Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat, 4 Feb 2024 *Arrest* #11

[Trooper]

Great mapping Doc. His home, her home, Woowookarung, the dam and the known search areas are in the red circle, right? Enfield State Park expands into the blue. Do we know of any searches occurring beyond the red or blue areas?

One bit of info none of us has is, what obligations did he have to meet on that Sunday? what ones did he not attend? ( perhaps because he was out of the area without a rational explanation ).. we know what Samantha's schedule was, running for training for the !/2 Marathon at Halls Gap in April, out and back on a planned course due to time restrains, back home to shower and change, and then off to a brunch , an 'important brunch' with friends ....

Sunday was his one of two days off, like lots of blokes he would have had jobs to do, chores to tackle, people to see, arrangements his girlfriend may had made, ... we don't know how long he had to attend to his other matter of murdering women in the forest, ... a geoprofiler would have that down to centimeters, ( inches, ) how far he could go with what time he had, ..

Killers work on a 24 hour day, just like us... they have to set out from home ( start point) and return home ( finish point ) .... just like us... the sun sets for them the same time as it does for us.

 

[Trooper]

Thanks, you can have a play around with it here

Draw a circle with a radius on a map

www.mapdevelopers.com

I've been looking for a spatial map. ..the ones that have the elevation and gullies, and creeks and whatnot , like what an eagle would see flying over Mt Clear...

a spatial map - Bing

Intelligent search from Bing makes it easier to quickly find what you’re looking for and rewards you.

www.bing.com

 

[SouthAussie]

One bit of info none of us has is, what obligations did he have to meet on that Sunday? what ones did he not attend? ( perhaps because he was out of the area without a rational explanation ).. we know what Samantha's schedule was, running for training for the !/2 Marathon at Halls Gap in April, out and back on a planned course due to time restrains, back home to shower and change, and then off to a brunch , an 'important brunch' with friends .... Sunday was his one of two days off, like lots of blokes he would have had jobs to do, chores to tackle, people to see, arrangements his girlfriend may had made, ... we don't know how long he had to attend to his other matter of murdering women in the forest, ... a geoprofiler would have that down to centimeters, ( inches, ) how far he could go with what time he had, ..

Killers work on a 24 hour day, just like us... they have to set out from home ( start point) and return home ( finish point ) .... just like us... the sun sets for them the same time as it does for us.

I just finished a book (The Murder of Kelsey Berreth) where Kelsey's partner was 3 hours late for the Thanksgiving meal at his mum's place because he was busy murdering Kelsey, stuffing her in a bag, cleaning all the blood from himself, and 'caring for' their one-year old daughter while he did all of this. His brother was ticked off that he was so late.

Makes me wonder if PS had his phone off for all of the time he took. Did his girlfriend try to call him to see where he was? Having a phone off for a period of murder and cleanup is just as telling as leaving a trail of pings. imo

 

[emirates1957]

'So the defendant was recovering from a drug and alcohol fueled bender.'... this is not , so far, a designated concrete occurrence. Apparently, he attended a birthday party for an 80 yr old the Saturday night, he had been filmed on a drug and alcohol interlude back in January, these two events should not be conflated. at this point.

Not to say, that 80 yr old's birthday parties should not be alcohol and drug fuelled, I certainly intend mine to be, and much more, it's a free country, pay your taxes, do what you want, but generally speaking , they are usually staid and subdued affairs, on the whole....

Hmmm…date/time and address please.

 

[Marie A]

Terrific map, DR S..... If I had to throw a dart at it, I'd go north west or north, not east, not straight west, not south...

But if I was a geoprofiler, I'd know his habits, his childhood footprints, his teenage rambles, his adult explorations , his friends habitats, his work patterns.. etc..... and probably get a completely different direction!

Thanks for these maps drsleuth.
These are such good points Trooper.
I can’t help but feel that they need to interview or re-interview as many of his close mates as possible and his more current friends as well as childhood friends to ask where he went camping/ what areas he knew well/ what was his comfort zone.
He must have taken her to a remote rural area he could drive to from memory knowing it was not well-traveled / he would basically be alone with no eyes on him to dispose of the body.
Then he had to dump her very heavy body (dead weight) by removing it from the back of his ute and dragging it somewhere to dump- dropped from or rolled off an overlook? A mine shaft he was familiar with very close to a place he could park?
Weighted down in deeper water near a place he could park?
(assuming he didn’t dismember her)
Did he simply drive to an area he knew was thoroughly remote and drag her body by the legs 100 feet into the woods and leave? That seems less likely but possible.

