Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #5

[Dr Samoht]

Here’s a close up … I don’t know how to mark over the screenshot but it’s fairly apparent, the electricity building right where Boak Rd ends at Rec rd .
Boak Rd is one big loop , starting towards the western end of Rec Rd and finishing east at that electricity building .

 

[Dr Samoht]

Sorry it’s not allowing my photo file to be attached … even after waiting 15 minutes

 

[ProfCluezo]

It’s great having input from someone who knows the area so well Dr Samoht. Do you have any particular theories you are leaning towards?

 

[Black-Cat]

What’s interesting then is that there appear to have been no witnesses… (At least none reported by police)…. I wonder if anyone was intercepting joggers/walkers further down? How was it possible for no one to see/hear anything at 8am on a Sunday when presumably other joggers/walkers would also have been making the most of the cooler air in the early morning? Especially if it’s an established trail….??

I grew up in a small country town about an hour from Ballarat. A place surrounded by bush with a small population. Even when you were out in the bush and you thought you were alone, you would always see people. My point is, it is amazing that no-one (that we know of) has seen anything!!! There is always people around.

 

[Hats]

I grew up in a small country town about an hour from Ballarat. A place surrounded by bush with a small population. Even when you were out in the bush and you thought you were alone, you would always see people. My point is, it is amazing that no-one (that we know of) has seen anything!!! There is always people around.

That is mostly true, but I think some here are not familiar with Australian bush areas and have a very unrealistic picture, particularly when it has been identified as a historic track. I might be wrong about this, but that route that Sam has likely taken, I would be surprised if you would normally see other people or vehicles any more than about half hour apart, if that.

 

[Hats]

Sorry it’s not allowing my photo file to be attached … even after waiting 15 minutes

Maybe you need to compress the photo as it could be too big to load? I don't know what the size limits are as I haven't even attempted to do this myself yet.

 

[Dr Samoht]

It’s great having input from someone who knows the area so well Dr Samoht. Do you have any particular theories you are leaning towards?

I’ve thought about this from a walkers/runners perspective training for a hilly half marathon some three months away . Recreation Rd is exposed to fast vehicular traffic , it’s about the turnaround point of her planned 14km training route, I think to minimise the exposure to this road she would have entered from Bailey Rd , taken the downhill west along Rec Rd the better part of a Km then turned left to enter the less travelled Boak Rd that eventually brings you back to Rec Rd /Boundary Rd and northwards home .Boak Rd would give Sam an elevation climb workout and I would envisage an attack / abduction most likely at the Telstra phone tower area where there is parking provision for a perp to lie in wait without blocking a quite narrow track . Sam will be a little puffed and perhaps more vulnerable at this point .
All this is only my conjecture having walked this area often in the last three years .

 

[Bats]

That is mostly true, but I think some here not familiar with Australian bush areas have got a very unrealistic picture, particularly when it has been identified as a historic track. I might be wrong about this, but that route that Sam has likely taken, I would be surprised if you would normally see other people or vehicles any more than about half hour apart, if that.

...and that plays into a possible perpetrator's hands very well... especially at 8am on a Sunday morning.
Though, there could be others out and about at that time too...a person or people that are covering up an accident...

Time will tell

 

[TrunkImagine]

I was trying to find info today about whether or not runners/walkers/joggers are usually attacked by strangers (if they are attacked, of course).

I stumbled on an article (UK article) about how 94% of murders involve some kind of stalking. They studied 358 murders.

Stalking behaviour identified in 94% of murders, study shows

Researchers urge criminal justice professionals to take early intervention on ‘seemingly harmless’ obsessive behaviour

www.theguardian.com

What constitutes stalking, though? Would watching Sam for a few kilometres of her run while waiting for the right opportunity count as stalking? Or does it have to be repeated surveillance of the subject?

 

[ProfCluezo]

Any thoughts on the likelihood of an accident around the 7km mark Dr Samoht?

 

[Hats]

I’ve thought about this from a walkers/runners perspective training for a hilly half marathon some three months away . Recreation Rd is exposed to fast vehicular traffic , it’s about the turnaround point of her planned 14km training route, I think to minimise the exposure to this road she would have entered from Bailey Rd , taken the downhill west along Rec Rd the better part of a Km then turned left to enter the less travelled Boak Rd that eventually brings you back to Rec Rd /Boundary Rd and northwards home .Boak Rd would give Sam an elevation climb workout and I would envisage an attack / abduction most likely at the Telstra phone tower area where there is parking provision for a perp to lie in wait without blocking a quite narrow track . Sam will be a little puffed and perhaps more vulnerable at this point .
All this is only my conjecture having walked this area often in the last three years .

Fantastic input Dr Samoht. This forum has been sadly lacking this first hand knowledge of the area until now.

 

[mondayschild]

That is mostly true, but I think some here are not familiar with Australian bush areas and have a very unrealistic picture, particularly when it has been identified as a historic track. I might be wrong about this, but that route that Sam has likely taken, I would be surprised if you would normally see other people or vehicles any more than about half hour apart, if that.

Yes, you might be wrong, but we are all just speculating, aren't we? so it doesn't matter. We are all entitled to share an opinion here - so much the better.

