Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #4

[southgoldengirl]

It would be great if media had a little rating symbol at the start of an article. A bit like the way movies are rated. Here are some suggestions.

FB - based on facts
FC - fact checked
SG - some guesswork
CG - complete guesswork
AI - generated using ai
OB - all opinion based

This post is rated OB. Opinion based

Another one needs to be added

UBS - utter bs

 

[Naobh]

so based on this running time graph, it does seem like a slower run for sm, if she was an advanced runner, i wonder if she might have been unwell that day?

Average Time to Run 7km (By Age Gender & Speed)​

Average Time to Run 7 km For Females
Age	Beginners	Intermediate	Advanced
15-20	51:20	35:07	28:35
20-25	51:55	32:05	28:00
25-30	52:02	32:26	28:28
30-35	52:16	32:54	28:56
35-40	53:19	34:04	29:38
40-45	53:54	34:53	31:09
45-50	54:08	35:21	32:05
50-55	54:15	36:31	32:47
55-60	59:44	39:05	34:25
60-65	01:03:14	42:07	35:21

There are many, many factors that can have an impact on running speed. For example, a male is going to run faster than a female. Somebody running on a flat surface is going to run faster than somebody running uphill. Somebody in a quality pair of running shoes is going to be running faster than somebody wearing cheaper shoes. We are sure that you get the idea here.
What follows is a rough guide for intermediate runners. These are the times that people may be able to expect when they have been running for a good while and have really started to settle into the world of running. If you have only just started running, not only should you not be running anywhere close to 7km, but you can probably expect to add a good 20-30 minutes to these times.

Average Time to Run 7km (By Age Gender & Speed)

Average Time to Run 24km (By Age Gender & Speed) |

It's hilly I think.

IntraMaps

maps.ballarat.vic.gov.au

Tick the elevation overlay.

 

[Toowong(s)]

Superintendent Hatt claimed the 7km run to where her phone went dead took the experienced runner more than an hour - about half-an-hour longer than it should have.

Hi Nifty on the running time I was wondering the same thing, is 7am to 8am quite a bit too long to run the 7km.

Searching for some context I found this:

Average Time to Run 14 km (By Age Gender & Speed)

For beginner 50+ female a 14km run would be 1hr39min, for intermediate 1hr09min. Not sure where SM is on this scale but I believe we have read recovering from COVID and having recently taken up running again, maybe the beginner end?

So if SM was at the beginner end, and pacing herself for a 14km distance, the half way mark would be about 50 mins. Then the times we are working with are approx, eg she left around 7am (may be 7.05 or 7.10?) and arrived around 8am (maybe 7.55?). And then maybe SM had stopped for a 5 min at Mt Clear before being attacked?

So in short IMO it might check out as a normal time for SM to punch out 7km.

Edit: Looks like Bear Bear beat me too it - well played!

 

[TootsieFootsie]

Hi Nifty on the running time I was wondering the same thing, is 7am to 8am quite a bit too long to run the 7km.

It would be way too short a time for me

 

[JLZ]

It would be way too short a time for me

He also says running 7km should be easily accomplishable for just about everybody. I doubt I could run a hundred metres, irrespective of time allowed.

 

[Toowong(s)]

Plenty of people who think the law doesn't apply to them, would think nothing of stealing a vehicle if they needed one.
So I think not owning a vehicle doesn't preclude anyone from having the use of one, legally or not.

And having killed someone and wanting to hide the body might spur someone on to either get help from someone with a vehicle or steal one yourself.

Tootsie there was an interesting article in The Age today on the stolen vehicle epidemic in Melbourne.

Hotties, the must-have accessory for Melbourne’s criminals

“Hotties”, a slang term used by Melbourne’s underworld to describe a stolen car, have become a crucial ingredient in serious criminal offending, whether it’s burning up a tobacco shop or turning a gun on an enemy.

www.theage.com.au

Sorry it’s paywalled, but essentially it’s out of control and police have escalated this to a special taskforce. Crooks have easy access to stolen vehicles on demand.

 

[Oona]

Another one needs to be added

UBS - utter bs

Yes! And CB - clickbait

 

[TootsieFootsie]

Yes! And CB - clickbait

Oh I think my guess was wrong. I thought it meant cobblers

 

[BreakingNews]

Different Michael. The partner of Rebecca who camped at the scenic lookout, his name is Michael and it's claimed he lost his Apple watch.

Didn't he later find it in their van?

 

[touch]

so based on this running time graph, it does seem like a slower run for sm, if she was an advanced runner, i wonder if she might have been unwell that day?

It's not really possible to read anything into her average speed unless you know what her plan for the run was. Especially considering she is reported to run every day, she probably does different types of run each time.
There would be longer, slower runs (probably not planned for that day considering the time constraints) and shorter, faster runs - the average speed of these runs might be useful.
Then there would be other types of sessions - intervals, where you might run fast/sprint for 1 minute then slow or even walk for 2 mins to recover. Hill reps, where you might have a gentle warm-up jog out to a hill then run hard up it and turn around to recover on the way down then repeat however many times. Some runners spend a long time stretching and doing different warm-up techniques in the first parts of their runs too.
There's thousands of different variations of these types of sessions that most runners will use. The resulting average speed from these runs is pretty much useless for working out how fit/fast that person actually is.

 

[ann3244]

Could it be the campers are responsible and inserted themselves into the investigation to take the heat off them. They and their story is….lets say….weird.