 

[Rocket333]

Makes me wonder if PS had his phone off for all of the time he took. Did his girlfriend try to call him to see where he was? Having a phone off for a period of murder and cleanup is just as telling as leaving a trail of pings. imo

I’d say he would’ve had his phone off. Sam’s was turned off so he’d have his off too. I mean why would he switch hers off but not his own (if he was even carrying his phone).

Two things:
Can you do mobile triangulations with switched off phones?

If he recorded the crime, he would’ve had to have used something other than his switched off phone.

 

[SouthAussie]

I’d say he would’ve had his phone off. Sam’s was turned off so he’d have his off too. I mean why would he switch hers off but not his own (if he was even carrying his phone).

Two things:
Can you do mobile triangulations with switched off phones?

If he recorded the crime, he would’ve had to have used something other than his switched off phone.

With only one tower working that day (if Sam's relative was correct) there would have been no triangulation.
You need three working towers to triangulate. And at least two towers to get a better phone position. Which is why, I think, the police have been searching in one big tower sector.

And there is none of that if the phone is not pinging (if it is off).

imo

 

[Warshawski]

He may of dumped the phone on a different day. How they found the phone is a story in itself.

I thought it interesting that her phone was switched OFF when Mick tried to ring it that morning . … suggesting had the presence of mind to do that, and I imagine therefore to switch his own phone off as well (including locations etc) Pretty clear head for having been out on the town til all hours IMO (speaking from considerable experience - oh minus the drugs )
Her phone data would’ve been pretty quickly obtained.

There would have been a lot of cross-checking of data from all phones in the area (there is software that does this ) and I’m presuming that turned up a match for both her & phones in proximity of each other at Mt Clear, and perhaps others as well.
It perhaps also matched the time of her phone being switched off, with ’ being switched off around same time.
Next interesting thing for me was that Samantha’s phone was said to Ping at 5pm near the Buninyong Golf Club.( if that’s at MT BUNINYONG RD, BUNINYONG its a major tower in the area shared by all networks)
Said to be it’s ‘final ping’. I think Buninyong would be approx 10 mins drive ( depending on where they were at Mt Clear, which seems pretty closely guarded information as I’d imagine locals would know ‘where it happened) and depending if he took a direct route.
So what was that phone doing / where was it travelling between say 8.30 am - 5.00 pm when it Pinged in Buninyong ?

My thoughts are that he took her body ‘somewhere’ first, but definitely not in the Southerly direction.
I’m inclined to suggest ‘pick one’ :
Where are all the mine shafts in Ballarat?

I think her phone was the last thing he dealt with, and he used that as a decoy …. He’s switched her phone on deliberately so it would Ping in the Buninyong area & then turned it off again.
He’s then ditched her phone along the way out of Buninyong toward Mt Mercer (had a pee stop & threw it in the dam) He’s a big lad & will’ve had a good arm, but it didn’t quite reach the middle of the dam, so as the waters dried up it became visible in the mud.
I think the owners of the dam will have seen it and alerted police, as police went there expecting to find a phone imo - and it would’ve been uppermost in their minds who’s it would be.

Taking a drive on a direct route from Mt Clear, through Buninyong, Mt Mercer, Bannockburn & back to Scotsburn you’d do it in 1hr 30 mins (locals ?) with no hold ups. … but I don’t think he started that particular trip at Mt Clear. I think he’d probably been home, around & about - then turned His phone Off again to do a drive to dispose of her phone later that afternoon (Daylight Saving time in Feb in Vic - sunset wasn’t until 8.30 pm)

Sorry for the overly long post, I’m just trying to put some thoughts together.
To me this seems a very strange situation on so many levels.
However many a deviate psycho has blended perfectly into society & appeared ‘normal’ - until ..

All just my personal opinions.

 

[Scooby-Doo]

If the phone was at Mt Clear it would have pinged other towers though. (If they were in operation, and we know they were, because the police allege her phone / watch pinged Mt Clear at 8am).

 

[Warshawski]

Are all of the search sites to date south of Woowookarung Park?

I just did a search and all appear to be south, and not north or due east or west (correct me if I’m wrong).

