Plea or Tip? Will there be an arrest?

[secretsquirrel]

He may not have cut a deal, he may have been tricked into disclosure. It defies logic that a previously convicted sex offender would have bragged about his act to anyone. He had too much to lose. There's so many possibilities to this. Images could have been found on the computer and turned over to the authorities by his parents. All of this makes much more sense than someone else being involved. Sexual predators don't work under the buddy system.

 

[nursebeeme]

Given that her remains were found ::early:: (stressed here on the news) Saturday morning, I agree...either the perp is in jail or he's been very, very monitored.

And, given that they could have kept this under wraps - they waited well over 24 hours before it was even announced that there was this unexpected press conference today, there's a reason we've not heard of someone else suddenly arrested that is a possible 'candidate.'

No one had an inkling this was going down - heck, everyone was talking about Kit Carson Park for the last 48 hours - why was this publicized now if a) the person isn't arrested, or b) there's some strategy and he's out and they're waiting for...? to arrest them.

Seems it's got to be one or the other, doesn't it?

SoCal, they did say FBI got involved yesterday because of the proximity to reservation grounds. Would that factor in as what could be done if it were someone on the reservation?

bbm.. ita. I think le masked the kit carson search with the active search for her ramains (jmoo). And don't forget the INITIAL FRNT for the kit search! Le initially told media they were following up on the hair bag and NOTHING TURNED UP (and literally at that same time of record that statement was being released it was early morning... the same reported time of discovery of Amber's remains)

 

[jjenny]

He may not have cut a deal, he may have been tricked into disclosure. It defies logic that a previously convicted sex offender would have bragged about his act to anyone. He had too much to lose. There's so many possibilities to this. Images could have been found on the computer and turned over to the authorities by his parents. All of this makes much more sense than someone else being involved. Sexual predators don't work under the buddy system.

People brag about all kinds of things even if they have a lot to lose.
Many cases have been solved that way.

 

[nursebeeme]

in other words my opinion is that HE TALKED.

 

[secretsquirrel]

People brag about all kinds of things even if they have a lot to lose.
Many cases have been solved that way.

I think you'd be hard pressed to find that pattern with sexual predators.

 

[SoCalSleuth]

I thought it was north of the reservation?

Hey JBean, sorry I missed this before. I wasn't sure when I first posted what local authorities' jurisdiction was and so I looked it up. Some reports say north of the reservation and others (the LA Times) say it was on the reservation. The Pala Reservation is huge and there is private and public land that intersects alot of it around this area--not sure how that happened --if they sold some off long ago or if it was always that way. For instance, you can be hiking the area on public land then come to a sign saying "Pala Indian reservation" --walk 2 feet the other way--be back on public land--walk 10 yards another way and be back on the reservation-- all in different directions. Maybe they are not sure if the location is part of the reservation or maybe it was on the reservation and initial reports were wrong.

 

[LilysMom]

I have read so many articles that my head is spinning, but does anyone remember an interview with a neighbor of JAGs in Escondido who said they were surprised at the charges because he had teenage boys and girls over all the time? I thought that might give him a teen to lure her away. Just a thought. I honestly feel based on description and location of the body that there is a good chance this is unrelated to JAG and was actually a native american whose DNA is not in the database. This would explain why there hasn't been an arrest either.

I gathered from the interview that I read with the private investigator that this area was his idea and Texas Equusearch dogs got a hit so that is why the investigation was centered out there today. If their tip was from him, that also explains no arrest.

 

[secretsquirrel]

I have read so many articles that my head is spinning, but does anyone remember an interview with a neighbor of JAGs in Escondido who said they were surprised at the charges because he had teenage boys and girls over all the time? I thought that might give him a teen to lure her away. Just a thought. I honestly feel based on description and location of the body that there is a good chance this is unrelated to JAG and was actually a native american whose DNA is not in the database. This would explain why there hasn't been an arrest either.

I gathered from the interview that I read with the private investigator that this area was his idea and Texas Equusearch dogs got a hit so that is why the investigation was centered out there today. If their tip was from him, that also explains no arrest.

The body was positively identified as Amber's via dental records.

 

[nursebeeme]

did I already say guilty? If not get me on the freaking record: guilty, guilty, guilty, guilty, guilty. GUILTY.

 

[jjenny]

I think you'd be hard pressed to find that pattern with sexual predators.

What? Do they have more self-control than anyone else?

 

[strach304]

I don't believe for a second anyone else helped with the crime. The PI's word is not gospel and we need to take it with a grain of salt. If the info didn't come from JAG or from evidence found in searches, my guess is that either his parents revealed possible locations based on places he would go or that someone driving by saw something and didn't think it a big deal at the time but recognized his face or vehicle from the Chelsea news.

This makes the most sense and fits with LE's statements. Someone saw his pic on the news and remembered having seen him in that location. But, he must have stood out or acted suspiciously for them to remember him.

 

[secretsquirrel]

What? Do they have more self-control than anyone else?

They are different types of crimes with very different types of perpetrators. Can you think of any examples of a sexual predator who bragged about his acts? I can't even think of any who worked in teams. If there is any way that someone else who knew came forward the only way I could imagine it is if it was someone he traded child *advertiser censored* with online.

