Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #5

[Awakening]

Say if she was abducted and driven away, what do you believe happened to her devices?

If LE can track biometric data from these devices (without having the device) and IF the devices remained with SM (or the perp) then LE can see if the speed changed and the route the vehicle took. I’d love to know if they have this data. I assume they would.

OR the devices were removed from SM and destroyed. But if there was a ping at 5pm that tells me the device was not destroyed until later in the day on 4 Feb.

Therefore I would assume that LE have access to data that shows the movement of SM’s device(s) AFTER the 8am ‘incident’ at Mt Clear.

Remembering too that they have asked for CCTV / dash cam footage up until 7pm that day.

IMO possible timeline:

• 7am - SM goes running
• 8am - ‘incident’ at Mt Clear uncovered through phone data
• Between 8am and 5pm - SM’s device(s) move around / ping either attached or not to SM or in perps possession and LE have this data
• 5pm - devices destroyed

All MOO

I’ve wondered if the phone was immediately turned off but not the watch?

Because those watches are not easy to turn off. I’ve had one for four years and still couldn’t tell you.

 

[Awakening]

• Between 8am and 5pm - SM’s device(s) move around / ping either attached or not to SM or in perps possession and LE have this data

In this scenario it makes me wonder if the perps wanted something off her devices?

Once they had what they were looking for they destroyed them?

 

[Deleted member 293720]

I must admit, this case is on my mind a lot. I woke up this morning and had the idea of 'gingerbread crumbs'.

On 7th Feb, way before we had confirmation that SM did walk/jog through this area towards Mt Clear (confirmation in press conference 23rd Feb), LE found personal items belonging to SM.

We saw MM drive up and talk to LE at the scene, then news articles posted this message: "In short: Police on Wednesday discovered items of interest during their search for the missing Ballarat East mother, but later said they were not relevant to the case"

The thing that has been bugging me is the significance of the items found outside/at entrance to the park on Feb 7th - brief news link here.

I'm interested in anyone's ideas around:

1) why would possible personal items of hers outside the park that SM entered to run be irrelevant? (EDIT - the printed news articles don't state that the items belonged to Sam. They also don't state that they did not belong to her. The all just say that the items found were not deemed relevant)

2) how were LE able to confirm these items were not relevant to the case so quickly? (CCTV footage?)

3) why wouldn't we be told what they were if they were truly unconnected ?

4) were they perhaps 'dumped' at a later time point e.g. between 4th-7th Feb?

5) could this be SM leaving a 'gingerbread crumb' to suggest she was already aware of being followed?? (because you wouldn't dump things at the beginning of a run, you just wouldn't take them with you in the first place)

6) or was this again LE leaving a gingerbread crumb/hook to inform possible kidnapper/alleged perpetrator that they knew her movements etc (like the forensic tree sap photo shoot).

There was probably nothing found, but staged to see who turns up

Just like in the community searches, most likely the perpetrators involved as well

 

[PolyDot]

I don’t find it strange at all, and I’m kind of worried about the number of people who wouldn’t contact police.

I’m a mum, around SM’s age, and I’m extremely reliable. You can always get me on my phone. If I don’t answer immediately I get back to you promptly. Unless you’re a telemarketer.

I always contact my husband or sons to let them know if I’m going be longer than I said, or if there’s a change in plans.

If I went for a run and then was due back to go out for brunch, and I didn’t return AND didn’t answer my phone, somethings seriously wrong.

Bit different if I said I was going out with friends for the day.

Yes that is true of lots of people , but the question is - would the police go looking after just a few hours ?

 

[Hats]

No, I think it's odd, too soon

But the police will know for sure now if there were any missed calls and messages on her phone and his

Sam was reported missing at about 11am. Mick reported her missing.

He said she was supposed to be back to go to some sort of meeting that morning,' Allan said.

This Allan is saying some sort of meeting ?

But MM said it was a family brunch ?

Seeing Allan seems to know everything, why is there a difference of events ?

From Allan again.... 'She wasn't home. Didn't go to it... MM rang up and reported it and after that they started looking out the other side of Buninyong, which is 20-30km away.'

Why would you go all that way 20.30km to 'supposedly' look when It's nowhere near home ?

And they would have known she was going for a short run, due to having something on at 11 am,

so she would have to be back earlier to shower, get ready etc before then

Might MM have known something was happening to Sam at Mt Chance at around 8am ?

And he didn't want to go anywhere near there to search, supposedly with his kids, close to home ?

But calls the police at around 11 am,

it could show he is a concerned husband

Did he receive a call ?..... It's done ! ??

I think it's a bit odd, something is not right in all of this

Police give a major update on missing mum Samantha Murphy

Detectives from the Missing Persons Squad will today lead a targeted search of the Mount Clear area as part of their investigation into the suspicious disappearance of Ballarat East woman Samantha Murphy.

www.dailymail.co.uk

I have found two different times given by Allan to the the media (DM) for the meeting that Sam had in Ballarat. One was 10:00am and the other for 11:00am.

Could this just be from sloppy reporting by the Daily Mail that they have misquoted him. Which time is ther correct one? A 10:00am quick meeting is still possible as a first meeting, and still have time for the brunch at 11:00am with family/friends.

Here is the link with the 10:00am meeting mentioned.

