Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #4

[ProfCluezo]

Can any locals comment on the likelihood of an accidental hit and run occurring at this specific location at Mt Clear at 8am on a Sunday?

 

[Dotta]

This is the opinion I have after tonight’s show (maybe, as well?), that the electronic data is indicating SM has been hit by a car (heart rate, stride length, gps etc).
SM wearing ear pods only helps this theory IMO.

So does it mean random?

Hit and run?
Panicked body removal?

I haven't watched the show as I don't live in Australia but I hope to catch it on YouTube.
I'm interested to see this trail, see the scenery.
I'm really keen to watch it.

 

[Dotta]

I think there may be a few people who took part in the search now going over any unusual behaviour they remember from other searchers.

What a shame that integrity of selfless people who devoted their time and energy to searches will be now looked at suspiciously.

As I said earlier, this case is a heavy burden for locals/local community.

By the way,
I remember reading that female searchers were bothered by some men who appeared in this area.

 

[Dotta]

I'm catching up on the thread.

This info about a distant relative changing the tyres soon after
is...ummm...worrying???

But it might be unfortunate coincidence.

I mean, it would be so stupid to do for a perp.
So obvious.
I hope it was thoroughly checked by Police.

But, if it was a family member, then the accident and death of Samantha's dog is suspicious also IMO.

 

[investigatefred]

Haven't got to watch it all yet, but sharing- As Samantha Murphy's disappearance enters fourth week, Ballarat residents continue search

 

[Cedars]

It is really not giving the public much to go on though, and a lot of people probably would not bother reporting a damaged car unless it aligned with something particular about the car, eg make/model or colour or some other identifying feature.

Maybe this is the point though, and this message about a damaged car is not meant for the public, but rather to rattle the perpetrators.

I haven't watched the show, but from other cases, I think the message about a damaged car would be oriented towards people who associate with someone who, suddenly on the 4th/5th of February, appeared with noticeable damage on their car, which they can't really explain.

Neighbours, family, friends, work, colleagues. IMO police are not speaking to armchair sleuths.

I think this is in association with repeated requests by LE to not speculate about the crime because people may fail to notice important evidence. ie, when everyone is saying it's the husband for sure, then no one will pay attention to, for eg., the new damage at the front of the pizza delivery guy's car.

I think police approach this subject very indirectly, they don't want the, eg, pizza delivery guy to give his car a through wash removing all forensic evidence, or do anything drastic to get rid of the vehicle.

Police may have a request out to all repair shops to alert them to any damaged vehicle that comes in.

The kind of damage from hitting another car, or static object, will probably be different from the damage in hitting a person. Also, the person with damage won't have, or want, to file an insurance report, as that requires witnesses.

JMO

 

[Cedars]

They would have had to get permission from the police first before they aired the show as it's still an active investigation, where there are people of interest, who most likely would be watching

The police would have wanted to see the script on what was going to be discussed, as to not jeopardise the investigation and they would have been told on what not to say

Why do you believe there was a 'script'? Show invites some 'experts' they speculate off the top of their heads. IMO, these shows are not scripted.

JMO

 

[Sonny_Jay]

A deviation from my recent posts. Just watched Sam's daughter's comments in her press conference. I am now considering if she targeted due to the business. Just Jess's comment " Mum is a very strong woman and far to determined to give up this fight".
What fight is this??????

I first knew anything of this case seeing Jess on the news. Without prior knowledge I assumed (for a minute) this was a daughter speaking out whose mother was either known or thought to have been abducted.

 

[nightrider17]

If there are 2 people involved - possibly more chance they will talk to each other at some point? IMO

Especially if they feel any attention/heat coming their way. MOO

Also wondering if someone/two people planned this - then there maybe data from these people's phones in the days prior or similar time a week earlier, scoping the area? IMO

So even if they didn't take these devises with them on the actual day they could have been there the day before with their devices.JMO

Interesting what information Police may be able to track coming from a car in the area due to GPS signal/navigation. JMO

 

[LeahBee]

I'm not reading too much into the damaged car comment yet. LE was just giving examples of things when saying report ANYTHING unusual, such as... damaged vehicle, damaged property, etc. There could very well have been a vehicle involved but LE didn't expand on that anymore than they did about any other suspicious/usual things to look out for. Imo

 

[Cedars]

Damaged car is so very specific. Did they give any indication of what they think happened to the car?

IMO, a police investigation is about following any leads in order to find evidence. Not every lead will take you to evidence, but they must follow up on them all. They don't develop tunnel vision so that they won't bother investigating leads, because they mistakenly believe they 'know' what happened. Police don't know anything, except concrete evidence that generates proof that can be used in court to convict an offender.

LE haven't given the make and model of a vehicle, so IMO they don't know that. So, IMO, they have no eyewitness or CCTV.
They may have evidence, or they may be speculating, that the way she was disabled was by being hit with a car. Hitting someone with a car often leaves damage. So LE asks the public to report vehicles with damage. They think: Maybe we'll be lucky, someone will report the vehicle, we'll find forensic proof of the victim on or in the vehicle, we'll have identified the perp. It's worth doing, because, in other cases, it has yielded important evidence.

