Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #6

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Good points.

Unless he had help ?
I doubt his drug-taking is going to help his case much.
The fact that the authorities still cannot locate Samantha makes it look fairly well though out, and not spur of the moment.
Omo.

Putting the dead person in a body of water or in an abandoned mine shaft doesn't need to be "well thought" IMO

Especially by an athletic strong local who knows this area well.

JMO
 
This case and the manner in which the police are handling it reminds me a little of the Gable Tostee case that occurred about a decade ago.

A girl was found dead after falling from a Gold Coast high rise balcony and the male who lived in the apartment fled on foot.

Police charged him with murder and were adamant about the fact.

Tostee wouldn't talk for a while. Changed lawyers multiple times. Significant evidence emerged that made him look guilty. Media was all over the case. Lots of talk on the Websleuths thread about his guilt.

In the end, a mobile phone audio file recorded on the night by himself emerged... he had named it "Session 24". It was very graphic but also very telling of what happened on the night and in the end, led to him being found not guilty of murder nor manslaughter.

My point is... Sometimes the police initially go too hard with the initial charge based on minimal evidence and it can cause problems in the end.

The suspects defence may be telling him to remain silent till they can have the charge downgraded perhaps to "vehicular manslaughter" & "interference/disposal of a corpse".

New evidence could emerge that paints a clearer picture.

I don't know.

This case just brought me back to that one that was now over a decade ago and after some reflection I guess its important to keep an open mind.

It's possible to see a downgrading of charges, a long drawn out court process, a much more leniant sentence than many will expect and even a not guilty verdict if the case goes to trial.

I guess we wait and see now.
 
According to the BBC, police believe Stephenson “deliberately attacked Ms Murphy on the day of her disappearance in a bushland area where she was known to exercise, near her East Ballarat home.”

A news release from Victoria police revealed that “Detectives from the Missing Persons Squad have this afternoon charged a man as part of their investigation into the disappearance of Ballarat East woman Samantha Murphy.”

Patrick Orren Stephenson: Tradie accused of murdering Samantha Murphy went on a pub crawl in Ballarat the night before the mum-of-three vanished t.co/jhZx84L8tR

We’re learning more about the movements of Samantha Murphy’s alleged killer in the days and weeks before the Ballarat mother disappeared. Patrick Stephenson was reportedly out partying the night before Samantha vanished. t.co/VZ3A1cHvFd #7NEWS

According to Daily Mail, Stephenson joined friends for a “pub crawl.”

The Herald Sun published video of Stephenson the night before the murder, saying his friends described him as going on a “bender.”

Daily Mail reported that “a video that circulated on Snapchat from the party appears to show lines of white powder racked up on a mobile phone,” but indicated there was no evidence tying Stephenson to it.

The Sydney Morning Herald reported that investigators were trying to find surveillance video of Stephenson from that night.
 
Just some thoughts I had if people had their own theories/answers to them

1. Is it standard in Australia for the case to get to court so many months after - ie, the 20 weeks this is apparently taking place in?

2. Do we assume the police have CCTV/Audio/Dash cam to confirm this is deliberate or would tire marks be enough to say this is a deliberate act?

3. Also, with them ruling out a hit and run/accidental, is there no car involved or is that still up for debate? I know they seized his car, but is that just in case he moved Samantha with it ?

4. I'm struggling with him being so apparently drunk just from the pictures/videos I've seen and the act happening only a few hours later, i suppose we don't know when he left the party.

5. Going back to the CCTV stuff, assuming the LE have the footage to show it was a deliberate act, would this case not be open and shut, and wouldn't need all this time to prepare a case for court?

NOTE: I'm unfamiliar with the crime and legal procedures in Australia so it could just be my lack of knowledge.
 
Putting the dead person in a body of water or in an abandoned mine shaft doesn't need to be "well thought" IMO

Especially by an athletic strong local who knows this area well.

JMO

He could know the area and waterways extremely well.

Looking at his vehicle it’s decked out with a rooftop tent, snorkel for driving through water and also, I think, that bull-bar has a winch, I zoomed into the windscreen and it looks like a dashcam not to mention the large aerial for CB.

Imo that’s an expensive off-road camping outfit right there. I could also imagine he’d also have a trailer for his dirt bike. (More expense)

1710018305643.jpeg

 
The Herald Sun published video of Stephenson the night before the murder, saying his friends described him as going on a “bender.”

A bender implies that the accused was partying for longer than one evening.

A bender usually means a long period of imbibing. Then crashing out (or not) then getting right back into the imbibing.

imo
 
He could know the area and waterways extremely well.

