PA PA - Ray Gricar, 59, former district attorney, Bellefonte, 15 Apr 2005 - #17

[Betty P]

If RG got into another vehicle on his own or by force, that would lower the odds on the suicide scenario. It raises them on abduction. Disposing of the laptop and hard drive in the river pretty much rules out that what was on the hard drive was mundane and unimportant. I'm still hung up on the cigarette ash and smell in the mini. Wondering if it could have been an unknown actor searching the mini looking for the computer?

Seems possible. If someone kidnapped Ray, others probably stayed behind to search his car, etc. JJ disagrees, but on the podcast web site, there digital copies of a LE report on searching his car. It said there was only 1 fingerprint inside the entire car. There were marks consistent with someone having wiped down the interior. No prints on the steering wheel or any of the places you'd expect to find them.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

If RG got into another vehicle on his own or by force, that would lower the odds on the suicide scenario. It raises them on abduction. Disposing of the laptop and hard drive in the river pretty much rules out that what was on the hard drive was mundane and unimportant. I'm still hung up on the cigarette ash and smell in the mini. Wondering if it could have been an unknown actor searching the mini looking for the computer?

Yes on suicide, which is why I last gave it a 4.5% likelihood. Getting into another car makes that unlikely.

Important to whom. I think it was important to RFG that what ever was on there would not be seen. It could have been personal financial data, risque photos of his SO, personnel reports, anything. To us, it might not be important.

As an ex-smoker, I have a problem with someone fumbling around in a strange car with a cigarette.

 

[Black Diamond]

The entrance to the SOS is problematic as the quantity of the other scents and scents from the SOS itself, coupled with the experience of the dog and and handler could have been a factor. I would have advised the handler to take the dog outside, clean out it's nose (they do this in a bucket of water), go back inside and re-imprint the dog from the scent article. Then let the dog walk around inside the SOS to see if it alerted on any specific area.

I agree that entrance to SOS would be a bad place for a dog to pickup and follow one person’s scent.

But, the park across from Packwood House should be a better environment than the parking lot where the dog apparently worked. At the park, less human traffic, plus the grass would likely hold scent better than the gravel lot. No word (that I have seen) on if the dog was taken the short distance to check there. Also no word if they had the dog check the sidewalk on the bridge. Suicide was an early theory, and seems like a no-brainer to me to walk that bloodhound across the bridge to try to catch Ray’s scent.

ETA: we know Ray was at the park, and we do not know if he was on the bridge.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I agree that entrance to SOS would be a bad place for a dog to pickup and follow one person’s scent.

But, the park across from Packwood House should be a better environment than the parking lot where the dog apparently worked. At the park, less human traffic, plus the grass would likely hold scent better than the gravel lot. No word (that I have seen) on if the dog was taken the short distance to check there. Also no word if they had the dog check the sidewalk on the bridge. Suicide was an early theory, and seems like a no-brainer to me to walk that bloodhound across the bridge to try to catch Ray’s scent.

ETA: we know Ray was at the park, and we do not know if he was on the bridge.

There could be a time delay.

RFG was seen across from the Packwood House after 2:00 PM and before 4:00 PM on 4/15. He likely was in the parking lot on 4/16; he was seen there later in the day on 4/15. The dog was brought in in the early afternoon of 4/17.

Question for Tracker. Is it likely that the scent from 4/15 could have dissipated and that the dog picked up a fresher scent?

 

[Black Diamond]

There could be a time delay.

RFG was seen across from the Packwood House after 2:00 PM and before 4:00 PM on 4/15. He likely was in the parking lot on 4/16; he was seen there later in the day on 4/15. The dog was brought in in the early afternoon of 4/17.

Question for Tracker. Is it likely that the scent from 4/15 could have dissipated and that the dog picked up a fresher scent?

I am not convinced that there is much of a chance Ray was in that area near SOS on 4/16. There were some witnesses, but they don’t seem as solid though I haven’t found much info on their statements. JJ do you have any links or articles on the 4/16 sightings you could share?

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I am not convinced that there is much of a chance Ray was in that area near SOS on 4/16. There were some witnesses, but they don’t seem as solid though I haven’t found much info on their statements. JJ do you have any links or articles on the 4/16 sightings you could share?

Virtually nothing that is still up.

Brad Alvey was a shopkeeper in the SoS who spoke to the Daily Collegian. He saw him on 4/15 in the SoS.

Craig Bennett saw him at the SoS on 4/16 Gricar's records reviewed

 

[Trackergd]

There could be a time delay.

RFG was seen across from the Packwood House after 2:00 PM and before 4:00 PM on 4/15. He likely was in the parking lot on 4/16; he was seen there later in the day on 4/15. The dog was brought in in the early afternoon of 4/17.

Question for Tracker. Is it likely that the scent from 4/15 could have dissipated and that the dog picked up a fresher scent?

Should have still been skin cells on the ground for a scent, even two days later given the ideal conditions. Should also have been print evidence in the parking lot and the park.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Should have still been skin cells on the ground for a scent, even two days later given the ideal conditions. Should also have been print evidence in the parking lot and the park.

What do you mean by "print evidence?"

 

[Black Diamond]

Virtually nothing that is still up.

Brad Alvey was a shopkeeper in the SoS who spoke to the Daily Collegian. He saw him on 4/15 in the SoS.