It's a designated walking and cycling track, with printed maps, that might attract visitors from Melbourne etc so I would assume it is likely to have some car/foot traffic on a weekend, regular locals on walks etc.

We don't know the route she took. I can see a few different ways that lead me to the likely 'ping' spot (which is, again, a guestimate)

 

[ProfCluezo]

Fantastic input Dr Samoht. This forum has been sadly lacking his first hand knowledge of the area until now.

I couldn’t agree more. Thank you so much for your insights and contributions Dr Samoht. It really adds so much depth when considering possibilities having these kinds of first handed insights…

 

[SouthAussie]

What constitutes stalking, though? Would watching Sam for a few kilometres of her run while waiting for the right opportunity count as stalking? Or does it have to be repeated surveillance of the subject?

I would think it can be many things. I am not suggesting Sam was stalked, I just thought that the 94% thing was interesting.

This Florida law group says there are at least 7 kinds of stalking .....

Stalking behavior can take many forms. Here are seven types of stalkers:
1) Rejected Stalkers, who refuse to accept the end of a relationship;
2) Resentful Stalkers, seeking revenge against a perceived wrong;
3) Intimacy Seekers, who desire a close relationship with their victim;
4) Incompetent Suitors, lacking social skills;
5) Predatory Stalkers, preparing for a sexual assault;
6) Erotomanic Stalkers, believing their love is reciprocated; and
7) Love Obsessional Stalkers, fixating on a stranger.

7 Different Types of Stalkers | How To Identify a Stalker

It can be intimidating to be stalked by someone, but there are different motives that cause stalkers to act. Here are the 7 different types of stalkers.

www.fighterlaw.com

 

[Black-Cat]

That is mostly true, but I think some here are not familiar with Australian bush areas and have a very unrealistic picture, particularly when it has been identified as a historic track. I might be wrong about this, but that route that Sam has likely taken, I would be surprised if you would normally see other people or vehicles any more than about half hour apart, if that.

Ballarat has a population of over 100,00 people, and so many people run, walk, ride, walk their dogs. This bush is on the fringes of populated areas, it's not what you would call 'remote.' Which is why I'm amazed that someone hasn't witnessed something. IMO

 

[Dr Samoht]

Qu

Any thoughts on the likelihood of an accident around the 7km mark Dr Samoht?

Any thoughts on the likelihood of an accident around the 7km mark Dr Samoht?

Anywhere along Recreation Rd in my experience a collision with a vehicle is possible , particularly as this road is fast ( around 80kph ) and wearing ear buds ( I never do) will make it even more dangerous as well as not facing the oncoming traffic( I see this a lot ) but with Sam’s prior running experience she would most likely be running facing the traffic.
It seems highly unlikely an accidental collision would see the driver bundle an injured or lifeless body into their vehicle , especially considering being seen by passing traffic and surely there would be evidence left on the gravel road .
It’s possible but not a theory I lean towards .

 

[Minaka]

<modsnip: no link> I found it interesting how MM was overly excited and passionate about food when his wife just went missing. It was his most excited state throughout the press conference.

"to accept all the fooooooood that would want to be cooked for us'

I'd be beside myself. Food would be the very last thing I'd be interested in.
I'd rather starve if it meant searching and finding my partner.

 

[Hats]

Ballarat has a population of over 100,00 people, and so many people run, walk, ride, walk their dogs. This bush is on the fringes of populated areas, it's not what you would call 'remote.' Which is why I'm amazed that someone hasn't witnessed something. IMO

Yes I understand that. I just wish we had some real data of the traffic on these tracks, particularly during the weekly timeframe in question . Maybe Dr Samoht has some insight on this?

 

[Deleted member 293720]

I’ve thought about this from a walkers/runners perspective training for a hilly half marathon some three months away . Recreation Rd is exposed to fast vehicular traffic , it’s about the turnaround point of her planned 14km training route, I think to minimise the exposure to this road she would have entered from Bailey Rd , taken the downhill west along Rec Rd the better part of a Km then turned left to enter the less travelled Boak Rd that eventually brings you back to Rec Rd /Boundary Rd and northwards home .Boak Rd would give Sam an elevation climb workout and I would envisage an attack / abduction most likely at the Telstra phone tower area where there is parking provision for a perp to lie in wait without blocking a quite narrow track . Sam will be a little puffed and perhaps more vulnerable at this point .
All this is only my conjecture having walked this area often in the last three years .

Where would Sam have entered from to get into Bailey Rd ? Do you think ? Coming from Eureka St. As it would need to be 7km, done in about 1 hour

 

[Bats]

<modsnip> I found it interesting how MM was overly excited and passionate about food when his wife just went missing. It was his most excited state throughout the press conference.

"to accept all the fooooooood that would want to be cooked for us'

I'd be beside myself. Food would be the very last thing I'd be interested in.
I'd rather starve if it meant searching and finding my partner.

IMO
You really can't judge a person giving a press conference that has never previously spoken in a press conference.

Its best not to think what you would do in a situation but rather...is it a possibility that someone else could react that way...in a certain situation?