I think they supposedly left the area and went back to Melbourne on the saturday, ie before it happened.

 

[ThePrince]

Can you provide a link please? As I have thought this was very suss from the start, was the weird, ripped crotch guy fabricated as a cover...
Also just wanted to say I was out for dinner at a hotel (roughly between Sam's home and Mt Clear) and they have a prominent "missing poster" of her in the dining room. Thought other followers may like to hear this.

Didn't he later find it in their van?

 

[BreakingNews]

Tootsie there was an interesting article in The Age today on the stolen vehicle epidemic in Melbourne.

Hotties, the must-have accessory for Melbourne’s criminals

“Hotties”, a slang term used by Melbourne’s underworld to describe a stolen car, have become a crucial ingredient in serious criminal offending, whether it’s burning up a tobacco shop or turning a gun on an enemy.

www.theage.com.au

Sorry it’s paywalled, but essentially it’s out of control and police have escalated this to a special taskforce. Crooks have easy access to stolen vehicles on demand.

Not just Melbourne. PolAir in Qld is circling cities constantly tracking stolen vehicles. It's out of control.

 

[ann3244]

The police have never stated the phone pinged at 5pm, that came from a very early report in the first couple of days after Samantha went missing but never confirmed by the police.

Besides, the first searches for Samatha were that Sunday afternoon shortly after 3pm, so if that info came from the ping it had to be sometime before 3pm.

IMO the phone ping came that morning when Samantha was on her run, sometime between 7 & 8am. Something then happened to Samantha around that time, and the phone was switched off.

That makes sense. I was wondering what the perpetrator was doing for 9 hours in the same area before the phone was switched off! It would be really nice to know when the last ping actually happened.

 

[BreakingNews]

Can you provide a link please? As I have thought this was very suss from the start, was the weird, ripped crotch guy fabricated as a cover...
Also just wanted to say I was out for dinner at a hotel (roughly between Sam's home and Mt Clear) and they have a prominent "missing poster" of her in the dining room. Thought other followers may like to hear this.

Oops, the link has disappeared and so has the poster from earlier. He seemed to know the lady well.

 

[SESmck]

I am quite intrigued by the turn around from initial phone call being made to police search getting underway that afternoon. To me, police must suspect something more sinister to warrant the quick turnaround and detecting of phone pings.
Maybe because it’s a regional city theres a difference, maybe because she is a female, but as a contrast - I had my own missing persons experience last year with a late 30s male relative that was reported missing to police. This relative had gone out Friday night, without a car and without a phone. Police were called on Sunday or Monday when various family members were unable to get hold of him. This relative missed work on Monday and also had employee looking for them. They didn’t resurface till Tuesday night.
Now at no point during the days he was missing was a proper ‘police search’ initiated. A local officer dropped over to the house once, relative wasn’t there, and that was it. And behaviour was all completely out of character.
IMO police must have other intelligence surrounding this to suspect something untoward involving external parties has gone on that warrants looking at phone data and launching a search.

 

[MrsWattle]

Not just Melbourne. PolAir in Qld is circling cities constantly tracking stolen vehicles. It's out of control.

The stolen vehicles are sometimes dismantled and put into containers for the Middle East. One container per day shipped.
They like certain types of cars, especially Toyota's. These stories are in newspapers and you will see lots of YouTube. Just search stolen Toyota's with machine guns middle East.
Sometimes stolen tow trucks go around picking up cars parked on the side of the road. These get dismantled.
If you are selling a toyota land cruiser the (dealer) buyer will bargain the lowest lowest possible price and the tow trucks come up the East Coast of Australia to take them to Dismantle warehouses. They mix up bought parts with stolen parts.
Every single night across Australia dozens of vehicles get stolen.
My thought today Put a tracking device in your own cars, install night vision CCTV on your homes, Australia just got an out of control crime spree run by car theft syndicates

 

[SESmck]

It reminds me of the Nicola Bullet case. Police responded to the call very quickly. It came out later that she was deemed 'high risk' due to emergency services being called to their home weeks before due to a mental health episode. In this case, police took a while to deem it as suspicious. Perhaps there was some kind of history there, health or otherwise which made Samantha 'high risk'.

 

[Deleted member 293720]

Under Investigation on this Wednesday, channel 9 at 9pm. Will be doing a story on missing Samantha

This is a good ploy with police, to keep adding the pressure to the perpetrators

Someone will break

 

[Naobh]

I am quite intrigued by the turn around from initial phone call being made to police search getting underway that afternoon. To me, police must suspect something more sinister to warrant the quick turnaround and detecting of phone pings.
Maybe because it’s a regional city theres a difference, maybe because she is a female, but as a contrast - I had my own missing persons experience last year with a late 30s male relative that was reported missing to police. This relative had gone out Friday night, without a car and without a phone. Police were called on Sunday or Monday when various family members were unable to get hold of him. This relative missed work on Monday and also had employee looking for them. They didn’t resurface till Tuesday night.
Now at no point during the days he was missing was a proper ‘police search’ initiated. A local officer dropped over to the house once, relative wasn’t there, and that was it. And behaviour was all completely out of character.
IMO police must have other intelligence surrounding this to suspect something untoward involving external parties has gone on that warrants looking at phone data and launching a search.

A single guy going walkabout on a Friday night, not wanting to take calls, he's probably at the casino, no? They didn't check with his bank and find out?