Craig Bennett saw him at the SoS on 4/16 Gricar's records reviewed

Thanks for posting. Bennet 95% sure and not much info on the other witness. Shaky.

 

[Black Diamond]

Virtually nothing that is still up.

Brad Alvey was a shopkeeper in the SoS who spoke to the Daily Collegian. He saw him on 4/15 in the SoS.

Craig Bennett saw him at the SoS on 4/16

Who is the dude with the mustache in the picture of Ray’s family at the press conference?

 

[Trackergd]

What do you mean by "print evidence?"

Should have been scuffs in the parking lot and prints/grass pushdowns in the park where RG was walking.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Who is the dude with the mustache in the picture of Ray’s family at the press conference?

PEF's brother.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

Should have been scuffs in the parking lot and prints/grass pushdowns in the park where RG was walking.

The parking lot was pea sized gravel and had a lot of traffic. Grass will rebound quickly. They may hold scent rafts but neither will leave a visible trail after a day.

 

[Trackergd]

The parking lot was pea sized gravel and had a lot of traffic. Grass will rebound quickly. They may hold scent rafts but neither will leave a visible trail after a day.

Trust me that there was evidence. An expert tracker would have had no problem spotting it. I have tracked people across a macadam parking lot, in grass days later and in woods weeks later. The gravel had "stone rolls". Its all in knowing how to read them.

 

[Trackergd]

It's not as hard as you think. Walking in dirt, sand, mud, etc. that adheres to the footwear is tracked onto the macadam/concrete and is dislodged with each step leaving a tiny bit of material. Using a side head technique, you can see the trail left on the hard surface and determine the direction of travel, you then can pick up the trail on the far side of the paved area. Stones in a parking area or even in a creek bed are dislodged and moved from their "bed". The surface of the stone/gravel will have a different appearance than those around them to the trained eye. Grass is always pushed down in the direction of travel and even after a couple of days will still exhibit a "lean", notably if the grass blade has been fractured. Would also be heal digs in the dirt as most humans are heel walkers.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

It's not as hard as you think. Walking in dirt, sand, mud, etc. that adheres to the footwear is tracked onto the macadam/concrete and is dislodged with each step leaving a tiny bit of material. Using a side head technique, you can see the trail left on the hard surface and determine the direction of travel, you then can pick up the trail on the far side of the paved area. Stones in a parking area or even in a creek bed are dislodged and moved from their "bed". The surface of the stone/gravel will have a different appearance than those around them to the trained eye. Grass is always pushed down in the direction of travel and even after a couple of days will still exhibit a "lean", notably if the grass blade has been fractured. Would also be heal digs in the dirt as most humans are heel walkers.

Okay, especially in the lot, there would have been a lot of both vehicle and foot traffic in the parking lot, between the time the dog was in and times RFG was seen there.

In the park, the last time he was seen there was about 44 hours before the dog was there.

 

[ConundrumPonderer]

Yes on suicide, which is why I last gave it a 4.5% likelihood. Getting into another car makes that unlikely.

Important to whom. I think it was important to RFG that what ever was on there would not be seen. It could have been personal financial data, risque photos of his SO, personnel reports, anything. To us, it might not be important.

As an ex-smoker, I have a problem with someone fumbling around in a strange car with a cigarette.

I don’t know J.J., as a smoker (of varying level over the years) I can absolutely see someone searching a car with the dart in the non dominant (gloved hands) hand, either braced, or sitting, whilst searching. They search by hand, the dart ashes, but that’s no problem, the only problem is dropping the filter (for evidence, I mean). I’m also entirely aware that my own bias about what I think happened feeds into me not thinking smoking whilst doing a hand search of a car would be unusual, but being aware keeps me honest.

 

[J. J. in Phila]

I don’t know J.J., as a smoker (of varying level over the years) I can absolutely see someone searching a car with the dart in the non dominant (gloved hands) hand, either braced, or sitting, whilst searching. They search by hand, the dart ashes, but that’s no problem, the only problem is dropping the filter (for evidence, I mean). I’m also entirely aware that my own bias about what I think happened feeds into me not thinking smoking whilst doing a hand search of a car would be unusual, but being aware keeps me honest.

Reaching in, is not a problem, but actually searching, reaching under seats, while holding a cigarette in his other hand or mouth?

 

[ConundrumPonderer]

Reaching in, is not a problem, but actually searching, reaching under seats, while holding a cigarette in his other hand or mouth?

I was trying to think about the most through and short way to explain what I mean, in short: Yep. The list of complicated in depth tasks I’ve undertaken, and family/friends/acquaintances/people I don’t know from a hole in the ground have undertaken in my presence, with a lit cigarette in hand or mouth is only nowadays curtailed by limits placed on smoking. I’ve cooked, cleaned, searched for missing items, conducted archaeological digs, performed complicated technical tasks, military duties, shopped, concerts all whilst lit up, as have all the people around me. I honestly think the only things I’ve never done while smoking were medical procedures, or visiting people who don’t want you to smoke, places you’re not allowed to smoke. If you’re committing a crime, laws or common courtesy don’t apply.

 

[Black Diamond]

No action here in 2 months! Also thinking Rebecca Knight must have given up on the Final Argument podcast. Last one was released 8 months ago. No new posts since then on the website or social media pages. Shame she left us all hanging. Maybe the death threat she mentioned in the one podcast scared her off of the trail? Or did she run out of content and give up?