Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #3

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Criminologist Xanthe Mallett speaking on channel nines breakfast show this morning:


Interesting language used around 2:00 mark.

Language used lines up with VICPOL helicopter searches.

Xanthe Mallett info: Associate Professor Xanthe Mallett / Staff Profile / The University of Newcastle, Australia
Anyone else get the impression they are talking about ‘abduction’ IMO

Police are confident she entered the forest but don’t believe she is in the forest anymore.

Hopefully the search this Saturday will discover something.
 
So if police are confident she entered the forest, are they confident that she also left it but not saying?
Maybe the whole timeline is wrong, and she came home from the run, and whatever happened to her was on the way to, or at the meeting?
 
Summarized the content of the police press conference:

From a video posted 13 days ago (around 9th Feb)

- "we have some information we are utilising to inform our search areas"
- particularly interested in CCTV/dashcam footage of Ballarat East, Canadian and Mount Helen - to the east of Geelong Road (also may be called Main Rd).
- Buningyong - reporter asked why this was initially included in search then "ruled out"? (it looks like this area was actually searched again by police helicopter on 17th Feb) - "there was information provided to us that lead us to that area" - reporter (same one) "are you still collecting information from Sam's phone" - police officer blinks and says "that informs part of the information I have been referring to" (Buningyong was the first area searched which makes me feel that the were going off the most recent ping/data which makes sense if someone is missing)
- items found were mentioned, but "they do not have a direct connection to the case at this time" (noting this press conference was 13 days ago)
- mine shafts deemed relevant? "not at this point"
- Journalist mentions having info that LE may be looking into a 'movement' at a Ballarat Hospitality venue prior to SM's disappearance - journalist asks "is there any truth to that?" police officer says "yeah I don't have anything to provide comment on that at this time" (didn't answer)
- asked if anyone knew her planned route - police say they understand she had a routine and regularly went out walking and running in 'those areas' but they are not aware of her "exact route"
- CCTV still of her in her clothing (dark red top) is from that morning - Sun 4th Feb - confirmed by police officer
- police officer said they don't have absolute confirmation that the other CCTV released of runner is SM (later, released info that this was not SM as the runner in the footage came forward)
-
Journalist asks "any further phone pings or have you been able to track anything from her watch?" police officer : "I wont' comment on any of that particular detail but I will say that forms all of the investigation and the information that we are using to direct our search" (this seems like a very specific statement, on reflection)
- "we are still looking for all of the relevant information to help us find some answers for Sam's family"
- asked re bank cards/accounts : "I won't go into the particulars of the investigation"
- Journalist asks "does the cctv from the house show anyone else leaving the home after Sam" - police officer "I'm not going to make any further comment on that"
- asked to comment on search so far "very comprehensive, an extensive search" "there's been a huge amount of resources directed at it" (this comment, then missing persons unit and then specialized LE from other areas of the police force being brought in ring alarm bells to me that this could indeed be part of a multi-case case - there is some pattern that warrants this additional resource).
-
asked if SM had any history of mental health issues "I won't go into that in this....forum, thanks"
- asked if she had a time SM was reported missing "in the morning, on Sunday"
 
So if police are confident she entered the forest, are they confident that she also left it but not saying?
Agree …. I am also assuming they have tracked, with some form of data, Sam leaving the forest, hence why the called off the search of the forest so quickly ….

However, I wonder what information Police have that suggests that it was actually Sam with her mobile, watch etc when she left the forest???

Rather than it being snatched away from her in the forest and taken by an attacker towards Buninyong ? (And possibly ditched there?? )

IMO
 
So mondayschild - do you think it's got anything to do with this other meeting SM had lined up before the family get together? JMO

Could SM have been going to help someone who had a problem - related to this multi-case-case which the other detectives were working on? and someone intervened before she had a chance to meet up with them?MOO
 
So mondayschild - do you think it's got anything to do with this other meeting SM had lined up before the family get together? JMO

Could SM have been going to help someone who had a problem - related to this multi-case-case which the other detectives were working on? and someone intervened before she had a chance to meet up with them?MOO

I do think it must relate to the other meeting but if she or MM sensed danger then she would not have gone alone. I wonder if MM sensed danger hence was very quick to alert LE, who were similarly quick to allocate resources. Could LE have been informed / monitoring the meeting somehow? Lots of questions.
 
The thing I have a problem with regarding that statement, in the Herald Sun is as follows:

Who told them that Police believe that?? (It’s been cleverly written to look like police told them …. )

The Herald Sun has been told police believe Ms Murphy made it into the forest area where she regularly ran.


BBM


Is it the same source as News.com??? (See quote above and BBM) Dr Xanthe Mallet??? Who actually isn’t involved in the investigation, but just adding commentary??


IMO



Yes- Dr. Xanthe Mallet, I've read a lot this morning and a bit confused, hence asking WS, what the fudge is going on?
 
Is there any possibility of an animal attack?
Hmm. There aren't any large land predator animals in Australia that would be capable of attacking a fully grown person and leaving no trace of them/the attack, IMO. We don't have bears or big cats etc. There are crocodiles, of course-- but they are in areas with bodies of water. I don't believe there are crocs in VIC. It might be too cold for them down there.

Apologies if this has been discussed in these threads previously.
 
no, the only attacks in Australia from animals would be on the coast- sharks etc, up North- crocs, etc.
always a possibility of course of snake bite, snakes are venomous and defensive, they don't attack
-Given that LE / volunteers have not found a body, hard to say if snake was at fault
Is there any possibility of an animal attack?
 
Hmm. There aren't any large land predator animals in Australia that would be capable of attacking a fully grown person and leaving no trace of them/the attack, IMO. We don't have bears or big cats etc. There are crocodiles, of course-- but they are in areas with bodies of water. I don't believe there are crocs in VIC. It might be too cold for them down there.

Apologies if this has been discussed in these threads previously.
I have a thing for wildlife. Crocs are in WA, NT, Qld, and outlying islands. Pretty much North of the Tropic of Capricorn, given spurious examples south of the line.
 
Can anyone look up Polair flight paths or do you need access through membership?
Anyone can look them up …
This post has the first Sunday’s (4 Feb) map and a link at the bottom ..

Post in thread 'Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024'
Australia - Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024
 
Can anyone look up Polair flight paths or do you need access through membership?
Use:


(*ADS-B Exchange - track aircraft live*)

You can select dates/time and playback speed etc at the bottom - this will give you replay of area (zoom in and out)

This is the link for orig flight path on day one (UTC is 11 hours behind AEDT)

 
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