That’s what I’ve deducted Rocket, and personally I think that’s a mistake ( as you say, there are other coordinates)

 

[callmehenry]

From the time she was murdered until the alarm was raised was , 8am to around 12.30pm - 1.00pm.... he has to tidy up, he has to get out and back, and he has no way of knowing how long he has, he doesn't know if she is on her outward bound track or her homeward track back on her run, he doesn't know where she lives. He didn't use the Western Highway, because that has CCTV all along it, and some of those ring roads around Ballarat do, too... he has to know what he's doing, he can't dart hither and yon, he has to have a definite destination in mind, perhaps. As soon as that alarm goes, he has to look calm and ordinary, just goin about his Sunday chores, whatever they were, he possibly had obligations and arrangements of his own to attend, ...

Apologies if already mentioned but we don’t know that he didn’t know her routine. He may have been well aware of how much time he had

 

[Warshawski]

They also searched Brown Hill & Black Hill & Nerrina

They have searched areas including Buninyong, Ballarat East, Mount Clear, Brown Hill, Nerrina, Black Hill, Scotchmans Lead, Mount Helen and the Woowookurung Regional Park.

No new leads and a tight lid on protracted investigation — what we know about Samantha Murphy's disappearance

A "top priority" investigation, numerous police interviews and a supportive community effort have been features of a search in the month since Ballarat mum Samantha Murphy disappeared.

www.abc.net.au

View attachment 528327

There’s a lot of bodies of water around the area which I’ve considered, but I think they’re all too calm & are local social hang outs, picnic areas, water sports etc.
However my mind goes back to someone ‘this forum or another’ who talked about finding something at a River & handing it in somewhere…. I wonder how long it takes for information to actually find its way to the ‘right’ people in these investigations?

 

[Scooby-Doo]

I thought it interesting that her phone was switched OFF when Mick tried to ring it that morning . … suggesting had the presence of mind to do that, and I imagine therefore to switch his own phone off as well (including locations etc) Pretty clear head for having been out on the town til all hours IMO (speaking from considerable experience - oh minus the drugs )
Her phone data would’ve been pretty quickly obtained.

There would have been a lot of cross-checking of data from all phones in the area (there is software that does this ) and I’m presuming that turned up a match for both her & phones in proximity of each other at Mt Clear, and perhaps others as well.
It perhaps also matched the time of her phone being switched off, with ’ being switched off around same time.
Next interesting thing for me was that Samantha’s phone was said to Ping at 5pm near the Buninyong Golf Club.( if that’s at MT BUNINYONG RD, BUNINYONG its a major tower in the area shared by all networks)
Said to be it’s ‘final ping’. I think Buninyong would be approx 10 mins drive ( depending on where they were at Mt Clear, which seems pretty closely guarded information as I’d imagine locals would know ‘where it happened) and depending if he took a direct route.
So what was that phone doing / where was it travelling between say 8.30 am - 5.00 pm when it Pinged in Buninyong ?

My thoughts are that he took her body ‘somewhere’ first, but definitely not in the Southerly direction.
I’m inclined to suggest ‘pick one’ :
Where are all the mine shafts in Ballarat?

I think her phone was the last thing he dealt with, and he used that as a decoy …. He’s switched her phone on deliberately so it would Ping in the Buninyong area & then turned it off again.
He’s then ditched her phone along the way out of Buninyong toward Mt Mercer (had a pee stop & threw it in the dam) He’s a big lad & will’ve had a good arm, but it didn’t quite reach the middle of the dam, so as the waters dried up it became visible in the mud.
I think the owners of the dam will have seen it and alerted police, as police went there expecting to find a phone imo - and it would’ve been uppermost in their minds who’s it would be.

Taking a drive on a direct route from Mt Clear, through Buninyong, Mt Mercer, Bannockburn & back to Scotsburn you’d do it in 1hr 30 mins (locals ?) with no hold ups. … but I don’t think he started that particular trip at Mt Clear. I think he’d probably been home, around & about - then turned His phone Off again to do a drive to dispose of her phone later that afternoon (Daylight Saving time in Feb in Vic - sunset wasn’t until 8.30 pm)

Sorry for the overly long post, I’m just trying to put some thoughts together.
To me this seems a very strange situation on so many levels.
However many a deviate psycho has blended perfectly into society & appeared ‘normal’ - until ..

All just my personal opinions.

The final ping if it exists (hasn't been refuted by police) is not consistent with police allegations that Samantha was killed at Mt Clear.
It is circumstantial evidence that she may have been alive later that day in a different location.
So police would need to establish how this ping occurred, otherwise there is reasonable doubt that she was murdered at Mt Clear.
If the ping doesn't exist, they don't have this problem - they can allege that the accused disabled Samantha's phone when he killed her

Similarly, the 5pm ping doesn't prove she was alive in Buninyong at 5pm. But it opens the door of possibility.
Unless police can prove to the court that the phone was not in Samantha's possession at the time, and that it was in possession of the accused, then there is reasonable doubt that she was murdered earlier at Mt Clear.



