Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024

[Justoneoftheguests]

Samantha's chances of survival, if laying injured/unconscious in the bush, have likely passed now. The searches now will probably be a search and recovery mission. imo

But if she was, say bitten by a snake (which I initially thought was a significant possibility), why would her phone then ping somewhere quite off track from where she was thought to be running, many hours later (at 5pm) and then go dead? This doesn’t make sense to me.

MOO

 

[Trooper]

I’m sure the forensic accountants are having a good look into any missing money or gambling problems etc.
The three family members worked closely together….maybe.

https://www.inlandmotorbodyworks.com.au/?page_id=27[/U

Hard not to be a bit cynical, TGY. I noticed no money aspects being mentioned, and it's not as if they are the squattocracy, or the landed gentry,, like Malcom Fraser, down in the Western District... I don't see money as being a component here, although, as is so often the case, money is a factor, in various ways, in people lives, married lives.. It just isn't obvious in this case.

And no demand for money, kidnapping being a very rare , rare crime in AU, I think because AUstralians are so Bolshie they would not pay a penny, not a penny, take Mum and don't come back, sort of thing..

The husband. SOmething off there, the dynamic between him and the daughter. His awkwardness, her devastation, something is going on there, I don't know what exactly.


Unhappy to know that all the technology doesn't seem to make a difference, the phone pings, the apple watch tracking, etc CCTV , dash cam, wandering phone addicts. etc..

 

[SouthAussie]

But if she was, say bitten by a snake (which I initially thought was a significant possibility), why would her phone then ping somewhere quite off track from where she was thought to be running, many hours later (at 5pm) and then go dead? This doesn’t make sense to me.

MOO

I haven't actually read the time of the last ping in MSM anywhere or heard it in the police pressers. I am not sure where the 5pm is coming from.

imo

 

[Noorie]

What's the phone reception like there? If she had of been bitten by a brown she would of likely had enough time up her sleeve to at least phone for help.

 

[Justoneoftheguests]

I haven't actually read the time of the last ping in MSM anywhere or heard it in the police pressers. I am not sure where the 5pm is coming from.

imo

I was sure I had read it in media articles but perhaps it was social media posts. The best MSM reference I can currently find is

“Her phone later in the day pings near Buninyong Golf Club.” From https://www.skynews.com.au/australi...ws-story/2522a985fa51f503d373c6ba90812373?amp

Even if it doesn’t state specifically the 5pm timeframe, “later in the day” would still not line up with her being immobilised in the bush somewhere from injury/snake bite etc. Why would her phone then ping there and then never ping again. That seems very strange to me. MOO

 

[Dalziel]

Statistically speaking the husband makes the most sense here but clearly it is not that simple. Others have said that you can’t judge someone in this situation as everyone reacts differently in crisis. IMO I think husband seemed odd with his remarks regarding the food/shopping comment and his generalities around ‘people’ don’t vanish into thin air, not a hugely personal message in the face of things.
I sincerely hope that none of that is sinister and they find Samantha in a far less nefarious situation.
I’m not pointing fingers but I think past cases have shown us that these cases tend to err towards the people closest to the victim. IMO

 

[SouthAussie]

I was sure I had read it in media articles but perhaps it was social media posts. The best MSM reference I can currently find is

“Her phone later in the day pings near Buninyong Golf Club.” From https://www.skynews.com.au/australi...ws-story/2522a985fa51f503d373c6ba90812373?amp

Even if it doesn’t state specifically the 5pm timeframe, “later in the day” would still not line up with her being immobilised in the bush somewhere from injury/snake bite etc. Why would her phone then ping there and then never ping again. That seems very strange to me. MOO

Later in the day could mean anytime after 7am, when Samantha is said to have left home for her run. imo

Yes, it is strange that Samantha's phone stopped pinging. Unless it ran out of charge or was somehow broken (if it stopped pinging for innocent reasons). I am hoping that police can gain access to the GPS data from her Apple watch.

What's the phone reception like there? If she had of been bitten by a brown she would of likely had enough time up her sleeve to at least phone for help.

When I look at a phone coverage map, Telstra seems to have good coverage around the entire area, Optus has barely any coverage, Vodafone's coverage is a little better than Optus but not as good as Telstra.