JMO

 

[imstilla.grandma]

He also explained the police’s interest in the damaged car was a huge clue, given they “didn’t just say a car, they said a damaged car, it’s so specific”.

“So was that damage caused with this incident or was that damage because someone saw a damaged car leave?”

However, Silvester suggested someone among the search party could be operating with ill-intent to throwing police off the scent that someone who knows Murphy or is an upstanding member of the community could be behind her disappearance.

“Police will also be considering that one of those searchers is the [alleged] killer in that they have inculcated themselves into that situation to be seen as part of the community, but also keeping an eye on what’s going on,” he explained.

'Psychopathic': New car clue sparks hope in missing mum case

A new approach by police could flip the search for Samantha Murphy on its head.

www.nzherald.co.nz

'If I were to lay my cards on the table, it would be towards [the attacker] being a very organised and planned psychopathic predator,' he said.

'They're usually very damaged. Psychologically they're cold, they're callous, they're bold, they're daring. They're usually very intelligent.

'If they were the psychopathic type of predator, they would know that area like the back of their hand.'

Dr Ashkar added a 'psychopathic predator' is often able to 'get very close to the victim' as 'they don't appear different to anyone else in the community'.

For technology specialist Nigel Phair, there was another glaring sign police could be dealing with a high-calibre criminal.

Experts' new theories on what happened to missing mum Samantha Murphy

A group of experts have shared new theories on what could have happened to missing Ballarat mother, Samantha Murphy.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[kiwi50]

I'm catching up on the thread.

This info about a distant relative changing the tyres soon after
is...ummm...worrying???

But it might be unfortunate coincidence.

I mean, it would be so stupid to do for a perp.
So obvious.
I hope it was thoroughly checked by Police.

But, if it was a family member, then the accident and death of Samantha's dog is suspicious also IMO.

Could be extra worrying if it was the relation with rumoured AVO against them.

 

[Investig8r]

LE haven't given the make and model of a vehicle, so IMO they don't know that. So, IMO, they have no eyewitness or CCTV.
They may have evidence, or they may be speculating, that the way she was disabled was by being hit with a car. Hitting someone with a car often leaves damage. So LE asks the public to report vehicles with damage. They think: Maybe we'll be lucky, someone will report the vehicle, we'll find forensic proof of the victim on or in the vehicle, we'll have identified the perp. It's worth doing, because, in other cases, it has yielded important evidence.

Agree Cedars.

It may be possible they have the car parts and not the car - they may know something about the car but they are wanting the public assistance to come forward with the evidence.

IMO - if a car was damaged and given the amount of media/interest in this case - the car would be either hidden (garage/bush) or torched/destroyed (? Fires in Melbourne) Perhaps scrapped - should check scrap car yards. They would also want repair shops to keep an eye out for a damaged car coming in….

 

[Deleted member 293720]

What a shame that integrity of selfless people who devoted their time and energy to searches will be now looked at suspiciously.

As I said earlier, this case is a heavy burden for locals/local community.

By the way,
I remember reading that female searchers were bothered by some men who appeared in this area.

It's common for the perpetrator/s to get involved with searches

They can hear any gossip, see if any evidence has been picked up

And if there were rumours in the town about somebody, the fact they took the time to go out to search and stand with the community, these rumours could be dismissed

And people think, that person is just one of us, concerned for Samantha

It's a smoke screen

 

[Deleted member 293720]

Damaged car is so very specific. Did they give any indication of what they think happened to the car?

The police seem very interested in the family business, so it might have ended up in there, fixed and possibly spray-painted as well

 

[Dotta]

It's common for the perpetrator/s to get involved with searches

They can hear any gossip, see if any evidence has been picked up

And if there were rumours in the town about somebody, the fact they took the time to go out to search and stand with the community, these rumours could be dismissed

And people think, that person is just one of us, concerned for Samantha

It's a smoke screen

I understand.

But...
Imagine being an innocent helpful searcher and suddenly you are a poi b/c someone thought you behaved weirdly (according to somebody) during the search.

This atmosphere of suspiciousness among searchers bothers me.
It poisons solidarity.
And might keep people from searches.

JMO

 

[Deleted member 293720]

I think it's going to be a challenge to find the needle in a haystack of needles - a vehicle with body damage in a country town.

I say that as someone who has lived rural.

(Kangaroos just throw themselves in front of you.)

MOO

Ironically, the family own the biggest smash repair place in the town

Which is a good start

I am sure the police know exactly what they are looking for, they would have spoken to workers there and possibly

CCTV footage of the vehicle been driven in and out, late at night

Possibly, work still be carried throughout night at the business

 

[Malibuandcoke]

Well that show wasn't that useful

Disagree, very useful for the police I would imagine

 

[Malibuandcoke]

Well that show wasn't that useful

Disagree, very useful for the police I would imagine