Okay, here is my prfile. It's just copy and paste from the Brendt-website. The original is from spring 2011 and I added a little new details in February 2012, as you can see not much. You may notice, that this profile deals with LISK and only with LISK, Manorville is another matter.
I should add, since I didn't update my website, that he is also a left-handed person and that chances are, he will be back at the East Coast about middle of May.
This is part 1 of 2 since the whole is too long for one post ...
Preface
This is an open case. Not the first one, but the first, I offically add to the collection. Earlier profiles in open cases were mostly posted in form of Yahoo comments, for example in the case of the Flint-Stabber Abuelazam. As usual, profiles for open case draw even more upset comments than the other ones and also as usual, when they were later, in the hindsight, right head on, they are not mentioned anymore. Admittedly, that would maybe bother me, if I would do this for recognization. But I don't. So feel free to send my nasty emails, but don't expect me to read them.
This profile is written for the intent and purpose of learning and giving some new thoughts into the ongoing investigation. So generally, any other use of parts of this profile or the whole works demand the written consense of the copyright holders Diane and Peter Brendt. This consent is assumed given for law enforcement using this in an ongoing investigation. Feel free to use it or not.
Victimology
Before we can talk about certain details of the victimology in this case, we have to figure out, which victims are really on account of Long Island II. Including the Atlantic City victims, which mostly were drawn into that mess by the media, we have six groups of victims:
Group one: The first four bodies found. Those were identified as Craiglist prostitutes Megan Waterman, Melissa Barthelmy, Amber Lynn Costello and Maureen Brainard-Barnes.
Group two: Two partial sets of dismembered bodies, Jessica Taylor and Jane-Doe-6, of which the other parts were found near Manorville
Group three: The four Atlantic City victims, which were found in Atlantic City, staged, lying face down, head turned eastwards, without shoes, normally in water canals/sewers near a construction site.
Group four: one dead infant wrapped in a blanket
Group five: one dead Asian male in the late teens or early twenties
Group six: Shannan Gilbert, who was seen fleeing, but was not found yet
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Of course, the attempts first to deny there is any serial killer on the lose and then to say nothing to the public by the Suffolk PD doesn't make the life easier here and so isn't the blockade attitude of the NYPD helping either. Still, the differences are significant enough to make some educated guesses.
We can't say too much about Group six, with Shannan Gilbert as only member. She was seen alive after she fled from John Brewer's house at Oak Beach. She was a Craiglist prostitute (I am aware, the political correct term would be Craigslist escort, but she didn't escort, she sold sex, end of the story) as the four victims in group one. She also had a history of drug abuse, which probably brought her into prostitution just like the four victims in group one. However, the details for group one point out, their killer was not a local of Long Island or rather only for some moths per year. I will come back to that, when I look at group one. But my point is, the man, who killed them lives more likely in New York, than on Long Island, especially as far as the island part is concerned.
Shannan Gilbert was last seen on Long Island, on the island itself, which makes it unlikely, it was the same man. Therefore I dismiss her form this casefile and will at a later time either open a new one or, in case, she became a victim of another serial killer, add her to that file.
[Addendum Dec 2011] In the meantime, since I wrote this profile in July of 2011, Shannan Gilbert's body has been found in the overgrown parts near Oak Beach. Parts of her belongings were strewn out in the vicinity including her purse with her ID in it. So, we don't know yet, was she murdered or not, the results of the ME's examination of the remains are still unknown as of end of December of 2011. The official "guess", and it isn't more than a guess at all, is, she drowned. Which is not as impossible as it sounds, even given the fact, that there is only shallow water around. It's a pretty swampy area there, I hear. However, a lot of other things are possible as well and as long as there is nothing known about the ME's report, I can't be too sure, what it was.
