. In 30 years, no remains were found. A key bit of evidence, a bus schedule, was found in clothing that returned after dry cleaning. Had Wiley staged that, there would no way of knowing if it would remain there after dry cleaning.

 

[PaulR]

Possible dumb question: Doe Network notes the bus schedule, but also a cab schedule found in the pockets of the dry cleaned garments for Mel Wiley too.

What is a cab schedule? Cabs usually run on demand.

 

[Ozoner]

It is possible, but very unlikely. In 30 years, no remains were found. A key bit of evidence, a bus schedule, was found in clothing that returned after dry cleaning. Had Wiley staged that, there would no way of knowing if it would remain there after dry cleaning.

Is there any evidence that he actually took a bus anywhere? If he committed suicide, I think there's a good chance that he left the area in order to do it
He also wrote the following:
“I will have in one sense of the word, gone away. It’s a one-way trip, so I’m told, with no option of ever returning and perhaps that’s just as well for any and all concerned."
Who would tell him something like that?
Death has been described as a one way trip, though. The haven't found his body, but they haven't found him alive, either, and the tone of that letter is reminiscenrt of suicide notes.
If Wiley wanted to start a new life, he was free to do that without staging a disappearance. Vanishing got him out of alimony, but he lost a great deal of pension money that he could have started collecting in about three years. Say what you will, I believe he died back in 1985.

 

[Tiana]

JJ,
Thank you for clarifying the manual situation. Like you said before, there are so many inaccuracies in this story. And thank you for the information on the legal use of an alias; I was totally unaware of this. I don't even remember the fire in 2005 at the processing center. I think if he was planning on leaving, something came up that screwed with the logistics of the original walk-away plan and maybe that's why he had been exhausted for several weeks before he went missing. It could be that fire offered him a better way out (as in buying the car with cash, etc.) and he was re-thinking part of the plan. I have always thought the exhaustion was caused by a thinking marathon.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Possible dumb question: Doe Network notes the bus schedule, but also a cab schedule found in the pockets of the dry cleaned garments for Mel Wiley too.

What is a cab schedule? Cabs usually run on demand.

I have no idea, but I'd suspect that the website is wrong. In the initial media accounts, there was nothing about a cab schedule.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Is there any evidence that he actually took a bus anywhere? If he committed suicide, I think there's a good chance that he left the area in order to do it
He also wrote the following:
“I will have in one sense of the word, gone away. It’s a one-way trip, so I’m told, with no option of ever returning and perhaps that’s just as well for any and all concerned."
Who would tell him something like that?
Death has been described as a one way trip, though. The haven't found his body, but they haven't found him alive, either, and the tone of that letter is reminiscenrt of suicide notes.
If Wiley wanted to start a new life, he was free to do that without staging a disappearance. Vanishing got him out of alimony, but he lost a great deal of pension money that he could have started collecting in about three years. Say what you will, I believe he died back in 1985.

Even if Wiley walked away, and some later point, even a week, committed suicide, that would still be walkaway.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

JJ,
Thank you for clarifying the manual situation. Like you said before, there are so many inaccuracies in this story. And thank you for the information on the legal use of an alias; I was totally unaware of this. I don't even remember the fire in 2005 at the processing center. I think if he was planning on leaving, something came up that screwed with the logistics of the original walk-away plan and maybe that's why he had been exhausted for several weeks before he went missing. It could be that fire offered him a better way out (as in buying the car with cash, etc.) and he was re-thinking part of the plan. I have always thought the exhaustion was caused by a thinking marathon.

Yes, it is possible that he could have used the delay in processing to his advantage. He would have to be the person buying the car for it to be an advantage.

The only reason that I remember it is that I purchased a car in the first week of April 2005. The dealer did the paperwork, but after 2.5 months, I called PennDOT. They explained the delay and mentioned the fire. I had to go AAA to have process it there. That was about the only way that it could be done electronically at the time.

RFG's tiredness may have involved depression, late night communications via the Internet, a thinking marathon, i.e. going over the details again and again to make sure he had everything just right. I think that this is a long shot, but it could be unrelated.

I am trying to play Devil's Advocate with most of these posts. That is largely because I am not sure what happened to Ray Gricar.

 

[Ozoner]

Even if Wiley walked away, and some later point, even a week, committed suicide, that would still be walkaway.

If you want to define it that way, then I would agree that Mel Wiley's disappearance was probably a walkaway, but one that followed by suicide shortly thereafter.