But the 5pm Buninyong last phone ping, how did this happen if the phone was in the dam at 5pm? Or was it 5pm when the phone was tossed into the dam?

Did Samantha really take the phone / wallet with her on the run? Or just her watch?

The reaction from the police when they found her phone is still bizarre to me. This phone thing really has me thinking.

The final ping, though, still seems incongruous with any of the theories going round.

But why throw the phone at all?

As I mentioned before. If he is on the way to disposing of the body, why risk a stop and not just dispose of the phone with the body?

If he is on the way back, and presumably realised he still had the phone, why choose that location when he could easily destroy and hide the phone in a bin back in town, a mine shaft or destroy it completely?
Police (what we know)still have not found her watch

Have police done a tower dump from Buninyong tower to locate all devices within pinging distance (entering / leaving) of the dam location on the morning/afternoon Samantha's disappeared?

Is the accused the owner of one of these devices? What about his close contacts?

But If the accused still had Samantha with him, the smart thing would be to disable the phone and dispose of it with her body at the same time.
Stopping and chucking it into a random dam only increases the chances of getting caught.

And we don't know for sure it was the
accused who put the phone in the dam.

 

[Rocket333]

The final ping if it exists (hasn't been refuted by police) is not consistent with police allegations that Samantha was killed at Mt Clear.
It is circumstantial evidence that she may have been alive later that day in a different location.
So police would need to establish how this ping occurred, otherwise there is reasonable doubt that she was murdered at Mt Clear.

Are you suggesting that the Chief Commissioner is bluffing or in doubt or doesn’t know his job?

“Shane Patton said police would allege Murphy was murdered at Mount Clear on 4 February, the day she disappeared.

He would not disclose how she was allegedly killed, other than to describe the alleged murder as an ‘intentional act’.”

“We’re saying this was a deliberate attack on Samantha,” Patton alleged.

Samantha Murphy: Victoria police allege man murdered Ballarat woman in ‘deliberate attack’

Man, 22, faced court on one count of murder on Thursday, a month after 51-year-old was last seen leaving home

www.theguardian.com

 

[Warshawski]

Sorry I disagree, pretty sure when this article as written ( Sun 3rd March ) , that police believed Sam was likely dead & they had PS in their sights. He was arrested on March the 6th ) & it was reported that they had been watching him for 2 weeks from memory?

They didn't just magically come up with PS overnight IMO

Feb 23rd 2024 Vic Pol announce a new search in the Mount Clear based on new mobile phone data.

No new leads and a tight lid on protracted investigation — what we know about Samantha Murphy's disappearance

A "top priority" investigation, numerous police interviews and a supportive community effort have been features of a search in the month since Ballarat mum Samantha Murphy disappeared.

www.abc.net.au

Chronology of events​

• February 4, 7am, Samantha Murphy leaves Ballarat East home to go for a run
• February 4, 11am, Ms Murphy's family sounds the alarm when she doesn't return from her run in time for a brunch
• February 5 - 10, Ground searches occur over days throughout the forest and outer Ballarat suburbs
• February 10, Search is scaled down by Victoria Police who confirm Ms Murphy's disappearance is being treated as suspicious
• February 23, Victoria Police announce a renewed search in the Mount Clear area based on new mobile phone data
• February 24, Hundreds of people join together to search through the outskirts of Ballarat

I think that’s fair enough Doc.
Interestingly that new search on 23rd Feb falls 2 weeks prior to his arrest.
Is that when they finally got the ‘cross matched’ data between both of their phones ? Wow - I thought technology today would have that much quicker. .. but then again, they weren’t initially considering foul play so may not have requested the phone data until 10th when they announced her disappearance as suspicious ( still a long time for the intel imo )
But being in the same place at the same time is not enough to make a murder charge stick - I wonder what it was that made them pounce on 6th March.

 

[Rocket333]

As I mentioned before. If he is on the way to disposing of the body, why risk a stop and not just dispose of the phone with the body?