Phone twist in Samantha Murphy's disappearance

EXCLUSIVE

www.dailymail.co.uk

[EDIT can't find article where Allan mentioned getting back in time for an 11:00am meeting, so I might have got this bit wrong. But the articles that do not quote him saying 10:00, just seem to leave out the time altogether]

 

[Awakening]

It’s possible there was a planned meeting with friends, before the family lunch, they may have called MM when SM didn’t show.

IMO the timeline is something like this:

7am to 9am, SM out for a jog, MM home with kids.

9am to 11am, MM likely calling SM, searching, the movements to and from the house the police mentioned.

11am reported missing. Something caused enough worry for police to immediately react. There was a search plane in the air by 3.30pm.

It seems an extraordinary reaction time. People can wait hours for an ambulance these days.

I don’t find anything extraordinary about it.

A 51 year old mother doesn’t return home from a run in the bush on a day with a forecast of 38 degrees.

Emergency services would consider age (possible medical episode) the environment (possible snake bite) and the temperature.

It would be different if it was a 19 year old who went out on the town for the night.

Theres no paperwork to fill out.

You ring the police with your concerns and they assess the situation. From my personal experience they respond very promptly.

 

[Deleted member 339914]

Are there many abandonned run down semi rural properties on the outskirts of Ballarat in the direction heading away from where we believe the incident occurred? I don't know Ballarat and environs at all but such a place would be an ideal location to take a person you had just abducted.

 

[mondayschild]

There was probably nothing found, but staged to see who turns up

Just like in the community searches, most likely the perpetrators involved as well

@Nifty this had crossed my mind. It seemed like a rather big response.

 

[Deleted member 339914]

Is there anyone in this group who is familiar with Ballarat. Can you tell me about a place called Sebastapol?

 

[Awakening]

Are there many abandonned run down semi rural properties on the outskirts of Ballarat in the direction heading away from where we believe the incident occurred? I don't know Ballarat and environs at all but such a place would be an ideal location to take a person you had just abducted.

Yes, a large number in my opinion from when I used to regularly visit Ballarat.

 

[wecaff]

I havent read this theory yet: Maybe SM realised someone was following her and quickly called MM's phone and left a disturbing urgent message? Perhaps it was this message that prompted the Police to act quickly?

 

[Deleted member 293720]

Or destroyed and dumped in a mine shaft Maybe the preps had prior knowledge which mine shafts were deep enough to not let off anymore pings IMOO

My hope is that police have found her phone, from the ping, which could have been discarded by the perpetrator in a vehicle, thinking that will be the end of that

 

[Deleted member 339914]

Yes, a large number in my opinion from when I used to regularly visit Ballarat.

I wish we could search them all.

 

[Lemony]

It's likely that action was quick because it was completely out of character for Samantha not to show up to her commitments, there had been no word from her and she was unable to be contacted.
As the hours passed with no further contact plus the extreme heat it would be fairly standard to start searches and get the chopper up.

If the family used a location sharing app such as Life360, it may have shown Samantha's location as still in the vicinity of her running areas, or not having left that area or location permissions switched off. Something unusual that caused her family concern. Just throwing this out there as Life360 is a popular family app. IMO.

 

[ZombieKittie]

Do you know if the areas shaded in green are all forest, public bushlands? Or does it include private properties like farms and acreages?

Look on google with the satelite layer on it's not perfect but gives you a pretty good idea

 

[Deleted member 339914]

It's likely that action was quick because it was completely out of character for Samantha not to show up to her commitments, there had been no word from her and she was unable to be contacted.
As the hours passed with no further contact plus the extreme heat it would be fairly standard to start searches and get the chopper up.

If the family used a location sharing app such as Life360, it may have shown Samantha's location as still in the vicinity of her running areas, or not having left that area or location permissions switched off. Something unusual that caused her family concern. Just throwing this out there as Life360 is a popular family app. IMO.

I don't think Sam had any idea what was about to happen to her ... one minute moving along content in the natural world and next a total a...hole, or two, grab/s her ... gun or knife to keep her quiet? ... or knocked unconscious? I believe there are at least 2 perps, I feel so angry. I just can't quite get my head around it being totally random. Peripheral family/friends connection?

 

[Deleted member 293720]

The police need to find that vehicle (If they haven't already, and it's under surveillance)

As Sam would have been moved from that spot originally and quickly

 

[Deleted member 339914]

The police need to find that vehicle (If they haven't already, and it's under surveillance)

As Sam would have been moved from that spot originally and quickly

A van would be ideal. One of those sliding door ones where nobody can see in. One perp drives and the other has her in the back.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

Bushcraft expert claims 'blind spots' in search for missing mum

Bush tracking expert and visiting volunteer Jake Cassar said he delivered several items of potential evidence to authorities in areas of the dense scrub that had not been previously searched.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Bushcraft expert Jake Cassar claims to find 'blind spots' in search for missing mum Samantha Murphy - as he hands cops 'several items' of evidence​

Article dated 2nd March 2024

 

[Deleted member 339914]

I don't think Sam had any idea what was about to happen to her ... one minute moving along content in the natural world and next a total a...hole, or two, grab/s her ... gun or knife to keep her quiet? ... or knocked unconscious? I believe there are at least 2 perps, I feel so angry. I just can't quite get my head around it being totally random. Peripheral family/friends connection?

or has peripheral links through the business? Client or linked to worker? Put it this way, I think at least one of them would have been recognisable to Sam.