Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat, 4 Feb 2024 *Arrest* #11

[SouthAussie]

The Truth About Stranger Homicide, and Who's Really at Risk

I read this link. I wonder why she doesn't mention how many women have been attacked and harassed (but not killed) when walking/running alone, and that can be a big contributor in why women are killed by strangers in lesser amounts than men. Because we tend to avoid those situations.

Eg: We make sure that our friends have opened their front door and safely stepped inside, before we drive off and leave them. We don't leave our friends alone at the pub. We go to many places together for company and safety in numbers.
We do this because we know we are (very unfortunately) vulnerable to attack.

imo

 

[BoysTown]

I just find it very hard to believe that the whole alleged murder scenario was solely done by the accused

Agree

 

[jjleroche]

I read this link. I wonder why she doesn't mention how many women have been attacked and harassed (but not killed) when walking/running alone, and that can be a big contributor in why women are killed by strangers in lesser amounts than men. Because we tend to avoid those situations.

Eg: We make sure that our friends have opened their front door and safely stepped inside, before we drive off and leave them. We don't leave our friends alone at the pub. We go to many places together for company and safety in numbers.
We do this because we know we are (very unfortunately) vulnerable to attack.

imo

Well I don't know why she didn't SouthAussie. I'm pretty sure she didn't make up her analysis, and I didn't post it for fun.

There are many expert opinions which can be found regarding the likelihood or otherwise of one being murdered by a stranger as opposed to someone known to them. Everything which I have found so far says the same thing - it is far more likely that someone will be murdered by someone known to them than a stranger. There may be others which disagree, but to date I have not found any. Hence I provided this one as as it provided both a forensic, and a psychological analysis.

I do not intend to comment further.

 

[Rocket333]

Agree

I don’t. He’s a big, strong guy who could carry her easily. It could’ve been all over in minutes. It may have even happened in his car hence the possible lack of much evidence on the ground in the bush. They arrested him and then charged him the next day. Was there (for example) enough blood in his car to indicate loss of life?

 

[Rocket333]

The HS reported that it had been suggested that some CCTV put PS on the police radar.

But I can see that, if PS sustained fingernail scratches from physically attacking Sam, his girlfriend may have been suspicious. Especially if he didn't come home that night/morning. And something like fingernail scratches may have led the police to believe that he deliberately attacked Sam.
If the police privately interviewed her, after seeing that CCTV, she may have revealed her suspicions.

imo


View attachment 524682

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/accused-killer-patrick-orren-stephenson-went-on-massive-bender-night-before-mum-went-missing/news-story/2626da44c0d68d2466fa4c62212e2dfe?amp

Your post reminded me of how Greg Lynn and his wife watched the UI show and his wife commented that the vehicle in it looked like Lynn’s (which it was). The police later commented that releasing an image of Lynn’s car was strategic and Lynn reacted by altering the vehicle. Was VicPol messaging PS’ network when they made the statement about looking out for a damaged vehicle? Did surveillance then catch PS reacting like Lynn did?

 

[Cliff Hardy]

You don't need to pick up a body to move it. If you have the body on its back and insert your arms underneath the shoulders you can pull the body along with the body's heals dragging. It isn't easy but it is much easier than picking them up and carrying them.

That's how Sarah Macdiarmid's body was moved from her car in the car park to the bushes. The police could see the drag marks in the grass caused by her heels.

 

[SouthAussie]

Well I don't know why she didn't. I'm pretty sure she didn't make up her analysis, and I didn't post it for fun.


I do not intend to comment further.

No worries. I wasn't trying to be obtuse.

I just think there is a big gaping hole in her analysis. Especially when she says "why don't we worry about men being alone" (or words to that effect). That's when I thought that it is because there are too many incidents of women being attacked by strangers - even if they are not killed. So we have been taught by our parents and others to keep ourselves safe, watch out for each other.

 

[Dotta]

So we have been taught by our parents and others to keep ourselves safe, watch out for each other.

Yep.
I remember being warned by my Mum when I was a girl.
And Dad got offended as
he was worried I would become a Men hater.
Hehehe
He needn't have worried hee hee
Memories, memories....

 

[Curiousobserver]

No worries. I wasn't trying to be obtuse.

I just think there is a big gaping hole in her analysis. Especially when she says "why don't we worry about men being alone" (or words to that effect). That's when I thought that it is because there are too many incidents of women being attacked by strangers - even if they are not killed. So we have been taught by our parents and others to keep ourselves safe, watch out for each other.

There are too many homicides period.