Telstra 3G / 4G / 5G coverage in Ballarat, Australia - nPerf.com

Compare the network coverage of mobile operators and check their performance at home !

www.nperf.com

 

[Trooper]

It just seems odd to me that ALL the technology has bungled up. Her stuff, anyone elses stuff, anyones phone, that it all would come up blank at the same time, the time she went missing. There is nothing.

And... he actually didn't report her missing, the folks at the family do did, I think I have that right, ,,,is that significant?? it seems to me it is, that he thought he had more time, perhaps, I dunno..!!.. but there is beginning to be a air of Picnic at Hanging Rock going on here, ....

 

[Notascreenname]

"While not categorically ruling out foul play, a midday update from police confirmed homicide units have not been tasked to the case."
https://www.news.com.au/national/vi...y/news-story/7148bcd84899c77ef740b4caee9a2937

“We haven’t ruled out anything – the focus is finding her,” Victoria Police Inspector Bob Heaney said."

 

[LollyPop]

Hi all, have just read through all of the posts. Have police searched the house? I can’t see anything that says they’ve searched her home, car etc.

 

[The man]

This case is very intriguing, though I am probably stating the obvious I think police have multiple leads or multiple suspects and are keeping their cards close to their chest as they don’t want to
Compromise the case. I don’t want to jump to conclusions her being alive are dwindling by the hour. I also am a massive fan of the fact her body may not even be in Ballarat and may be buried in another area

 

[imstilla.grandma]

Tim Watson-Munro described Ms Murphy's disappearance as a 'very odd case' and said nothing could be ruled out.

'Who's responsible I don't think we could say. As I understand it was a happy home life,' he told Daily Mail Australia

It could be that she was being stalked, if you have a regular pattern, stalkers love that and she had a regular pattern of running through that area.'

Mr Watson-Munro also said misadventure could be a possibility and noted locals in the area had raised concerns about unnoticeable mineshafts in the state forest.

'I think it's a big mistake with respect to those out there who want to be armchair detectives to read too much into people's body language,' he said

Criminal psychologist's theories on missing mum

Tim Watson-Munro described her disappearance as a 'very odd case' and said nothing could be ruled out.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[RoRo1]

This is very sad to read.

It is so sad.

 

[kapai1972]

Hello - joining here for the 1st time. Particularly interested in the Ballarat case due to the way it is being managed by Police in the media. From experience one would hope the Police a variety of investigations underway even if not disclosed to the media including: abduction, domestic harm, self-harm, wanting to disappear, animal/hazards in the area, and possibly collusion with another. Even though some might seem incredibly far fetched that is pretty standard. 3 critical parts of this investigation as released to media are 1. Cellphone ping (good comment here I see on cellph coverage); this would lead police to be scouring for any and all cctv and residential cameria footage in around the cellph tower site to within at least 1km. If the ping is true/correct it would/should be a focal point. 2. Linked to my first point but a 51yr old woman getting back into running, with no apparent hydration, sweat protection (bands, etc) is highly unlikely to run a half marathon based on the cellph tower ping circa 10km. I should know as I ran many an amateur marathon and halves before the knees gave up. This element of run preparedness can be explored further - and look at temp/weather on the day as to the reality/practicality and how long she would normally go on her runs. In addition it is likely it could be a walk/run style as she trains meaning he actual distance travelled would be less thus condensing search areas. Many missing people are often found very close to home, however the cellph ping throws that into doubt unless it is a harm/abduction crime. 3. Re-creating the event. If neighbours/community members often see her out running, it would be wise to recreate known/potential run pathways/locations she enjoyed. Timeline is key here to factor in run/walk speeds. Has she ever done any events? I always got a certificate with my time on it and this gives someone a pretty good idea of speed/travel. In summary interested to see how this evolves as 7 days now means it is looking very depressing for the family/friends, however again just how much is being released to the media will be a factor base don what Police are probably not saying at the moment.

 

[Algorithm]

I’m wondering whether her actual running/walking routes have been searched. Surely someone close would know her routes. I find it hard to believe a walker/runner would go off track unless for a toilet stop and that would only be a couple of meters behind a tree or similar.