However, there are some details, that should make one think. For example, we can for obvious reasons exclude the idea, she spread out her belongings post-mortem. Dead people don't do such things. We can also forget about any theories, she did it before she died. She was, according to at least one witness, running in a disoriented panic mode. She was running! And while someone is running he may lose some items, but for sure it's hard to pull off your jeans while you're running. Aside of it, there wouldn't be a reson at all. So the conclusion is, she didn't wear them in the first place. And that means, someone felt at least the urge to cover up her death, whether this unknown person has killed her or not. And gain, however, we can see here a different mind at work as in the case of the Long Islang II Killler (aka LISK nowadays by people who have forgotten already about the First Long Island Killer, Joel Rifkin). This cover up is sloppy and shows no imagination, no ritual aspects, not even basic experience in the most low level aspects of forensic countermeasure. Whoever tried this, he surely wasn't an experienced serial killer. This makes the case of Shannan Gilbert unrelated to the four victims found not far from Oak Beach wrapped in burlap. Or in other words, this part, I got already right in the original profile from July of 2011
Group five has also only one member. There is no official identification yet, even, it could well be, the victim is Jimmy Tsui, a student, who disappeared in summer 1998. Decomposition of the body, a complete one, would suggest, he died long before the first of the victims in group one. Time frame, gender and the fact, the body was dropped completely, distinguish this victim from group one and two. Therefore, I dismiss him from this casefile and open a new one as needed.
[Addendum Dec 2011] There is a chance, this person, who was, as was unknown when I wrote the original profile, wearing woman's clothes, worked as male prostitute. Nothing yet is proven, so it's a mere guess. But if so, it would explain, it would make a scenario possible in which the Manorville killer, not the Long Island II killer, would may have caught, what he thought to be a woman and gut uncontrolled out of control when he found out the truth. This would also explain, why he didn't after the kill bother to dismamember the body. The vicitm wasn't right and therefore no trophy. But then, this case file is about Long Island II, not Manorville, so I would come back to this, when I open a file for Manorville.
Group four is the dead infant. Note, all we know from those tight-lipped guys in NJ is, it was probably a girl, a toddler. Not a newborn baby. Children of the age of 2-3 years don't go missing unnoticed, but obviously in this case, there was no missing child report. This indicates the involvement of at least one parent/step parent or as alternative option, the import of the child. Which both would be pretty nasty but not part of the serial killer investigation. Age and details distinguish this victim from group one and two and therefore, I have to dismiss her from this file.
[Addendum Dec 2011] In the meantime, we heard from Law Enforcement, this child, and it wasn't a toddler at all, was linked to Jane Doe #6, the partial remains found at the beach while the rest was found in Manorville. I admit, this was a surprise, but then, it would explain, why there was no missing child report in the firstplace - because the mother was dead. Being killed by the same killer as the child would count as involvement, true, but then, it wasn't what I suspected originally.
Group three, the four Atlantic City victims of the Atlantic City Murders from 2006, Barbara Breidor, Tracy Ann Roberts, Molly Jean Dilts and Kim Raffo, were early dragged into this case by the media, claiming some similarity. But there are not much similarites. While group one were Craigslist prostitutes, soliciting business via the internet, the Atlantic City victims of group three had street corners. And the price difference between the Atlantic City victims and the Long Island ones in group one was about factor ten. But the final prove, those cases (group one, two and three) was delivered by the killers. Group one was killed by someone who basically dumped the bodies and didn't even care whether they would found or not. [Addendum Dec 2011] There are hints, the Long Island II Killer may or may not revisited the dump sites of the four bodies at Gilgo Beach. However, all attempts, to figure that detail out, either by amatuer sleuths from the area via Websleuths or via the local law enforcement, ran into brick walls. So if someone lives in the area and wants to offer help with some non-dangeorus legwork, it would be highly appreciated.
Group two was killed by someone with a hang to dismembering bodies and spreading them out over many miles as established part in his signature, which is an entirely different thing than just strangling and dropping the bodies in one piece along the beach. And group three was killed by someone who staged his victims to make a point. It wasn't his fault that the SCPD nor the police in Manorville didn't get the memo, was it?
So, taking aside the single kills and the Atlantic City murders, we have basically the work of two serial killers here, as even the shortest look on the victimology should point out.
[Addendum Dec 2011] I said back in July "should". Anyway, Suffolk County Police Commissioner Richard Dormer told the news, Law Enforcement believes, this was all the work of one serial killer. But then, Dormer once believed, Shannan Gilbert was connected to the case, his guys believed, it was a black cop, they believed, the killer has experience with forensic counter measure and yes, in the beginning, as in December 2010, Richard Dormer was also the guy, who said, he didn't believe any of this was the work of a serial killer. So what Richard Dromer says may offer an interestic insight in Richard Dormer's psychopathology, but by that, the insight in anything seems already to end. Maybe he or his men should really take a look at this "should".