The analysis in the paper is pretty superficial- the year 2020 was a Covid year so stranger contact in cities, where most homicides occur, was dramatically reduced. She should have compared to a be Covid and Post Covid year. The surprising thing is the proportion of males vs females; >95% of homicide victims are men (In the USA)! My personal estimate would have been 20-30%.

Women all around must be behaving in ways that do not make them targets both inside and outside their homes.

 

[Scooby-Doo]

I don’t. He’s a big, strong guy who could carry her easily. It could’ve been all over in minutes. It may have even happened in his car hence the possible lack of much evidence on the ground in the bush. They arrested him and then charged him the next day. Was there (for example) enough blood in his car to indicate loss of life?

His car wasn't searched until after he was charged. He's a tall, lanky kid to still get her most likely flopped from the ground up quickly into his vehicle, so he wasn't seen by anyone.
We don't know how far away his vehicle was, and if he didn't receive help

 

[Justoneoftheguests]

Exactly. The police could not possibly be certain of that. IMO that repeated comment from Vicpol was made for a strategic reason.

I am aware that Ballarat has a reasonably large regional population by Australian standards - 130,000.

Ballarat Population 2024 | Population Australia

Nevertheless, I'm not at all convinced that the accused and Samantha did not know each other. My experience having lived in large regional locations informs my opinion. The children of both the Murphy and Stephenson families attended private colleges, and accordingly are likely to have attended functions where these colleges paired up for various events. The children of both families were of similar ages. IMO at the very least, they would have known who those from the other family were. IMO they are likely to have moved in similar circles.

The families both owned and operated businesses in Ballarat, and had done for many years. Quite aside from school-related connections, I find it very difficult to believe that the senior Murphy and Stephenson family members did not know each other. The various business/community related organisations and associated functions would also, in all likelihood bring them into contact over the years.

Additionally Orren Stephenson, the accused's father, played Australian Rules Football for the Richmond Football Club

Orren's family affair

Orren Stephenson had three kids by the time he was 20, now he's reveling in sharing his AFL revival with those closest to him

www.afl.com.au

Samantha was known to be an avid Richmond fan. IMO that is possibly another reason whereby an additional contact between the families may have existed.

All MOO

In an area with 130,000 people it is absolutely possible they would not know or even recognise each other. Even considering my kids schools (600-1500 kids in each) there would be hundreds of kids I wouldn’t even recognise by face. Obviously plenty I would but probably more that I wouldn’t. Those kids share siblings, sporting teams, school and the local area with me/my kids but there is still plenty of room to have had minimal/no meaningful or memorable contact. That’s only 600-1500 kids- if we were to expand out to 130,000 the majority would be people I didn’t know/recognise. We would probably be connected by a degree or two of separation but I wouldn’t be able to pick them as “familiar” in a line up!

 

[Rocket333]

His car wasn't searched until after he was charged. He's a tall, lanky kid to still get her most likely flopped from the ground up quickly into his vehicle, so he wasn't seen by anyone.
We don't know how far away his vehicle was, and if he didn't receive help

OR. His car was searched between being arrested and being charged.
He’s something like 6’6 and muscular. He could carry her. He may have even got her in his car whilst still alive. She may never have been on the ground.
If his vehicle was near it could’ve been over quickly which makes sense given the location and risk of company. It always appeared to me that the scene looked clean.

 

[Warshawski]

I don't know why. If Greg Lynn can kill two people, transport them elsewhere, conceal their bodies so well that the police had to be led to the area in order to find what was left of their remains, stay off the police radar for months, I don't know why PS couldn't have done similar with one victim.

imo

For me,there is a big difference between the two situations.

1) Greg Lynn was alone in the wilderness with 2 dead bodies. He had plenty of time to plan his actions, load the bodies & transport them under cover of darkness (presumably) and total obscurity, to a place where he felt comfortable to leave them, before heading back to the sanctity of his home 500 km away.
He then had some 20 months of ‘perceived freedom’ to reconsider his decisions, actions, placements & stories - going back to the scenes of his abhorrent behaviour to make doubly sure in his mind that he had all his i’s dotted & t’s crossed appropriately, to neatly match his murderous ego.

2) Based on the information we currently have available to us, Samantha left her home on the outskirts of Ballarat around 7am for a walk / run / jog ( whatever it was ).