If he is on the way back, and presumably realised he still had the phone, why choose that location when he could easily destroy and hide the phone in a bin back in town, a mine shaft or destroy it completely?
Police (what we know)still have not found her watch

I think about this too as it doesn’t compute.
One thought I’ve had is that after disposing of the body he still had Sam’s phone in his car later in the day and it was seen by someone else (ie a passenger). As the phone was in a (feminine) teal coloured wallet with ID it’d really catch attention (especially if the passenger was a female). If the passenger grabbed it, opened it and out of curiosity turned it on (all possible within seconds), there’s your ping. He could have then panicked, grabbed it back and pulled over to pee or whatever in order to toss it in the first available dam.

Just my thought.

 

[Warshawski]

I just finished a book (The Murder of Kelsey Berreth) where Kelsey's partner was 3 hours late for the Thanksgiving meal at his mum's place because he was busy murdering Kelsey, stuffing her in a bag, cleaning all the blood from himself, and 'caring for' their one-year old daughter while he did all of this. His brother was ticked off that he was so late.

Makes me wonder if PS had his phone off for all of the time he took. Did his girlfriend try to call him to see where he was? Having a phone off for a period of murder and cleanup is just as telling as leaving a trail of pings. imo

Well said

 

[Rocket333]

I think that’s fair enough Doc.
Interestingly that new search on 23rd Feb falls 2 weeks prior to his arrest.
Is that when they finally got the ‘cross matched’ data between both of their phones ? Wow - I thought technology today would have that much quicker. .. but then again, they weren’t initially considering foul play so may not have requested the phone data until 10th when they announced her disappearance as suspicious ( still a long time for the intel imo )
But being in the same place at the same time is not enough to make a murder charge stick - I wonder what it was that made them pounce on 6th March.

By the 4th March;

“Police revealed they have been wading through 12,000 hours of CCTV and on Monday confirmed they have 770 pieces of information.”

Within one month. That blows my mind.

Re: the pouncing

“Mr Gregory expected there could be a team of up to 100 people trawling through the phone data and then chasing down the people identified.
"They're going to have to find the people, ask what they're doing in the area and follow up.

Could the police have already contacted PS about his movements due to his phone proximity & activity in the area on the day?
Or did surveillance & bugging determine the need to move in when they did? The initial suppression order bounced between concerns for his mental health and his dad’s privacy. Maybe he was becoming agitated or flighty.

Former detective warns volunteer searchers may be hurting police investigation into Samantha Murphy

Volunteers have been desperately searching for missing mother Samantha Murphy but their efforts could unfortunately be hampering the police, a former detective tells 7.30.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Warshawski]

With only one tower working that day (if Sam's relative was correct) there would have been no triangulation.
You need three working towers to triangulate. And at least two towers to get a better phone position. Which is why, I think, the police have been searching in one big tower sector.

And there is none of that if the phone is not pinging (if it is off).

imo

I understand that Sam’s relative said that about the Towers being out, but I have to wonder of its timely accuracy ( for example - how would he know ).

There was a huge power outage about a week after she went missing that knocked out towers. I can’t recall when relative made his statements, but I know they got silenced pretty quickly after they suggested foul play - possibly when police determined her disappearance was suspicious.

 

[Scooby-Doo]

Are you suggesting that the Chief Commissioner is bluffing or in doubt or doesn’t know his job?

“Shane Patton said police would allege Murphy was murdered at Mount Clear on 4 February, the day she disappeared.

He would not disclose how she was allegedly killed, other than to describe the alleged murder as an ‘intentional act’.”

“We’re saying this was a deliberate attack on Samantha,” Patton alleged.

Samantha Murphy: Victoria police allege man murdered Ballarat woman in ‘deliberate attack’

Man, 22, faced court on one count of murder on Thursday, a month after 51-year-old was last seen leaving home

www.theguardian.com

The police won't be telling us everything. We don't know what new info they have collected now seven months on..
It's not enough just to prove that the accused and Samantha were in the same place at the same time.

They need to also prove (beyond reasonable doubt) that nobody else was there.
Questions, how can they do that? Just because no other phone pinged?
Someone else could have been there but didn't carry a phone

They need to prove intent.

This requires a motive, or other explanation (beyond reasonable doubt) which proves the accused acted deliberately or with the knowledge that his actions were likely to cause Samantha's death.

Again, how can they do this without an eyewitness or physical evidence or a confession?

They need to prove that the accused actions did in fact cause Samantha's death, and that she did not die from other causes.
Again, how do you do that without a body?
(Defence: yeah, I came across her body, she was already dead, I panicked and left. Someone else must have moved her body).

This is what will be playing out ...