Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #6

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Did he sleep at all that Saturday night - or did he just roll into Sunday?
I find the fact he was partying the night before interesting. If he was out with his girlfriend at the bar until 3am, how did he end up in that bushland with Sam at 7am.
I'm 30 but when my partner and I used to party and had been out partying (even partaking in cocaine) we would head to a mates or back home. There's not one time I can think that one of us would have been alone 4 hours later. And even my partner would always be with his mates after a night out.
If Patrick had been using Ice I feel like him doing some weird *advertiser censored* in the bush would make more sense, off roading or something like that but it still wouldn't explain a deliberate act.
 
From the news they began to focus on him after analysis of the phone data. Since they didn't seize his car or his phone right away the police must not have had enough other evidence at that time (video of him striking her with his car for example). They spent almost 2 weeks doing something else we don't know about yet and only arrested him after they spoke to him at length. Somehow they developed that he was in fact the killer and that it was deliberate.

I'll speculate he told some tall-tales during that interrogation not realizing how much the police had already gathered.
 
I find the fact he was partying the night before interesting. If he was out with his girlfriend at the bar until 3am, how did he end up in that bushland with Sam at 7am.
I'm 30 but when my partner and I used to party and had been out partying (even partaking in cocaine) we would head to a mates or back home. There's not one time I can think that one of us would have been alone 4 hours later. And even my partner would always be with his mates after a night out.
If Patrick had been using Ice I feel like him doing some weird *advertiser censored* in the bush would make more sense, off roading or something like that but it still wouldn't explain a deliberate act.
Perhaps he was psyching himself up with booze/drugs to carry out a pre-planned attack in the morning, so he intentionally gave everyone else the slip to head out to the bush alone. Maybe he went home with the girlfriend and left again after she was asleep? MOO, IMO, etc., etc.
 
Police narrowed their search in on Mount Clear, where they now allege Samantha Murphy was murdered. Picture: Brendan Beckett

Police narrowed their search in on Mount Clear, where they now allege Samantha Murphy was murdered

Victoria Police have Mr Stephenson’s ute as part of their investigation.

Mr Stephenson, an electrician, is the son of former Geelong and Richmond player Orren Stephenson.
*I’m still so curious what they were wanting to find. I know they were just looking for anything out of the ordinary but all photos similar to the one above a few days ago stood out to me. I haven’t seen anything like that since LE was searching the snow in Gannon Stauch’s case. I do think they have something in particular they were searching for. Something very small. I hadn’t noticed Patrick is an electrician. Again reminding me of Gannon since I think they were searching for his Nintendo switch.
I wonder if he cleaned up in one of the houses and there is blood evidence there. (In this picture, is he looking under a rock, or in a culvert?)
 
I wonder if he cleaned up in one of the houses and there is blood evidence there. (In this picture, is he looking under a rock, or in a culvert?)
It really doesn’t look like he’s looking underneath a rock, it doesn’t appear to be lifted. The officer looks more like his eyes are staring deep down.
 

It appears the video which was mentioned yesterday was true. It is paywalled but I have seen the video on FB as well. It does not show the accused doing drugs but he is identified in the video.
Early on in the investigation, wasn’t there a question from the media about police investigation an incident at a Ballarat hospitality venue? I wonder if this was the incident and police were onto it early. IMO

Even moreso, I wonder If this was the same place Sam and friends had their dinner the night before. Could there have been an altercation between Sam/her friends and these boys behaving badly (probably not snorting C at the time). IMO
 
Early on in the investigation, wasn’t there a question from the media about police investigation an incident at a Ballarat hospitality venue? I wonder if this was the incident and police were onto it early. IMO

Even moreso, I wonder If this was the same place Sam and friends had their dinner the night before. Could there have been an altercation between Sam/her friends and these boys behaving badly (probably not snorting C at the time). IMO
Wasn't that the place where she announced to her family and friends where she would be running, so MM and others could know where to find her?

JMO
 
From the news they began to focus on him after analysis of the phone data. Since they didn't seize his car or his phone right away the police must not have had enough other evidence at that time (video of him striking her with his car for example). They spent almost 2 weeks doing something else we don't know about yet and only arrested him after they spoke to him at length. Somehow they developed that he was in fact the killer and that it was deliberate.

I'll speculate he told some tall-tales during that interrogation not realizing how much the police had already gathered.
Good point re not having access to the car GPS / dash cam until AFTER the arrest.
 