Looking at his vehicle it’s decked out with a rooftop tent, snorkel for driving through water and also, I think, that bull-bar has a winch, I zoomed into the windscreen and it looks like a dashcam not to mention the large aerial for CB.

Imo that’s an expensive off-road camping outfit right there. I could also imagine he’d also have a trailer for his dirt bike. (More expense)

View attachment 489257

It's an entry level Mitsubishi Triton, with maybe $3-5k AUD accessories. I wouldn't say it's that expensive by today's standards in Australia. Especially being an electrician (apprentice?) and coming from a stable family.

25-35k AUD max
 
"In Victoria, there is a hierarchy of three different offences that are typically relied upon in matters involving driving causing death."

Involuntary Manslaughter
Culpable Driving
Dangerous Driving Causing Death or Serious Injury


None of these charges are murder. And I think the case that Lemony linked earlier (James Gargasoulas) was a murder charge because that guy intentionally drove on the busy footpath and mowed down multiple people, despite others trying to stop him.
He is considered a mass murderer. Link



imo
 
Last edited:
As a reminder:


From the time someone is arrested, charged or a warrant is issued, up to the moment when the court proceedings are over, the case is said to be sub judice. Therefore, please refrain from posting anything that violates the following principles:

- Basically, anything that may prejudice the accused’s right to a fair trial.
- Any suggestion, opinion, or direct accusation that the accused is either guilty OR innocent (i.e. the accused cannot be called "the killer"; use "the accused", "the alleged killer", or "the defendant").
- A defendant’s previous history of any offense is off limits.
- Scandalizing the court (disparaging judges, lawyers, any officer of the Court) is off limits.
- Broadcasting anything about proceedings which happen in the jury's absence is off limits.
- Any non-compliance with an Order of the court is off limits.

These guidelines for journalists/reporters simplify sub judice contempt. Should you have a question, please report any post and ask it. Thanks!
 
I have another question. How much evidence do the police need before they charge, and is that evidence revised before the charge is laid? Eg in England , the police need to submit evidence to the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS), who then review the evidence and make a decision as to whether there is a realistic prospect of a conviction. Is there a similar system in Australia?
It is exactly the same, the same system, as opposed to, for example, the French system of policing , or the Swedish or Danish system. All the way from the police on the street, to the judge in the High Court. Entirely based on the Westminster system, ( along with NZ, and Canada, also, lots of other Commonwealth countries, Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Jamaica, and so on ) ..

Before the VICPOL laid this charge on him , it would have been itemised by the CO of the police group in charge of this investigation, then up to be finely toothcombed over by the Police Prosecutor, then up to the DPP ( Dept. of Public Prosecution, the Crown Prosecution Service equivalent ) , then back to the Police Prosecutor for a last perusal, then back down to the Commanding Officer of the particular group of police designated to this matter, who clomp on out, boots ringing on the pavement to arrest the person named in the warrant.
 
According to the BBC, police believe Stephenson “deliberately attacked Ms Murphy on the day of her disappearance in a bushland area where she was known to exercise, near her East Ballarat home.”

A news release from Victoria police revealed that “Detectives from the Missing Persons Squad have this afternoon charged a man as part of their investigation into the disappearance of Ballarat East woman Samantha Murphy.”

Patrick Orren Stephenson: Tradie accused of murdering Samantha Murphy went on a pub crawl in Ballarat the night before the mum-of-three vanished t.co/jhZx84L8tR

We’re learning more about the movements of Samantha Murphy’s alleged killer in the days and weeks before the Ballarat mother disappeared. Patrick Stephenson was reportedly out partying the night before Samantha vanished. t.co/VZ3A1cHvFd #7NEWS

According to Daily Mail, Stephenson joined friends for a “pub crawl.”

The Herald Sun published video of Stephenson the night before the murder, saying his friends described him as going on a “bender.”

Daily Mail reported that “a video that circulated on Snapchat from the party appears to show lines of white powder racked up on a mobile phone,” but indicated there was no evidence tying Stephenson to it.

The Sydney Morning Herald reported that investigators were trying to find surveillance video of Stephenson from that night.
Thanks for the links !
Have LE released the evidence that tied him directly ?
My guess is phone pings ?
Omo.
 
Thanks for the links !
Have LE released the evidence that tied him directly ?
My guess is phone pings ?
Omo.

Somewhere back in the thread there is a link that says that the police were onto him from a small snippet from CCTV.

The police did request a tower dump ... perhaps to back up their suspicions.

imo
 
It is exactly the same, the same system, as opposed to, for example, the French system of policing , or the Swedish or Danish system. All the way from the police on the street, to the judge in the High Court. Entirely based on the Westminster system, ( along with NZ, and Canada, also, lots of other Commonwealth countries, Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Jamaica, and so on ) ..