 

[Chimera]

Is there any possibility she left of her own volition ?
In that scenario, she may be ok, but have personal reasons ?
Omo.

 

[Harry'sMum]

OMFG - so news.com.au have just updated their story including a headline of "Devastating Blow in Missing Mum Search" as breaking news - in the story they are still saying that the video of the woman running is her. Talk about media confusing the situation!! in a top story they are still quoting information that has long since become void! WTF happened to responsible media and journalism??? Although to be honest I don't think news.com.au has been "responsible journalism" for decades now...

Bloody hell.

https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/news/police-scale-back-search-for-missing-mum-samantha-murphy/news-story/dcde05b190b6913e506628304d713fab

 

[T-dawg420]

ABC Ballarat has put out an article that describes the terrain in which Samantha disappeared. They say it is a place where a person is unlikely to get lost, due to the interconnecting trails and roads that are all over the place.



Located 10 minutes from Ballarat's CBD, it is not a bushland you would typically get lost in.
It is not uncommon for people to be driving through the area.

Gold prospectors often comb the park in search of a lucky find, sightseers can see Ballarat from its lookout, and it is home to Australia's first trail constructed for people with dementia.
Joy riders speed down dirt tracks throwing up clouds of dust, rubbish is dumped in the scrub and stolen cars are set on fire here.

Historical mine shafts and shallow holes from Ballarat's gold exploring days are also dotted through parts of the bushland.
Police say these unused mines, scattered dams and the thick and rugged bush create challenging terrain to canvas.

Inside the bushland where Ballarat mother Samantha Murphy often went running

Dozens of police, SES and townspeople have scoured this park near Ballarat over the past week. Here is what's known about where the missing 51-year-old is thought to have gone running.

www.abc.net.au

The part in this article that mentions joy riders speeding down dirt track peaks my interest.

Originally when the now incorrect cctv footage was released I noted on here how some of the roads seem not very wide. After that footage was discounted I google mapped other possible locations she might have taken from her house. Side note unfortunately the daily mail gave away Samanthas home address by a picture and a map that was in fact turned on it’s side for some reason, so wasn’t too hard to actually find.

So I googled from her house to buninyong golf club walking, and one route takes you onto Cathie Street and then Boundary Road. These have street view and appear to be tracks not conducive for two way driving.

As much as any other possibility, Someone going fast through there in A vehicle and then somehow managing to hit a person walking or running doesn’t seem to be a big stretch IMO. It wouldn’t be the first time someone’s done that, then in a state of panic decided to hide the body away from where the incident took place And away from her normal route/s.

pics attached are just a possible walking route in the area I mentioned. As well as a street view pic of the Cathie St/Boundary Rd intersection.

 

[TootsieFootsie]

What do you think Toots?

There have been cases where it turned out that a complete stranger was responsible.

So far there isn't enough information for me to have a firm opinion on what I think happened.

I have no suspicions of any one person or scenario being behind Samantha disappearing.

I did read that today they'll be looking at her internet use.

 

[nightrider17]

The part in this article that mentions joy riders speeding down dirt track peaks my interest.

Originally when the now incorrect cctv footage was released I noted on here how some of the roads seem not very wide. After that footage was discounted I google mapped other possible locations she might have taken from her house. Side note unfortunately the daily mail gave away Samanthas home address by a picture and a map that was in fact turned on it’s side for some reason, so wasn’t too hard to actually find.

So I googled from her house to buninyong golf club walking, and one route takes you onto Cathie Street and then Boundary Road. These have street view and appear to be tracks not conducive for two way driving.

As much as any other possibility, Someone going fast through there in A vehicle and then somehow managing to hit a person walking or running doesn’t seem to be a big stretch IMO. It wouldn’t be the first time someone’s done that, then in a state of panic decided to hide the body away from where the incident took place And away from her normal route/s.

pics attached are just a possible walking route in the area I mentioned. As well as a street view pic of the Cathie St/Boundary Rd intersection.

Do You think its is possible for someone to have left the property on foot undetected by the property's own CCTV and access bushland?? OMO

Just wanted your thoughts on this possibility? JMO