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Given the accused was on a bender the night before, having consumed drugs/alcohol and not having slept, I would think it's less likely he was out jogging when he crossed paths with SM. More likely he was driving? Perhaps he had a buddy with him? Police stated it was a deliberate attack. Is there definitive proof? There would have to be IMO... dashcam footage? Eye witness jogging? Buddy in car confessed what he witnessed? Has the accused confessed to anything?
 
About the car that’s been seized. It’s unclear if they’re just referring to the white Ute (with canopy) or a second vehicle. This article references the girlfriends Suzuki Jimny but syas it was still in the driveway on Friday. I’m thinking the only car they’ve seized is his.

A Suzuki Jimny — understood to belong to Mr Stephenson’s partner — remained in the driveway of that home on Friday.

 
With the accused having a light beard in court (as per linked news articles), I reckon Sam may have still got some good marks on him.

But, as you say, ultimately she never would have had much chance to escape the clutches of a footy-playing 22 year old who is built as he is. :(

imo
5 weeks ago? Doubt it - would’ve healed. More likely attempt to disguise self - he knows police are all over the cctv footage. I would be surprised if he had also had a haircut or started/stopped wearing a hat.
 
This whole case has baffled me. He honestly looks just like a larrikin down at the local footy club. It scares me to think that if I saw him out in the bush going for my run, I would not bat an eyelid to think he was capable of what he has done. I truly believe he has hit her whether it be deliberate or accidental and then maybe in a state of panic has moved the body. I do believe more than one person has to be involved in the second part though. But this is all MOO.
 
I Google mapped the Scotsburn address. There is a sign out the front of the home “Ace of Clubs Golf”.

I can’t find a website for this business to understand what they sell / services.

What was the connection with the Buninyong Golf Club? It was mentioned early in the investigation

IMO
 
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I find the fact he was partying the night before interesting. If he was out with his girlfriend at the bar until 3am, how did he end up in that bushland with Sam at 7am.
I'm 30 but when my partner and I used to party and had been out partying (even partaking in cocaine) we would head to a mates or back home. There's not one time I can think that one of us would have been alone 4 hours later. And even my partner would always be with his mates after a night out.
If Patrick had been using Ice I feel like him doing some weird *advertiser censored* in the bush would make more sense, off roading or something like that but it still wouldn't explain a deliberate act.

Just because it was said he was doing “cocaine” doesn’t mean it wasn’t coke cut with ice or speed. So who really knows what he was investing.
 
5 weeks ago? Doubt it - would’ve healed. More likely attempt to disguise self - he knows police are all over the cctv footage. I would be surprised if he had also had a haircut or started/stopped wearing a hat.

If he grew a beard to conceal deep fingernail scratches, would he shave the beard as soon as the scratches healed?

Or would he keep the beard indefinitely to conceal scarring, and so that people didn't think he grew the beard to cover scratches?

I have no idea how long he had the light beard, but one reason he may not give up Sam's location is that his DNA may be under her fingernails, and he knows it.

imo
 
Say he he has accidentally hit her with his car, but she was still alive but in a bad way and he then deliberately ended her life. ALL MOO. Would you think Police would call this a deliberate attack? Just a scenario I’m playing out in my mind, but I personally wouldn’t then call this a deliberate attack. ALL IMO
 
Same. It really is a puzzling case.

I guess the thing that bugs me most is I watched the investigative special on TV.

The "experts" were saying that the perp had to have known her running schedule, possibly even had access to her iPhone maps, because her last known location was a fair distance from the road. They were implying that the perp had to have known she was coming. The exact time and location. This doesn't fit with someone who was on a bender all night.

Unless what the experts were saying was BS to fool the perp into believing he was off the hook.

It makes me think of a stalker, but why would a 22 year old be stalking a 51 year old mother? I know it's possible, but it's just bizarre. The other possibility is that he is a depraved individual that targets women in the forest at a certain time of the year. Did something happen to him on that date and he marks it each year with attacks women?
In fairness, it’s a tv show on ch 9. They are stringing together the limited facts as they see them - with a need for ratings underlying that. It’s not a proper forensics analysis and profiling.
That said, I am interested in how long ago it aired. Two weeks? Length of time PS has been surveiled by police? Assuming there are some restrictions placed on Ch 9 over what can and can’t be stated, the UI may only have presented/been allowed to present one possible scenario/profile. The one presented may have been deemed more suitable for viewers (ratings) or the only one permitted by police - with a strategic intent of making PS (who was, by then, in their sights) feel like he was out of the spotlight and let guard down…possibly further destroy/obscure evidence which police would then be monitoring.
 
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