Before the VICPOL laid this charge on him , it would have been itemised by the CO of the police group in charge of this investigation, then up to be finely toothcombed over by the Police Prosecutor, then up to the DPP ( Dept. of Public Prosecution, the Crown Prosecution Service equivalent ) , then back to the Police Prosecutor for a last perusal, then back down to the Commanding Officer of the particular group of police designated to this matter, who clomp on out, boots ringing on the pavement to arrest the person named in the warrant.
Thank you! They must have the evidence they need.
 
Thank you! They must have the evidence they need.
I suspect they have more than they need, it is not usual for VICPOL, or any POL service in AU to declare someone dead, after only a fortnight , without any official sighting of the body, like a doctor, an ambulance officer, a serving police officer, a coroner, ... it is highly unusual, in my estimation. And that would not be claimed just on the say so of someone, it would require unarguable, indisputable, irreversible proof, evidence, that this person was, in fact, deceased, and furthermore, had been murdered.

Which is why I think they have evidence, of the nature that speaks for itself, requiring no interpretation.
 
Hmm, I don't like the body burning idea; it seems unlikely since a body would take A LOT of fuel to dispose of and leave another crime scene not to mention a hell of a smell and lots of smoke. Altho there was that bushfire..... There will be GPS in his ute that will track his movements. I reckon, unfortunately, that she was left to the elements after an SA.
But yeah, who knows what their interaction was? The assailant could have been lying on the track coming down off his high (needing some downers to normalise), and SM went to help, and that got her in trouble.
 
If he was in a drug induced psychosis, he must have remarkable come back to reality ,as he managed to function & dispose of a body, that after 1 month has still not been found ....that would take someone being connected to reality IMO
If he was in a drug-induced psychosis, and was to use this in his defence, it would be very interesting when he returned to work.
If he was back to work Monday or even Tuesday, I would call drug-induced psychosis null and void.
 
Hi all, great news they’ve made an arrest. Such a tough time for MM and SMs whole family but at least all the misdirected theories and innuendo can stop.

Just caught up on pages and pages since Wednesday, some interesting commentary. Most interested in how the murder charge is laid out, police commentary is very firm on this being murder not hit and run, yet the facts and info as we know them don’t quite fit.

Not sure when we find more out, maybe not until court proceedings. But a chance to refine my top two theories in light of the accused being revealed, and the alleged partying the night before.

My main theory pre-arrest was random stalker. In light of alleged night of partying I don’t think this is likely a pre-planned stalker attack.

More likely something spontaneous, on a bender, friends all partied out, the accused still fired up and on a big high, decides to act on an impulsive fantasy and sets out to find a victim. So I am refining to deliberate, but spontaneous, drug fuelled attack that fulfills some sort of twisted fantasy. Not sure on this angle anymore though.

My other theory pre arrest was SM encountered someone who was up to no good already and they’ve covered their tracks and hidden the evidence, including an accidental “hit, hide & run” by someone who couldn’t afford to get caught drink/drug driving. This fits better for me, the accused heading home from night of partying, struck SM with car or motorbike, freaked out. However police said emphatic no to this being a hit and run. I wonder though, could it still be a vehicle accident at first, reckless driving leading to SM being struck, but in failing to render assistance, provide first aid, call paramedics, deliberately allowing SM to pass, then deliberate cover up and hiding the body, can this amount to a murder charge? Deliberate intent to let someone die.

Perhaps evidence from smart watch data shows SM survived the initial accident but was killed later, in mercy, or even just by failing to help, the accused has shown intent to let SM die. Then further compound things by covering up, hiding evidence, staying quiet for a month.

Could this come under the “reckless endangerment of life” definition of murder. Intent to deliberately let someone die, following an accident. Not sure about this either. Perhaps police know this will likely get downgraded to manslaughter but had enough to try for a murder, hoping for a deal to be made to find the body and close it out cleanly?

Lastly another theory could be deliberate striking by car. There are numerous video games that allow deliberate, graphic run down of pedestrians in a vehicle to be played out. It’s sick, I can’t believe they exist but they do. Could someone develop a fantasy about actually doing this, and juiced up on coke, actually set out in the car to find a victim? Maybe even record themselves doing it and brag to a friend, leading to sufficient evidence for police to run with murder charge?

Time will tell. Thanks to all the WSers on this, I think it’s a type of vigil for a victim and form of therapy in a confronting case. I will stop theorising now and see what police have come up with, just glad there is some closure and I’m sure they will find SM now so full closure can be achieved for her family.
 
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