I’m sure locals can correct me, but imo she was not in the wilderness. She lived in an area where there were other homes on small acreages, there was a bitumen road running by, other people jogged / ran in the area ( we had confusion initially with one such person on camera being confused for SM), was close to a national park with trails that were used by other exercise enthusiasts.
We’re told that within an HOUR (8am) Samantha was Dead - deliberately murdered somewhere in the Mt Clear area ( locals ??) about 6 or 7 km from her home. To my knowledge, Mt Clear is a busy area with some 15,000 + cars traversing each day. I imagine there must be cameras along all those busy roads.
After a month, a 22 year old, gainfully employed local man from ( by all accounts) a respected, close & supportive family (he worked in family business) was Charged with her murder, although there is no sign of her body some 7months later.

* When Sam disappeared / was murdered, there was no cover of darkness; there was a very slim chance of being inconspicuous - in either being there, the ‘doing of’ or the removal of her from the area; there was a very slim chance that someone wouldn’t hear something, even her scream; there will have been very little time to formulate a plan of action & to then put it in place. SM was not a small lady. is young, fit and tall, but I still think he would’ve found it a challenging task to load her body into a vehicle, particularly when stressed.
Then to find a suitable spot to conceal her body, totally unseen - concealed so well that it’s still not been found.
is a local electrician, and a young ‘rager’. .. imo he would have to be reasonably well known / recognisable. He didn’t have the luxury of driving 500 km back to home obscurity. … well -
- maybe he did go AWOL for a couple of days to dispose of her body - have they searched anywhere but local ?
He was apparently under surveillance for 2 weeks - did he act normally & go to work as usual in that time ?
Does anyone know if his GF was at the house when he was arrested ?

All MOO / thoughts and apologies for the long post… so much to ponder.

 

[Scooby-Doo]

The final ping if it exists hasn't been refuted by police is not consistent with police allegations that Samantha was killed at Mt Clear.
It is circumstantial evidence that she may have been alive later that day in a different location. So police would need to establish how this ping occurred, otherwise there is reasonable doubt that she was murdered at Mt Clear.
If the ping doesn't exist, they don't have this problem - they can allege that the accused disabled Samantha's phone when he killed her

But maybe Samantha didn't have her phone that day ?

At the first property, they publicly search. In the first dam they publicly look at. And a camera crew are on hand to capture perfect photos of the phone in its wallet, for all to see.
And the police high-fiving and jumping for joy, waving to the media helicopter etc..
Despite all this, it seems the accused was meticulous in hiding the body, murder weapon, and other evidence relating to the crime.
But totally careless about the phone. There are no witnesses or informers we know of. How did police suddenly arrive at this location? Where were all the failed attempts at other properties along this road, or other roads? Did they just get lucky?

Or was it staged?

 

[Warshawski]

I don’t. He’s a big, strong guy who could carry her easily. It could’ve been all over in minutes. It may have even happened in his car hence the possible lack of much evidence on the ground in the bush. They arrested him and then charged him the next day. Was there (for example) enough blood in his car to indicate loss of life?

Sorry Rocket333, but he wasn’t arrested until a month after, and I don’t think his vehicle was checked until after his arrest.

 

[Dotta]

The final ping if it exists hasn't been refuted by police is not consistent with police allegations that Samantha was killed at Mt Clear.
It is circumstantial evidence that she may have been alive later that day in a different location. So police would need to establish how this ping occurred, otherwise there is reasonable doubt that she was murdered at Mt Clear.
If the ping doesn't exist, they don't have this problem - they can allege that the accused disabled Samantha's phone when he killed her

But maybe Samantha didn't have her phone that day ?

At the first property, they publicly search. In the first dam they publicly look at. And a camera crew are on hand to capture perfect photos of the phone in its wallet, for all to see.
And the police high-fiving and jumping for joy, waving to the media helicopter etc..
Despite all this, it seems the accused was meticulous in hiding the body, murder weapon, and other evidence relating to the crime.
But totally careless about the phone. There are no witnesses or informers we know of. How did police suddenly arrive at this location? Where were all the failed attempts at other properties along this road, or other roads? Did they just get lucky?

Or was it staged?

The last ping was near the dam where it was found.
It pinged late afternoon (around 5 pm)

Did Police state that it was time the accused was on his way to conceal the body?

They were searching a big park there.

So much time has passed
that I am forgetting the details


The map in the link

Samantha Murphy: Is a phone in the mud a breakthrough on the mystery of missing Ballarat mother?

amp-theage-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[touch]

The final ping if it exists hasn't been refuted by police is not consistent with police allegations that Samantha was killed at Mt Clear.

A "ping" is something a phone does automatically. It doesn't need a person to be actively using the phone to cause a ping. There is no inconsistency with the allegations that she was killed at Mt Clear. The phone would still be pinging phone towers whether she was alive at the time or not.