It has nothing to do with self-control it has to do with the type of crime. These are the least sympathetic of all crimes. These are the crimes that even the most hardened criminals despise.

 

[jjenny]

This makes the most sense and fits with LE's statements. Someone saw his pic on the news and remembered having seen him in that location. But, he must have stood out or acted suspiciously for them to remember him.

How many people do you think are roaming around in a remote ragged area that is so difficult to get to, that the searchers didn't even attempt to search there prior to this?

 

[secretsquirrel]

How many people do you think are roaming around in a remote ragged area that is so difficult to get to, that the searchers didn't even attempt to search there prior to this?

The point is that he had to get there as well and that he had to drive there. It's not like he dropped the body by helicopter. If he had to pull his vehicle off to the side of the road, someone could have seen it there and even seen something suspicious and their memory was triggered by recent news.

This makes a lot more sense than thinking that a previously convicted sexual predator bragged about his conquest.

 

[SoCalSleuth]

I just found this but if it's posted somewhere else please delete it mods:http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0902/26/ng.01.html

Right after Amber went missing the PI, Bill Garcia, opined that this was a Friday the 13th prank gone wrong. That never even occurred to me. That might explain why a year passed with no one saying anything--because it was a kid. I just can't see an adult sitting on this--a kid yes-- a kid would be more likely to be afraid to come forwardm if they were somehow involved. I swear I just saw a movie trailer where this was the exact premise of the movie--a prank gone awry, a murdered girl, and no one talking. (Not that that has any relevance here--just a strange coincidence). It would also help explain why no arrests--although they could arrest a juvenile right away --if they were trying to sort out if it were just a horrific accident --they may have to wait on the DA to see what they could charge. Just thought I would throw this out there.

 

[Julie111475]

Hi! I am a daily reader of WS on many different cases, but this is my first official post (just a bit intimidated at times, but not in a bad way you all AMAZE me)!!! I had a thought as to why this could have been so hush hush yesterday and at such an early hour for the discovery. Could LE have brought either JAG or his family in to identify the site and give the exact location of the spot , and that was the need for obvious security and the reason to throw the media off with the supposed search of the other park????

 

[jjenny]

They are different types of crimes with very different types of perpetrators. Can you think of any examples of a sexual predator who bragged about his acts? I can't even think of any who worked in teams. If there is any way that someone else who knew came forward the only way I could imagine it is if it was someone he traded child *advertiser censored* with online.

It has nothing to do with self-control it has to do with the type of crime. These are the least sympathetic of all crimes. These are the crimes that even the most hardened criminals despise.

How about this guy? He didn't just brag, he put it in writing.
"Mr. Kaine, a Democrat, noted that the confessions contradicted forensic evidence, that no physical evidence linked the four men to the crime scene and that another man, Omar A. Ballard, had confessed, asserting that he had acted alone.

Moreover, Mr. Ballard’s DNA matched the only DNA evidence found at the scene, and he bragged about the crime in a letter to an acquaintance, who notified the authorities. Mr. Ballard was later also convicted of Ms. Moore-Bosko’s rape and murder and is serving time. The tidy appearance of Ms. Moore-Bosko’s apartment and the pattern of her wounds also suggested a single assailant."
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/07/us/07norfolk.html

 

[socalsuz]

Lily, ITA about maybe JAG used another teen to lure Amber away....The thing about him having teens over all the time to play videos...And didn't people see Amber talking with a dark skinned boy on her way to school? Maybe this kid lured Amber away and JAG took full advantage of it...

 

[jjenny]

I just found this but if it's posted somewhere else please delete it mods:http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0902/26/ng.01.html

Right after Amber went missing the PI, Bill Garcia, opined that this was a Friday the 13th prank gone wrong. That never even occurred to me. That might explain why a year passed with no one saying anything--because it was a kid. I just can't see an adult sitting on this--a kid yes-- a kid would be more likely to be afraid to come forwardm if they were somehow involved. I swear I just saw a movie trailer where this was the exact premise of the movie--a prank gone awry, a murdered girl, and no one talking. (Not that that has any relevance here--just a strange coincidence). It would also help explain why no arrests--although they could arrest a juvenile right away --if they were trying to sort out if it were just a horrific accident --they may have to wait on the DA to see what they could charge. Just thought I would throw this out there.

Is the name of the movie is "Sorority row?" Unless you are thinking of something else? A senseless prank-somehow to me that seems even worse.

 

[secretsquirrel]

How about this guy? He didn't just brag, he put it in writing.
"Mr. Kaine, a Democrat, noted that the confessions contradicted forensic evidence, that no physical evidence linked the four men to the crime scene and that another man, Omar A. Ballard, had confessed, asserting that he had acted alone.

Moreover, Mr. Ballard’s DNA matched the only DNA evidence found at the scene, and he bragged about the crime in a letter to an acquaintance, who notified the authorities. Mr. Ballard was later also convicted of Ms. Moore-Bosko’s rape and murder and is serving time. The tidy appearance of Ms. Moore-Bosko’s apartment and the pattern of her wounds also suggested a single assailant."
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/07/us/07norfolk.html

Are you sure you want to use that as your example? I suggest you read the entire article first.