Now, this is, when the experts normally start to cry and groan. Two serial killers in one place? What are the odds? They will not buy it. Which ultimately means, they haven't studied the subject well enough. Not only is there a high probability to have more than one in one area, for Long Island, this probability is also even more increased because of the logical necessities of the wider surroundings. While Jeffrey Dahmer was around, also Otis Toole was around and so was Henry Lucas. Thousands of miles distant, but still near enough to come in struggle when it came to the murder on Adam Walsh and it isn't entirely solved, whether Oris Toole or Jeffrey Dahmer or maybe even a third one killed the boy at a certain palce and a certain time. Toole and Lucas also crossed the hunting grounds of Shuflin, Shore and half a dozen other seiral killers in Texas.
Or take other cases: David Franklin, the Grim Sleeper, had a competitor in his own backyard, Anthony Sowell in Ohio even two. Ted Bundy, prolific as he was, crossed at least the pathes of three more of which one was William Cosden, another one could be Warren Forrest and the third one was never caught but killed girls from gas stations, working his way South. And of cause, Rodney Alcala, the Dating Game Killer, had his own run ins in the New York area with Rifkin and in California with half a dozen (I'm not sure whether serial killers like the sun or just California, but they tend to gravitate to the land of fruits and nuts). So, it is not unusual to have two in one area, it is rather unusual to have ONLY two in an area with an urban agglomeration like New York City basically just behind the horizon. Long Island however has an even higher probabilty to become dumping ground because for a lot of New Yorkers, it is probably the only area with some remote area, they have ever heard of. Bottom line is, we have two, Long Island II (I dubbed him that because Rifkin was Long Island I) and the Manorville Torso Killer, who killed the group two victims. Manorville Torso is subject to a casefile on its own at a later time.
So lets concentrate on group one, this is Long Island II in his purest form, is it? Lets have a look at those victims:
Melissa Barthelmy Amber Lynn Costello
Maureen Brainard-Barnes Megan Waterman
What we see here, is a collection of four victims doing the same thing (offering sexual services via Craigslist) for mostly the same reasons. All four have a history of drug abuse, but at least one was a mother and had therefore become clean in the process. They share no similar appearance beyond the fact, they were women and honestly, even if they were looking not too bad, their past was visible. But the most signficant point is, they were different types. This negates on the first glance the theory of a simple lustmurderer, type sadist 101. I am well aware, the male Caucasian psychopath/sadist 101 is the preferred profile of the FBI in these days and I admit, this type of serial killer exists, but they have all one thing in common: They pick their victims by a certain type of appearance that is attractive to them and, as with other males too, this normally includes predominant basics, like length of hair, hair color, a certain type of face. These victims in group one have none of these attributes in common. The notable part is here, that we can't even get a similar type if we would try to dismiss one as accidental.
Derivations from a set pattern can occur, as we can see for example in the Bundy case, if the life circumstances of the killer change or the final spiral down starts. But in this case, we don't talk derivation because there is no set pattern at all. This guy loves his change. Really? Take a closer look, all four are Caucasian. Now, one thing, we all heard is, that serial killers kill usually in their own ethnicity. Only, this isn't entirely true anymore, it was highly likely thirty years ago and in the meantime, the market has changed. Victimologies like this, with constant ethnicity and gender but otherwise all over the place are rather known from a certain kind of serial rapist, for example the Waldo-Rapist. This killer most likely is no white lustmurderer, he is most likely a black racial motivated anger assault rapist. Amnd yes, I know, to mention this was highly political incorrect, but there it is and sometimes realities come in the way of political correctness.
There is another interesting detail in the victimology. All victims would classify as high risk victims or, in the percent scale I prefer, about 75% risk victims. This is a slightly lower risk classification than for a street corner prostitute because the original contact is unpersonal and has to start with an action by the client. Especially in the case of Amber Lynn Costello, we know also, she had taken some precautions. It didn't help her. But read the events as her room mate Dave Schaller has told them: She felt comfortable with the client who called that evening several times, that means, she knew him. And if we compare that to Melissa Barthelmy, who also met with a client and had later still time to deposit money in her bank account, we see here the same picture. [Addendum Dec 2011] In the meantime, it appears, Melissa Barthelmy deposited $900 before she met the client. Which should make one think about from where she had that money in the first place. But we know also in the meantime, Maureen Brainard-Barnes made phone calls from the Port Aiuthority Bus Terminal in NYC and had rented a hotel room during the day only some streets away, which places another victim to NYC
At least two, maybe three, of the victims went out to meet with a client and likely weren't killed by that client. Now add Megan Waterman. She stayed in a motel, with her pimp. We know, the pimp isn't the serial killer, he wasn't out of prison for some of the murders, so we can dismiss him as suspect. Here is the point: Waterman lived in NY, she was only for some days there, probably meeting with clients as well, Maybe even takin some days of with her boyfriend/pimp[Addendum Dec 2011] In the meantime, we know from the testimony of her mother, he and her pimp went usually twice a month to Long Island, right to the Island. She too lived after the initial meeting. And now take a look at Maureen Brainard Barnes. She was last seen leaving Norwich! Not with a John or anything, but just driving from her mother's home to New York City, where she had a hotel room to meet with clients. NYC, not Long Island! Of course, if the police wouldn't sit on all the detail information, we would be more certain, but not without reason is the average time between finding the first body and catching a serial killer 17 years (in NY and NJ) and even if a victim escapes and calls the police it takes normally a year. We shouldn't expect too much from them, should we?
But the few details, we know about the victim's activities tell us what exactly? Lets reword this: We have one victim that definitively was on the way back from a client (Melissa Barthelmy), we have one who visited a client, she felt comfortable with and who was by all appearance a regular (Amber Lynn Costello), one victim who appears to haven't even any contact with clients in Long Island that day (Maureen Brainard-Barnes), she disappeared and only one, we can't say whether she had a date that night or not, but was on the Island (Megan Waterman).
This picture doesn't indicate a mad John hunting on Craigslist. It can be, he also browsed Craiglist, that is possible, but he had information, a normal Craigslist client wouldn't have. Those ladies don't mail all other clients that they have no time that day because they visit their families or have made out with another client. But that indicates, this unsub stalks his victims. This would also be consistent with a racial motivated anger assault rapist. The picking of victims for that kind normally happens by seeing them in nature, not by email. Turning into killers is rare, but the whole type is on the raise, so we will probably see it in the future more often.
Another notable detail are the dates of disappearence:
July 9th, 2007 - Maureen Brainard-Barnes
July 10th, 2009 - Melissa Barthelmy
June 6th, 2010 - Megan Waterman
Sept. 2nd, 2010 - Amber Lynn Costello
You notice, one victim was attacked in 2007, one in 2009 and two in 2010. This would at the first glance indicate a developing killer. But the signature (strangulation, wrapping in burlap, dropping them without any sign of remorse at Gilgo Beach) is already in the case of Maureen Brainard-Barnes fully established. Even more, there were only phone calls to the sister of the last victim, not the earlier ones. This indicates a fully developed serial killer who has already reached the point, he needs to add an extra-kick. However, for a pure lustmurderer, a sexual psychopath, such a long cool down together with a fully established signature appears rather rare.
But there is another interesting detail. All the victims disappeared in the time from early June to early September. And of course, the gaps between Brainard-Barnes. Barthelmy and Waterman are pretty big. Given the fact, we have here already a fully established signature, it is unlikely, those are the only victims. The cool down times are simply too long. Of course, a report from the ME would help to figure whether there are little details still indicate a form of development, but by all means, this is too long. In connection with the fact, they all disappeared in the summer months, I would guess, this killer lives only for a part of the year, those three months from June to September, in the area. And please, draw the term "area" here pretty wide. But if this is right, it also means, there are other victims somewhere else in the US and they can be virtually everywhere.
Of course, it would be interesting to have more details, for example about the burlap sacks or some details of authopsy (Amber Lynn Costello was only three months missing, so there is a weak chance, ligature marks or defense wounds would be still recognizable), but right now, the police sits on them and only hell knows what they are doing with that knowledge. So at this point, there isn't much more to win from the victimology due to lack of published details.
[Addendum Dec 2011] Till December of 2011, this hasn't changed. There were sketches of the Aisan male and Jane Dow 6 and some pictures of jewelry, but nothing more about the four victims found at Gilgo Beach. So, given the average speed of law enforcement in serial killer cases, we have to state, one year is over, only sixteen more to go.
